OVER is the play in SA/Mem 4/25/11

[Love The Action]

I just tried to lock the 1h over 105, but my book closed it before I could lock it in. That would have been my play in this OKC/Den game.

[Love The Action]

Man, I can't believe they scored over 50 in 2nd and 3rd quarters of the Portland/Dallas game.

I need that one for a really good night, with some MLB action pending.

[Git Lo]

Thunder already smashing playing very hard defense

[Love The Action]

Still possible guys. Spurs going to have to foul to extend the game. Ive seen loads of games this season where 15-16 pts can be scored in the last 3mins

Nice call Alamo...way to keep the faith (more than I had)...

[Love The Action]

Thunder already smashing playing very hard defense

Agreed...a bit slower pace than I envisioned. However, I just don't think the public wins the under here. We'll see. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Over (188) (-120) in SA/Mem 4 units . WINNER +5 Units (see added units below)

Let me start this off by saying that I usually play unders and I enjoy playing them much more than overs. In addition, I was on all four unders on Sunday and cashed them all. It's clear, the playoffs have shown the under to be the right side more often than not. However, the SA/Mem game provides us with some good value on the over and I am going to play it for a minimum of 4 units. After checking the ref assignments, this wager may go up. I just have to play the value here.

The total opened at 189 and remains there as I type. Neither Pinny nor any other book is juicing either the over or the under. However, you currently have 66% of the public on the under which shows me the books are reluctant to lower this line. However, as the public bets come in, you will see that percentage slowly shift to favor the over. I would not take the over if it hits 191. However, I believe the line will go down to 188.5 or maybe even 188 by mid morning and then slowly rise back to about 190 from public money coming in on the over. Therefore, I plan on locking this in while I am at work around 9 or 10 am CST.

Because the last two games went under, we have great value on the over for a game involving two of the best "over" teams throughout the regular season. Perhaps you might say that the regular season doesn't matter? Well, it does give us an understanding of how these teams like to play. Even though both teams are good defensive teams, I think the pace of this game should provide us with an over when set at a total of 189 and below.

Here are some of the other reason I like the over here:

• The Spurs were the best three point shooting team in the league during the regular season hitting over 30% . However, in the last game they only hit 2 for 15. If you add 3 to 4 more of those treys going in, you are going to add 9 to 12 points to the final score. That would be enough to put us over a total set at 188 or 189. I expect, after losing two games already, that the Spurs come out shooting and come out hot.
• The pace is one that should get us at least 190 points. We are looking at over 190 possessions and 160 fg attempts. All we need is these two teams to shoot around 43% to cash the over if they play at the current pace they have been playing
• My deviation spreadsheet has this game no lower than 193 points (although my spreadsheet is more conducive to the regular season).
• These two teams were a combined 48-33 in favor of the over when playing playoff caliber teams throughout the regular season. This means that, in playoff type games, both teams have a significant over lean when playing against other good teams.
• Both teams generally played to the over when either as a small (less than 2 points) dog or favorite this year.
• These two teams are a combined 8-2 to the over playing on one day rest in their last 10 games.
• I think that because all the unders hit on Sunday, you might have more of the public overreacting and playing the under more than normal. I love fading the majority. Although, I as I mentioned before, I expect money to come in on the over at some point.
• The Spurs know they need to play a fast paced, offensive game to win. They don't have the muscle to hang with Memphis (Randolph, Gasol, etc.) in the paint. Consequently, I think the Spurs understand they need to run and gun this game. They need to shoot a lot of threes and they need to keep up the pace to win. I trust that will happen and think Parker, Neal, Hill, Bonner and Jefferson to all have good games.

I like the Spurs to come out strong in this game. After all, this game is a must win for the Spurs. They will come out and give Memphis all they can handle. A lot of the Spurs had a poor second half last game and will want to redeem themselves. Especially Manu with that last play of the game.

At the end of the day, Memphis has played better so far and I think the Spurs take it personally. I like the Spurs to win this one 100 - 91 or so. Let's see who the refs are in the morning, because, as we all know, the refs can make or break and over/under play in the playoffs. If the refs favor the over in this one, I could up this to a six or ten unit play. I really like the value here. The only thing that would hold me back is my disdain for playing overs. I'll try to update the line movements and percentages tomorrow while I'm at work as much as possible.

Good luck guys. As always, I love to hear opposing viewpoints so we can learn from each other. So let me hear from you under backers.

]Adding 1 more unit to the spurs over play at 189. Line movement is in our favor as pinny juicing over 189 big time. I also put .5 unit on 1q and 1h over. I like the fact that this is the only total that didn't close below its opener despite all the action on the under.

I just took the under in Portland/Dallas for one unit. That is the only under I am playing and the only one not favored by the public.

Adding one unit to portland under. Total of 2 units on Portland/Dallas under WINNER + 2 Units

NBA for 4/24/11 2-0 +7 Units
(I also won the 1h over but lost the 1q over by 1/2 a point)

The more I look at the boxscore, the more I feel like the over deserved to win. This was not a lucky win per se. If the over would have lost, I think you could say that would have been unlucky. That game was on an over pace until 5 minutes left.

The line movement supported this play all day and I predicted the line would dip down and then go back up. It was clear smart money was on this game. This game shaped up as a classic public fade.

In my writeup, I said that one of things SA needed to do was hit 3-4 more three pointers than 2-15 they shot in the previous game. In this game, they shot poorly, but still hit 5-18 treys. The exact three more treys that I predicted. That's an additional 9 points over the previous game and just what we needed to get over the hump.

I said the Spurs would come out strong and firing early and that's just what happened. The Spurs were up 7 early and led by 2 at the half. We predicted the 1h over and that hit. The game was on an over pace the whole way through until about 5 minutes left in the game. I predicted a pace around 180-190 possessions and that is what we got (186) to be exact. For all of those reasons, I feel like the over was the right play and deserved to hit. Yes, we got lucky to cash it with a meaningless alley oop to win the game, however, we deserved to win that game and cash the 5 units.

Sorry under backers...but the over was the right play in that game.

[Git Lo]

Over was the right play if they left the starters out it probably would of been over grizzlies were draining 3s and such but now you have to account if there is a blowout all the garbage minutes the bench will get to keep the starters healthy.

[Love The Action]

Early leans for tomorrow:

Atl/Orl Under 178
Bulls/Pacers Over 187
NO/LAL Under 183

Out of those three, I will probably play the two unders. Plus, nothing bigger than a one or two unit play tomorrow. However, if we get some decent ref assignments, the bet size could increase.

Tough night on the bases tonight, although we did cash the Toronto ML play as they beat the Rangers. However, the Cincy under got beat early and Oakland got beat by Weaver and LAA in a game that stayed under. Nevertheless, that's only my second day in the last ten not turning a MLB profit, so i can't complain.

All in all, however, I am still up 5-6 units tonight depending if the extra inning Braves game pushes or goes over for the win. Good luck on everyone's plays tomorrow.

Good luck tomorrow! Let's keep o

[JOHON8]

I only come to this forum anymore for analysis that people like you provide.

Keep up the good work.