WNBA San Antonio-Phoenix: what am I missing?

[SexyMit]

It's cute that you're still using this line after getting absolutely destroyed in the 2p2 thread for doing the same thing. When will you stop being so disingenuous that touts can have a massive impact on small markets like WNBA and thus beating the closing line is essentially meaningless?

And you're right, I don't know you personally. However I have observed your actions and your posts on multiple forums and based on those you are, indeed, a scumbag.

Exactly, you can move and beat the lines all you want. But the last 2 seasons you haven't made any money, nor have you come close to winning your clients any money. 1 good year doesn't mean anything, neither does moving lines when you don't WIN money at the end of the year.

[donjuan]

Let's play "is this behavior scummy":

Round 1

Be intellectually dishonest in order to misrepresent your record and your ability to beat lines going forward.

Front run your clients by using a convicted felon.

After front running your clients and causing them to get inferior lines, only offer refunds to those who specifically ask and not all clients (many of whom were not aware of being front-run)

[Edward-RAS]

Edward,

To be fair, RAS is a WNBA giant. When you move a smaller market without much opposition, I am not sure the average line movement is as meaningful. I have seen a lot of weird things in WNBA, and its lines are nowhere near as efficient as other sports with similar limits.

SexyMit stated that your 2008 rate was good, and RAS has done worse since then. What is RAS's record/ROR/Line movement average for 2009-2011?

2009-2011: Full games: 105-90, CLV average of around +1.45. Second halves 36-25.

It is one thing to move a small market (although with Pinn at 3-5k limits it is not as small as something like Arena, CBB totals, etc.), but it is another to hold that movement by solid margins to close. It is meaningful, even if you were to just bet everything for 1 unit and come back the other way for a 1/2 unit. As Fezzik says, it is hard to lose that way.

[Justin7]

Let's play "is this behavior scummy":

Round 1

Be intellectually dishonest in order to misrepresent your record and your ability to beat lines going forward.

Front run your clients by using a convicted felon.

After front running your clients and causing them to get inferior lines, only offer refunds to those who specifically ask and not all clients (many of whom were not aware of being front-run)

Can you give a specific example of when you believe RAS leaked, and the leak front-run you, and your line (and the market) was worse than the release?

[Justin7]

2009-2011: Full games: 105-90, CLV average of around +1.45. Second halves 36-25.

It is one thing to move a small market (although with Pinn at 3-5k limits it is not as small as something like Arena, CBB totals, etc.), but it is another to hold that movement by solid margins to close. It is meaningful, even if you were to just bet everything for 1 unit and come back the other way for a 1/2 unit. As Fezzik says, it is hard to lose that way.

Ed,

The last 3 years, RAS has hit 53.8% with is full-game releases. That is profitable *if* you get the opener. If you get 1/2 point worse, and the push-rate on a typical WNBA half-point is 4%, you'll lose at retail... As with all services, shopping skills matter.

How do you think RAS will do in WNBA full-game releases for the rest of 2011?

[Edward-RAS]

Let's play "is this behavior scummy":

Round 1

Be intellectually dishonest in order to misrepresent your record and your ability to beat lines going forward.

Front run your clients by using a convicted felon.

After front running your clients and causing them to get inferior lines, only offer refunds to those who specifically ask and not all clients (many of whom were not aware of being front-run)

How was our record misrepresented?

Do you think we would have worked with a such a person had we known this?

The pre-betting did not have an overall negative impact on release lines, in fact the opposite was true. Market manipulation (by the same pre-bettors) actually increased play volume and line value for clients.

[phillybadboy]

edit

[Edward-RAS]

Ed,

The last 3 years, RAS has hit 53.8% with is full-game releases. That is profitable *if* you get the opener. If you get 1/2 point worse, and the push-rate on a typical WNBA half-point is 4%, you'll lose at retail... As with all services, shopping skills matter.

How do you think RAS will do in WNBA full-game releases for the rest of 2011?

We don't have a sufficient sample size either way, and it is obviously selective recordkeeping to ignore all of 2008 and the second half plays, but we hit 54.76% last year despite some bad variance and I would expect to hit 54-56% on full games going forward.

Let me again reiterate, we aren't charging for the WNBA plays this year! This despite quite an abundant following as evidenced by how fast lines move when plays are released on our forum and Twitter. You would think someone so "scummy" would take every available dollar available to them, but we aren't.

[Justin7]

We don't have a sufficient sample size either way, and it is obviously selective recordkeeping to ignore all of 2008 and the second half plays, but we hit 54.76% last year despite some bad variance and I would expect to hit 54-56% on full games going forward.

Let me again reiterate, we aren't charging for the WNBA plays this year! This despite quite an abundant following as evidenced by how fast lines move when plays are released on our forum and Twitter. You would think someone so "scummy" would take every available dollar available to them, but we aren't.

I never called you scummy.

I have noticed that WNBA markets are getting tougher. I think it is fair to disregard older years to estimate future win-rates... But 54% is a fine win rate, especially if there are a lot of plays.

[Edward-RAS]

Can you give a specific example of when you believe RAS leaked, and the leak front-run you, and your line (and the market) was worse than the release?

There has never been a line used for grading that was not very widely available at time of release.

[Edward-RAS]

I never called you scummy.

I have noticed that WNBA markets are getting tougher. I think it is fair to disregard older years to estimate future win-rates... But 54% is a fine win rate, especially if there are a lot of plays.

I know you didn't, I was referencing the other poster with that.

I agree, market is tougher than it was in 2008, and I don't expect to hit 63% again for any sort of large sample size, but something in the 54-56% range is realistic.

[Justin7]

I know you didn't, I was referencing the other poster with that.

I agree, market is tougher than it was in 2008, and I don't expect to hit 63% again for any sort of large sample size, but something in the 54-56% range is realistic.

Here's the 64k question: If you had to bet on your win rate on the next 100 plays, where would you set the over/under at +100? Would you bet over 55% +101? If someone put up 100k on the other side, would you take it?

I'm not busting your chops... It's a serious question to assess your confidence.

[donjuan]

Can you give a specific example of when you believe RAS leaked, and the leak front-run you, and your line (and the market) was worse than the release?

Read the links I posted. Tells you everything you need to know about RAS's integrity, both in the past and going forward.

[Edward-RAS]

Here's the 64k question: If you had to bet on your win rate on the next 100 plays, where would you set the over/under at +100? Would you bet over 55% +101? If someone put up 100k on the other side, would you take it?

I'm not busting your chops... It's a serious question to assess your confidence.

Good question. What release time? What type of WA standard? How many books to choose from, etc.?

[Justin7]

Read the links I posted. Tells you everything you need to know about RAS's integrity, both in the past and going forward.

don,

I skimmed one of the threads quickly.

Do you believe RAS record-keeping is sketchy?

[Justin7]

Good question. What release time? What type of WA standard? How many books to choose from, etc.?

Release time is on game day, after 11:00am EST. Your release is graded against the worst price of: Pinnacle, Bookmaker and Greek at the time you release.

[Edward-RAS]

Read the links I posted. Tells you everything you need to know about RAS's integrity, both in the past and going forward.

Seriously, if you think what is depicted in those threads is any representation of me, my team, or the service, you are badly mistaken. The events that got everyone worked up there happened for a 6 week period in 2008, and I have had the service since 1996.

Whether you measure by long term win rates, transparent recordkeeping, use of widely available lines, closing line value, responsible marketing, player education, or just about any other standard, we are in the top 0.01% of the industry.

[NrmlCurvSurfr]

I made hammer jealous with what I did to the ML.

Nice call...Didnt even need the 8

[donjuan]

don,

I skimmed one of the threads quickly.

Do you believe RAS record-keeping is sketchy?

I cannot speak to the record keeping of RAS, although someone in that thread claimed the record keeping was dubious.

[donjuan]

Seriously, if you think what is depicted in those threads is any representation of me, my team, or the service, you are badly mistaken. The events that got everyone worked up there happened for a 6 week period in 2008, and I have had the service since 1996.

Whether you measure by long term win rates, transparent recordkeeping, use of widely available lines, closing line value, responsible marketing, player education, or just about any other standard, we are in the top 0.01% of the industry.

Again, you're being disingenuous or you're a moron. Which is it?

[El Sol]

I would just ignore DonJuan Ed.

Over the years he has spewed only hatred and venom toward other posters. I have yet to see him say anything positive to anyone or contribute anything useful, educational or productive to prove he is nothing more than your common, albeit knowledgeable, degenerate gambler. He is simply a sad individual who is pissed off at the world and looking for an outlet to vent.

He is nobody, move on

[Edward-RAS]

Release time is on game day, after 11:00am EST. Your release is graded against the worst price of: Pinnacle, Bookmaker and Greek at the time you release.

Assuming we had two 10 week seasons to complete the 100 plays (we always stop at that point to focus on CFB), and ties were discarded, I would make the line 54 over -115, and would bet o53.5 -105 for a significant amount.

[Edward-RAS]

I would just ignore DonJuan Ed.

Over the years he has spewed only hatred and venom toward other posters. I have yet to see him say anything positive to anyone or contribute anything useful, educational or productive to prove he is nothing more than your common, albeit knowledgeable, degenerate gambler. He is simply a sad individual who is pissed off at the world and looking for an outlet to vent.

He is nobody, move on

Appreciate you letting me know that.

[donjuan]

I would just ignore DonJuan Ed.

Over the years he has spewed only hatred and venom toward other posters. I have yet to see him say anything positive to anyone or contribute anything useful, educational or productive to prove he is nothing more than your common, albeit knowledgeable, degenerate gambler. He is simply a sad individual who is pissed off at the world and looking for an outlet to vent.

He is nobody, move on

Maybe you should try reading, then.

[daimoshokage]

nice hit justin

[durito]

Appreciate you letting me know that.

Yea, listen to degenerates, ignore the professionals is always a good strategy.

[Extra Innings]

5 points off?

Let's not get carried away.

Welcome to SBR.... 96% of posters don't know what the fukk they're talking about...locks and lines off by 5 or 10 points

[Edward-RAS]

Yea, listen to degenerates, ignore the professionals is always a good strategy.

I don't have any background on either poster, but what El Sol posted did make some sense.

[Bluehorseshoe]

Welcome to SBR.... 96% of posters don't know what the fukk they're talking about...locks and lines off by 5 or 10 points

I ended up being right.

[BigDaddy]

I don't have any background on either poster, but what El Sol posted did make some sense.

just ask durito next time

he knows everything.

[Extra Innings]

I ended up being right.

Not saying youre right or wrong...I am just saying it is a rare occasion that lines (spreads) are 5 points off market. I don't even need to know math to be confident about that statement. If I saw a spread that "I thought" was 5 points off I probably wouldn't even bet it.

[Bluehorseshoe]

Not saying youre right or wrong...I am just saying it is a rare occasion that lines (spreads) are 5 points off market. I don't even need to know math to be confident about that statement. If I saw a spread that "I thought" was 5 points off I probably wouldn't even bet it.

It was that way all weekend. Justin and I compared "our lines" yesterday and we had similar leans on all four games. 3 out of 4 won. The Minny line was off the most yesterday with me. A 4-1 team getting 3 points from a 1-4 team?? How is that not the other way around?

[pavyracer]

I thought Justin7 showed us how to beat the WNBA in his New York Times Best Seller "Conquering The WNBA".

[Extra Innings]

It was that way all weekend. Justin and I compared "our lines" yesterday and we had similar leans on all four games. 3 out of 4 won. The Minny line was off the most yesterday with me. A 4-1 team getting 3 points from a 1-4 team?? How is that not the other way around?

Nice...just thought you were an average joe such as myself. If I had such confidence/knowledge I'd retire. Keep up the good work.

[Edward-RAS]

Here's the 64k question: If you had to bet on your win rate on the next 100 plays, where would you set the over/under at +100? Would you bet over 55% +101? If someone put up 100k on the other side, would you take it?

I'm not busting your chops... It's a serious question to assess your confidence.

More food for thought: We are now 60-40 last 100 WNBA full game releases dating back to May 2010.