SuicideKings 2011-12 NBA Thread

**suicidekings** · 02-26-12, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by parlayin

SK, where do you play your in-game bets? Do use a particular approach or methodology for those or if a a team you already liked before the game gets down early you find added value there? Also, do you try to find the lowest point for that team or do you just check the lines during the game and see if anything jumps out?

I play mostly at Pinnacle, but sometimes at other places. I almost always have a strong pregame opinion when I play a game live. Sometimes I don't like the pregame line, so I wait and see what becomes available. Trying to wait and get the best line is REALLY hard, as momentum can shift quickly. Sometimes you need to just take what you're given or pass on it altogether. You're going to miss a lot of good opportunities no matter how close attention you pay. It really depends on the tendencies of the two teams playing, as well as scheduling. Most of the time the games I bet live are ones where I expect one team to really come out swinging early and result in imbalanced scoring in the first 6-12 minutes. That's the time in the game where you typically get the best balance between value on live lines and a reasonable expectation that your team is going to play better as the game goes on.

I've largely moved away from heavily stats-based capping, instead using a more fundamental approach of line analysis and situational angles. They account for 90%+ of the plays I make, but that being said, you really need to be able to quantify where a fair line lies at any point in the game if you plan on doing live betting frequently. Whatever method you come up with has to be simple, team-specific, and predictive rather than just summarizing what's happened so far in the game. You'll probably find the format at http://popcornmachine.net/ very helpful in doing the conceptual design for how you approach live-betting.

**parlayin** · 02-27-12, 12:33 AM

Very helpful, SK...thanks for taking the time to respond in detail. Your point about focusing on the first 6-12 minutes for the value/expected improvement balance makes a lot of sense and can easily be overlooked by people who might wait too long trying to get a better line. I've actually been searching for a site like popcorn machine for some of the analysis i was looking to do.

**suicidekings** · 02-28-12, 09:09 PM

2/28

~~Jazz ML (+145) x2~~ Jazz ML (+144) x2

**MidgetTossers** · 02-28-12, 09:28 PM

what do u see in utah tonight bro?

**suicidekings** · 02-28-12, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by MidgetTossers

what do u see in utah tonight bro?

I... just noticed this. Now in the 2Q.

The line just put up red flags for me as not behaving like it should. IMO, the Kings are definitely the wrong side tonight. Especially at -3.5 or more.

**MidgetTossers** · 02-28-12, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I... just noticed this. Now in the 2Q.

The line just put up red flags for me as not behaving like it should. IMO, the Kings are definitely the wrong side tonight. Especially at -3.5 or more.

no worries bro just curious.. i was trying to figure out the line move for this game..thanks for the response!

**suicidekings** · 02-29-12, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

2/28

Jazz ML (+144) x2

Frustrating when a team plays a tight game in every other respect, but shoots 50% from the FT line to take the loss. I still think the Jazz are a team to watch in the second half. Their market value is going to be at a season low in the next few games, and they have a lot of road games coming up in which they'll be getting a lot of points. I was really hoping they would pull out the win tonight as I want to back Houston tomorrow.

2/28: 0-1 (-2u)
YTD: 61-63-2 (+31.14u)

**MidgetTossers** · 02-29-12, 12:38 AM

yea that was a really bad display of FT shooting..get em tomorrow bro

**No coincidences** · 02-29-12, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I... just noticed this. Now in the 2Q.

The line just put up red flags for me as not behaving like it should. IMO, the Kings are definitely the wrong side tonight. Especially at -3.5 or more.

What do you mean? Kings opened at -1 and closed at -3.5. Why would that be red flags in favor of the Jazz?

**suicidekings** · 02-29-12, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

What do you mean? Kings opened at -1 and closed at -3.5. Why would that be red flags in favor of the Jazz?

You don't think a line that never reaches proper equilibrium is odd?

**demens** · 03-01-12, 08:13 PM

Been a bit quiet in here. Lots of games tomorrow, anything catching your eye? I like a whoping 6 games. Hopefully OKC wins tonight so i'll go into the day with some momentum, February wasn't all that great for me but March is gonna be the money maker.

**suicidekings** · 03-03-12, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by demens

Been a bit quiet in here. Lots of games tomorrow, anything catching your eye? I like a whoping 6 games. Hopefully OKC wins tonight so i'll go into the day with some momentum, February wasn't all that great for me but March is gonna be the money maker.

There's a definite end-effect in the NBA of uncharacteristic results at the start of the season, around the ASB, and at the end of the year (for teams not struggling for playoff positioning), when the rest cycles for the teams are thrown off. This year I decided to just let it sit for a couple of days before re-starting. Utah was supposed to be a play last night, but I missed the tipoff.

Today I like the Wizards the most...

And to a lesser extent, the Blazers and Hornets.

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-03-12, 01:29 PM

I think Dallas looks good tonight, sk. They are laying 7.5 while playing horribly and own this Jazz team. Letdown spot for Utah tonight IMO. Dallas by 12.

**suicidekings** · 03-03-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

I think Dallas looks good tonight, sk. They are laying 7.5 while playing horribly and own this Jazz team. Letdown spot for Utah tonight IMO. Dallas by 12.

I actually like the Jazz at first glance. As I said a few days ago, I think the Jazz will be one of the best bets in the second half of the season. They're 2-1 so far with that loss getting away from them in the final minute. Both teams on a 4 in 5. I don't look at that win over the Heat last night producing a letdown spot for the Jazz tonight, but rather, it was a huge confidence builder. Don't undervalue the Jazz.

I'm not sure how you can like the Mavs for a DD win on 4in5 when they have Haywood playing injured and Odom pouting against a team that's very capable of banging inside and looking not to get swept in the season series.

**suicidekings** · 03-03-12, 02:22 PM

3/3

Wizards -4 (-103) x2

Kyrie sick, Varejao out, the Cavs playing their 4th game in 5 days while the Wiz are on 2 days rest. Heavily imbalanced betting action on the Cavs with minimal line movement, and the Wiz have started off the second half of the season with two ATS wins in games they nearly won SU. This game fits a lot of positive criteria I use to choose games, and I think it's a good play.

**suicidekings** · 03-03-12, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

3/3

Wizards -4 (-103) x2

3/3: 0-1 (-2.06u)
YTD: 61-64-2 (+29.08u)

Lost again on missed free throws down the stretch. Pain in the ass...

**JOHON8** · 03-03-12, 09:40 PM

Very unlucky, you were on the right side though.

**demens** · 03-04-12, 01:20 AM

whats up with this blazer team, they are massively underachieving. Everybody still acts like they are so scary, but they can't even win at home consistently anymore.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 04:26 AM

Originally posted by JOHON8

Very unlucky, you were on the right side though.

Those are the breaks of betting the association, I suppose. Hoping to see it come back soon.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by demens

whats up with this blazer team, they are massively underachieving. Everybody still acts like they are so scary, but they can't even win at home consistently anymore.

Come the playoffs (if healthy) they will be a tough out, for sure. I didn't watch last night. Agreed that they're not really putting it together like they should be, but the potential of that lineup is still very high, so you still need to respect them.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 11:38 AM

3/4

Celtics ML (-108) x1
Lakers ML (+140) x3

**ragiche** · 03-04-12, 12:31 PM

Nice plays.Leaning on the lakers myself.But gonna wait the early game result first.GL.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 01:48 PM

I might go bigger on the Lakers if I can get a better price on a live line. I definitely don't understand people thinking that they're getting a good line on the Heat -3 or more at Staples Center...

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-04-12, 01:50 PM

Chris Bosh is out. Lakers will win.

**demens** · 03-04-12, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I might go bigger on the Lakers if I can get a better price on a live line. I definitely don't understand people thinking that they're getting a good line on the Heat -3 or more at Staples Center...

I disagree. Heat are a wracking ball when they are motivated. They took care of business last year and the Lakers have regressed since then.

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-04-12, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by demens

I disagree. Heat are a wracking ball when they are motivated. They took care of business last year and the Lakers have regressed since then.

Not having Bosh is a major problem for the Heat, he has absolutely destroyed the Lakers/Gasol.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by demens

I disagree. Heat are a wracking ball when they are motivated. They took care of business last year and the Lakers have regressed since then.

Are you suggesting this game is more important to the Heat than the Lakers? This will be a tight game, important to both sides. The Laker bigs will dominate the paint, taking away rebounds and second chance points from the Heat, forcing more perimeter shooting from Miami. Even with their current roster, the Lakers should not be a +3 home dog... The Heat are over-priced.

**demens** · 03-04-12, 02:53 PM

I think both teams will be motivated for this game. So there is no situational advantages for either side, in which case i think the better team is the play. A line from 1-3 is not all that significant imo, even if it is a close game i think the winner covers a 3 point spread.

**demens** · 03-04-12, 02:58 PM

what did you cap this game at anyway? I had it at -3.3 Heat. Did not factor in Bosh, but i think the Heat are equally as good with or without him. I rarely bet Miami btw.Check that, its actually my 1st bet on the Heat all year.

**No coincidences** · 03-04-12, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by demens

what did you cap this game at anyway? I had it at -3.3 Heat. Did not factor in Bosh, but i think the Heat are equally as good with or without him. I rarely bet Miami btw.Check that, its actually my 1st bet on the Heat all year.

Against most teams maybe, but don't the Heat need him going against a frontline of Bynum and Gasol? It's not like the Heat are deep in the frontcourt.

**demens** · 03-04-12, 03:26 PM

but they are deep on the wings. Do the Lakers have the defense to contain the wings of Miami? I dont think so. I think Miami wings beat Lakers front court. They can go with Lebron at the 4 too, good luck with Gasol trying to guard that. Heat can also get the Laker big in foul trouble and eliminate that threat that way.

**No coincidences** · 03-04-12, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by demens

but they are deep on the wings. Do the Lakers have the defense to contain the wings of Miami? I dont think so. I think Miami wings beat Lakers front court. They can go with Lebron at the 4 too, good luck with Gasol trying to guard that. Heat can also get the Laker big in foul trouble and eliminate that threat that way.

Agree that the Lakers don't have an answer defensively for Miami's wings.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by demens

I think both teams will be motivated for this game. So there is no situational advantages for either side, in which case i think the better team is the play. A line from 1-3 is not all that significant imo, even if it is a close game i think the winner covers a 3 point spread.

Originally posted by demens

what did you cap this game at anyway? I had it at -3.3 Heat. Did not factor in Bosh, but i think the Heat are equally as good with or without him. I rarely bet Miami btw.Check that, its actually my 1st bet on the Heat all year.

I totally disagree with these points. The Heat's greatest strength is the open looks they get on the perimeter via strong dribble penetration and without Bosh in the game, and Gasol/Bynum clogging up the paint, Miami is going to get a lot less open looks today. It definitely starts with strong interior work from the Laker bigs, but if they can cut down Miami's ability to work inside, Bryant/Artest/Barnes are all extremely capable of locking down the Heat perimeter shooters outside, forcing tougher shots all game.

As for the line, it should be no more than Heat -1, and honestly, I would have had the Lakers favoured in this game. The market perception on this line deviates quite a bit from where I think it should be. And there's a big difference between a -1 fave and a -3 fave. Push probabilities for 1/2/3 are 2.3%, 4.0%, and 3.8% respectively. Getting +3.5 offers a lot of cushion in terms of your long term winning percentage in competitive games where the outcome is expected to be decided in the final 2 minutes.

**Love The Action** · 03-04-12, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I totally disagree with these points. The Heat's greatest strength is the open looks they get on the perimeter via strong dribble penetration and without Bosh in the game, and Gasol/Bynum clogging up the paint, Miami is going to get a lot less open looks today. It definitely starts with strong interior work from the Laker bigs, but if they can cut down Miami's ability to work inside, Bryant/Artest/Barnes are all extremely capable of locking down the Heat perimeter shooters outside, forcing tougher shots all game.

As for the line, it should be no more than Heat -1, and honestly, I would have had the Lakers favoured in this game. The market perception on this line deviates quite a bit from where I think it should be. And there's a big difference between a -1 fave and a -3 fave. Push probabilities for 1/2/3 are 2.3%, 4.0%, and 3.8% respectively. Getting +3.5 offers a lot of cushion in terms of your long term winning percentage in competitive games where the outcome is expected to be decided in the final 2 minutes.

I agree. The value was clearly on the Lakers as the books are taxing the Heat about 1-1.5 points in this game. In late January, the Heat won by 11 as 5.5 faves in Miami with both teams at full strength and no significant situational disadvantages on either side. In this game, the line opened at -2.5, got as high as -3.5 and closed at -2.5. Using standard adjustments, the Heat should be no more than -1 to -1.5 and considering that Bosh is out Miami should be no more than PK. This really illustrates the tax you are paying to play the Heat right during this hot streak.

I see your point about setting the Lakers as a slight fave, however, I would only set the line that much in favor of LA if Miami were in a fatigue spot which is not the case today. Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that the value was squarely on the Lakers. Personally, I played the under at 193 because I thought there was more value, plus I think the situational factors also favor the under here. I guess we'll find out soon enough on both ends. Good luck on your plays today SK.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I agree. The value was clearly on the Lakers as the books are taxing the Heat about 1-1.5 points in this game. In late January, the Heat won by 11 as 5.5 faves in Miami with both teams at full strength and no significant situational disadvantages on either side. In this game, the line opened at -2.5, got as high as -3.5 and closed at -2.5. Using standard adjustments, the Heat should be no more than -1 to -1.5 and considering that Bosh is out Miami should be no more than PK. This really illustrates the tax you are paying to play the Heat right during this hot streak.

I see your point about setting the Lakers as a slight fave, however, I would only set the line that much in favor of LA if Miami were in a fatigue spot which is not the case today. Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that the value was squarely on the Lakers. Personally, I played the under at 193 because I thought there was more value, plus I think the situational factors also favor the under here. I guess we'll find out soon enough on both ends. Good luck on your plays today SK.

I think this is going to be another one of those games where I have a strong opinion on the side, you have a strong opinion on the total, both rely on similar assessments of how the game will play out, and we both win. As the defense tightens up, I'd be shocked not to see at least one quarter go under 40 points and give you a bit more cushion. All these long possessions are money for eating up clock.

The Heat tax offers interesting opportunities when they play against other top tier teams because it's almost universally applied to their games, but it just isn't deserved when their opponent has some element on the floor that can disrupt the Heat's flow, such as dominant bigs.

Same thing is happening today in the LAC/HOU game. IMO, the Rockets -2 is a great price as the Clippers are getting a bit too much credit as an average road team visiting a very good home team that features a very strong backcourt that can make Paul/Williams work hard and take tough shots.