If it has suffered a loss every 28 series, what was the average series unit loss? Wallco do you have stats for what the average series loss was in terms of units? I would think it is below 28 units average, but the minimum loss is 18 units, and if you throw a couple of low odd MLs into the series obviously a series loss can blow out to well over 28 units.. Wallco do you have this info to share? I never remember seeing the av. unit loss posted and this would be really handy, thanks man
-
Comment -
If you have lost more than 25% of your bankroll on these 5 system losses (6 inc. On3) then you are betting too much per series.. Streaks like this happen every single season it is not abnormal at all
If the losses hurt you that much you should readjust your betting to win % of roll so that next time a streak like this comes along you survive it betterComment -
...Comment -
It might be the "never lost in x years" JM bullshit that got people into thinking that systems won't lose...Comment -
Maxi - I came up with a great idea: how about instead doing of 7/5 for 1% of bank roll for +150 units over 4 seasons, we start betting to win 70/50 for .1% of bank roll - that way you win +1500 over 4 seasons!!! ten times as many units!
but oh shit, hang on, it's actually the same amount of real world money, wtf?
do you see my point, what you call a unit is arbitrary, and for the purposes of comparing playing a system two ways (like you were), unless you standardize the unit size there is no way of comparing the two things. For testing purposes the standardized unit size is 1% of roll.. I thought you had been around SBR long enough to know this standard. Guess I thought wrong. You really want to keep talking about this? I let it go but since you really want to keep talking about it lets continue clogging the thread with meaningless comments
Comment -
and your next comment is exactly right Maxi - EVERY system loses and just about every system loses multiple times in a year. If you play multiple systems, chances are there will be at least once every year that you get 3-6 system losses strung together. Well said about your point about the "JM never lost" BS. Anyone who is new don't believe that crap - EVERY system loses!!!Comment -
dlunc - he was having a poke at me cause a couple days ago I said that for testing purposes 1% as a unit is the standard measuring stick for comparing system backtests.. That's all that was aboutComment -
Oh ok.. I gotchaComment -
Excellent thoughts here.
Common sense, it's actually quite simple folks.
Look what teams lose under the Chase 110 system and the JM system over the years.
You will start to see that you should not chase these bad teams or at least drastically reduce your unit size.
On the flip side when a good team reaches a 'B' bet such as Dallas last night, you can increase your unit size.
Hard lessons learned over many years of JM.
Keep it simple, no need to jump on every play, every night.
Success = opportunity + preparation,
When a good opportunity comes along (i.e. an official V1 bet on a playoff team) be prepared to go large.Comment -
^^^ there is certainly a strong argument for what you are saying this season.. All the losses have been by horrible teams. Would be very interesting to see if this trend extends back to past seasons as wellComment -
It has with the JM plays at least for the last few years I have noticed, Not sure about Wallco's system, I don't mess with his plays too much.
Last year JM losses were the likes of: Phoenix, Utah, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto, Golden St., and Minnesota,
none of whom made the playoffs.Comment -
You are incorrect on both premises sir. Sometime you just have to put all the labbying and number crunching aside, and use some common sense with these system plays. Last night was a perfect example. Also, no one has stepped up with advice on how to improve this system. Not sure where that one came from
Last edited by 1gamer; 02-09-12, 10:32 AM.Comment -
Judging by your join date I'm guessing we each started these systems at about the same time.Shitty timing but by the sound of your anger you had far too small of a roll to play these systems. Starting out with huge losses to NO and Ottawa in On3 system sucked but I've still have plenty to play with and recover my $ with. Play within your roll. On a side note I'm gonna go outside the system and fade the Hornets for a while, that should help get some back.GL allComment -
...maxi - i came up with a great idea: How about instead doing of 7/5 for 1% of bank roll for +150 units over 4 seasons, we start betting to win 70/50 for .1% of bank roll - that way you win +1500 over 4 seasons!!! Ten times as many units!
But oh shit, hang on, it's actually the same amount of real world money, wtf?
Do you see my point, what you call a unit is arbitrary, and for the purposes of comparing playing a system two ways (like you were), unless you standardize the unit size there is no way of comparing the two things. For testing purposes the standardized unit size is 1% of roll.. I thought you had been around sbr long enough to know this standard. Guess i thought wrong. You really want to keep talking about this? I let it go but since you really want to keep talking about it lets continue clogging the thread with meaningless comments
PmLast edited by Maxi_EV; 02-09-12, 12:26 PM.Comment -
We are of like mind my friend, Wallco is the man and everything, but I only play his 'D' bets or maybe play a great team on a 'C' bet.
I would rather bet with the streak then bet against it.
An interesting backtest may be when a team losses three in a row SU and ATS, what are the chances they will also lose ATS or SU one of their next three games?
Likewise if a team wins three in row SU and ATS, what are the chances they will win or cover one of their next three games?
Just thinking out loud here.Comment -
JM Feb 8
V3 MIAMI -.5 @ Orlando (A) LOSS
V3 DALLAS +4 @ Denver (B) WIN
RESULTS PER VERSION
Version 1
A: 9-5
B: 2-3
C: 3-0
Version 2
A: 3-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0
Version 3
A: 17-13
B: 9-3
C: 2-1
DET 1/28-1/31
Totals
A: 29-20
B: 13-6
C: 5-1
JM Feb 9
No PlaysComment -
can i put my 2c in please!
can we get back to following JM and CHASE-110 as they should be played and stop the infighting, past few pages are nothing but bickering. lets make some $$$$$$$$$$$
Comment -
I'll have to figure that out, but it should be easy to get from the backtest in post #834. Just back out the wins, and figure out what the system would have paid had it gone undefeated every season. Subtract the amount it did pay off and that will be your loss total. Divide by total # of losses should be your loss amount avg.
Or something like that.Last edited by Wallco99; 02-09-12, 03:57 PM.Comment -
During Cleveland's 27 game losing streak, the one of worst teams in the history of the NBA, in my opinion that year, I believe there were 4 system wins along the way. THE BAD TEAMS LOSE SEVERAL GAMES IN A ROW MORE OFTEN THAN THE GOOD TEAMS DO, and Chase 110 has made a lot of units from these "Bad" teams. Pick another system if you want to bet on favorites. My God, the system is only 5+ units down and people are jumping off bridges. You really didn't think the 108 series winning streak was going to go on forever did you? Well those who did, I am sorry to say, are idiots!
To answer some of the questions from previous weeks.
1. No, I am not changing the system because we lost 2 out of the past 119 series.
2. No I am not skipping the bad teams, because if the bad teams never covered, the books would be out of business.
3. I don't give a sh*t what a blind man sees.
4. I am not doing the parlay method because I think it's foolish.
5. Yes, EyeJiz, I mean Aiwiz, is pwireless's new account name, and we all know how much of an A-hole he was.
6. No, I don't skip series.
7. Yes, I am up for the year.
8. Yes, if JM or Chase 110 loses the next 4 series, I will continue to play them.
9. No, JMD, I haven't found the time to answer the 47 questions you asked in 2 of your posts, and the other 19 questions you asked in your post about poker.
10. Yes, more than 50% of the people at SBR are playing with scared money, and really should find a new hobby.
11. If you need to ask, "Do you think I can make a living doing this?", then the answer is probably, NO.
12. Wilba knows a lot, and some of you folks need to stop arguing the same points with him over and over, especially when others join his fight.
13. B&C only is more profitable than playing from the A bet. Enough said.
14. Yes, Chase 110 is being posted for free, so stop bitching!
15. Yes, I do believe you need to read this whole thread, because the question you are about to ask has already been answered, and probably only 2 pages back....Don't argue, yes it has.
16. Yes, I do believe you should do your own backtest and stop asking everyone else to do it for you. If you were offended by this comment, well then, it is you I speak of.
17. No, there is no such thing as a bad question, just a stupid one.
18. Yes, if you suck at math, then please leave this thread.
19. NO, if we say we will post what we find when we have completed our backtest, then asking EVERY SINGLE DAY if we are playing the new method yet, will not speed the backtest up. I know that is hard to believe, but it is true.
20. Yes, 117 wins out of 119 series is good for any system, and doesn't need to be changed or parlayed.
21. Yes, I am done now.
Comment -
lol Wallco, well said my friend ^^^
{round of applause**Comment -
and thanks I will go look at that post to calc. avg unit loss of seriesComment -
good stuff wallco , its a marathon , not a sprintComment -
I will be suspending the JMV3 Miami Series and reinstating the play on the C1 Denver Series (B) ML. I will carry over the -1 unit loss (On the (A) 3 team parlay Loss) over to win 3 units, net 2. I realize this doesn't account for 1 unit per team in the losing parlay, however, this will limit my exposure at the (C) and (D) Levels of a To Be Determined (TBD) series
C1 Denver -250 7.50 to win 3 units
BOL toniteComment -
Who annoyed Wallco? I'm afraid to say anything in case I get my head bitten off.
Comment -
Are you guys playing the new 7/5 method yet?
Comment
