Over in SA/Mem 4 units (more pending ref assignments). I have not locked it in yet because I am waiting to get 188.5 or 188 before the line goes back up to 189 or above.
Let me start this off by saying that I usually play unders and I enjoy playing them much more than overs. In addition, I was on all four unders on Sunday and cashed them all. It's clear, the playoffs have shown the under to be the right side more often than not. However, the SA/Mem game provides us with some good value on the over and I am going to play it for a minimum of 4 units. After checking the ref assignments, this wager may go up. I just have to play the value here.
The total opened at 189 and remains there as I type. Neither Pinny nor any other book is juicing either the over or the under. However, you currently have 66% of the public on the under which shows me the books are reluctant to lower this line. However, as the public bets come in, you will see that percentage slowly shift to favor the over. I would not take the over if it hits 191. However, I believe the line will go down to 188.5 or maybe even 188 by mid morning and then slowly rise back to about 190 from public money coming in on the over. Therefore, I plan on locking this in while I am at work around 9 or 10 am CST.
Because the last two games went under, we have great value on the over for a game involving two of the best "over" teams throughout the regular season. Perhaps you might say that the regular season doesn't matter? Well, it does give us an understanding of how these teams like to play. Even though both teams are good defensive teams, I think the pace of this game should provide us with an over when set at a total of 189 and below.
Here are some of the other reason I like the over here:
I like the Spurs to come out strong in this game. After all, this game is a must win for the Spurs. They will come out and give Memphis all they can handle. A lot of the Spurs had a poor second half last game and will want to redeem themselves. Especially Manu with that last play of the game.
At the end of the day, Memphis has played better so far and I think the Spurs take it personally. I like the Spurs to win this one 100 - 91 or so. Let's see who the refs are in the morning, because, as we all know, the refs can make or break and over/under play in the playoffs. If the refs favor the over in this one, I could up this to a six or ten unit play. I really like the value here. The only thing that would hold me back is my disdain for playing overs. I'll try to update the line movements and percentages tomorrow while I'm at work as much as possible.
Good luck guys. As always, I love to hear opposing viewpoints so we can learn from each other. So let me hear from you under backers.
Let me start this off by saying that I usually play unders and I enjoy playing them much more than overs. In addition, I was on all four unders on Sunday and cashed them all. It's clear, the playoffs have shown the under to be the right side more often than not. However, the SA/Mem game provides us with some good value on the over and I am going to play it for a minimum of 4 units. After checking the ref assignments, this wager may go up. I just have to play the value here.
The total opened at 189 and remains there as I type. Neither Pinny nor any other book is juicing either the over or the under. However, you currently have 66% of the public on the under which shows me the books are reluctant to lower this line. However, as the public bets come in, you will see that percentage slowly shift to favor the over. I would not take the over if it hits 191. However, I believe the line will go down to 188.5 or maybe even 188 by mid morning and then slowly rise back to about 190 from public money coming in on the over. Therefore, I plan on locking this in while I am at work around 9 or 10 am CST.
Because the last two games went under, we have great value on the over for a game involving two of the best "over" teams throughout the regular season. Perhaps you might say that the regular season doesn't matter? Well, it does give us an understanding of how these teams like to play. Even though both teams are good defensive teams, I think the pace of this game should provide us with an over when set at a total of 189 and below.
Here are some of the other reason I like the over here:
- The Spurs were the best three point shooting team in the league during the regular season hitting over 30% . However, in the last game they only hit 2 for 15. If you add 3 to 4 more of those treys going in, you are going to add 9 to 12 points to the final score. That would be enough to put us over a total set at 188 or 189. I expect, after losing two games already, that the Spurs come out shooting and come out hot.
- The pace is one that should get us at least 190 points. We are looking at over 190 possessions and 160 fg attempts. All we need is these two teams to shoot around 43% to cash the over if they play at the current pace they have been playing
- My deviation spreadsheet has this game no lower than 193 points (although my spreadsheet is more conducive to the regular season).
- These two teams were a combined 48-33 in favor of the over when playing playoff caliber teams throughout the regular season. This means that, in playoff type games, both teams have a significant over lean when playing against other good teams.
- Both teams generally played to the over when either as a small (less than 2 points) dog or favorite this year.
- These two teams are a combined 8-2 to the over playing on one day rest in their last 10 games.
- I think that because all the unders hit on Sunday, you might have more of the public overreacting and playing the under more than normal. I love fading the majority. Although, I as I mentioned before, I expect money to come in on the over at some point.
- The Spurs know they need to play a fast paced, offensive game to win. They don't have the muscle to hang with Memphis (Randolph, Gasol, etc.) in the paint. Consequently, I think the Spurs understand they need to run and gun this game. They need to shoot a lot of threes and they need to keep up the pace to win. I trust that will happen and think Parker, Neal, Hill, Bonner and Jefferson to all have good games.
I like the Spurs to come out strong in this game. After all, this game is a must win for the Spurs. They will come out and give Memphis all they can handle. A lot of the Spurs had a poor second half last game and will want to redeem themselves. Especially Manu with that last play of the game.
At the end of the day, Memphis has played better so far and I think the Spurs take it personally. I like the Spurs to win this one 100 - 91 or so. Let's see who the refs are in the morning, because, as we all know, the refs can make or break and over/under play in the playoffs. If the refs favor the over in this one, I could up this to a six or ten unit play. I really like the value here. The only thing that would hold me back is my disdain for playing overs. I'll try to update the line movements and percentages tomorrow while I'm at work as much as possible.
Good luck guys. As always, I love to hear opposing viewpoints so we can learn from each other. So let me hear from you under backers.
