SuicideKings 2011-12 NBA Thread

[suicidekings]

3/11

Nuggets -6 (-108) x2

[suicidekings]

3/11

Nuggets -6 (-108) x2

0-1 (-2.16u)

YTD: 64-72 (+25.05u)

[suicidekings]

3/13

Magic +4.5 (-110) x2
Nuggets -5 (-110) x1

[suicidekings]

Warriors ML (+145) x3

[Pauulzcappin]

Why the Warriors tonight? Don't you think they are gonna be a little emotional after the trade? Also no one on this team can create off the dribble as well as Monta.

[suicidekings]

Why the Warriors tonight? Don't you think they are gonna be a little emotional after the trade? Also no one on this team can create off the dribble as well as Monta.

The trade opened up a huge opportunity for young players to get more touches for the Warriors. I think this game will be high scoring and the Warriors won't lie down. I just have a good feeling about it.

[suicidekings]

For all the criticism he takes at times, Nate Robinson is so dangerous when he's given the opportunity to make big shots...

[suicidekings]

3/13

Magic +4.5 (-110) x2
Nuggets -5 (-110) x1
Warriors ML (+145) x3

3/13: 2-1 (+4.25u)
YTD: 66-73 (+29.3u)

[parlayin]

Very nice call, sk

[suicidekings]

3/14

Sixers pk (-110) x2.5
Celtics +1 (-110) x2.5
Magic +5.5 (-110) x1

[SparJMU]

Great call on Golden St.

[suicidekings]

3/14

Sixers pk (-110) x2.5
Celtics +1 (-110) x2.5
Magic +5.5 (-110) x1

Kings -3.5 (-110) x5

Tonight, the Kings take out last night's aggression. I think they bounce back nicely.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (4:35 2Q, 42-30 Bulls): Heat ML (+240) x1

[suicidekings]

3/14

Sixers pk (-110) x2.5
Magic +5.5 (-110) x1
Kings -3.5 (-110) x5
Heat ML (+240) x1
Celtics +1 (-110) x2.5, pending

3/14: 0-4 (-10.35u)
YTD: 66-77 (+18.95u)

Haven't had a night like this one in a while...

[SparJMU]

Hey SK, who is going to win the East this year?

[suicidekings]

3/23

Blazers +9.5 (-106) x5
Blazers ML (+461) x1

[dlunc3]

3/23

Blazers +9.5 (-106) x5
Blazers ML (+461) x1

you see aldridge finger is bothering him in warmups?

[suicidekings]

Hey SK, who is going to win the East this year?

50% Bulls, 45% Heat, 5% Other. It's really hard for me to imagine the Heat winning the East this year. The games will be close, but I just don't have faith in the Heat to pull it out.

[suicidekings]

3/23

Blazers +9.5 (-106) x5
Blazers ML (+461) x1

3/23: 1-1 (+4u)
YTD: 67-78 (+22.95u)

[parlayin]

50% Bulls, 45% Heat, 5% Other. It's really hard for me to imagine the Heat winning the East this year. The games will be close, but I just don't have faith in the Heat to pull it out.

Why do you think the result will be different from the 4-1 series last year? Seems that getting key buckets down the stretch was a problem once LBJ was on Rose and personnel-wise, the Heat did more in the off-season. Curious as to your thinking here.

Also, who do you like coming out of the West and to win it all?

[suicidekings]

Why do you think the result will be different from the 4-1 series last year? Seems that getting key buckets down the stretch was a problem once LBJ was on Rose and personnel-wise, the Heat did more in the off-season. Curious as to your thinking here. Also, who do you like coming out of the West and to win it all?

In terms of gameplan and shot distribution, I feel like the Bulls have evolved more than the Heat have since last year. The Heat have become more of an interior team, adding depth in their big men, which was a serious problem for them last season, and have reduced the number of perimeter shots Wade/Lebron take. Both good moves, but when it comes to a playoff environment, I would still take the Bulls bigs over the Heat bigs, and we all know that the shot distribution for the Heat will slide more towards Lebron/Wade/Bosh in these games. In context of a matchup with the Bulls, I don't think a lot has changed for the Heat.

The Bulls greatest weakness last year in the playoffs was their dependence on Derrick Rose as the only player that could really run offense effectively for them, which led to heavy double-teams and disrupted the way the Bulls wanted to run their offense. It's why they lost last year. This year, both CJ Watson and John Lucas have emerged as effective options at the PG position, giving them a pretty substantial amount of depth to work from and reducing their dependence on running offense through Derrick Rose. I think that's a much more significant change than anything the Heat have done.

In the West, honestly, I'm starting to really like the Lakers to get to the WCF. They have a LOT to prove and Sessions replacing Fisher is HUGE. The West is a lot more side open right now though, with half a game separating 4th & 9th place, and most of those lower ranked teams should be tough outs. I think the Lakers and Grizzlies in particular will close out the season strong.

[suicidekings]

3/24

Pistons +10.5 (-105) x2
Pistons ML (+550) x1

[SparJMU]

The Bulls greatest weakness last year in the playoffs was their dependence on Derrick Rose as the only player that could really run offense effectively for them, which led to heavy double-teams and disrupted the way the Bulls wanted to run their offense. It's why they lost last year. This year, both CJ Watson and John Lucas have emerged as effective options at the PG position, giving them a pretty substantial amount of depth to work from and reducing their dependence on running offense through Derrick Rose. I think that's a much more significant change than anything the Heat have done.

This is true, but think about what you just said about the Heat.....in the final minutes the scoring will be 100% Wade and Bosh. Even though the Bulls have more scoring options now, think about who is going to be on the court in the final 60 seconds of a game. I don't think CJ Watson or John Lucas will even be on the floor. When the game matters, its going to be 100% Derrick Rose once again. And the Heat will win that matchup again.

[demens]

I think it will be 100% Rose again too and most likely a similar result. I'm very skeptical about relying on Watson and Lucas in the play-offs. Once matched with an equally good defensive team like the Heat it wouldnt surprise me if those guys contributed literally nothing. Bulls might be in trouble again imo. It should be evident early though, last year it was clear from the 1st round the team was not ready to go all the way.

[Dexter]

3/23: 1-1 (+4u)
YTD: 67-78 (+22.95u)

are you counting moneylines in your win-loss record?

[suicidekings]

This is true, but think about what you just said about the Heat.....in the final minutes the scoring will be 100% Wade and Bosh. Even though the Bulls have more scoring options now, think about who is going to be on the court in the final 60 seconds of a game. I don't think CJ Watson or John Lucas will even be on the floor. When the game matters, its going to be 100% Derrick Rose once again. And the Heat will win that matchup again.

I think it will be 100% Rose again too and most likely a similar result. I'm very skeptical about relying on Watson and Lucas in the play-offs. Once matched with an equally good defensive team like the Heat it wouldnt surprise me if those guys contributed literally nothing. Bulls might be in trouble again imo. It should be evident early though, last year it was clear from the 1st round the team was not ready to go all the way.

I completely disagree with the conclusions drawn here. The difference between a Bulls team where Rose has a high degree of responsibility for 48 minutes and one where he can be coming into the final 5 minutes well rested (both physically and mentally) is huge in a single game. The effect is magnified over the course of a 7 game series, and even more so when you consider we're likely talking about the ECF, a month into the playoffs. Simplifying the effect of depth at a position to the direct impact of the 2nd/3rd options in those final 5 minutes of a close game is not correct.

[suicidekings]

are you counting moneylines in your win-loss record?

Yes and No. I post the simplified record that combines all of my NBA bets for the season, minus Futures. Once in a while I post the breakdown that separates them, but on a day to day basis I just do the quick tally in the thread that doesn't consider the relative worth of a +250 ML and a -110 spread or that I will range from 1-10u per play. I also make mistakes in my adding in the thread and correct them with the spreadsheet when i catch them. As noted below.

Through 3/23

Spreads: 40-37-2 (+13.09u) Average Odds: -107
Moneylines: 24-32 (+16.40u) Average Odds: +161
Other: 4-9 (-8.29u)
Overall: 68-78-2 (+21.20u)

[Dexter]

yeah, cause a +400 ML play shouldn't count in your W-L record.....IMO.

[SparJMU]

I completely disagree with the conclusions drawn here. The difference between a Bulls team where Rose has a high degree of responsibility for 48 minutes and one where he can be coming into the final 5 minutes well rested (both physically and mentally) is huge in a single game. The effect is magnified over the course of a 7 game series, and even more so when you consider we're likely talking about the ECF, a month into the playoffs. Simplifying the effect of depth at a position to the direct impact of the 2nd/3rd options in those final 5 minutes of a close game is not correct.

I see what you are saying here and I agree. Watson and Lucas will both take pressure off Rose over the course of 2 months of playoffs. Miami dominated last years series 4-1, and this Chicago team is much more versatile. I still fear that down the stretch of a game, the offense will be 100% reliable on Rose again this year, and Rose 1v1 against Lebron is still a bad matchup down the stretch.

Man I hope I am wrong.

[suicidekings]

yeah, cause a +400 ML play shouldn't count in your W-L record.....IMO.

I suppose, however when you consider the success rate (42.9%) vs average line (+161, breakeven = 38.3%) for the MLs, I've actually been better at them than spreads. The notion of overall winning percentage doesn't really matter as much anyways when varying bet sizes. It's just hard to show the complete story simply in here, and I don't think anyone's really all that interested in the details.

[suicidekings]

I see what you are saying here and I agree. Watson and Lucas will both take pressure off Rose over the course of 2 months of playoffs. Miami dominated last years series 4-1, and this Chicago team is much more versatile. I still fear that down the stretch of a game, the offense will be 100% reliable on Rose again this year, and Rose 1v1 against Lebron is still a bad matchup down the stretch.

Man I hope I am wrong.

One other thing to consider in this discussion is that this season is really it for the Heat's little experiment. There's an immense amount of pressure for them to bring home a championship. Definitely more than anyone else has on them, and it's largely self-inflicted, with all the drama they carry around. I really don't see this as a positive motivational factor for the Heat as Bosh/Lebron have both shown numerous times to let the pressure get to them.

[parlayin]

I completely disagree with the conclusions drawn here. The difference between a Bulls team where Rose has a high degree of responsibility for 48 minutes and one where he can be coming into the final 5 minutes well rested (both physically and mentally) is huge in a single game. The effect is magnified over the course of a 7 game series, and even more so when you consider we're likely talking about the ECF, a month into the playoffs. Simplifying the effect of depth at a position to the direct impact of the 2nd/3rd options in those final 5 minutes of a close game is not correct.

My thoughts are along the same lines as those of SparJMU. Success in the playoffs seems to often come down to execution and quality shots/possessions down the stretch. While the development of Watson and Lucas will certainly keep Rose rested for those key moments, this would only be a difference-maker from last year if the reason for the Bulls' end of game failures was that Rose was too drained. But the consensus was that they had no legitimate second scoring option once Lebron locked him down. Do you think that a fresher Rose will be able to create shots when matched up against James for essentially the same supporting cast (except maybe Hamilton if healthy), or where will the points come from?

[SparJMU]

One other thing to consider in this discussion is that this season is really it for the Heat's little experiment. There's an immense amount of pressure for them to bring home a championship. Definitely more than anyone else has on them, and it's largely self-inflicted, with all the drama they carry around. I really don't see this as a positive motivational factor for the Heat as Bosh/Lebron have both shown numerous times to let the pressure get to them.

I like this point a lot and hope you are right. Obviously no other team is feeling the pressure quite as much as Miami, and that may not work in their favor.

[suicidekings]

4/17

Lakers ML (+135) x5

I strongly disagree with this line, with or without Kobe in the lineup.

[SparJMU]

tough one. Spurs were out for revenge I guess.