Over/Under talk game 2

[hels]

187.5 game 1 and they score 176 combined.

186.5 for game 2.

Why are they going to score more than 10 more points tonight? Under is the square play but I don't see anything different happening tonight.

[thebestthereis]

in marquee games like the nba finals, squares are not betting the under

[ManBearPig]

IMO the games that favor Miami will go under and the games that favor Dallas will go over. When I say favor I mean stat-wise the team that is playing their game. We know that Miami is more of a defense oriented team and Dallas is more offense oriented. It comes down to pace and offensive/defensive efficiency. Just look at the efficiency rating and you can clearly see why Miami won and the game went under.

I'm not saying that DAL can't win a low scoring affair or MIA a high scoring, but this is contrary to how these two play so the correlation would be that if MIA wins it's most likely a low scoring game and if DAL wins it will most likely be higher because they like to push the pace. The problem is you can't know this beforehand which is what makes this a toss-up to me. I think most people are making an assumption that it goes over because last game went under, the line is lower and these two teams have gone over 4 of last 5. You need to dig deeper than that though.

You may be better off looking at half plays or looking for some live plays based on the current box score because you will see more value than you do right now. I would avoid this line as it's fairly sharp and I don't think the zig-zag theory applies to totals...it comes down to synergy and efficiency...and throw in the refs for good measure as well.

[hels]

in marquee games like the nba finals, squares are not betting the under

I can see your point but usually squares follow the trends.... the whole playoffs Miami has had lower scoring games as they've played some good D. Maybe the public just believes that the 3 kings are going to put up 30 a piece every night. I just can't find any reason not too play the under.

[chargers4222]

you gotta bet the over bro do you see all these great cappers on over?! OVER!

[qbsafety8]

Under... You learn more defensively in a previous game then u do offensively... Publics on the over. Ride the under til they take it down 4 more points

[thebestthereis]

joe six pack wants to watch the game, drink some beers, and make a bet. in the end he cannot decide and goes with the over on sheer impulse. maybe tease with the over in a lot of cases as well.

[hels]

joe six pack wants to watch the game, drink some beers, and make a bet. in the end he cannot decide and goes with the over on sheer impulse. maybe tease with the over in a lot of cases as well.

I expected to see around a 4 point drop in the line as well but 1 point drop is fairly negligible. Usually when there isn't change you should take the opposite of what hit last time... however, here I just don't feel like that is going to happen. I only see it going over if Dallas wins..... but of course it's 50/50 over/under if Dallas wins.

[bruce0]

you gotta bet the over bro do you see all these great cappers on over?! OVER!

Yeah I haven't seen one capper on the under yet, and the public is increasingly on the over...Not a good sign.

[southpaw74]

Well they both shot like crap...under 40% and didn't foul much down the stretch. They also shot free throws poorly. Hard for me to take the under but it sure might hit

[Love The Action]

Yeah I haven't seen one capper on the under yet, and the public is increasingly on the over...Not a good sign.

According to several articles I have read, the books are taking more public action on the under with more sharp money on the over. With that said, however, those comments are meaningless because they could be trying to fake us out.

Bottom line is that these two teams only missed the over in game one by 10 points despite hitting a record low amount of first quarter points and both shot below 38%. That poor shooting was not the result of defense alone as easy wide open looks were also missed. I believe this can be attributed primarily to the long layoff and being out of rhythm. In game 2, we do not have to deal with such a layoff and it is unlikely that they shoot so poorly two games in a row. We only need five
more shots to fall if they play at the
same slow pace. If they play a little faster, this game should sail over. Dallas has shot well all playoffs and my money says they at least shoot 43% tonight and that is all we need to cash the over. I have this game capped at 190 and fully expect these two teams to score that amount or more. Good luck over backers!

[hels]

According to several articles I have read, the books are taking more public action on the under with more sharp money on the over. With that said, however, those comments are meaningless because they could be trying to fake us out. Bottom line is that these two teams only missed the over in game one by 10 points despite hitting a record low amount of first quarter points and both shot below 38%. That poor shooting was not the result of defense alone as easy wide open looks were also missed. I believe this can be attributed primarily to the long layoff and being out of rhythm. In game 2, we do not have to deal with such a layoff and it is unlikely that they shoot so poorly two games in a row. We only need five more shots to fall if they play at the same slow pace. If they play a little faster, this game should sail over. Dallas has shot well all playoffs and my money says they at least shoot 43% tonight and that is all we need to cash the over. I have this game capped at 190 and fully expect these two teams to score that amount or more. Good luck over backers!

You have some valid points but if you look at the 3 point shooting both teams were over 40% and took over 20 shots each. Can we rely on such great 3 point shots again tonight?

[ManBearPig]

You have some valid points but if you look at the 3 point shooting both teams were over 40% and took over 20 shots each. Can we rely on such great 3 point shots again tonight?

No...but on the contrary we should be asking if we expect both teams to shoot < 40% from the field tonight??? I don't think so. The nerves we saw in G1 will be gone and both teams will not miss so many open jumpers.

[bruce0]

"

[hels]

No...but on the contrary we should be asking if we expect both teams to shoot < 40% from the field tonight??? I don't think so. The nerves we saw in G1 will be gone and both teams will not miss so many open jumpers.

So let's say both teams take the same number of shots but the %'s for 3pt and field goals are reversed. I highly doubt the scores would be much changed.

Also saying nerves factored into the poor shooting is not valid. There is no data to support game 1 jitters (in any series, championship or not).

Also, will we see 58 free throws again? 1/4 of the total points scored came from the line.

Both teams were playing 1/2 court offense and the only times you would see quick shots were from offensive boards (6-Dal, 16-Mia). This was mainly Dallas as quite often Miami would reset.

Obviously I've made my play on the Under and feel confident with it. All the other threads I've read I have seen most people on the over which makes me feel confident as well.

[Karim]

i´m pretty sure this game will end in an over which i played big

and i never lose big bets on nba


even when in the end only 180 points fall

i will win , because its going to be 90:90

[Love The Action]

"

[bruce0]

Those numbers are meaningless because they apply only to bets made at Sportsbook.com. I won't deny total number of bets favor the over, however, that is the case in most nba games. You need to dig deeper. Regardless, the public wins 45-50% of the time so blindly fading the public is not successful. You need to pick your spots to fade the public and pick your spots to ride the public if you want to be consistently profitable.

Oh yeah, squares win, no doubt. I'm not blndly fading, I just don't like the public playing my play, as well the majority of touts on SBR. The point is that the public is on the over due to the percentage of bets placed being on over. Previous poster said the public play is the under and this shows no evidence of it.

[ManBearPig]

So let's say both teams take the same number of shots but the %'s for 3pt and field goals are reversed. I highly doubt the scores would be much changed. Also saying nerves factored into the poor shooting is not valid. There is no data to support game 1 jitters (in any series, championship or not). Also, will we see 58 free throws again? 1/4 of the total points scored came from the line. Both teams were playing 1/2 court offense and the only times you would see quick shots were from offensive boards (6-Dal, 16-Mia). This was mainly Dallas as quite often Miami would reset. Obviously I've made my play on the Under and feel confident with it. All the other threads I've read I have seen most people on the over which makes me feel confident as well.

Of course jitters can't be validated...do you think players going around admitting they missed a bunch of open jumpers because of nerves??? Of course not and it's a completely valid argument. What did these two teams combine for in the 1Q again???

To ignore shooting %'s is sloppy and you can not assume that the fact that more 3's were shot and made made up for the missed FG's. I'm not trying to talk anyone out of their plays and I have no dog in this fight because I don't feel comfortable in either play. If you are each to their own.

If you look at this more advanced boxscore you can clearly see exactly why the game was low scoring and make assumptions from there. I'm not going to get into it but there is much more to take from this as it's much more than shooting percentages. Just looking at this there are numbers that could lend to the over just by comparing Dallas' averages alone.

[winmoney]

i think your right the mavs vs heat will go under the total 186 (now 187) why? becuase of shots attemped. last game total attemps was 147 (mavs 67) (heat 80) now for an average team there 80 shots put up and there average percentage is 42% thats 33.6 makes, times that by 2 you get 67 points (but out of those you have factor in the 3 point shot) and an average 40% of an average of 20 jack-ups that brings 8 extra points. total is 75 ponits. at that rate if both teams had 75 points you get 150. now miami is going to just get to 80 attemps and if it gose over the mavs have to get at least 90 attemps for it to go over. the under looks over priced at 186 it should have been O/U at 177. take the UNDER

[TheMoneyShot]

Fellas... we have the NBA Finals here... the refs start blowing the whistle every time down the court... we're going to see an over. If the refs forget where they put their whistle... we'll have an under. If Dallas has any chance of winning... they must get to the free throw line... which would indicate an over. There's no possible way Miami will play lousy defense... Dallas will shoot around the same field goal percentage as they did in Game 1. Perhaps that's why no change really in the over/under?

[chargers4222]

over for sure NO WAY they score that little points again over baby!!!

[Love The Action]

Of course jitters can't be validated...do you think players going around admitting they missed a bunch of open jumpers because of nerves??? Of course not and it's a completely valid argument. What did these two teams combine for in the 1Q again???

To ignore shooting %'s is sloppy and you can not assume that the fact that more 3's were shot and made made up for the missed FG's. I'm not trying to talk anyone out of their plays and I have no dog in this fight because I don't feel comfortable in either play. If you are each to their own.

If you look at this more advanced boxscore you can clearly see exactly why the game was low scoring and make assumptions from there. I'm not going to get into it but there is much more to take from this as it's much more than shooting percentages. Just looking at this there are numbers that could lend to the over just by comparing Dallas' averages alone.

MBP...I appreciate your contribution to the forum. Feel free to stop by my thread if you ever want to discuss nba totals or any other play. Thanks.

[ManBearPig]

The more I look at the detailed numbers the more I like the over...oh and Crawford is on this one, should be a good time. I'm just going to sit back and see how it plays out though.

[ManBearPig]

MBP...I appreciate your contribution to the forum. Feel free to stop by my thread if you ever want to discuss nba totals or any other play. Thanks.

Well thanks...I just try to help but it feels like it falls on deaf ears so I dunno why I bother sometimes.

[bruce0]

Of course jitters can't be validated...do you think players going around admitting they missed a bunch of open jumpers because of nerves??? Of course not and it's a completely valid argument. What did these two teams combine for in the 1Q again???

To ignore shooting %'s is sloppy and you can not assume that the fact that more 3's were shot and made made up for the missed FG's. I'm not trying to talk anyone out of their plays and I have no dog in this fight because I don't feel comfortable in either play. If you are each to their own.

If you look at this more advanced boxscore you can clearly see exactly why the game was low scoring and make assumptions from there. I'm not going to get into it but there is much more to take from this as it's much more than shooting percentages. Just looking at this there are numbers that could lend to the over just by comparing Dallas' averages alone.

Thanks for the link...yeah it seems like we should expect more free throws and fgs made, but less 3pts. I woudl also think that Dallas does a better job controlling tempo, to hopefully speed up the play rate.

[romaldinho88]

i think everyone should take into account that there was 32 points scored in the last 4.30 minutes of this game in which Miami made everything,Miamis defense controlled the whole ball game and their offense exploded at the end of the game, Dallas had an off night and are usually a top 4th quarter team.I expect the defense to be much tighter towards the end of the 4th and Miamis 3pt shooting to come down 10% or so.James made 4/5 which was very high even at his standards.
I think Under is the play and the line has only changed in favor of the under which means were beating the closing number and il take that edge.

[Ca$hfloW]

I'm on the under because of miami's defense and dirks finger

[ManBearPig]

Thanks for the link...yeah it seems like we should expect more free throws and fgs made, but less 3pts. I woudl also think that Dallas does a better job controlling tempo, to hopefully speed up the play rate.

This is why I like EFG% over 2pt/3pt% separately. I'm more concerned with the rate at which teams are scoring and how efficiently they are doing it regardless if its worth 2 or 3 points that will effect the total points more than how many shots they took and hit from 2 or 3.

Dallas was far below their efficiency averages for the playoffs in game 1 and it wasn't because Miami entirely. They are scoring around 1.13 ppp for the playoffs, in game one they were hovering around 1. I would be shocked if that is repeated tonight. Also, Miami didn't have the greatest offensive game either and we all know that Dallas isn't known for their defense. Look for those numbers to improve tonight thus more scoring. Sure this could go under but I'd say it's 60/40 in favor of the over and it looks like the line is following this trend.

[bruce0]

Whoa that was close!

[Karim]

i´m pretty sure this game will end in an over which i played big

and i never lose big bets on nba


even when in the end only 180 points fall

i will win , because its going to be 90:90

not 90:90 but 93:93 sealed the over

don´t fade me guys, u wont win any bet

[romaldinho88]

i nailed the under at 188.5.waited for the best line at the tip,won by half a point,lucky.

[Rolo Tumasi]

I parlayed the Over at 187.5 with Mavs ML. That last shot brought it home for me. Nice 1 Dirk (and im a Heat fan! - utter meltdown)

[ManBearPig]

For those that had the total at 188 that must've sucked because the pace was torrid in the 1H and fell off the map in the second, even more than I thought and is precisely the reason I laid off the total in this one because I was favoring the over and would've had 188 -at least they got their money back which isn't the worst thing that could've happened. I almost took the live u200 in the 1H because I thought it was a big number, even at the time.

[Elevated]

I was one of those who got the 188 line but it's ok I still won my parlay