Letting you know what's up w/ UFC 149

[AdamB]

I am not particularly mathematically sound, but it is surely a fairly simple ideology - if you are a confident in your capping skills and feel you can accurately predict the % chance of a fighter winning a fight, and you see that the implied odds suggest a lower %, you make a bet. Obviously, the more confident you are in your capping of the fight, the more you potentially bet. This way, if you are good at capping, you are going to be predominantly backing winners at odds better than they should be.

I bet fairly conservatively at the moment as well (had to cash out this month because I've been overspending, but will reload when I get paid) and the fundamentals of this system still apply - I bet only on the picks I feel most confident in which also have good odds. This actually is much more inefficient than playing all +EV plays, because nobody that handicaps MMA is infallible - you can easily be very confident in a fight and lose, or try to chase better odds with a prop and lose that way.

I'm still learning about all of this, and it's mostly for entertainment - I'm relatively confident in my capping ability but my actually betting ability in terms of finding the best books and BRM still leaves something to be desired. I suppose it doesn't help that I get bored at work and wind up tailing peoples WNBA/PBA picks from Players Talk.

[fosho14]

See this is the problem. You said that anybody playing Jordan is insane and if they tail Gabe will get burned. Then one line later u say that the fight could easily go either way. So you've gone from saying that playin Jordan is insane to then saying it's a 50/50 fight

Again, whether student or professional gambler or professional bum bandit, the fact that your not betting on Kongo at +105 to +120 range shows that you cant really think that "anybody who tails Gabe on Jordan will get burned." If you were so sure on this then you would be playing Kongo.

At the time Jordan was hovering around -140, and ya that is an insane bet to make in a coin flip fight. My book has never had Kongo at +120 but at that price I would have had to at least consider it. Right now Kongo is -105 on my betting account. Even if I had Kongo through 5D at the current line of +110 it's just not my style to gamble money on a fight between 2 guys who have so many holes in their game on so many different levels, with a multitude of variables and unknowns paired with 1 fighter being on the decline and the other being all around just terrible. If someone had a gun to my head, and I was forced to pick the outcome it would be Kongo, but I don't particularly feel like throwing cash on something so risky for a 1.1X payout even if it is mathematically the right decision. Kind of like I wouldn't really want to bet on a hypothetical matchup involving robbie lawler vs jason macdonald even if there was a tiny bit of +EV on either side. I understand that mathematically you should not pass on any +EV but I'm very conservative with my bankroll and placing my wagers. I realize you consider me dumb for being conservative and risk averse but it's been working for me. We've already gone through this earlier, and not sure why you like going around in circles endlessly.

[Grabaka]

No, people consider you dumb as defactus was saying because you tried to look so cool and know-it-all and teach us a lesson. Am i insane for having a play on Jordan? **** off. Best advise is take it to the chin and learn...dont come back trying to sell us anything.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Shawn Jordan is an overrated fat tub of lard people are riding his nuts just because he beat that can Lavar Johnson in strikeforce. Kongo will have no problem bullying him around and owning him with kicks. He will lose and then probably fight Chad Gravedigger Griggs for the strikeforce tomato can belt

[Grabaka]

lol It may end up being that way.

[Thor4140]

Shawn Jordan is an overrated fat tub of lard people are riding his nuts just because he beat that can Lavar Johnson in strikeforce. Kongo will have no problem bullying him around and owning him with kicks. He will lose and then probably fight Chad Gravedigger Griggs for the strikeforce tomato can belt

u ever see how quick Lavar taps when he hits the ground? If there are records around for fastest taps in MMA history when hitting the ground first, this slug may have three of the top five. Sapp may have the other two.

[AdamB]

That right hook that Holata knocked Jordan out cold with is eerily similar to both the first and second hooks that Kongo slept Barry with. Not out of the realm of possibility for a really similar situation to occur, in fact - Jordan has less power than Barry so it'd take a good few shots for him to put Kongo out. If he got overexcited after clipping him, he could get knocked out in the same way.

[Vaughany]

At the time Jordan was hovering around -140, and ya that is an insane bet to make in a coin flip fight. My book has never had Kongo at +120 but at that price I would have had to at least consider it. Right now Kongo is -105 on my betting account. Even if I had Kongo through 5D at the current line of +110 it's just not my style to gamble money on a fight between 2 guys who have so many holes in their game on so many different levels, with a multitude of variables and unknowns paired with 1 fighter being on the decline and the other being all around just terrible. If someone had a gun to my head, and I was forced to pick the outcome it would be Kongo, but I don't particularly feel like throwing cash on something so risky for a 1.1X payout even if it is mathematically the right decision. Kind of like I wouldn't really want to bet on a hypothetical matchup involving robbie lawler vs jason macdonald even if there was a tiny bit of +EV on either side. I understand that mathematically you should not pass on any +EV but I'm very conservative with my bankroll and placing my wagers. I realize you consider me dumb for being conservative and risk averse but it's been working for me. We've already gone through this earlier, and not sure why you like going around in circles endlessly.

I dont think ur dumb for being conservative and risk averse, it's the fact of how you responded to Gabe's play. You didnt say "oh this is questionable, each fighter has so many holes in their game and multitude of variables, I wouldnt be confident in playing Jordan at -140, it's a 50/50 fight for me or slightly favour Kongo." You said "it's insane to play Jordan and that you'll get burned if you tail Gabe. To me that sounds like a bit more certainty in Jordan losing than saying it's a coin-flip...that's all!

[Vaughany]

That right hook that Holata knocked Jordan out cold with is eerily similar to both the first and second hooks that Kongo slept Barry with. Not out of the realm of possibility for a really similar situation to occur, in fact - Jordan has less power than Barry so it'd take a good few shots for him to put Kongo out. If he got overexcited after clipping him, he could get knocked out in the same way.

I thought Kongo caught him with a overhand or striaght right then a short uppercut?

[Vaughany]

Shawn Jordan is an overrated fat tub of lard people are riding his nuts just because he beat that can Lavar Johnson in strikeforce. Kongo will have no problem bullying him around and owning him with kicks. He will lose and then probably fight Chad Gravedigger Griggs for the strikeforce tomato can belt

Could well be right

[AdamB]

I thought Kongo caught him with a overhand or striaght right then a short uppercut?

Yeah, my bad, the first is kind of a looping hook but the second is a similar short right hand in the pocket.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzKEOYO_8TE

vs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RfLsDGyZNU

Not all that relevant a comparison for me to make anyway, it's just interesting.

[Vaughany]

Yeah, my bad, the first is kind of a looping hook but the second is a similar short right hand in the pocket.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzKEOYO_8TE

vs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RfLsDGyZNU

Not all that relevant a comparison for me to make anyway, it's just interesting.

yeah, but the point still stands tht Kongo's counter striking can be very good at times. I believe he dropped Cain from a counter straight right or something

[BIGDAY]

Thread now just gives me a headache...

[Grabaka]

Gabe is the Matt Brown of SBR. He always delivers an epic war on his threads.

[AdamB]

yeah, but the point still stands tht Kongo's counter striking can be very good at times. I believe he dropped Cain from a counter straight right or something

Great point. I'm thinking more and more Jordan'll get put to sleep either in an exchange or more likely if he hurts Kongo and is going for the kill.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Shawn Jordan is an overrated fat tub of lard people are riding his nuts just because he beat that can Lavar Johnson in strikeforce. Kongo will have no problem bullying him around and owning him with kicks. He will lose and then probably fight Chad Gravedigger Griggs for the strikeforce tomato can belt

Bravo, sir. Bravo.

[NunyaBidness]

I am not particularly mathematically sound, but it is surely a fairly simple ideology - if you are a confident in your capping skills and feel you can accurately predict the % chance of a fighter winning a fight, and you see that the implied odds suggest a lower %, you make a bet. Obviously, the more confident you are in your capping of the fight, the more you potentially bet. This way, if you are good at capping, you are going to be predominantly backing winners at odds better than they should be.

I bet fairly conservatively at the moment as well (had to cash out this month because I've been overspending, but will reload when I get paid) and the fundamentals of this system still apply - I bet only on the picks I feel most confident in which also have good odds. This actually is much more inefficient than playing all +EV plays, because nobody that handicaps MMA is infallible - you can easily be very confident in a fight and lose, or try to chase better odds with a prop and lose that way.

You're on the right track. And obviously no one can cap a fight down to the exact percentage. When I prepare for openers I have a range I look for, Example in the Natal/Craig fight, I was willing to bet Natal at -160 or better, and would've taken Craig at +225 or better, feeling pretty confident that the true line was somewhere between there. About 2/3rds of the time the openers will be a no play, when it is juicy, I bet Kelly on the difference between my minimum projected line and the line that is available.

Sometimes you're dead wrong (and I mean by what the true line should have been, not the results of the fight), you incorporate this into your future handicapping and move on.

Once you've got some serious volume behind you, you don't have to sweat if you were wrong on this fight or that fight, if you've got 3% ROI over 2000 events you can be very confident that you are winning and will continue to do so, individual fights be damned.

[gabe]

You're on the right track. And obviously no one can cap a fight down to the exact percentage. When I prepare for openers I have a range I look for, Example in the Natal/Craig fight, I was willing to bet Natal at -160 or better, and would've taken Craig at +225 or better, feeling pretty confident that the true line was somewhere between there. About 2/3rds of the time the openers will be a no play, when it is juicy, I bet Kelly on the difference between my minimum projected line and the line that is available.

Sometimes you're dead wrong (and I mean by what the true line should have been, not the results of the fight), you incorporate this into your future handicapping and move on.

Once you've got some serious volume behind you, you don't have to sweat if you were wrong on this fight or that fight, if you've got 3% ROI over 2000 events you can be very confident that you are winning and will continue to do so, individual fights be damned.

What a coincidence. "Individual Fights Be Damned" happens to be the title of the screenplay I'm currently working on. It's a romantic-drama...

[NunyaBidness]

It's also the name of my band's forthcoming album. Watch out for a lawsuit.

[gabe]

.

[DirtyX]

Shawn Jordan is an overrated fat tub of lard people are riding his nuts just because he beat that can Lavar Johnson in strikeforce. Kongo will have no problem bullying him around and owning him with kicks. He will lose and then probably fight Chad Gravedigger Griggs for the strikeforce tomato can belt

[gabe]

Chad Griggs is a 205er now, shows how in touch with MMA this guy is... lol

Lavar beat Barry more convincingly and dominantly than Kongo did with his lucky punch.

If Lavar is a can, then what are Joey Beltran and Pat Barry?

People called Lavar a can before the Beltran fight and were betting against him... then were made to look like fools. Anyone calling Lavar a can is a fool in my book.

I wish Lavar could have beaten Struve, then maybe one more win and in a fight vs JDS -- that'd be a sick stand-up battle I'd LOVE to see!

[Vaughany]

Chad Griggs is a 205er now, shows how in touch with MMA this guy is... lol

Lavar beat Barry more convincingly and dominantly than Kongo did with his lucky punch.

If Lavar is a can, then what are Joey Beltran and Pat Barry?

People called Lavar a can before the Beltran fight and were betting against him... then were made to look like fools. Anyone calling Lavar a can is a fool in my book.

I wish Lavar could have beaten Struve, then maybe one more win and in a fight vs JDS -- that'd be a sick stand-up battle I'd LOVE to see!

Good chance u get flamed for this!

[Beelzebubzy]

The flaming here goes on a rotational basis. Looks like it might head Sir Gabriel's way.
Go out on your shield!

[Vaughany]

The flaming here goes on a rotational basis. Looks like it might head Sir Gabriel's way.
Go out on your shield!

lol

[Thor4140]

Good chance u get flamed for this!

he should for the whole post

[gabe]

Good chance u get flamed for this!

Why, 'cos JDS would wanna take it to the ground?

Lavar has the heaviest hands in the HW division. I'd personally love to see that match-up. He'd be a huge dog, but it will be an entertaining fight, for sure.

[gabe]

he should for the whole post

tool.

[Vaughany]

Why, 'cos JDS would wanna take it to the ground?

Lavar has the heaviest hands in the HW division. I'd personally love to see that match-up. He'd be a huge dog, but it will be an entertaining fight, for sure.

No cos I'd guess a lot (not sayin me necessarily) would think JDS's striking is on another level

[Crassus]

I wish Lavar could have beaten Struve, then maybe one more win and in a fight vs JDS -- that'd be a sick stand-up battle I'd LOVE to see!

I'd prefer Lavar vs Hunt or Kharitonov.

[Thor4140]

tool.

u take all the favorites on this card as well?

[fosho14]

I wish Lavar could have beaten Struve, then maybe one more win and in a fight vs JDS -- that'd be a sick stand-up battle I'd LOVE to see!

Reem vs JDS = sick standup battle I'd love to see. Lavar...not so much.

[Beelzebubzy]

His striking is decent. Hand speed is not as quick as junior nor is his footwork.
But to each their own.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Reem vs JDS = sick standup battle I'd love to see. Lavar...not so much.

Holy shit thats deep I'm sure everyone truly values you here. God you are useless, like a pathetic puppy that keeps coming back. Don't you think sherdog would be better for your inane drivel?

[gabe]

u take all the favorites on this card as well?

You're talking about last weekend when I went 15-2? lol ok, keep talking...