Letting you know what's up w/ UFC 149

[Thor4140]

oh my. Then you're not very good at covering all your angles when capping a fight. Cody is much taller, has a huge reach advantage, and is wild. If you can't believe I introduced the possibility of him catching Mendes with a knee during a takedown attempt, then lol @ you.

Lotta dummies think Cody's only chance is a lucky guillotine.

[Thor4140]

It's stupid to say that I don't expect Mendes to get KO'd but wouldn't be surprised if he was?

LOL You reallllly are a dumb guy.

their was no fuking way that stiff was gonna win that fight no how no way. To be a MMA fan and even think he had a chance is laughable.

[gabe]

their was no fuking way that stiff was gonna win that fight no how no way. To be a MMA fan and even think he had a chance is laughable.

You are a very stupid person, and I will tell you why: I never said Cody was going to win that fight. I only said that -650 for Chad Mendes was too much juice and I wouldn't touch it. I went on to mention possible ways I could see Mendes losing. In no way, shape, or form did I EVER tell anybody to bet on Cody. He was a huge dog and even I didn't make a play on him. All I ever did is give my thoughts on that fight, a fight which I had no wager on. You are a fool.


P.S.- If you wanna talk about laughable, 90% of the shit you've ever said on here is laughable.

[Thor4140]

You are a very stupid person, and I will tell you why: I never said Cody was going to win that fight. I only said that -650 for Chad Mendes was too much juice and I wouldn't touch it. I went on to mention possible ways I could see Mendes losing. In no way, shape, or form did I EVER tell anybody to bet on Cody. He was a huge dog and even I didn't make a play on him. All I ever did is give my thoughts on that fight, a fight which I had no wager on. You are a fool.

u said -450 was to much. 1000 was still a sweet deal. U say dumb shit all the fuking times. Heck just in this thread "court Mcgee is not hungry anymore" LMFAO. How the fuk u know that? His last fight he lost but it wasn't like he quit or got totally dominated. U list cans Tim fought but nothing about the ones Lombard fought.

[Oblivian]

Maybe I'm getting old, but I can't take anyone seriously that says "u".

[Thor4140]

Maybe I'm getting old, but I can't take anyone seriously that says "u".

ur getting old. It is a message board not a grammar site. Get the message?

[DublinMeUp]

Maybe I'm getting old, but I can't take anyone seriously that says "u".

Good to know

[gabe]

u said -450 was to much. 1000 was still a sweet deal. U say dumb shit all the fuking times. Heck just in this thread "court Mcgee is not hungry anymore" LMFAO. How the fuk u know that? His last fight he lost but it wasn't like he quit or got totally dominated. U list cans Tim fought but nothing about the ones Lombard fought.

you are such a dumb fk. yeah -450 was a bad line. also, i never said mcgee is not hungry anymore. lmao you are such an idiot. i did say he didn't look too motivated in his last fight, and that i don't expect much of his training or skills to have changed since.

remember when you msg'd me complimenting me on how i was the only one on the board who picked siver and siyar on that card? and kept asking me for my picks on future cards?? good times.

get lost, creep.

[Oblivian]

ur getting old. It is a message board not a grammar site. Get the message?

Did you fax it?

[Thor4140]

You are a very stupid person, and I will tell you why: I never said Cody was going to win that fight. I only said that -650 for Chad Mendes was too much juice and I wouldn't touch it. I went on to mention possible ways I could see Mendes losing. In no way, shape, or form did I EVER tell anybody to bet on Cody. He was a huge dog and even I didn't make a play on him. All I ever did is give my thoughts on that fight, a fight which I had no wager on. You are a fool.


P.S.- If you wanna talk about laughable, 90% of the shit you've ever said on here is laughable.

funny from a guy who has had wars as well as multiple wars with almost every guy on these mma and boxing threads. Im still trying to figure out why u need to put your picks in someone else's thread when u have your own thread. Is attention lacking at home?

[Thor4140]

Did you fax it?

on its way

[gabe]

funny from a guy who has had wars as well as multiple wars with almost every guy on these mma and boxing threads. Im still trying to figure out why u need to put your picks in someone else's thread when u have your own thread. Is attention lacking at home?

this is my thread...

also, yes, attention is lacking at home.

[Thor4140]

you are such a dumb fk. yeah -450 was a bad line. also, i never said mcgee is not hungry anymore. lmao you are such an idiot. i did say he didn't look too motivated in his last fight, and that i don't expect much of his training or skills to have changed since.

remember when you msg'd me complimenting me on how i was the only one on the board who picked siver and siyar on that card? and kept asking me for my picks on future cards?? good times.

get lost, creep.

Post the PM u lying asshole. You won't cause you can't. I wouldn't pm a dope like u if we were the only two left on the site and we couldn't view each others post. Such a fraud. No wonder nobody respect you. U are full of shit.

[fosho14]

Nunya, and his little posse:

Cut the bullshit for a second, you guys sit here gloating on a sports betting forum trying to pretend your acclaimed mathematicians winning an important argument, it's quite funny. First of all, I'm aware that Kelly criterion advises one not to pass on any edge despite how tiny that edge may be. This has been acknowledged and discussed earlier so stop redundantly repeating yourselves lol. I'm not arguing with you about that. I've already stated in the past that I don't do this full time as a career like Nunya, and this is more of an enjoyable hobby than anything where I like picking my spots (selecting bets that I feel have significant value, and staying away from ones that don't). Let me put this to you in another way, Kelly Criterion is not a one size fits all system and I am more conscious/concerned about my risk of ruin relative to my bankroll than anything. For example many times I see lines off much much more than Kongo/Jordan and those are the ones I jump on. For instance awhile back, Waldburger at evens over Hecht was an exceptional line -insane value on waldburger who should have been -250 at least! I can't justify gambling on a fight in which I have absolutely no idea who will be the victor even if it is +115 for a 50/50 fight. There are plenty of opportunities elsewhere that can usually be found where there are +200 dogs who I have capped at 50/50, or a -200 fighter who should be -500, and so in these events I feel a bet is warranted. I like the system I have right now, but I'm in no way arguing that kelly criterion is the most widely accepted gambling theory or formula for serious dedicated professional gamblers. Again this is not my career, I'm a student coming on here to try to help everyone with fight discussion/analysis based on degree of confidence and also attain opinions myself, in the same fashion. I've been profitable, and I'm just trying to help others be profitable as well.

[NunyaBidness]

Nunya, and his little posse:
This has been acknowledged and discussed earlier so stop redundantly repeating yourselves

I stopped reading here, at the zenith of delicious irony.

Then I touched myself.

[Imsmarterthanu]

You're really on Shawn Jordan ?

[DublinMeUp]

See what you're missing fosho is that fine you don't want to take every edge but you then go on to advise people based on totally incorrect math and logic, do you see? no one is trying to force you to do anything but when you try to "help" you end up hurting because of the lack of understanding.

I might also mention that if I'm included in this "posse" it was you and wanna bet that turned me in that direction, if you go back to my first posts regarding both of you they where impartial, I tried to help explain something that you clearly needed explaining, they became like they are now due to both of you exploding into random rants and attempted insults after misinterpreting my posts.

P.s Kelly criterion is just a staking strategy, it has zero bearing on the profitability of a bet (its expected value). I do know that you will struggle to find any staking plan/strat that will tell you to pass on an edge. Doesn't matter though its a personal choice how you actually manage your BR, Risk aversion etc.

Edit: Oh and Wanna bet turned out to be a complete douche in the end.

[BIGDAY]

I remember asking Gabe for an honest answer for the outcome of the Mendes fight, he did reply Mendes by decision.

[BIGDAY]

GL this weekend Gabe. Honesty couldn't pull the trigger in anything. I think the card should be packed with awesome fights, so looking forward to the card for sure.

[fosho14]

...

[fosho14]

See what you're missing fosho is that fine you don't want to take every edge but you then go on to advise people based on totally incorrect math and logic, do you see? no one is trying to force you to do anything but when you try to "help" you end up hurting because of the lack of understanding.

I might also mention that if I'm included in this "posse" it was you and wanna bet that turned me in that direction, if you go back to my first posts regarding both of you they where impartial, I tried to help explain something that you clearly needed explaining, they became like they are now due to both of you exploding into random rants and attempted insults after misinterpreting my posts.

P.s Kelly criterion is just a staking strategy, it has zero bearing on the profitability of a bet (its expected value). I do know that you will struggle to find any staking plan/strat that will tell you to pass on an edge. Doesn't matter though its a personal choice how you actually manage your BR, Risk aversion etc.

Edit: Oh and Wanna bet turned out to be a complete douche in the end.

I haven't argued with any math or logic or told anyone to do anything Dublin. I'm afraid to say, your reading comprehension needs some work my friend. I've actually done quite the opposite of what your accusing me of, acknowledging that kelly does not advise passing up any edge no matter how tiny. Just sharing my opinions based on my risk profile, people are obviously free to do as they wish.

Edit: Wanna bet is not a bad guy in my books.

[TheCalculator]

First of all, I enjoy both schools of thoughts. Nunya certainly educates many of us including me about the mathematics of betting. Others just don't give a flying fawk.

Here's something for all of us to keep in mind:

AT BEST... we're all dealing with fuzzy logic: our opinions and perception.

That's the problem with the Kelly criterion. You bet if you THINK you have an edge.

Personally, I think it's a mistake to act like my handicapping/edges are a PRECISE mathematic calculations and that I can apply Kelly Criterion on top of that and then calculate the perfect bet.

I've certainly lost my share of bets using this "logic".

Whatever edge I think I have -- I cut it in half so that's it's more likely to be in line with reality.

[Crassus]

Nunya, and his little posse:

Cut the bullshit for a second, you guys sit here gloating on a sports betting forum trying to pretend your acclaimed mathematicians winning an important argument, it's quite funny. First of all, I'm aware that Kelly criterion advises one not to pass on any edge despite how tiny that edge may be. This has been acknowledged and discussed earlier so stop redundantly repeating yourselves lol. I'm not arguing with you about that. I've already stated in the past that I don't do this full time as a career like Nunya, and this is more of an enjoyable hobby than anything where I like picking my spots (selecting bets that I feel have significant value, and staying away from ones that don't). Let me put this to you in another way, Kelly Criterion is not a one size fits all system and I am more conscious/concerned about my risk of ruin relative to my bankroll than anything. For example many times I see lines off much much more than Kongo/Jordan and those are the ones I jump on. For instance awhile back, Waldburger at evens over Hecht was an exceptional line -insane value on waldburger who should have been -250 at least! I can't justify gambling on a fight in which I have absolutely no idea who will be the victor even if it is +115 for a 50/50 fight. There are plenty of opportunities elsewhere that can usually be found where there are +200 dogs who I have capped at 50/50, or a -200 fighter who should be -500, and so in these events I feel a bet is warranted. I like the system I have right now, but I'm in no way arguing that kelly criterion is the most widely accepted gambling theory or formula for serious dedicated professional gamblers. Again this is not my career, I'm a student coming on here to try to help everyone with fight discussion/analysis based on degree of confidence and also attain opinions myself, in the same fashion. I've been profitable, and I'm just trying to help others be profitable as well.

That is a decently spoken argument. I will give you that. I don't have any issue with your way of gambling, hell I don't use the kelly criterion either. BUT you don't need to come off as a condescending dick by telling Gabe if he doesn't heed your god given advice HE WILL FAIL. Also, it is stupid not to bet a 50/50 at +115, the thing is there is no 50/50 here it's something, but not that. Don't call match-ups you don't like a coin-toss, they're not. You simply don't wish to put the effort/have no interest in computing the true odds (in your opinion) and making a wager based on that.

Just be a little more humble and act like your picks are your opinions and not guaranteed and you'll be solid. One of the reasons I'm not a fan of Luca Fury, he comes on a discussion board and acts superior. He can suck a dick with that attitude.

[Mercersux]

That is a decently spoken argument. I will give you that. I don't have any issue with your way of gambling, hell I don't use the kelly criterion either. BUT you don't need to come off as a condescending dick by telling Gabe if he doesn't heed your god given advice HE WILL FAIL. Also, it is stupid not to bet a 50/50 at +115, the thing is there is no 50/50 here it's something, but not that. Don't call match-ups you don't like a coin-toss, they're not. You simply don't wish to put the effort/have no interest in computing the true odds (in your opinion) and making a wager based on that.

Just be a little more humble and act like your picks are your opinions and not guaranteed and you'll be solid. One of the reasons I'm not a fan of Luca Fury, he comes on a discussion board and acts superior. He can suck a dick with that attitude.

Well said about Fury. Haven't been on the forums enough to read most of the garbage he posts but he does come across very arrogant. I remember i scored on Chiesa over Lawrence where Fury was on Lawrence and he says " you probably need it more than me." I'm like bisch, if your some "professional" mma gambler you must need it more. I'm about helping everyone on here win money but he is probably the one exception.

[PunisherIND]

Wanna bet is not a bad guy in my books.

i was going to give you a serious response about how i respect your personal strategy and blah blah blah, but these guys have pretty much covered it imo. (as an aside, its nice that we can still have respectful and intelligent discourse from time to time. and by "we" i am obviously referring to nunya's posse).

so instead, i wanted to ask you the following pressing question and please answer honestly:

do you believe that wannabet is 30 yrs old surgeon pulling in 400k?

warning: your future sbr reputation may hinge on your response to this question.

[DublinMeUp]

I haven't argued with any math or logic or told anyone to do anything Dublin.

Nothing is truly a "winning play" until it actually "wins" and cashes after there is an outcome. If I bet on munoz right now because it is a "winning" play according to projected +EV and then he loses, it is no longer a winning play.

+115 ain't shit for a coin flip.

Gabe. Just letting you know right now, that your way off on Jordan. It's in your best interests to listen to me to save yourself the impending losses your going to suffer from playing him.......
Why the F would you be confident in Jordan? Sorry, just can't stand this irritating BS that your posting on here lately and trying to help you not lose your shirt again.

I can't be bothered finding more examples

I'm afraid to say, your reading comprehension needs some work my friend.

Your everything comprehension needs work, is your brain connected to your mouth (or hands in this case) or do they operate independently of each other.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Congratulations on proving yourself the stupidest poster here.

[NunyaBidness]

i was going to give you a serious response about how i respect your personal strategy and blah blah blah, but these guys have pretty much covered it imo. (as an aside, its nice that we can still have respectful and intelligent discourse from time to time. and by "we" i am obviously referring to nunya's posse).

[NunyaBidness]

Sorry, 'The Stupidest Poster Here', is the name for a rotating club of miscreants on this board. Started early on by UFC>Pride, taken over by Gabe (who has since quit and joined the Nunya Posse). Current membership consists of a half dozen or so members. New members join frequently.

[NunyaBidness]

The thing is with the whole math thing, its not like you have to be either a math bettor or a feel bettor (or whatever method you choose to incorporate). Understanding the math will only help you and never hurt you, so why not take an afternoon to learn it?

[Educ8d Degener8]

Sorry, 'The Stupidest Poster Here', is the name for a rotating club of miscreants on this board. Started early on by UFC>Pride, taken over by Gabe (who has since quit and joined the Nunya Posse). Current membership consists of a half dozen or so members. New members join frequently.

Thank you for rectifying your statement.

Though, I am laughing at your insinuation that a retard could learn math in an afternoon.

[Beelzebubzy]

Cause math is super hard cuz
ps as a headsup you spelled nunya wrong in your play line

[NunyaBidness]

Thank you for rectifying your statement.

Though, I am laughing at your insinuation that a retard could learn math in an afternoon.

But the math involved is nothing more difficult than 6th grade algebra. At least in this game.

Sure, if you want to get involved more seriously in other facets you're going to have to take some 100 level college courses. Some basic probability theory, binomial distributions, poisson distributions. If you really want to get serious you can learn some programming.

I highly recommend coursera.org and khanacademy.org for anyone who wants to learn this stuff on their own.

Here's some coursework some people might find useful:

https://www.coursera.org/course/stats1

https://www.coursera.org/course/gametheory (not useful for sportsbetting, but interesting)

https://www.coursera.org/course/compinvesting1

[NunyaBidness]

ps as a headsup you spelled nunya wrong in your play line

Prove it.

[Beelzebubzy]

4k to 1k line that I can prove it
or we bet two bouncy castles each