The NBA 2011-2012 Season Picks with John Ryan

[John Ryan]

What is a "Titan" play mean? I never heard of that term in Sportsbooks terms. Just curious if anyone knows.

Titan is just a term .. That's all.. shows strength and confidence..

anyway,

5* OVER Jazz/SA 199 1/2 -110

[John Ryan]

10 star la lakers -5 1/2 -110

[Uniden]

Boy John,

It is really a tough go for you!!!! It has gotten to a point where I have made more money doing the opposite. The Lakers just laid down....again. They are basically a lazy team and Bynum is just a lazy bum. Guy never tries hard but is good at getting Teed up!! I do hope Denver takes care of them!!

Got to like the OVER in the Memphis game tonight!

[John Ryan]

Uniden, you are right, this has been a tough stretch. HOWEVER

5* OVER Knicks/Heat 183 -110
5* Knicks plus the 12 points -110

[John Ryan]

Ah. The Players Championship is finally here and I do believe there are some strong opportunities to exploit in this great event. I have played the course and although there are some brutal holes, like no. 13, a par 3 where you will see more three jacks than any other hole, the course doesn’t always reward the big power hitter. In fact, the there is a somewhat false belief that it is a course that rewards driving accuracy versus booking length. I have played the course and it is my single favorite one. What it does require is all of the shots. Booking length on some holes and smart low riding hook son others. Common sense is rewarded, but a golfer has to know when to load up the arsenal and go for it. Last year’s winner K.J. Choi was ranked 134th in driving distance and 91st in accuracy. The 2010 winner was Tim Clark, who ranked 188th in driving distance and fourth in driving accuracy. The 2009 winner was Henrik Stenson, who ranked 83rd in driving distance and 57th in driving accuracy. In 2008 Sergio Garcia won the event and was ranked 43rd in driving distance and 153rd in driving accuracy and 2007 was won my Mickelson. who ranked 43rd in driving distance and 1581st in driving accuracy. So, it is not necessarily about big time length or microscopic accuracy. It is about knowing what shot the course is demanding and go with it. The greens will be faster than fast with the cooler than normal temperatures and each has tremendous undulations. The 13th as mentioned though is a roller coaster and the average length putt of greens hit in regulation for the entire tournament history has been 45 feet. One stat that I think produces players, who can enjoy four days of golf at Sawgrass are the ones, who hit the highest percentage of drives in the 260 to 280 range. This means that many of these players are hitting stinging two irons, hybrids, and three woods off the tee to gain position. Believe me when I tell you that at Sawgrass, you can be in the fairway and staring down boget before even hitting the approach shot. Accuracy and intelligence are a must and of course LUCK. Luke Donald ranks third in this category and I like him to win at 14:1. Graham McDowell at 66:1 is a long shot, but a very accurate and pur striker of the golf ball and winner of the 2010 US Open. And for a super long shot John Mallinger, who is leading most tour stats in driving accuracy and iron play. He has never won a tour event, but if he can manage the greens, he is a legitimate contender. In head-to-head matchups I like McIlroy -130 over Westwood. He has tremendous length even with a three iron off the tee and is the NO.1 ranked golfer in the world. Luke Donald over Lee Westwood. and my third play is to take Mickelson -125 over Tiger Woods. Woods is nowhere close to being able to handle this course given his errant driving. At the Masters you can spray it around, but at the Players, such shots will penalized the more mishit they are. Best of luck to every one.

[John Ryan]

Got a push with the Knicks yesterday and a winner with the total.

Tonight, i like a 10* Play OVER Boston/Atlanta.
I truly believe that the Hawks will have to force the pace of play if they are looking to have a Game 7. Pierce is listed as probable with a knee injury. The age of the Celtics concerns me as well. They defied those facts in the last game as the Hawks could not hit sand if they fell off a camel - when it mattered most in the early part of the game.

I also think Atlanta will come flying out of the gate in this game. Taking the first half line playing the Hawks is an attractive wager for your consideration.

[5mike5]

thanks for the insight john!

[John Ryan]

thanks for the insight john!

An example of how good analysis of a game does not always equate tow inning ticket.

with Paul and Griffin game time decision, I just do not see any opportunity. I definitely do not like a skinny road favorite in the Grizzlies, who are far better in home tilts. And you have to believe that Griffin will be ready to go and that Paul, with a groin pull, is suspect at best.

I would not be surprised to see the Clippers keep Paul out of the game until absolutely necessary. If they can somehow win without him, which is a reach, then that only makes sense longer term. If they would elect to do this, then I would play the Clippers for the first half. Contrarian betting 101. The line will move just prior to tip if Paul is not starting and you will get a very attractive level to take the Clippers for the first half.. If the line did move to +4 1/2 for the game - even on news that Paul or Griffin is out, then I would grab it. If both players are out the I would do nothing. And, as mentioned, if both start I would stand aside as well. The advantage would be to fade the line movement of a game time decision.

[John Ryan]

10 star Memphis -110 in game 7 against clippers.

[John Ryan]

Clippers are 1-11 ats when they covered as a dog but lost the game spanning the last two seasons.

[chief42]

Overall
5* 68-65-3 (one 5* was +145 ml winner)
10* 14-17
20* 2-2

Playoffs
5* 5-4-1 (+145 ml winner)
10* 1-6

[John Ryan]

ok. for tonight. 5* Philadelphia 76ers + 4 1/2 -110
and 5* OVER Philadelphia/Boston lined at 174 -110

research on the side selection is on the site. Thanks..

http://www.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball/free-picks/76-ers-vs-celtics-game-2-nba-picks-a-24837/

[John Ryan]

10 star clippers plus the points. +11 -110

[John Ryan]

I like the Pacers tomorrow night for a 10* play. Report is up already on the site. let's discuss these matchups. i would be very interested to know if you see this game the same as I do. It has been made into a two-on-five scenario with Bosh out. I think Miami is in deep trouble.

[John Ryan]

Tonight, I like the 76ers -2 -110 for a 5* Play... Boston looks very tired and the 76ers emanate with extreme confidence. Boston extreme doubt and fatigue. Iguadola will be guarding Pierce and will frustrate the day lights out of him. The 76ers will not need a double team and can then double team Rondo, who is not a great ball handler as we have seen.

[justwinthisone]

Tonight, I like the 76ers -2 -110 for a 5* Play... Boston looks very tired and the 76ers emanate with extreme confidence. Boston extreme doubt and fatigue. Iguadola will be guarding Pierce and will frustrate the day lights out of him. The 76ers will not need a double team and can then double team Rondo, who is not a great ball handler as we have seen.

I don't think it's that they look tired....they r not coming out with any sence of urgancy.....they are just going through the motions right now....I hope now that they lost 1 to Philly they will wake the fck up.....I would wish u luck but I am a Celtic fan....

[John Ryan]

10* Pacers and a 5* UNDER - research is on the site.

[John Ryan]

cashed those two shown above.

I have a 20* Titan on the 76ers as they play host the Boston Celtics set to start at 8:05 PM ET. Research, a lot of it, is on the site. Thanks and I would appreciate comments about this game if you think the Lakers are done after that horrid loss in Game 2.

[big cheyo]

wow i thought it was over at half time but alot of things happen

[Winning oasis]

You're on a roll brother. Good hits the past couple days!

[John Ryan]

wow i thought it was over at half time but alot of things happen

Thanks.. that second half really showed ho OLD the Celtics have become. 76ers could win tho series.

[Kasht]

You rolling with the Spurs today or do you see the Clippers making a comeback? I don't, but after watching the Lakers game last night, ANYTHING can happen!

[John Ryan]

You rolling with the Spurs today or do you see the Clippers making a comeback? I don't, but after watching the Lakers game last night, ANYTHING can happen!

Thunder win tonight. Lakers have not win a road elimination game in more than 10 years. They had to have everything go their way and it just has not worked out for them. I will go on record as saying the Spurs will get a rude awakening from the Thunder. The Thunder have several weapons, but one that the Lakers do not have and that is a point guard named Westbrook. More on this later. I would highly recommend a play on the Thunder to advance to the finals in the series against Spurs.

[John Ryan]

I also think the 76ers have a very real chance to win tonight. They are more athletic, younger, quicker, and play a cohesive type of team ball. Just look at the +- numbers for the bench players. 76ers bench as been a very real problem for the Celtics and i think they will give them an even greater problem tonight. Think about this, who recovers faster with two days rest? A young athletic team, or an old one that was truly gassed in the fourth quarter of the previous game. My answer is the 76ers. How about yours?

[John Ryan]

20* graded play on the Pacers..

Pacers vs. Heat in Game 5: NBA Pick

[drew2]

thanks for the pick john

[Uniden]

JR,
I have been trying to understand how you could possibly tell people to take Indiana as a 20 STAR play, OTR!!! Miami was in a pissed off mood for the last game. Now, they come home in a tough spot, must win, and you tell people to take Indiana as a 20 STAR play!!! Seriously!!! Have you watched Miami at home! Come on JR, that was a bad play and definitley did not warrant a 20 star play. To be perfectly honest, your record is just like it was in the NCAA games. Not very good. I did back you earlier as I know it everyone has ups and downs, but dude, you have definitely had more downs than ups over the past three months. It has been fun and profitable fading your picks lately. SO from my perspective, keep up the good work!

[John Ryan]

I like a 5* play UNDER 175 1/2 -110 for Game 6 of the Philadelphia-Boaston matchup.

On a quick turnaround, it is imperative that the 76ers Iguodala goes after Pierce at both ends of the court. He cannot given Pierce any room and will play a velcro like defense on him. Pierce is banged up and 34-years old and Iguodala has superior foot and hand speed that can minimize Pierce’s impact on the game. In Game 5 the 76ers were caught settling for jump shots instead of attacking the rim. In the games they have won this playoff season, it has been with aggressive drives into the pain and either passing the ball off to a cutter for a dunk or going to the rim and scoring or getting fouled. The 76ers must do a great job in the third quarter to establish the dominance for the remainder of the game. They had the Celtics on the ropes in game 5 and failed to execute the game plan in the third period. The winner of the third period has won the first five games of the series. The 76ers will use a trap on Rondo forcing him to give up the ball before he gets into the pick-and-roll half court set. If nothing else, it will serve to shorten the shot clock by forcing the Celtic to find a way to pass the ball back to him.

All of this portends itself to a grinding physical style of game. So, the UNDER is the play in my opinion.

[Uniden]

And now a different perspective. Boston leads the series 3-2. They want AND need to end this series ASAP as they need the rest. On the otherhand, Phili is now at home and MUST win this game to even the series. Phili is a younger, quicker and stronger team and will play very physical and lose. I think this exactly the opposite!!! It will go over the total, in my humble opinion. Either way, I agree with JR here at a 5 start play.

Best of luck to all.

Uniden

[Uniden]

Good call JR!!! That was not even close to going OVER!!!! I really did think the scoring was going to be more like the second half!! You were also right about the 5 star rating on that play. I only lost a little tonight!

Good to see you back on the win side sir!

Uniden

[John Ryan]

5* star over pacers heat. 182. -110

[John Ryan]

A bit of a contrarian taste to this play Snothe public sentiment expects a very physical slow grinding game similar to what we saw with the 76ers last night. Howev, if the Pacersbare to win this game which I think they will, then they will be pushing thepacenof play. They have big advantages in the front court and can attack the rim on the majority of possessions. If they shoot better than 80 attempts than I feel confident the OVER will win themoney

[John Ryan]

Any thoughts on the second half. The Over is looking very good and so is Indiana. The faster the pace the better for Pacers. I think I would odona continuation bet on the second half. If nothing else, the pace will be even faster in the second half. Pacers getting to the rim and they will contionue to push

[John Ryan]

Had a winning 5 star play on the OVER Heat Pacers game last night.
I like the OVER in Game 7 between Boston and Philadelphia S sturdy night.
10 star play OVER 170 1/2. -110


Research is on the site. Check it out and let's discuss and dissect this game and this pick. Especially those of you, who like the UNDER.

[John Ryan]

10* graded play OVER the posted total in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final pitting Oklahoma City taking on San Antonio set to start at 8:35 PM ET. These were the two best teams in the regular season based on wins and it stand to reason they would meet here in the Conference Final.

Team Rankings
The flash stats for these two teams are comparable, but as you will see, the Spurs rely on a power game scoring points from the paint and significant ball movement than the Thunder. The Spurs rank first in the NBA averaging 103.5 points per game, first outscoring their opponents by an average of 7.9 points per game, and fourth averaging 23.1 assist per game.

The Thunder run far more isolation sets in the half court offense. They rank third in the NBA averaging 102.7 points per game, fourth outscoring opponents by an average of 6.4 points per game, and 29th averaging 18.4 assist per game.

Breaking the stats down further we see the Spurs rank fourth averaging 45.6 points in the paint per game and 10th averaging 13.9 fast break points per game. The Thunder are more dependent on taking advantage of the team quickness and speed advantages over opponents. They rank 11th in the NBA averaging 41.5 points in the paint per game and fifth averaging 16.2 fast break points per game.

Ball Control favors the Spurs
The Spurs are a superior ball control type of team as compared to the Thunder. The Spurs ranked second in the NBA posting a 1.712 assists-to-turnover ratio. By comparison, the Thunder ranked 30th in the NBA posting a 1.173 assist-to-turnover ratio. The dominant difference is the high speed Thunder fast break does carry more turnover risk. Their point guard Westbrook has been prone to trying to create too much on drives to the rim and either taking low percentage difficult shots or turning the ball over. However, in the playoffs, Westbrook has done a far greater job and the team as a whole has improved significantly in this category. They are a much better ball control team than the numbers would suggest.

Westbrook is averaging just 1.7 turnovers per game and posting a 2.86 assists-to-turnover ratio, and a remarkable 1.21 stelas-to-turnover ratio ranking best among starting point guards in the NBA playoffs by a significant margin. Augmenting his fine play, is Derek Fisher, who has averaged 20.8 minutes per game, 0.4 turnovers per game, a 2.00 assists-to-turnover ratio, and 2.00 steals-to turnover ratio. There is no doubt in my mind the Thunder’s hand speed and quickness will help them win the turnover battle leading to many fast break scoring opportunities.

The Simulator Projections
The simulator shows a high probability that the Thunder and Spurs will combine to score more than 205 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 62-30 ATS for 67.4% winners since 2006. Play OVER the posted total with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 and after a game where they failed to cover the spread and is an extremely well rested team playing three or less games in 10 days.

The sim shows a significant probability that the Spurs will score 105 or more points. In past games, the Thunder are 13-1 OVER the posted total making 11.9 units per one unit wagered when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season. The Thunder averaged 19.7 three point shot attempts per game this season. The Spurs are a solid 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) when facing teams who attempt 18 or more three point shots per game with the game taking place in the second half of this season.

Take the OVER in Game 1 for a 10* graded play.