Been using this formula for college hoops plays this season for 2nd halves and will now be applying it to some NBA games as well to see how it holds up. So far in the pre-season, it has worked out well.
The basics for anyone who cares:
At half time, use this formula to calculate # of possessions.
Total (FGAs - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers) + (FTAs x 0.475)
This gets you a close estimate of the # of possessions in the 1st half. Then compare to the # of points scored to determine if the points per possession is more or less than one point per possession.
Then I look at the total the book hangs at the half. For example, last night's Denver-Phoenix game had 113 1st half possession and the points per possession were right about 1:1. Book set the line at 104.5. That indicates a sure play on the over.
Late game: Golden State-Sacramento had 100 1st half possessions with the game total at half time at 90. That indicated a less than 1:1 ratio for points per possession. Books set the half time line at 104. That indicated a sure play on the under.
So those are the basics for how I am working this formula for 2nd halves. Not saying it is perfect, but it has yielded some pretty decent returns in college hoops and held up with the four games I tested out in the NBA preseason so far. As with all formulas/systems/whatever, it's not perfect - but hopefully will provide us with some useful info and solid picks. Tail. Fade. You do what you want, just trying to provide some info with this thread. Will not play all games, only the ones I am able to work the formula on that have a clear edge.
Will sample out a few tonight if time is available.
better win this!
