CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Friday 1/30/09

[NYCKEV]

I like Bos -5.5, Chi PK and LAL -6.5. Gl to all

[Smacksmiter]

Well, you are probably correct in your assessment hockeytown...however, when I saw that line at Celtics -5.5 and I could not find any negative information to correlate with the low line ... I just could not resist and dropped 2k on it...

My observation of Detroit is they are an undisciplined team and the Celtics have handled them easily this year when they were on their game, as they are now...give me disciplined over undisciplined any day...

If Detroit can turn it on and take em down...they can just have my money... if you got me, you got me as they say in poker...lol

Boston -5.5 $2,200 to win $2,000
Boston 1st half -3 $1,100 to win $1,100

Good luck on this one everyone no matter which way you go!

[ClayBalls]

Solo-

If you have a second, try to explain something to me. I am not a trained stats guy and am wondering about the percentage relationship between the 1st half and game moneylines. In tonight's Butler game for example, the moneylines I see are -800 1st half and -2500 game. That is 32% and right on the borderline, as you said in your post that we must be under 32%. If the first half moneyline were to move to -900, that would seem to be a good thing for our play, but that would take the percentage to 36% and make it a no-play from what I understand. I'm probably missing something easy, but would like to understand it.

[hockeytown11]

I just like taking points when a desparate team is at home and is looking at a season saving game,this one night could determine the entire rest of the Pistons year,they lay an egg tonight its season over,they win the game and all of the sudden anything is possible,Good luck to you,now I really have to go lol

[maddogmadden86]

hockey i like thise NCAA first halves i was going to take them myself gonna tail you on your hockey picks as well best of luck to you mate

[jaymac82980]

smacks, I'm with you on the celts. I was dumb and waited, ig ot C's -6.5. But I'm not worried at all. Also got 'em -3 for the 1st H.

SHOW ME THE MONEYYYYYYY

[lambogb]

hockey i see your logic but id be weary of putting money against the celtics versus ANY team right now..

i am on boston -5

[solobass]

Great job yesterday. Saved me from an otherwise disastrous day. Thank you Ck.

Solo-

If you have a second, try to explain something to me. I am not a trained stats guy and am wondering about the percentage relationship between the 1st half and game moneylines. In tonight's Butler game for example, the moneylines I see are -800 1st half and -2500 game. That is 32% and right on the borderline, as you said in your post that we must be under 32%. If the first half moneyline were to move to -900, that would seem to be a good thing for our play, but that would take the percentage to 36% and make it a no-play from what I understand. I'm probably missing something easy, but would like to understand it.

well, first where you get your odds is important. i have the 1st H at -750 and the game at -2000 and that is 37.5%=no play right now. this is an interesting game, and if you read my initial writeup i anticipated problems such as these and that is where my thought about a blowout potential index formula so that we can rank the plays and bet on the ones with the highest probability. regarding the line move to -900 it would probably correlate with a move in the first half spread, and an upward tick of the game money line as well. the line might move if we all bet at the same time!

[esz04]

Solo-

If you have a second, try to explain something to me. I am not a trained stats guy and am wondering about the percentage relationship between the 1st half and game moneylines. In tonight's Butler game for example, the moneylines I see are -800 1st half and -2500 game. That is 32% and right on the borderline, as you said in your post that we must be under 32%. If the first half moneyline were to move to -900, that would seem to be a good thing for our play, but that would take the percentage to 36% and make it a no-play from what I understand. I'm probably missing something easy, but would like to understand it.

I think the answer is that if the first half ML was to move to 900, the full game ML would also likely move as well so this situation would be unlikely to arise.

[joanapoker]

BOSTON 1st HALF
CLEV 1st QRT

whatever the points.....locked!

[hockeytown11]

that fg football prop was changed from 32.5 to 44.5 at my book(see earlier post) I am CONVINCED that the books read these threads. Why would they change it today?

[ClayBalls]

Makes sense. I didn't have time to read everything yesterday but skimmed some thoughts about where people are finding their lines. If we are serious about that 32% number, then as you just showed, where you get your lines makes a very big difference. How did you get them when you made your model? Should we maybe look at 3 books and find an average? Maybe this was covered yesterday.

[ANDYW15]

that fg football prop was changed from 32.5 to 44.5 at my book(see earlier post) I am CONVINCED that the books read these threads. Why would they change it today?

maybe threads like these should be locked until people have over 50 posts lol...

[maddogmadden86]

CK what does styles like for the bobcats/mcnuggets game i'm leaning towards bobcats plus the points?

[hockeytown11]

did your books change it too? I really need to go,this shit is addicting,lol wife wants to go to lunch,Im running a little late

[moneygrip]

LAKERS

LAL -6 Coming off loss, should have something to prove against upstart t'wolves

also teasing them with steelers sunday

[nonsense48]

i took butler-9' 1st 1/2 cuz i think it's a solid bet. sometimes we tend to over think on some plays which can create too much confusion. if it's close in regards to your capping then go with your gut the rest of the way to make it a play or no play. jmo

[50lipa]

I'm with non on this one, since the game will blowout sooner or later, and if it goes close in 1H i don't doubt in 2H blowout.

[DevilDog]

I know this is a NCAA thread but I have to put a few NBA plays in here.

First of all I love Butler play -9 for the half. Like many of you I have made a killing with the CK SP's, and although this is not an official SP as far as I know....it is close enough.

Now for the NBA, when I see lines that seem too good to be true I usually shy away....but not this time!

Boston -1.5 for the 1st quarter
Boston -3 for the half
Boston -5.5 for the game.

There is no real need for a write up on any of these. Taking the BEST team who is hot against the inferior team that is not. You have to ride the wave until it is no more.

[nonsense48]

zactly 50

[solobass]

i took butler-9' 1st 1/2 cuz i think it's a solid bet. sometimes we tend to over think on some plays which can create too much confusion. if it's close in regards to your capping then go with your gut the rest of the way to make it a play or no play. jmo

the more i look at it, the more i agree with what you are saying. the profit potential is there because if the first half does not cash then more than likely the 2nd half will. the 32% threshold was a gate to maintain a success rate similar to that of the secret play, and plenty of other games cashed at higher percentages.

[nonsense48]

solo, your doing a great job here kiddo. keep it up and let's keep cashing tickets brother

[maddogmadden86]

solo i agree i'm going to hit butler first half if they hit leave it alone maybe take valpo lol, but if it doesnt cash i'll take them second half, i totally agree with you on your theory of first halves and second halves for NCAA lets keep the money coming solo and nonsense

[solobass]

ok, update again. now that i have capped the game, the Butler 1st H is most definitely a play for me

Butler 1st H -9 (or -9.5 depending on your book)

i will be tracking right here with you all because i think the profit potential is higher to cash in both the 1st and 2nd half than the whole game.

[solobass]

solo, your doing a great job here kiddo. keep it up and let's keep cashing tickets brother

thanks man, we have quite the braintrust here and we have ALL become much more educated and profitable based on our collective knowledge. With CK at the helm and the rest of us on the Mafia Loveboat I know what is a lock. Us getting paid $$$$$

[gameday10]

butler is -10 at 5dimes, I got 32.6% which is right at it. Might wait and see if it drops to -9.5.

[esz04]

I got Butler -9 at Bookmaker and a 38% difference. There are gonna be a bunch of plays tomorrow, not sure that we need to force this one.

[shoebox]

Hi fellas!!
Out here doing a hotel for work and these are the most idiotic people I have ever met. Sorry to vent but someone had to know.

Let's kill the books today!

[maddogmadden86]

what do u do shoebox?

[KingKing]

ok, update again. now that i have capped the game, the Butler 1st H is most definitely a play for me

Butler 1st H -9 (or -9.5 depending on your book)

i will be tracking right here with you all because i think the profit potential is higher to cash in both the 1st and 2nd half than the whole game.

Solo, thanks sooo much man for keeping us updating with these!!

[MJ]

Does this seem wayyyyy to low to anyone? Nfl prop bet FIRST MADE FG over 32.5 yrds,it would almost have to be an over play,its an 18 yd fg from the 1,anyhthing outside the 15 would be 33yrds,seem like a really bad line to me,i would think 37 or 38 would be the line

Pinnacle doesn't have that particular prop bet. Wish they did, cuz i would have taken it.

[solobass]

just to clarify, the butler play for me is a capping call, not a system play. i keep separate statistics for those (go figure). in case you have not noticed, i like working with numbers. this weekend i will be working on my blowout potential index. scratch that, not on sunday who are we kidding!

[shoebox]

Maddog
Insurance

[esz04]

Solo, can you elaborate a little bit on what this blowout index is going to be like? I really appreciate all of your hard work on the special plays and I'm also looking for any way we can maximize the amount of plays/pick the best plays.

[wangichu]

alright... seems like every time i post i either have a losing day or end up at about a push, but here goes anyways...

Boston really has detroit's number even if detroit wasn't stinking and boston is hot, detroit is not. Ride the train til' the wheels falls off...

BOS -6

only in 2005-2006 season did the bobs and nugs NOT split the season series. Those bouts include 2 wins at hom and two wins in denver for charlotte... denver took the first match and the bobs are playing better now anyways. No melo should make the win possible too for the bobs, but 10 pts. is just too much despite what the public thinks.

CHAR +10 (small ML)

The bulls HATE the arco arena, and sacto generally owns them either way taking the last 5 tilts in sacto and going 8-3 over the last 11. I'm showing only 40% of the public on the kings, yet the line dropped 2 points to a pick em. chicago hasn't really been playing that well, although they and the kings are both coming off opposite blowouts, kings got pounded by boston and the bulls slapped the clips around and are now on their third game of the road trip.

SAC PK

indy has won 6 straight home games and have done a good job of beating contenders SU at home. the heat are decent, but they're not on par with the lakers or celtics and yet the pacers are only asked to win by a couple buckets. MIA has won 3 straight and is in a good position to drop this one as revenge is due to be served to them. Indy historically plays the heat well even covering a 17 point spread at home against them last year (yeah, it's a WAY different heat squad, but the pacers are much improved too). Slightly more money on the heat (58%), yet a sharp play on INDY caused the spread to move up to -3. Gotta roll with granger and sons.

IND -3

also going to play very lightly here, but the t-wolves haven't lost back to back games in over a month (12/23 against the spurs) and have been covering at an alarming rate (13-4 ATS ... it's technically 12-4-1, but i bought the milwaukee spread down to 1.5 and played it so i count that one as a win for those who know their key numbers). We all know how the lakers can slip late, especially against a blazing hot minny squad out to prove that they can compete. Lakers have to be hurting after that double OT loss against charlotte in a very physical game. They've had 2 days of rest, but that should prompt them to be a little sluggish and the t-wolves should be able to keep it within 7.

MIN +7 (smaller play than my others, but small ML play too)