Any thoughts on Chicago -13.5 tonight ??

[PR9]

(Going off the "Denver -13" thread))..

I think Chicago -13.5 might be a better bet tonight.

The ML already hit -2000... and we all remember the last time a ML went to -2000 and beyond when Miami spanked Charlotte by 39 points after the ML hit -2000, then -2200 & -2350 before tipoff ;-)

Denver ML is at -1300 for basically the same point spread (-13 to 13.5 = a -700 difference in ML ?)

*numbers from greek (greek shot up from -2200 to -2350 ten minutes before the miami/charlotte tipoff that night ( after it was at -2000 for most of the day).. i immediately placed 5 units on miami to cover the -14.5 when i saw the -2200 move and then the -2350 ML final jump , they won by 39 ;-)

And greek went from -11 to -11.5 six minutes before the Portland/Cleveland game last night. That's when I placed 5 units on Port.. and then an additional 5 units on Port -4 2H knowing what a very strong 2nd half team they are (especially at home) and still had a 7 point lead after the 1st despite shooting around 20%

same thing happened right before knicks/bobcats game BIGTIME (in bobcats favor), and before SA/Dallas in SA's favor when they blew dallas out.. OKC moves half point last night right before tipoff vs Spurs, OKC covers easily and the final score wasn't indicative of how much better OKC was in that game. Same thing happened when Portland moved from -5.5 to -6 right before tipoff at home vs Denver, Port covers...and many MANY more examples ;-)


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[Gambler#1]

You just write and the line immediately jumped up lol..(14 in bet365)

There is no reason that Chicago not crush them,waht you say on the total..over look very good..

BOL PR9

[brahmabull117]

this is actually a very sharp line - bulls win by about 10-17

[PR9]

Only concern is chicago already blew out the pistons.

This thread isn't about who to pick, or who to go with 100%, as nothing in life is 100%. There is no guarantee you or I will even be alive tomorrow. Hell, there is no guarantee you or I will be alive tonight. Either of us could walk outside that door, cross the street and get nailed by a drunk driver or someone insane.

So NOTHING is guaranteed in life, never mind a game or a sporting event with humans (not robots) involved.

With that said, this thread is more about reading lines, and what to take from it.. it's more about the percentages, line movement., and trends,

ps- Just under 90% of the +/- ML between 165 and 175 have covered this year. It doesn't matter what side + or - those numbers are on, whichever team had numbers between 165 and 175 have covered, PERIOD. The actual percentage is in the high 80's. Last team to do it was Denver covering, they were +170 ML in that one vs the spurs two nights ago ;-) .. so of course i took DEN +4.5 as this trend has made me a lot of $$ this season already



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[Gambler#1]

PR9 so what you say here is that ML +170 its good to go on the +HC?

&&&

You say: This thread isn't about who to pick
And afte yu say: this thread is more about reading lines, and what to take from it
So: Pick and Take ,they do not have the same meaning? lol

&&& And I do not know how you figure that anybody would think that in this thread you give a 100% bet ? Probably a misunderstanding..

And another thing .. I can tell you something real?, You are insane ... in a good way .. everyone can learn from you a lot about gambling

[PR9]

it could be 165, or 175.. and anything in between.

Hell, it could even be a ridiculous ML you never see like 168.. believe it or not, about 5 nights ago a team had a ML of 168. I laid LARGE on it !! And of course, they covered such an odd line. Vegas tells you who is going to win or cover a lot of the time by just the lines.

I talked about this 165-175 trend a few days ago. What I have said here is nothing new. Everything I said in my first post, and in the 2nd one, I have stated many times on this board (people who have followed my posts know that)..

In fact, here you go.. here is one thread of many for you to peruse, from Jan 5th ;-)

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1493705-dallas-3-portland-3-5-plays-thursday-p2.html#post13108327

Tip of the day:

80 - 90% of the ML bets this year that had a number between 165 and 175 have won. Portland has been hovering between -165 AND -170 ALL NIGHT AND DAY..

Memphis was at 170 - 175 yesterday and right at +168 a half-hour before gametime at The Greek. The minute I saw that odd number (one-fukking sixty-eight ?) , along with betingwizard and his money squares, I placed 5 units on that bitch !

I study this shit like einstein on relativity.


;-)

AND:

Miami was +170 from 30 minutes before game time until tipoff..


That's when I knew they'd cover the 4 points ;-)


Thank you Portland and Miami. Like taking candy from a baby. Spurs line movement right before the game told everyone they would win too.


Easy money !!!!

[Gambler#1]

cool man now i chek every day....
but tonight we dont have this ML so we need to move forward..
Now on the Total..opening line was 175.5 and now he jumped by 3pt..
Now is not that Chicago can not stop Detroit on low score..she already did it to Memphis and Atlanta (66-74)
so mybe is good to fade everone that go on the over(91% on vegasinsider) or mybe take Under pistons...
what your thoughts..

[PR9]

&&& And I do not know how you figure that anybody would think that in this thread you give a 100% bet ? Probably a misunderstanding.

Because I feel absolutely horrible about the fact that a good guy like speedy lost $$ yesterday by betting Sac 2H when I was on Sac for the whole game at +7. He was going to bet the full game but forgot the game started at 6:10pm EST, so he went ahead and bet 2H going by my initial play. He lost the denver NFL game earlier (not from me as I had no opinion on that NFL game whatsoever at anytime)... then he lost the 2H by -half a point- because he didnt go in on the full game.. if he went full game, it would have been a push and he wouldnt have lost anything.

So instances like that is why i say that nothing in life is 100% or guaranteed. Because it makes me feel absolutely terrible, and it really hurts inside that someone lost some money because of one of my picks. Even though yesterday was a good & profitable day overall, it was a very down day for me knowing that someone out there was not feeling good at that moment because of one of my plays.

But at the same time I feel obligated to educate people on certain trends and line movement.. to help others. So its a fine line there and I dont mean to confuse anybody... simple as that

.

[Gambler#1]

You do not need to carry other people's mistakes, you're an amazing guy who helps everyone

I believe that speedy is not a little boy and smart enough to handle his own problems..

When you put to other money in his pocket, you're good, but when you're losing, you're not good? Only greedy people can say bad things about you...

[dshaffe4]

It could go either way when laying 14 pts to any team in an NBA game, with that said i still like the Bulls to cover.

[Speedy88]

Because I feel absolutely horrible about the fact that a good guy like speedy lost $$ yesterday by betting Sac 2H when I was on Sac for the whole game at +7. He was going to bet the full game but forgot the game started at 6:10pm EST, so he went ahead and bet 2H going by my initial play. He lost the denver NFL game earlier (not from me as I had no opinion on that NFL game whatsoever at anytime)... then he lost the 2H by -half a point- because he didnt go in on the full game.. if he went full game, it would have been a push and he wouldnt have lost anything. So instances like that is why i say that nothing in life is 100% or guaranteed. Because it makes me feel absolutely terrible, and it really hurts inside that someone lost some money because of one of my picks. Even though yesterday was a good & profitable day overall, it was a very down day for me knowing that someone out there was not feeling good at that moment because of one of my plays. But at the same time I feel obligated to educate people on certain trends and line movement.. to help others. So its a fine line there and I dont mean to confuse anybody... simple as that .

Yeah yesterday was a bit of a bummer. Overall I made out okay thanks to both LAL and OKC covering. But it would have been nice to have pushed on the Sac+7.

Are you gonna post your plays for tonight? Curious to see what your plays/leans are for today, card looks pretty tough today, but tomorrow should be a big day. I'm thinking of taking it easy tonight because of the big card for tomorrow. Right now I kind of like the Nets +5.5 and maybe even NJ ML. I think this could be one of those big let down games for the Hawks. I don't even know what to think of that 76ers/Pacers game with all the injuries for Indi. And I like Denver -13 a lot too. They don't seem to have much trouble covering spreads of double digits.

[Yezzir]

It's my only NBA bet tonight. Bulls -13.5.

Although i'm very close to pulling the trigger for Nets ML.. Can see it being their first win, Hawks have been known to falter in spots like this.

[PR9]

It's my only NBA bet tonight. Bulls -13.5.

Although i'm very close to pulling the trigger for Nets ML.. Can see it being their first win, Hawks have been known to falter in spots like this.

I may lay off the Bulls totally. But I am really, REALLY feelin the Nets tonight. Heavy lean, which may turn into a heavy bet.

And I pointed out the reasons within my posts in the following thread down the page ;-)

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1502711-how-do-hawks-lose-against-jersey-tonight.html

Outlined it in 2 posts total. But mostly my 2nd post further down the page.

[Hollywood@Philly]

IMO, the Bulls line is high... however that being said.. the Pistons flat out stink.. but there are many better winnable games on the board.

[Yezzir]

I may lay off the Bulls totally. But I am really, REALLY feelin the Nets tonight. Heavy lean, which may turn into a heavy bet.

And I pointed out the reasons within my posts in the following thread down the page ;-)

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1502711-how-do-hawks-lose-against-jersey-tonight.html

Outlined it in 2 posts total. But mostly my 2nd post further down the page.

I've pulled the trigger, it's what stuck out for me to begin with, along with Bulls.

1x for both.

I realise it's high, but Pistons are 0-3 ATS on the road.. also Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 at home to the Pistons, I know people usually tend to buck these trends, but Bulls are just a flat out superior team.

[Avenger]

If I had to bet this game, it'd be Bulls 2H IF Bulls 1H doesn't cover the spread already.

Anyone who watches the game know Bulls can blow them out, that's not the problem. The problem is the back door cover.

Rarely does a team blowout both halves. I'm banking they blow the 2H for an exciting finish to the game.

BOL. Let's get this!

[Speedy88]

I may lay off the Bulls totally. But I am really, REALLY feelin the Nets tonight. Heavy lean, which may turn into a heavy bet. And I pointed out the reasons within my posts in the following thread down the page ;-) http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...y-tonight.html Outlined it in 2 posts total. But mostly my 2nd post further down the page.

Glad to see your on Nets as well. This is a perfect set up for a huge let down for ATL. Coming off a big win at home against the Bulls, and now going up against a bad Nets team. Gonna play Nets +6 (free 1/2 point) and thinking about laying a small amount on Nets ML. And your totally spot on about Vegas trying to dare people to jump on ATL.

You got any other plays today PR?

[squid44]

love the insight here on the nets ATL game. I had a long day today at work so spent less time capping- might hafta follow your lead tonight and go with NJ and the points. The line is just too fishy.. bol man!

[PR9]

At bookmaker, the Chicago ML just went from -2000 to -2300 then suddenly down to -1500

[NB-Ace]

^Forgive me for being slow but what's that indicate?

[therealdealau]

PR9 after reading many of your posts and following your insights and some of your posted plays i must say you are an intelligent dude and you know your ball. If i might request the following i hope it is not too much of an ask but could you make a thread and track your plays? its really hard to find your plays going through your posts and i really respect and rate your analysis on the games, it has really helped me pull the trigger on bets and lay off ones i was iffy about (cavs yesterday for example, i wanted to pull the trigger on them +10.5 but you gave a really good analysis about portland), cheers.

[M.W.]

The Bulls' offense is pitiful.

[PR9]

I really hate to be the type of guy who says I told you so..

but..

As I said from the outset , The Bulls were the better play today of the two -13 opening line home favorites. The Bulls more than covered the big spread , and meanwhile, the Nuggets are down 8 points at halftime.

And yesterday, when everyone was groveling the Wiz as the underdog of the day, I was trying to tell people all day long that in fact it was the Kings that were the underdog of the day.

Now granted, the Kings pushed, they didnt cover, but its still a hell of a lot better getting your money back on a push rather than losing it altogether in a blowout ;-)


to everyone and all the good folks on this board !!

[bbhcf]

The Bulls' offense is pitiful.

Tonight it was, but it's one of the best in the league with Hamilton in the lineup

[Gambler#1]

You're the best
Great job

Waiting to hear what you think about tomorrow..
Philadelphia will play for the fourth time in a row if I'm not mistaken, the line is very tempting, and I believe many people will go with Philly,so maybe go the other way ... Sacramento can cover a 10 point line..

[Speedy88]

You're the best Great job Waiting to hear what you think about tomorrow.. Philadelphia will play for the fourth time in a row if I'm not mistaken, the line is very tempting, and I believe many people will go with Philly,so maybe go the other way ... Sacramento can cover a 10 point line..

Definitely want to look into this game more. Philly has been covering everything lately, but the Kings seem to be much more focused since the firing of Paul Wesphal. They should have covered yesterday. Kings are just very hard to bet on because they are such an up and down team, and they have been horrible away from Arco Arena (0-3 on the road).

[PR9]

You're the best
Great job

Waiting to hear what you think about tomorrow..
Philadelphia will play for the fourth time in a row if I'm not mistaken, the line is very tempting, and I believe many people will go with Philly,so maybe go the other way ... Sacramento can cover a 10 point line..

thanks for the kind words man.


but re the rest of what you wrote. I need some sleep first ! lol

[manutd19]

Nice

[Yezzir]

Pheww.. Just got it, was out of this and Denver, chose the right one.

Nets ML was always worth a gamble imo.. nearly got there.