Opening NBA Bets: Celtics host LeBron & Cavs
Opening NBA Bets: Celtics host LeBron & Cavs
The NBA season tips off their 2008-09 season with a blockbuster in Boston when the Celtics raise their championship banner before taking on LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Both teams are expected to eventually meet in the Eastern Conference playoffs and will attract the interest of bettors all season. Looking for other teams out of the spotlight to follow and fade? Try Toronto and Golden State.
Yes, I am the victim of a Basketball Jones.
I’ve been looking forward to Tuesday’s NBA season opener between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics all summer long. Watching basketball at the Beijing Olympics was an appetizer, an amuse-bouche. You won’t find a team on the planet better than this year’s Team USA, but you will find a better level of competition at the top of both conferences. That’s exactly where Boston and Cleveland are in the East.
Both the Celtics and Cavaliers start the season with a nearly spotless bill of health. Boston point guard Rajon Rondo sprained his right ankle in preseason action last week, but it wasn’t serious enough to keep him from participating in Friday’s practice. Cleveland rookie Darnell Jackson is out until December with a broken left wrist; he’ll be one of the last men off the bench when he comes back.
Which leaves us with two teams loaded with star power and depth. The defending champions went wire-to-wire as the best club in the NBA, piling up 66 regular-season wins and shredding the betting odds at 52-28-2 against the spread. Cleveland dove into poverty at 37-45 ATS (45-37 SU), but after a sharp deal at the trade deadline, the Cavs pushed Boston to seven games in the second round of the Eastern playoffs at 6-1 ATS.
The Celtics check in as 6½-point favorites for Tuesday night’s matchup with a total of 179½. Although Boston’s Big Three are graying and James Posey is now with the Hornets, the continuing development of the Celtics reserves – including intriguing former high-school phenom Bill Walker – keeps the champs at the top of the East pecking order.
However, as a value-based handicapper, I’m staying away from the Celtics for now. They exceeded expectations last year by winning the title in the first year of their Kevin Garnett-Ray Allen overhaul. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, are on the rise. LeBron James was the best player in the league last year at 29.15 PER (Player Efficiency Rating) and is likely to keep improving in his sixth NBA season. Having Mo Williams (17.23 PER in Milwaukee) as his point guard gives James the most help he’s ever had. This is the year of King James.
I like Cleveland’s chances at the pay window, but the Cavs are not my top “follow” team for 2008-09, nor are the Celtics my top “fade” candidate. All the player movement we’ve seen between the Pau Gasol trade and Tuesday’s opener makes for a long list of potential boom and bust stories. Here are my personal favorites:
Follow: Toronto Raptors
The usually reliable moneymakers from north of the border went 41-41 last year (39-42-1 ATS), hamstrung by injuries and the cratering of sophomore Andrea Bargnani (10.96 PER). That all changes this year. The arrival of Jermaine O’Neal (9.4 boards per 40 minutes) gives Toronto an interior defensive and rebounding presence to complement MVP candidate Chris Bosh (24.23 PER). It also pushes Bargnani further down the depth chart, where he can either improve or not without causing too much damage.
Otherwise, the usual value-betting advantages apply to the Raptors: Very limited exposure in the mainstream media, a lot of European players (back-up pivot Roko Ukic is the latest) and a team approach that makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts. Last year’s Raptors, by the way, had a pythagorean record of 49-32.
Fade: Golden State Warriors
I wanted to put the Detroit Pistons here, but they are in much the same position as Boston with a young and capable bench supporting an aging rotation. So my attention turns to the West and one of the most dysfunctional franchises in an already dysfunctional league. The Warriors (48-34 SU, 34-48 ATS) were unable to get into the playoffs last year, and they are not even close to the same talent level after a lousy offseason that saw Baron Davis (19.85 PER) leave for the Clippers.
There are some things to like about Golden State, such as underappreciated big man Andris Biedrins (19.01 PER) and the addition of swingman Corey Maggette (19.14 PER) from the Clippers. But what are the Warriors going to do at point guard with new No. 1 Monta Ellis out until January following a moped accident? Marcus Williams hasn’t panned out yet, and C.J. Watson’s right elbow is bothering him, leaving rookie DeMarcus Nelson from Duke to start the season at the 1-spot. Welcome to the big leagues.
The NBA season tips off their 2008-09 season with a blockbuster in Boston when the Celtics raise their championship banner before taking on LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Both teams are expected to eventually meet in the Eastern Conference playoffs and will attract the interest of bettors all season. Looking for other teams out of the spotlight to follow and fade? Try Toronto and Golden State.
Yes, I am the victim of a Basketball Jones.
I’ve been looking forward to Tuesday’s NBA season opener between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics all summer long. Watching basketball at the Beijing Olympics was an appetizer, an amuse-bouche. You won’t find a team on the planet better than this year’s Team USA, but you will find a better level of competition at the top of both conferences. That’s exactly where Boston and Cleveland are in the East.
Both the Celtics and Cavaliers start the season with a nearly spotless bill of health. Boston point guard Rajon Rondo sprained his right ankle in preseason action last week, but it wasn’t serious enough to keep him from participating in Friday’s practice. Cleveland rookie Darnell Jackson is out until December with a broken left wrist; he’ll be one of the last men off the bench when he comes back.
Which leaves us with two teams loaded with star power and depth. The defending champions went wire-to-wire as the best club in the NBA, piling up 66 regular-season wins and shredding the betting odds at 52-28-2 against the spread. Cleveland dove into poverty at 37-45 ATS (45-37 SU), but after a sharp deal at the trade deadline, the Cavs pushed Boston to seven games in the second round of the Eastern playoffs at 6-1 ATS.
The Celtics check in as 6½-point favorites for Tuesday night’s matchup with a total of 179½. Although Boston’s Big Three are graying and James Posey is now with the Hornets, the continuing development of the Celtics reserves – including intriguing former high-school phenom Bill Walker – keeps the champs at the top of the East pecking order.
However, as a value-based handicapper, I’m staying away from the Celtics for now. They exceeded expectations last year by winning the title in the first year of their Kevin Garnett-Ray Allen overhaul. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, are on the rise. LeBron James was the best player in the league last year at 29.15 PER (Player Efficiency Rating) and is likely to keep improving in his sixth NBA season. Having Mo Williams (17.23 PER in Milwaukee) as his point guard gives James the most help he’s ever had. This is the year of King James.
I like Cleveland’s chances at the pay window, but the Cavs are not my top “follow” team for 2008-09, nor are the Celtics my top “fade” candidate. All the player movement we’ve seen between the Pau Gasol trade and Tuesday’s opener makes for a long list of potential boom and bust stories. Here are my personal favorites:
Follow: Toronto Raptors
The usually reliable moneymakers from north of the border went 41-41 last year (39-42-1 ATS), hamstrung by injuries and the cratering of sophomore Andrea Bargnani (10.96 PER). That all changes this year. The arrival of Jermaine O’Neal (9.4 boards per 40 minutes) gives Toronto an interior defensive and rebounding presence to complement MVP candidate Chris Bosh (24.23 PER). It also pushes Bargnani further down the depth chart, where he can either improve or not without causing too much damage.
Otherwise, the usual value-betting advantages apply to the Raptors: Very limited exposure in the mainstream media, a lot of European players (back-up pivot Roko Ukic is the latest) and a team approach that makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts. Last year’s Raptors, by the way, had a pythagorean record of 49-32.
Fade: Golden State Warriors
I wanted to put the Detroit Pistons here, but they are in much the same position as Boston with a young and capable bench supporting an aging rotation. So my attention turns to the West and one of the most dysfunctional franchises in an already dysfunctional league. The Warriors (48-34 SU, 34-48 ATS) were unable to get into the playoffs last year, and they are not even close to the same talent level after a lousy offseason that saw Baron Davis (19.85 PER) leave for the Clippers.
There are some things to like about Golden State, such as underappreciated big man Andris Biedrins (19.01 PER) and the addition of swingman Corey Maggette (19.14 PER) from the Clippers. But what are the Warriors going to do at point guard with new No. 1 Monta Ellis out until January following a moped accident? Marcus Williams hasn’t panned out yet, and C.J. Watson’s right elbow is bothering him, leaving rookie DeMarcus Nelson from Duke to start the season at the 1-spot. Welcome to the big leagues.