Letting you know what's up w/ UFC 149

[fosho14]

Pull that dildo out of your mouth and listen phaggo.

No idiot, the point is that I don't care to risk money on zillions of bets that are +105 or even +110 when I've capped them at coin flips and the risk is incredibly volatile even though it is obvious that there is apparent +EV. This decision is based on my size of bankroll and risk of ruin. Go look up and read about risk of ruin, it's pretty evident you have no grasp of this concept, too busy being a pedophile and all. You asinine, degenerate, imbecile are you really this dumb? I can see why everyone continually dubbed you a troll.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Pull that dildo out of your mouth and listen phaggo.

No idiot, the point is that I don't care to risk money on zillions of bets that are +105 or even +110 when I've capped them at coin flips and the risk is incredibly volatile even though it is obvious that there is apparent +EV. This decision is based on my size of bankroll and risk of ruin. Go look up and read about risk of ruin, it's pretty evident you have no grasp of this concept, too busy being a pedophile and all. You asinine, degenerate, imbecile are you really this dumb? I can see why everyone continually dubbed you a troll.

Lol, you still don't get it, just like when the whole forum tried to explain what a plus +EV bet it and you couldn't understand.

People have told you before that if your bankroll is too small to make +EV plays, then either your bankroll is too small or your plays are too big. The only "risk of ruin" by making +EV plays is in the SHORT TERM VARIANCE. If your bankroll can't sustain SHORT TERM VARIANCE then you are not practising proper bankroll management, lol. If you can't come up with a bankroll big enough, you SHOULD NOT BE GAMBLING.

No one is even asking you to play the Kelley Criterion. The whole forum could try and come and explain this to you, but you wouldn't understand and would just start hurling insults because that is what stupid people do when they become frustrated, lol.

There is a reason why you are the stupidest person on here.

[gabe]

It is a concrete fact that Kongo has overall faced the much better quality competition (cumulatively). I guess you could argue that theoretically Jordan could currently be ranked as high as Kongo since rankings are purely subjective. If you did a thousand person poll right now, asking fans/fighters who they believe is a higher ranked opponent at this point in time the answer would probably be Kongo, based on his resume being considerably stronger than Jordans.

We went from talking apples to talking oranges... Stay on point. You said Jordan is the easiest opponent Kongo has faced in a while, and I told you that isn't true. Kongo's heavyweight ranking is irrelevant to this conversation. Nobody is questioning that Kongo is a higher ranked fighter than Jordan. What a stupid thing to say.

[Vaughany]

It is a concrete fact that Kongo has overall faced the much better quality competition (cumulatively). I guess you could argue that theoretically Jordan could currently be ranked as high as Kongo since rankings are purely subjective. If you did a thousand person poll right now, asking fans/fighters who they believe is a higher ranked opponent at this point in time the answer would probably be Kongo, based on his resume being considerably stronger than Jordans.

Was also concrete fact that Kamal Shalorus had faced better quality competition than Nurmagamedov...

[Vaughany]

Actually no. You have missed the point again, because you are stupid.

The "Kelly Criterion" is by no means the only system that tells you to make +EV plays. The Kelly Criterion just gives you a system for HOW MUCH TO RISK when these +EV plays arise. In fact, no one will tell you to pass on a +EV play, unless they are a complete moron, or a child who does not have a sufficient bankroll.

You said the other week that you "did not tell people to stop making +EV plays" but yet you did it again. So dating back to that you did not know what a +EV bet was because you were clearly telling people not to make them despite calling me a "troll and a liar" for accusing you of doing so. The posts Dublin quoted made you look like a complete fool.

You even came in this thread telling people not to make them (Dublin quoted you). So either you know STILL don't really understand what a +EV play is, or you do understand but tell people not to make them anyway.

People call you the "stupidest poster on this board" because you might actually be. Especially considering other members from the hall of fame like "jesus eats nubs" could very well have been trolling with a name like that. Your stupidity is %100 genuine, it's not an act, lol.

jesuseatsnubs was awesome

[fosho14]

Lol, you still don't get it, just like when the whole forum tried to explain what a plus +EV bet it and you couldn't understand.

People have told you before that if your bankroll is too small to make +EV plays, then either your bankroll is too small or your plays are too big. The only "risk of ruin" by making +EV plays is in the SHORT TERM VARIANCE. If your bankroll can't sustain SHORT TERM VARIANCE then you are not practising proper bankroll management, lol. If you can't come up with a bankroll big enough, you SHOULD NOT BE GAMBLING.

No one is even asking you to play the Kelley Criterion. The whole forum could try and come and explain this to you, but you wouldn't understand and would just start hurling insults because that is what stupid people do when they become frustrated, lol.

There is a reason why you are the stupidest person on here.

You are further demonstrating that you have no knowledge in the area surrounding gambler's ruin, you stupid bastard. Keep trolling, LOLOLOLOL

[fosho14]

We went from talking apples to talking oranges... Stay on point. You said Jordan is the easiest opponent Kongo has faced in a while, and I told you that isn't true. Kongo's heavyweight ranking is irrelevant to this conversation. Nobody is questioning that Kongo is a higher ranked fighter than Jordan. What a stupid thing to say.

Based on their respective rankings analysts would make this assumption that on paper jordan is an average test for kongo compared to kongo being a tough test for Jordan but I guess this is subjective so your right it comes down to my opinion vs yours.

[DeFactoCrippler]

You are further demonstrating that you have no knowledge in the area surrounding gambler's ruin, you stupid bastard. Keep trolling, LOLOLOLOL

Why don't you explain to me how "gambler's ruin" has ANYTHING to do with you not placing +EV bets?????

The term gambler's ruin is used for a number of related statistical ideas:

• The original meaning is that a gambler who raises his bet to a fixed fraction of bankroll when he wins, but does not reduce it when he loses, will eventually go broke, even if he has a positiveexpected value on each bet.
• Another common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected value zero to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent with infinite wealth.
• The result above is a corollary of a general theorem by Christiaan Huygens which is also known as gambler's ruin. That theorem shows how to compute the probability of each player winning a series of bets that continues until one's entire initial stake is lost, given the initial stakes of the two players and the constant probability of winning. This is the oldest mathematical idea that goes by the name gambler's ruin, but not the first idea to which the name was applied.
• The most common use of the term today is for the unsurprising idea that a gambler playing a negative expected value game will eventually go broke, regardless of betting system. This is another corollary to Huygens' result.

[DublinMeUp]

Back to the potato fields with you Dub-dub.
BTW, your welcome for the torrent membership I gave you. I can see you've re-payed me quite nicely, wouldn't expect anything less. No need to dig up my past posts from several different threads. There are posts where you have been completely tooled as well, though I can't be bothered to spend valuable time like you do, searching around, re-reading pages and pages of your historical posts with a fine tooth comb looking for slip ups. How sad! Lets try and at least be a shred reasonable and stick to this thread, in the context of this conversation based on what I said...today. What did I just say? Is your memory that short? Let me repeat myself, and test your reading comprehension, I'm going to re-post what I posted this afternoon, and I want you to interpret that rather than go digging around bringing up contrary posts I've made in previous rants.

This is what I posted today...in this thread... that is directly relevant to the topic at hand. I even bolded it but apparently your brain is still unable to perceive these simple signals; strange.

Re-posted quote by me: "First of all, I'm aware that Kelly criterion advises one not to pass on any edge despite how tiny that edge may be."



You've said a lot of stupid shit that has made you look more than foolish and been called out on it by ppl on this board. I recall laughing at how bad you've been owned and watching you not have a clue how to respond because of how harshly you were roasted. Unfortunately I don't have the interest nor do I care to re-read your entire library of posts in order to find these comments, it's just not a very constructive use of my time (apparently that's what you like doing in your spare time). To re-cap I made you look like so much of a jackass today, that you had no way to intelligently respond other than re-reading all of my past posts desperately searching for something that didn't sound right, and that was your lame presentation of a rebuttal. In this thread none of my posts were arguing with any math or logic or telling people how to manage their bankrolls. I repeat, I've done the exact opposite of what you are accusing me of in clearly and explicitly recognizing that kelly does not advise passing up any edge no matter how tiny.

I am not arguing with this mathematical probability theory...

Got that you stupid dirt farmer.

You're so stupid you're confusing an optimal staking plan with an area of mathematics called probability (or statistics as your good friend thinks it is lol).

The only time I can think of was my first interaction with defacto admittedly caused by me due to a flippant jab at ImSmarter, considering he like you and wanna bet grabbed on to the potato "joke" like a dog with a bone I wouldn't consider it being tooled. Unfortunately i don't know what ethnicity he is and he rarely slips up in his posts so yeah its pretty tough to think of good comebacks based on a forum nick and a picture of Billy Batts. I decided to quit wasting both our time posting about Potatoes and Guinness, when you grow up you may understand this.

Please post any other situation.. I don't mind. (Oh wait nunya caught me with a good one yesterday, there was a comma in a place where it shouldn't have been, he really tooled me on that one though. @nunya)

I re-quoted those comments as again i tried to help and you acted like a retard, I suppose I should have considered that it may not be your fault, you know "stupid is as stupid does". You basically accuse me of not comprehending something and of lying.. I post evidence that neither of these are the case.

Yeah thanks for the invite, for those wondering I noticed him offer them within a few days of joining. Unfortunately he hadn't yet shown himself to be a drooling imbecile. I'm sure If i was stuck for an invite now there are people here who would gladly help and not childishly try to hold it over my head in an attempt to deflect from their own accumulating errors. Is it a coincidence that these people are also sound? (Sound is Irish slang for: easy to get along with, intelligent, funny etc)

Once again just in case you missed it, Kelly has nothing to do with expected value calculations.. trying to subtly prove your mathematical prowess by defining a staking strategy in a discussion regarding probability just goes to show you still have no clue and also doesn't fool anyone. Keep grasping though...

Lastly, You may notice my repeatedly referencing your stupidity. This is a service to you in that people who lack the basic cognitive skills to learn simple concepts generally benefit from repetition. In a sense they are more learning by heart than understanding the concept but it gets them through their lives.

[BIGDAY]

This is getting interesting.

[DeFactoCrippler]

This is getting interesting.

There can only be two outcomes.

1. Fosho14 crawls back in his hole and tries to come back in a few weeks like nothing happened.

2. He just starts insulting people.

[PunisherIND]

There can only be two outcomes.

1. Fosho14 crawls back in his hole and tries to come back in a few weeks like nothing happened.

2. He just starts insulting people.

To his credit, at least he doesn't ignore half the forum like wannabitch.

[PunisherIND]

Fosho, im not going to regurgitate the history as to why I don't like your boy. Suffice it to say, the kid attacked me bc I didn't understand why he didn't trust vaughany to be an escrow agent. And you know me fosho, I'm not one to sling gratuitous insults at people. The most delicious irony however, is that I actually defended this kid when he first joined the board. You know it's true bc I've stood up for you too.

[AdamB]

When you are saying this pick is a 5/5, are you referring to value or to your certainty in terms of the pick? Either way, for the Jordan/Kongo fight especially, I just don't understand. We're talking about a favourite (albeit a small favorite) who has been knocked out cold twice in his career, in a heavyweight fight, against someone with heavy hands. Even if you favour Jordan (I don't, personally) I don't see the value on betting on either fighter as the favourite, nor do I see how you can be that certain about the outcome of most heavyweight fights (with some exclusions - ie JDS/Mir).

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Pineda was -205 at one of my outs...pounded it!

[Vaughany]

Couture, son of Randy

[Crassus]

I admit that was pretty aggressive nut was mainly in jest. If you've seen my posts I'm not like that to ppl who treat me with respect. I've tried to be nice to gabe but he returns the favor by acting like a little prick back. Maybe I'm subconsciously sinking to his level who knows. At the end of the day who really takes this forum seriously anyway it is quite possibly the biggest train-wreck of filth I have ever seen.

Ouch man.

[Crassus]

That isn't fact, it's just your opinion, and a wrong one at that. Shawn Jordan is a more difficult opponent than Mark Hunt, Matt Mitrione, and Pat Barry. He is Kongo's hardest fight in a while. You couldn't have been more wrong about your "fact"

I hate to actually agree with fosho since he's been making an ass of himself but I definitely wouldn't say Shawn Jordan is on Mitrione or Hunt's level at the moment.

[NunyaBidness]

I have been announced by a few on here as being stupid because they think I don't understand what kelly criterion is, and they're too idiotic to realize that it's not that I don't understand the concept, but rather that I don't find it suited to my situation based on my bankroll and risk tolerance. I'm not telling nor advising anyone to do anything, it is critical that you get that through your head dephaggo.

You're proving more and more you don't understand anything.

Not passing on +EV bets is something any competent gambler would tell you to do. Kelly Criterion be damned.

[NunyaBidness]

Kelly Criterion is not a one size fits all system and I am more conscious/concerned about my risk of ruin relative to my bankroll than anything.

Kelly Criterion is mathematically proven to be the most optimal way to grow your bankroll, while at the same time reducing your ROR to 0. Zero, Zero, 0%, no chance. It is impossible to go broke while Kelly betting.

Also, "risk of ruin relative to my bankroll" doesn't mean anything. Risk of ruin is already talking about your bankroll.

[NunyaBidness]

No idiot, the point is that I don't care to risk money on zillions of bets that are +105 or even +110 when I've capped them at coin flips and the risk is incredibly volatile even though it is obvious that there is apparent +EV. This decision is based on my size of bankroll and risk of ruin. Go look up and read about risk of ruin, it's pretty evident you have no grasp of this concept

I really don't understand why so many people come to this forum and spout off advice and picks and act like its a level playing field, as if its impossible for someone to know more than anyone else on this subject. As if its simply matters of opinion.

Do you go to your doctor and get in his face about how CAT scans don't matter, because you have your own method of knowing whether or not you have a head injury (you might, btw)?

When I was just a dumb poker player and learning about sportsbetting, I didn't post a bunch of picks and give my advice on proper staking, I read and read and read all the geniuses who were already around. I posted stupid questions and got laughed at. I read the books that were recommended. I was years into my betting career before I ever gave out a piece of advice. And the best piece of advice I can give is, shut up and read.

[PunisherIND]

When I was just a dumb poker player and learning about sportsbetting, I didn't post a bunch of picks and give my advice on proper staking, I read and read and read all the geniuses who were already around. I posted stupid questions and got laughed at. I read the books that were recommended. I was years into my betting career before I ever gave out a piece of advice. And the best piece of advice I can give is, shut up and read.

THIS. fosho, you should heed this advice. i kind of feel for you because i'm new to this game also and im still learning. so i know where you are coming from in that respect. but when i see guys like nunya, dublin, and yes, DFC as well, giving advice on things that i'm not familiar with, i absolutely try to take advantage of it. you on the other hand, seem to get defensive and confrontational. can they educate you in a nicer fashion? sure. but the fact is, they dont even have to bother with you and take the time to explain how you can be doing things better. if you are truly trying to learn from this board, you are doing yourself a disservice by simply dismissing their advice.

[sideloaded]

so going off of your predictive mma model, does kelly tell you to bet 100 percent of your 10 dollar limits?

[DirtyX]

I think Lombard stands the best chance at beating Silva. Wiedman will get knocked out in the 1st or 2nd round like Cheal did.

What the f__k? Wiedman is obviously the number one contender, and is far superior to Lombard in all areas. I would even favor Weidman (slightly) over Anderson Silva due to his BJJ/College Wrestling combo that nobody else possesses. I'd prob. cap Weidman at -120/-140 over Anderson, although the line will favor Anderson no doubt, and I will pound Weidman. Weidman is a nightmare match up for Anderson, he is Chael, but with far greater striking and far greater BJJ. Chael has no BJJ and very little standup to speak of. Look at that pathetic spinning back fist he tried to land on Silva, and then look at Weidman's devastating elbow to Munoz's grill that dropped him.

[NunyaBidness]

so going off of your predictive mma model, does kelly tell you to bet 100 percent of your 10 dollar limits?

No, $10 bets are rare for me. If I get over $5, I find it hard to sleep at night.

[DirtyX]

It's okay, I'll keep picking my spots and profiting. Only major loss I've had in the past 6 months has been DHK's freak injury against maia.

I got f__ked on that injury too.

[Beelzebubzy]

Gabe is Mr Tate a lock?

[Crassus]

What the f__k? Wiedman is obviously the number one contender, and is far superior to Lombard in all areas. I would even favor Weidman (slightly) over Anderson Silva due to his BJJ/College Wrestling combo that nobody else possesses. I'd prob. cap Weidman at -120/-140 over Anderson, although the line will favor Anderson no doubt, and I will pound Weidman. Weidman is a nightmare match up for Anderson, he is Chael, but with far greater striking and far greater BJJ. Chael has no BJJ and very little standup to speak of. Look at that pathetic spinning back fist he tried to land on Silva, and then look at Weidman's devastating elbow to Munoz's grill that dropped him.

You'd make Weidman a favorite over Anderson Silva due to one impressive performance and some good credentials? Damn bro. That's confidence.

[Beelzebubzy]

Anderson will be the favorite. He more ways to win.

[gabe]

Based on their respective rankings analysts would make this assumption that on paper jordan is an average test for kongo compared to kongo being a tough test for Jordan but I guess this is subjective so your right it comes down to my opinion vs yours.

You said Jordan is worse than Mitrione, Hunt, and Pat Barry. I said you're wrong. Why are you bringing other things into it? Stay on topic. Nobody is arguing that Kongo isn't Jordan's biggest test. Quit saying the dumbest shit I've ever heard.

[getlucky2win]

I really don't understand why so many people come to this forum and spout off advice and picks and act like its a level playing field, as if its impossible for someone to know more than anyone else on this subject. As if its simply matters of opinion.

Do you go to your doctor and get in his face about how CAT scans don't matter, because you have your own method of knowing whether or not you have a head injury (you might, btw)?

When I was just a dumb poker player and learning about sportsbetting, I didn't post a bunch of picks and give my advice on proper staking, I read and read and read all the geniuses who were already around. I posted stupid questions and got laughed at. I read the books that were recommended. I was years into my betting career before I ever gave out a piece of advice. And the best piece of advice I can give is, shut up and read.

what is a good read 2 help us all make money betting mma? do you have specific websites or authors?

[gabe]

I hate to actually agree with fosho since he's been making an ass of himself but I definitely wouldn't say Shawn Jordan is on Mitrione or Hunt's level at the moment.

I think Jordan would beat both those guys. Hunt's only chance would be to catch him. They would both be outskilled. You guys aren't giving Shawn Jordan the respect he deserves, just like you weren't giving Lavar Johnson his respect when he was fighting Joey Beltran. Everybody here was on Beltran and I was the only one who took Lavar at +250. It was crazy, I often think I'm the only one here who sees the obvious, Siver over Nunes is another example.

Shawn Jordan should be able to win this fight. If he loses, it will be due to a brain fart. I even expect his cardio to be better than it's been in the past.

[gabe]

Gabe is Mr Tate a lock?

No, but I'll have him in a couple parlaysies

[NunyaBidness]

what is a good read 2 help us all make money betting mma? do you have specific websites or authors?

Specifically for MMA capping, not really. The only reason I post in the MMA forum instead of the others is that a) the people here are great and b) its the only sport I can stand watching. There is nothing really written on the subject of MMA betting. You can pick up some good handicapping knowledge by reading Jack Slack's articles, and the Judo Chops on bloodyelbow. I'm sure there's more and better out there, handicapping isn't my focus.

Sports betting in general is more interesting and important. If you do your homework in this area you'll realize you can use it to beat every sport, not just MMA. Pick up sharp sports betting, weighing the odds in sports betting, conquering risk. Read everything that Ganchrow has written, Rsigley, Justin7. Then take a stats course, then read everything again.

[getlucky2win]

thanks