John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[shinnman]

Please explain, I am not religious.

psalm23

the lord is my shepherd, i shall not want

it gos on from there we read it at my moms funeral a couple months ago, its actually a very inspiring psalm

[Win89]

Looks like we'll have one B bet so far out of the two tonight. Sunday 6:30 (EST) ESPN...can't wait.

[Wallco99]

*****

[Wallco99]

psalm23

the lord is my shepherd, i shall not want

it gos on from there we read it at my moms funeral a couple months ago, its actually a very inspiring psalm

What the hell does that have to do with Charlotte and the Sixers? I think someone's been visiting Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds! <!-- / message -->

[Riceboi]

So the B bet will be betting on spurs (spread?) vs the mavs this coming sunday?

[1gamer]

CASH OKC!

[jcygts6]

So the B bet will be betting on spurs (spread?) vs the mavs this coming sunday?

That is correct! Nice nsx btw!

[Kev the Brit]

What the hell does that have to do with Charlotte and the Sixers? I think someone's been visiting Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds! <!-- / message -->

Psalm 23, Verse 4 is often quoted in the face of adversity:
The Lord is my shepherd; I shall not want. 2 He maketh me to lie down in green pastures: he leadeth me beside the still waters. 3 He restoreth my soul: he leadeth me in the paths of righteousness for his name's sake. 4 Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. 5 Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over. 6 Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life: and I will dwell in the house of the Lord for ever.

Although it was written in the Bible, (Book of Psalms), the meaning can be applied to any faith. Verse 4 has also been subjected to a few humurous variations:

4 Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for I am the meanest sonofabitch that ever walked in that valley; my rod and my staff they comfort me.

Chasing Charlotte ATS is such a valley

Kev

[Kev the Brit]

JM B & C Bet Only Stats:

36 JM series completed so far, to Jan 27.
(1 series currently awaiting the B Bet)

See posts from thelimit0310 (good work) for details.

Betting to win 1 unit in each series from the A Bet = 36 units profit.
(If the currently open series wins: another 1 unit profit)

A Bet failures: 15 occasions (59.45% success rate).
(including the currently open series)

Betting to win 3 units in each completed series from B Bet: 14 x 3 units = 42 units profit.
(If the currently open series wins: another 3 units to B/C bettors)

We are approx one third of the way through the regular season. The B&C bettors have 6 units of additional profit to soften the blow in the event of a series failure.
(If the currently open series wins: the profit differential increases to 8 units. However, over the last 3 weeks since my previous report, the difference has reduced by 3 units)

Current stats continue to support historical data that time and money is wasted by betting from the A Bet.

I said I will provide these stats weekly, but I thought I would wait for the A Bet winning streak to end. Next report will be Sat Feb 4 (pre-daily schedule)

Good luck to all
Kev
<!-- / message -->

[Wilba]

JM B & C Bet Only Stats:

36 JM series completed so far, to Jan 27.
(1 series currently awaiting the B Bet)

See posts from thelimit0310 (good work) for details.

Betting to win 1 unit in each series from the A Bet = 36 units profit.
(If the currently open series wins: another 1 unit profit)

A Bet failures: 15 occasions (59.45% success rate).
(including the currently open series)

Betting to win 3 units in each completed series from B Bet: 14 x 3 units = 42 units profit.
(If the currently open series wins: another 3 units to B/C bettors)

We are approx one third of the way through the regular season. The B&C bettors have 6 units of additional profit to soften the blow in the event of a series failure.
(If the currently open series wins: the profit differential increases to 8 units. However, over the last 3 weeks since my previous report, the difference has reduced by 3 units)

Current stats continue to support historical data that time and money is wasted by betting from the A Bet.

I said I will provide these stats weekly, but I thought I would wait for the A Bet winning streak to end. Next report will be Sat Feb 4 (pre-daily schedule)

Good luck to all
Kev
<!-- / message -->

To be even more precise, to have an identical series risk as betting to win 1 unit from A, you bet to win 3.15 units on B/C, (saying 3 units from B is just an approximation). So to be pedantic, the B/C bettors (for same series risk) are in fact up 44 units, not 42. It is around 125% of the profit, which is what it will be (at least) each and every season over the long run.

And people were saying only a few days ago how the A bets were doing really well. What they need to realise is that for betting from A to be more successful, more than 68.5% of all A bets over a season must cover. That's more than 2 out of every 3 ! This will never happen over a long time span so betting from As will never come out on top.The As have "been doing really well" and yet they are still 8 units behind already. Imagine the difference when the As stop doing so well, which will happen soon enough..

[Wilba]

thanks for the stats too Kev, good on you for the time and effort to educate people

[Nino7]

do u guys buy points to hold these stats?
Wallco are u betting 7/5 on B/C without buying points?

[casdio]

So, tonight we will be betting on Charlotte Bobcats ATS, right?

[Wilba]

do u guys buy points to hold these stats?
Wallco are u betting 7/5 on B/C without buying points?

YES

[Maxi_EV]

Was wondering if you guys had taken a look at what tukkk shared in this thread:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/1535605-my-variance-simulator-excel.html

He put together an excel calculator with regard to this very topic. It calculates on a per bet scenario and was wondering how a chase system like the ones in this thread would do. It's actually quite interesting.

NINO

This is for you. It is actually a variance simulator based on the % of actual roll method. Play with it. You will see how variance rules this method. I found some comparisons that I have made with an old system idea that I had. I was comparing ACTUAL vs ORIGINAL roll %. The problem with ACTUAL is taht with the same sample, winrate, odds and number of sims, the results range is so wide that the mean never beats the standard deviation.

Simply said, the average result is lower than the deviation we can expect from that result. In terms of statistics, this is an unstable system, so , for me, I can't rely on that. Like I said before it is gambling into gambling. I'm looking for system that shows positive expectation AND that beats standard deviation.

Have fun with the simulator!
And thanks to XS$z

[Nino7]

thx so much man

[casdio]

Suns and Kings will be an A bet for tonight, right?

And Bobcats a B bet?

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 23-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +23.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.10 units)

(1/27/12):
#24 Charlotte (+16) (A) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 17-7
(B) 2-4
(C) 2-2
(D) 2-0

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (1/28/12):
#24 Washington @ Charlotte (+2) (B) (7:05 pm EST)
#25 Sacramento (+9) @ Utah (A) (9:05 pm EST)
#26 Memphis @ Phoenix (+4) (A) (9:05 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[dominate.]

What happened to krzychu? I really liked his format for posting plays. Nothing against thelimit, though and I do appreciate your work.

JM's NBA system (injury filter and ML filter are not applied):
04/05/2011 Milwaukee @ Orlando- V3, A bet - WIN
04/05/2011 LA Clippers @ Memphis- V3, A bet - WIN
04/05/2011 Sacramento @ Houston- V3, A bet - WIN
04/05/2011 Phoenix @ Chicago- V3, B bet - WIN

V1record so far (finished series): 57-3
(A): 30-30
(B): 22-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series: PHO 11/17-20 DET 12/07-10 UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 17-14
(B): 5-9
(C): 8-1
Lost series: MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 65-3
(A): 39-28-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 22-7-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-2-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series: CLE 12/04-07 TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com) GS 03/18-21

Next JM's plays:
04/06/2011 New York @ Philadelphia- V3, A bet
04/08/2011 Chicago @ Cleveland- V3, A bet

[thelimit0310]

JM January 27

V3 OKLAHOMA CITY -1 @ Golden State (A) WIN
V3 SAN ANTONIO +2 @ Minnesota (A) LOSS

Dominate, there is isn't that much of a difference aside from the upcoming plays and the lost series. I will add lost series when it happens, currently we are undefeated.

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 8-4
B: 2-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 1-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 15-8
B: 5-2
C: 2-0

Totals
A: 24-14
B: 9-4
C: 4-0

[thelimit0310]

JM January 28

V3 DETROIT +15.5 @ Philadelphia (A)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

[Wallco99]

JM January 28

V3 DETROIT +15.5 @ Philadelphia (A)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

Why don't you just make the current plays part of the update, instead of doing it in 2 seperate posts every time. I do like the fact that you add the totals section, he never did that last year, I got tired of adding them together. Keep up the good work.

[norseman23]

Is anyone passing up the A bet on Detroit tonight

[stickbit]

I see heavy action on philly so far and line move down 2 pts from opener to 12.5...wow!

[Nino7]

NINO This is for you. It is actually a variance simulator based on the % of actual roll method. Play with it. You will see how variance rules this method. I found some comparisons that I have made with an old system idea that I had. I was comparing ACTUAL vs ORIGINAL roll %. The problem with ACTUAL is taht with the same sample, winrate, odds and number of sims, the results range is so wide that the mean never beats the standard deviation. Simply said, the average result is lower than the deviation we can expect from that result. In terms of statistics, this is an unstable system, so , for me, I can't rely on that. Like I said before it is gambling into gambling. I'm looking for system that shows positive expectation AND that beats standard deviation. Have fun with the simulator! And thanks to XS$z

hey I couldnt find a way to open this simulator.it necessarly has to be done with excel?

[Nino7]

wallco u play V2 and V3 7/5 also?

[dominate.]

Why don't you just make the current plays part of the update, instead of doing it in 2 seperate posts every time. I do like the fact that you add the totals section, he never did that last year, I got tired of adding them together. Keep up the good work.

What Wallco said. And perhaps upcoming plays as well?
but just to reiterate I really do truly appreciate all your hard work.

[Kev the Brit]

Is anyone passing up the A bet on Detroit tonight

yes, me

[norseman23]

yes, me

Think I am too. Detroit has too many injuries and gotta be too tired after the last couple days.

[Riceboi]

That is correct! Nice nsx btw!

haha i wish i had an NSX, it's my dream car. I do own a honda s2000 though.

[Kev the Brit]

I've been working on a comparator spreadsheet that might help folk work out which is better, when chase betting: betting to win a fixed percentage of the original bankroll or betting to win a fixed percentage of the extant bankroll. I've already established something which might of use to some folk here:

Assuming the following:
The unit to win per series is 1% BR
The total risk per series is 20 units

Then:
Betting to win 1% of the original BR enables the BR to retain a higher monetary value (compared to betting to win 1% of the extant BR) after a series loss until series #45.

This season I started down the compounding route and grew my unit value as a fixed percentage of a growing BR. So far I'm still undefeated in all of my systems (JM NBA, Wallco, JJ and Hedgepeth), but none of them has reached the safe crossover point (45 series) so I'm now immediately reverting to a fixed value unit.

[xgame]

God damn it Char lose by 1pts.

[jcygts6]

I know painful lost on charlotte

[kobe_brylle]

GL to all!

[1gamer]

CASH THE KINGS!

CASH THE SUNS!