Just put 10 units on Memphis +4.5 versus the Celtics on Sunday

[lakerboy]

I love these guys

[Kalibongo]

[rapidfire5]

....

[Deol]

The low ml of +162 at pinny tells me all i need to know.
Mem +4.5-110 (10x)

It's telling you that your an idiot. I'm noticing an interesting trend, whenever you create a separate thread with extreme confidence in a game you end up losing at a very high rate. Perhaps stick your single thread and maybe things will turn out better.

[bleek88]

I have been waiting for this game all week. Mem is a perfect defensive matchup for the off challenged celtics. Mem will suffocate the c's here and i would not be surprised at all if mem won su here. The low ml of +162 at pinny tells me all i need to know.


Mem +4.5-110 (10x)

You failed 10 units bro..

[Kalibongo]

Monday morning quarterbacking.

[lakerboy]

It's telling you that your an idiot. I'm noticing an interesting trend, whenever you create a separate thread with extreme confidence in a game you end up losing at a very high rate. Perhaps stick your single thread and maybe things will turn out better.

Yeah your right. Kinda like the heat thread the other day right?

[Speedy88]

It's telling you that your an idiot. I'm noticing an interesting trend, whenever you create a separate thread with extreme confidence in a game you end up losing at a very high rate. Perhaps stick your single thread and maybe things will turn out better.

disagree. LB made "Heat -2" against the 76ers just a few days ago and that covered with ease.

[cleaveland]

at least you are echoing what I had said previously.

it really does amaze me how so many on here are clueless to this sentiment. guess Vegas has to pay for those hotels somehow.

save the matchup talk for college sports. has no bearing in NBA

Remember when the #8 seeded Warriors upset the #1 seeded Mavericks several years ago? It was because of match-ups and that kind of thing has happened in the playoffs many times.

I couldn't figure out who would still be taking the Mavericks -2 in game 6 at the Warriors when the Warriors had proven that they had the Mavericks number (because of match-ups) not only all season but in that playoff series too. Now I know what type of bettor was taking that horrible bet. You learn something everyday.

[PR9]

Remember when the #8 seeded Warriors upset the #1 seeded Mavericks several years ago? It was because of match-ups and that kind of thing has happened in the playoffs many times.

I couldn't figure out who would still be taking the Mavericks -2 in game 6 at the Warriors when the Warriors had proven that they had the Mavericks number (because of match-ups) not only all season but in that playoff series too. Now I know what type of bettor was taking that horrible bet. You learn something everyday.

a playoff series is totally different than regular season basketball with hundreds of different matchups and spots every week.

a playoff series is more about matchups as both teams are honed in with alot more film study leading up to said 2-week series.. with more days off in between games (2 and 3 days off between games) and nothing to look forward to or back on than each other.

postseason basketball is an entirely different animal than regular season basketball. They're almost different sports altogether (hence why Denver will always have trouble winning a playoff series the way their team is built ,, as it's not built for playoff success in a traditional sense-- but they will have no problem winning a great majority of their regular season games)

[Love The Action]

People like LTA

You mean other long term winners I assume.

People like LTA can talk about all the matchup advantages until they're blue in the face.

The fact of the matter is a bad spot (capsule) for a game, overrides any of that far more often than not in the NBA.

Just look at last night and the night before, you will see more evidence of that than you can handle.

I believe you need to look at both quantitative and qualitative analysis when capping a game. That means that both stats and situational analysis needs to be considered. Consequently, that is what I use to formulate a play by employing my model for the quantitative analysis and then applying situational factors to the numbers I project. All of this is shown on a daily basis in my thread. Therefore, any implication that I do not use situational analysis in my capping is both inaccurate and irresponsible. It seems like a lot of your posts are critical of other posters and their plays recently which just strikes me as a bit hypocritical considering you don't have the confidence to keep a public record of your own.

[GoBlue77]

a playoff series is totally different than regular season basketball with hundreds of different matchups and spots every week.

a playoff series is more about matchups as both teams are honed in with alot more film study leading up to said 2-week series.. with more days off in between games (2 and 3 days off between games) and nothing to look forward to or back on than each other.

postseason basketball is an entirely different animal than regular season basketball. They're almost different sports altogether (hence why Denver will always have trouble winning a playoff series the way their team is built ,, as it's not built for playoff success in a traditional sense-- but they will have no problem winning a great majority of their regular season games)

bingo. somebody gets it. playoffs are a totally different beast. players actually put effort into those games. reg season, not so much..

[cleaveland]

bingo. somebody gets it. playoffs are a totally different beast. players actually put effort into those games. reg season, not so much..

However, the Warriors dominated the Mavs during the regular season too.

John Hollinger has shown statistically that the #1 factor in predicting first round upsets is regular season performance between the two teams. When an underdog in the first round won the season series against the favorite they have a much higher probability of winning the first round series (regardless of seeding). See the #8 Grizzlies beating the #1 Spurs and the Hawks winning as a +400 dog, those are recent examples of this very thing.

When the underdog lost the season series their chances of a first round upset are low (again, regardless of seeding). It's happened that way for decades, check out his research.

He has his reasons for way this is the case but I think it comes down to match-ups as well as momentum and confidence. Just keep believing what you want, it doesn't matter to me. If you want to see it through a new set of eyes, check out Hollinger's research.