Question for everyone! I am in a very interesting position and would like your input.. Using an well know online site yesterday I put $100 on a 24 team parlay.. I left the last 10 spots open and won all 14 plays yesterday.. With that said I crunched the numbers for the remaining 10 picks in the parlay - if I were to pick only ML with greater than -500 and hit the remaining 10 the payout is over 100K.. How would you choose the games? Only home favorites greater than -500 ML? Thanks for the input..
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Not taking over by any means. I promote an open forum with many insights and opinions, whether they be conflicting or not. As long as the information is relevant, I feel it can be utilized. As far as the referees go, I'm trying to find a way in which you can find out which guys are blowing the whistle before the game. I know you can in the NFL, but I haven't found anything that provides this information as far as NCAA BB games. There are sites where the info is out there as far as how certain refs call the games on an average basis. They provide Foul Deviations and Home Team margin (-/+). I DO think that knowing what refs are going to be blowing the whistle in each particular game can provide some sort of advantage on ATS and ML wagers. If you know their trends then there is a good chance that you can expose some part of the results of each game. Not sure how much of a percentage of the game can be capped by this angle, but I do know that it is important and the market of that info being available isn't tapped into and known. Anyone with insight to that as well, by all means, provide your opinion on whether or not you think that Vegas has that info and if they include it in their line, or if they don't if the line can be taken advantage of because of it...Comment -
So what's your advice for me and this situation..
Question for everyone! I am in a very interesting position and would like your input.. Using an well know online site yesterday I put $100 on a 24 team parlay.. I left the last 10 spots open and won all 14 plays yesterday.. With that said I crunched the numbers for the remaining 10 picks in the parlay - if I were to pick only ML with greater than -500 and hit the remaining 10 the payout is over 100K.. How would you choose the games? Only home favorites greater than -500 ML? Thanks for the input..Comment -
If the payout is 100k be very selective in the plays you make even if it takes you 3 months at one pick a week.. there will be games or matches that come up that will be no-brainers for example today i see two games memphis -350 v rutgers or uconn -500 v temple not saying the teams are locks but just an example of what to look for.Comment -
also as tiredpro said earlier make sure the team you back is movtivated to play the game.. this is probably the biggest factor in determining the outcome of the winning and losing when playing moneylines favs -300 and higherComment -
Thanks for the advice! I feel like I am in a very unusual position so just taking all the advice I can get.. It's not everyday you are 10 big favorites away from 100K..
I just checked to see what 10 ML's at -300 to -500 would be rather than -500 to -1400 (this is where the 100K came from) and the total is over 240K
This is crazy!Comment -
Great thread. Does anyone know of the best books that offer -300+ money lines?Comment -
I'm also going to add that perhaps following a proven capper in the forum and taking their ATS plays on the ML. For example, a profitable capper ATS likes a play at -7. Maybe taking the money line with plays like that would be profitable. Food for thought...Comment -
Thanks for all the advice! Looking forward to sharing my picks as we count down from 10!Comment -
Please don't share every pick that you are going to make. Make a separate post for that. So far this post has given insight and opinions, not picks. I would like for it to remain that way and I'm sure others would as well. If youre that close to making 100k+ from 100 I'm sure others will be interested in a separate thread. Please bring that there...Thank You and Good Luck in your playComment -
I'm not knocking a $100 wager, but I personally don't think it's enough to even consider hedging until you get to maybe game 19 or 20. If you have time, you will get some match ups over the next month where one team will be significantly better than another and all of the factors you should consider will be there. Stay patient.......ten winners is definitely possible. I won 32 straight games this past football season before my first loss........for all you spread bettors, when is the last time you won 32 straight games against the spread ? Look for really good coaches who demand and get the most out of their teams. They are out there. Programs like Duke, Louisville, Florida.......those guys get it. When you watch a game you can see which team would crawl across crushed glass for their coach. Those are the teams you need to follow and just wait for them to get matched against an inferior opponent. Good luck and get that 24 teamer to the house.Comment -
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Great point Husky. If you like a team at -10 you should love them to only have to win the game.......sure you're going to have to pay the rich juice to play them, but how many games do you get back doored on and how many games would you have won if your team could of just made one more shot or one more free throw. At the end of the day you are just trying to pick the team that will win the game.......if you can't decide, you let it go and wait.Comment -
Just can't get that Syracuse game off my mind........there used to be a local in my town who used to say never bet Syracuse at home in college hoop. He has passed on but if he were still around he would remind you when you call. Note to self........when your local tells you to stay off a game or a team, listen to him. Boeheim........another coach made to look good by great players. Can't trust him.Comment -
being a former d1 college athlete i felt our team was always more focused in road games. you follow a strict schedule that you do not have at home, no parties or GF distractions to worry about. every hour is planed out with dinner, meetings, and film! as long as the home team does have a distinct home court advantage i have know problem backing a team on the road..Comment -
Keep us updated on how things go with your 24 team parlay... I one time tried doing a 25 team open parlay and got up to 24 before losing....Comment -
Good stuff. Last night all of the short ROAD favorites in the minus 180 to minus 300sh range won except one game. Not saying they covered, but they won the game. Not saying it's an auto-play every night, but it appears that each of those situations is at least worth a look. Last night, Michigan State fit this criteria perfectly as an example. A superior team playing on the road against a weaker team who's home court advantage is not that strong.Comment -
Does anyone know anyone who would want to buy my 24 team parlay? It's only 5 picks away from closing out.. If you were to take -135 ML on the remaining 5 games the payout is 500K..Comment -
Beat it bro...you're not 5 games away from winning Cok-o-la and you know it. If you were you wouldn't be trying to sell shit, you'd be trying to figure out the best way for you to win it. You have 11 posts on here and BANG right away you're almost in for a 100k+ payout. Kick rocks and lick cocks bro...that's the only thing that you really are good at. You didn't decide to take LaTech last night? Oh, miraculously the only one that loses you just "decided against it"...Pbbbttttt....Ya, I'll buy it. I'll give you the 4lbs of shit that is cooped up in my intestines right now I'll package it nicely for you in a double Ziploc baggie with the yellow and blue seal that makes green...Bounce!!!Comment -
My friend I went 5 for 5 last night and did not take la tech.. If you would like to see I would be glad to share with you.. I am 19 for 19 - the payouts with lines at -1000 for the remaining 5 is 100K but with lines at -135 it's 500KComment -
I obviously can't figure out how to add a screenComment -
Yeah dude. That's didn't work out too well.Comment -
Anyone know how to post a screen shot without it turning into HTML?Comment -
I hear ya TiredPro. This thread was providing great insight and opinion beyond what I imagined it would. Then to see a post like that infiltrate it and take it far off of its course kinda is aggravating. I'm sure its commonplace with a lot of good threads around here. I appreciate everyone who has given insight regardless of the eyesore of those kind of posts, and I just hope it doesn't go dead because of it...GL to you TP, hope you find some profits to pad your pockets this weekend...Comment -
Anyone have any good systems for favorites using sdql in killersports? I know there are a few on this forum that are great with finding subsets of certain angles that hit at a very high rate.
As of right now, it sounds like using money lines of -300 to around -1000 seems to be how the successful money line players in this forum are going about things. Any other insight you could provide us guys? (Talking to those who use money lines as their sole way of wagering).
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Killer sports is a website/database where one can enter in sdql code to get results of certain situations over multiple seasons. For example, if one wanted to know the record of NBA home favorites of -7 or more, one can get the results in seconds. It just requires that one knows how to enter in code correctly.Comment -
Tired pro. I would be interested in how you arrive at your money line wagers?Comment -
As I mentioned previously, my money line plays are currently in college football and lightly in the NFL. No NBA. For college basketball I am currently in observing and tracking mode. For years I was strictly a spread bettor in hoop and football. I haven't given spread betting up completely, but my focus has clearly turned to money line wagering. I find myself paying close attention to a handful of conferences and as a result, I can keep tabs and stay in sync with the teams in these conferences. So I eliminate many games simply by the fact that the betting line and money line set on those games don't meet the criteria I am looking for. From there I look for what I feel are advantageous situations. These situations can be anything from a team being poorly coached to teams coming off a big win over a conference rival. It's impossible to stay up on every conference and every team, so I tend to follow teams and conferences where I can watch games and evaluate teams on a regular basis. During college football season, there may be weeks during the season that I do not make a play. I am waiting for the right situation. Just like someone buying an undervalued stock. When you find it, you go into action. There is no substitute for experience. If you have followed betting lines for years, you will know when a line seems odd or tight. How much action was on Duke NC last night ? Was there a clear cut winner jumping out in that game. No way. It could of gone either way. But you know it attracted much action just because it was on television and it was Duke NC. If I was looking at the rotation last night, I would of crossed that game off my list. I can go on and on. But hopefully you can see you are looking for significant advantages. Great teams playing bad teams. A great coach against a fraud. A hungry team against a passive team. Leave your heart out of it. Good luck.Comment -
Thanks TiredPro. I appreciate your insight.Comment
