In my series writeup, I put $875 on the Heat at -175 to win the series. I was content with this bet because as I said "I know how good Dallas is" and I didn't want to overdue it.
Having watched these past 5 games, I am fully convinced that Miami will win both games 6 and 7 at home. My series writeup has been accurate thus far and I expected this series to go 6 or 7 from the beginning, though I thought Miami would close it in 6. They let a few games slip away, and this series really should be 3-2 going Miami's way right now, but you have to give Dirk credit. This is what he's been waiting for, and he's the only reason why you don't underestimate the Mavs. His will to win is probably greater than anyone else's on the court.
I am not going to get into the Xs and Os because these next two games will play out just like I predicted in the initial writeup. After games 1 and 2, I kept comparing this series to the Boston LA series last year and people kept asking me why. Now you guys can see it is playing out that same exact way.
The Mavs seem very focused right now. Dirk has the focus Bryant did last year and Jordan did for many years. It's a killer instinct. No one else on the Mavs has this instinct. I expect Dirk to do his thing, but when it comes down to it, I just can't see the Mavs winning a game 7 in Miami because of Dallas's role players. I am giving them a good shot to win game 6, but I will take my chances with Miami in game 6, and if they win, I have a -105 ML for game 7 risking $1050.
Of course, I am a Wade fan since he came into the league and want him to win. But Dirk is also one of my favorite players and he definitely deserves a ring. I really do feel for Dirk though because I don't think he'll get one because his supporting cast I've determined after watching game 5 3 times is really not good at all.
I really see the Mavs guards (Barea, Terry, Kidd, and Stevenson) letting down Dirk in these next two games on the DEFENSIVE end. I don't think these guys have the athleticism, or talent to win a game 7 ALL OUT kind of game, which will be a strictly defensive game. The Mavs gave up over 100 points on their home floor and now they're going to go into Miami with them being desperate and hold them under 95? I highly doubt it.
Another adjustment is to make Dirk work more on the defensive end. He's the worst Mavs defender on the court. Move the ball around, make him get some switches on Bosh or James. He'll have trouble guarding any face up player.
The Heat will pick apart the Mavs zone in these next couple of games. We all know what we're going to get from Wade with the Heat. Carlisle has drawn up a pretty brilliant scheme to limit the paint activity of Lebron James. The reason why Wade is more effective against the zone is because he's more agile and crafty.[CODE]
However, Lebron is still the best athlete on the court, so it really comes down to what he wants to do. Like I mentioned I'm not gonna get into the Xs and Os of all the other players and what adjustments will be made because that will make for much too long and boring of a writeup lol, but as most know, if Lebron's jump shot starts falling, and Wade has it going as well, the game is over.
I would like to say that the Mavs +5.5 are a good play in game 6, but then again, I'm not willing to put my money on the fact that "Lebron will play average at home." I'm not buying into the ESPN bullshit. This is a world class athlete, he'll figure it out, and the rest will fall into place for the Heat once that happens. If the Mavs give Lebron confidence in game 6, that is gonna carry over to game 7. Giving a player like that any confidence is trouble, so Carlisle better have something new drawn up. Because the zone is not gonna work. I'm telling you right now. Watch game 5 again and look how vulnerable it is.
Even though Dallas might have all the coaching advantages, the right game plan, and efficient execution, I really don't see them being able to win this series for the mere reason that they are a jump shooting team. I've been watching this league for a long time and never once have I witnessed a team like the Dallas Mavs win an NBA championship. The fact is game 5 came down to the wire and the Mavs shot lights out. Literally. That will NEVER happen again. I have looked at this unbiasly in every way possible. In the end, defense wins championships, and i'm going to let my money ride here since its the last few games of the year. In this game or even game 7, I just don't see Dallas's guards being given any room to create any offense. They are really not that good as advertised off the dribble, and as I said imo that will be their downfall because jump shooting teams don't win rings.
JR I posted that last screen shot for game 5 (which I lost) just for you. I told you I don't fuk around. Good luck to everyone, if Dallas wins I think it's going to have to be game 6. Points will be at a premium for them just like they were for Boston in the last couple of games. The Mavs are not gonna go away in either game 6 or 7 but they just don't have the personel to win 1 out of these next 2 games. They really don't. They were never that close in game 1 and game 2 was as good as over before Dirk became Dirk. Mavs struggled to win 2 of 3 games at home, and I mean really struggled. Dirk had to bail them out in every single game. Last year in game 7, the Lakers shot 20 more FTs then Boston. WIth Dallas getting the majority of the calls for this series (somehow they are getting calls even though they are scoring way less points in the paint than the Heat), expect it to go the other way when Miami is at home.
Risking $1050 to win $1000 on Miami -105
Having watched these past 5 games, I am fully convinced that Miami will win both games 6 and 7 at home. My series writeup has been accurate thus far and I expected this series to go 6 or 7 from the beginning, though I thought Miami would close it in 6. They let a few games slip away, and this series really should be 3-2 going Miami's way right now, but you have to give Dirk credit. This is what he's been waiting for, and he's the only reason why you don't underestimate the Mavs. His will to win is probably greater than anyone else's on the court.
I am not going to get into the Xs and Os because these next two games will play out just like I predicted in the initial writeup. After games 1 and 2, I kept comparing this series to the Boston LA series last year and people kept asking me why. Now you guys can see it is playing out that same exact way.
The Mavs seem very focused right now. Dirk has the focus Bryant did last year and Jordan did for many years. It's a killer instinct. No one else on the Mavs has this instinct. I expect Dirk to do his thing, but when it comes down to it, I just can't see the Mavs winning a game 7 in Miami because of Dallas's role players. I am giving them a good shot to win game 6, but I will take my chances with Miami in game 6, and if they win, I have a -105 ML for game 7 risking $1050.
Of course, I am a Wade fan since he came into the league and want him to win. But Dirk is also one of my favorite players and he definitely deserves a ring. I really do feel for Dirk though because I don't think he'll get one because his supporting cast I've determined after watching game 5 3 times is really not good at all.
I really see the Mavs guards (Barea, Terry, Kidd, and Stevenson) letting down Dirk in these next two games on the DEFENSIVE end. I don't think these guys have the athleticism, or talent to win a game 7 ALL OUT kind of game, which will be a strictly defensive game. The Mavs gave up over 100 points on their home floor and now they're going to go into Miami with them being desperate and hold them under 95? I highly doubt it.
Another adjustment is to make Dirk work more on the defensive end. He's the worst Mavs defender on the court. Move the ball around, make him get some switches on Bosh or James. He'll have trouble guarding any face up player.
The Heat will pick apart the Mavs zone in these next couple of games. We all know what we're going to get from Wade with the Heat. Carlisle has drawn up a pretty brilliant scheme to limit the paint activity of Lebron James. The reason why Wade is more effective against the zone is because he's more agile and crafty.[CODE]
However, Lebron is still the best athlete on the court, so it really comes down to what he wants to do. Like I mentioned I'm not gonna get into the Xs and Os of all the other players and what adjustments will be made because that will make for much too long and boring of a writeup lol, but as most know, if Lebron's jump shot starts falling, and Wade has it going as well, the game is over.
I would like to say that the Mavs +5.5 are a good play in game 6, but then again, I'm not willing to put my money on the fact that "Lebron will play average at home." I'm not buying into the ESPN bullshit. This is a world class athlete, he'll figure it out, and the rest will fall into place for the Heat once that happens. If the Mavs give Lebron confidence in game 6, that is gonna carry over to game 7. Giving a player like that any confidence is trouble, so Carlisle better have something new drawn up. Because the zone is not gonna work. I'm telling you right now. Watch game 5 again and look how vulnerable it is.
Even though Dallas might have all the coaching advantages, the right game plan, and efficient execution, I really don't see them being able to win this series for the mere reason that they are a jump shooting team. I've been watching this league for a long time and never once have I witnessed a team like the Dallas Mavs win an NBA championship. The fact is game 5 came down to the wire and the Mavs shot lights out. Literally. That will NEVER happen again. I have looked at this unbiasly in every way possible. In the end, defense wins championships, and i'm going to let my money ride here since its the last few games of the year. In this game or even game 7, I just don't see Dallas's guards being given any room to create any offense. They are really not that good as advertised off the dribble, and as I said imo that will be their downfall because jump shooting teams don't win rings.
JR I posted that last screen shot for game 5 (which I lost) just for you. I told you I don't fuk around. Good luck to everyone, if Dallas wins I think it's going to have to be game 6. Points will be at a premium for them just like they were for Boston in the last couple of games. The Mavs are not gonna go away in either game 6 or 7 but they just don't have the personel to win 1 out of these next 2 games. They really don't. They were never that close in game 1 and game 2 was as good as over before Dirk became Dirk. Mavs struggled to win 2 of 3 games at home, and I mean really struggled. Dirk had to bail them out in every single game. Last year in game 7, the Lakers shot 20 more FTs then Boston. WIth Dallas getting the majority of the calls for this series (somehow they are getting calls even though they are scoring way less points in the paint than the Heat), expect it to go the other way when Miami is at home.
Risking $1050 to win $1000 on Miami -105
