EP36's 2nd Half Possession Formula Picks

inn_keeper · 01-12-12, 09:44 PM

Not looking good..

ksnooksk · 01-12-12, 09:45 PM

nope, its not. Bobcats have scored in 4 minutes I think.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-12, 09:46 PM

Only needed 9 points in the last 2:40 or so and got like five. Terrible.

UpsetSpecial09 · 01-12-12, 09:48 PM

That was absurd!! Bobcats basically gave up! 88 points...that easily should have hit. I get that they were down big, but to not even care, seriously, and they wonder why they are garbage!

ksnooksk · 01-12-12, 09:48 PM

Yeah, the Bobcats missed two easy put backs on the offensive end during those last 2 minutes.

dymd3z · 01-12-12, 09:54 PM

Pathetic to say the least ...

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-12, 10:00 PM

It's funny, seems like when the overs miss it's really close and painful ..

Not gonna be around for Cavs-Suns, but will look at Magic-Warriors and hopefully we can finish strong.

dymd3z · 01-12-12, 10:04 PM

What yall think about Orlando @ Golden State tonight?

inn_keeper · 01-12-12, 10:06 PM

I'm locked in at Under 188 but not sure about a side.

mikea33 · 01-12-12, 10:08 PM

under and g state thats my 2 cents (or 500 dollars

)

inn_keeper · 01-12-12, 10:10 PM

So if my math is correct there were 98 possessions in CLE PHX, making the ratio of points to possessions over 1:1. Wonder what the 2H total will be set at.

mikea33 · 01-12-12, 10:13 PM

98.5

pretty spot on.
pace slowed down in 2nd and 55% 11 for 20 from 3, i dont think that holds up personally i am tempted to take under

inn_keeper · 01-12-12, 10:14 PM

Any thoughts on O/U 98.5 dydm?

dymd3z · 01-12-12, 10:29 PM

too close to call inn_

dymd3z · 01-12-12, 10:47 PM

shot you a PM inn_

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-12, 11:55 PM

Magic-Warriors Over 93 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 01-13-12, 06:19 AM

Well with better luck, would have been 2-0. At least the last one was an easy one. 1-1.

Regular Season Record: 26-21-1 [+3.00]

EaglesPhan36 · 01-15-12, 10:12 PM

1.15.12

Suns-Spurs Over 98.5 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 01-15-12, 11:28 PM

That totally crashed in the last 3 minutes. Fukk.

sbearc820 · 01-15-12, 11:31 PM

The ending to that game is just sick... It makes me think the NBA is fixed.. I had the suns plus 9.. they just quit

mattberg · 01-16-12, 12:24 AM

Curious as to why the Suns/Spurs was a play on the over?

Total points: 98

According to your forumla total possessions:

(47 + 46 - 4 -3 + 7 + 4) + ( (12 + 6) * 0.475) = 105.55

So that would indicate points per possession < 1. Half-time line was 98.5, wouldn't the play be on the under?

Honestly just curious about your formula, it sounds very interesting, just trying to understand how it works.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-16-12, 03:11 PM

I'll try to explain later when I have some time, trying to work the half times for this batch of games right now ...

EaglesPhan36 · 01-16-12, 03:18 PM

1.16.12

Cavs-Bobcats Over 96.5 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 01-16-12, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by mattberg

Curious as to why the Suns/Spurs was a play on the over? Total points: 98 According to your forumla total possessions: (47 + 46 - 4 -3 + 7 + 4) + ( (12 + 6) * 0.475) = 105.55 So that would indicate points per possession < 1. Half-time line was 98.5, wouldn't the play be on the under? Honestly just curious about your formula, it sounds very interesting, just trying to understand how it works.

Okay here's a quick look if I can try to explain it. What I am looking for first and foremost are games where the 2nd half totals are set well off the estimated # of possessions for the 2nd half. By "well" off in most cases, I'm talking 4-5 which is big in those cases. The game you have quoted there is an example. The # of 1st half possessions was 105. Yes, the ratio or pts per possession was slightly lower than 1:1 - but not a large disparity. Any game that has a ratio that is close on either side of 1:1, usually is going to stick around that 1:1 number more or less or that's the prediction. So in this case when we add in the estimated +5 possessions for a 2nd half to get 110, that is where I am looking to compare that number with the 2nd half total set. Set at 98.5, that was more than 10 off the estimated # of 2nd half possessions toward the OVER. Even if you have a ratio under 1:1 in the 2nd half somewhere close to the ratio of the 1st half, you would expect with 110 possessions that you would probably beat 98.5 on the over side or again, that is the prediction.

Basically, the ratio of pts per possession is only part of what I am looking at. I don't automatically think under or over based solely on that number. It's that, the 2nd half line and the estimated # of possessions and then obviously looking at the stats to see if teams are red hot or ice cold and trying to figure out what might happen in the 2nd half. It's all speculative at the end of the day, but some games offer bigger edges in one direction or the other. Hope that helps a little and isn't too confusing.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-16-12, 04:07 PM

These games drive me batty. Points all over and then we go to the Mohave desert for part of a quarter. Only needed 44 pts in the 4th to get this over and they have 12 five minutes in.

dymd3z · 01-16-12, 04:15 PM

Man this Port/NO is way off the mark, the formula says play the under But IDK....

dymd3z · 01-16-12, 04:32 PM

4 for 4 so far today on 2h plays..

dymd3z · 01-16-12, 05:15 PM

Tor/Atl 2h Over 88.5 ?

EaglesPhan36 · 01-16-12, 05:23 PM

Raptors-Hawks Over 88.5
Yep.

ksnooksk · 01-16-12, 05:30 PM

Yep...the Over is the right play. Lets cash this!

ksnooksk · 01-16-12, 06:06 PM

Great 3rd quarter followed by an awful 4th quarter. Going to be close and it shouldnt have been.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-16-12, 06:12 PM

These games are killing me with the way they are flowing from quarter to quarter. Think we are owed one after that turd earlier.

No chance this makes it. Zero fukkin points Toronto?

ksnooksk · 01-16-12, 06:21 PM

15 points in 8 minutes

hawley · 01-16-12, 06:21 PM

this is fukkn horse shit.

sbearc820 · 01-16-12, 06:27 PM

The NBA is killing me.... In all aspects... These players are worthless