If You Bet on Totals in NBA, You're an Idiot

[panik]

Liking the Under tonight Chi/Ind

I did the udner in thef first two games and it backlash.... Time to go over.

[TryingMyBest]

LOL yes, when a good defensive teams plays a bad defensive team it will go under. When a bad defensive team plays a good offensive team it will go over. We have found the Holy Grail! If I were a guy behind the counter I would read some of these posts, laugh, and then salivate at the thought of these guys trying to beat the number

[widebody2]

the top 3 offensive teams in the NBA went about .500 in their over/under clip (hell, a team like golden state went under in a lot of their games)

Right....thats exactly how its supposed to be. Did you realize that the favorite covers the spread about 50% of the time too? Thats kind of the way all spreads work...

[Inspirited]

people really need to stop with this "x sport is totally unpredictable and unbeatable and if you bet on it you're an idiot" bs. some people are good at certain sports or certain aspects of the sport and some are not. and when you call people idiots and can't back yourself up you better expect to get pwned. lesson learned. shake it off. get back to doing what you do best or search for the answers.

[Romanov]

No such thing as an efficient market

[BernardMadoff]

Right....thats exactly how its supposed to be. Did you realize that the favorite covers the spread about 50% of the time too? Thats kind of the way all spreads work...

Only a fairly new bettor talks like that, Im almost certain he hasnt been doing this for any length of time.

[frostno98]

Overall I agree that the point spread is a better play, since you don't have rely on both teams to either play decent defensively or offensively to cover a high or low game. Especially when it's in the regular season. Back to back games is where you'll usually get an advantage on the point spread.

The playoffs on the other hand is a different beast, very unpredictable as far as point spread is concern. Because most these teams play hard all the way to the end, making them only a shot from covering or not covering. The better in the playoffs would be betting the Total, since you don't have to worry about unpredictability. Like the underdogs cover close to 15 games already, which is unheard of.

[ManBearPig]

My system is doing pretty well in the playoffs so far...they don't spit out many plays but I'm 10-2, after losing the POR game by 2.5 pts, between the 3 systems so I'm not complaining.

[SquareDinner]

The over and under betting in the NBA is a tad more harder to cap than the over and under in the NFL for a reason that points in the NBA can drive up with so many angles like fouling in the last 2 minutes and what not or the pacing game including lucky 3's. With the NFL, playing the clock is important and when teams play the clock, I'm expecting for such games to go under. A team can actually hold the ball for the whole 4th quarter and just rush to kill the clock or holds the ball until it is at 1 for the play clock .You can not do that in the NBA since the NBA has the shot clock at 24.

In the NFL, you kind of know what a team is playing by what they are doing. Up by 2 scores and they will rush to eat up the clock. If it is a 2 minutes drill like sideline passes, someone is looking to score. Also the scoring is set at 6+1 for a touchdown and 3 for a field goal plus 2 for a safety. Those numbers set up a possibility in our head and we are able to see how the game is going to go. In the NBA, give a team 1 minute and they can go on a 20-0 to jack up the scores or blow the scores by playing chicken like how Portland leads by a ton going in the final stretch and they just gave up by playing chicken with the clock.

[brahmabull117]

Right....thats exactly how its supposed to be. Did you realize that the favorite covers the spread about 50% of the time too? Thats kind of the way all spreads work...

The top 10 teams in NFL scoring this year covered their overs at about 63 percent clip


That's how it should be, if ur a high scoring team, ur games should consistently go over

[Jimb0311]

I love me some total betting on the NBA.

[ManBearPig]

Totals aren't that difficult if you know what to look for. These lines aren't as sharp as sides and you can find off lines but you have to pick and choose. Sure there are scoring droughts or outbursts you can't predict, but if you analyze the data correctly you will see certain patterns/trends that can be exploited. For It comes down to personal preference which doesn't make you an idiot.

For example MIL, LAL, and NOR hit the under on 60%+ of their games this season...well technically LA was at 59.5. Simply recognizing this fact you could blind bet these teams on the under and made some easy money - especially if they paired up. A lot about totals comes down to pace and more often than not the slower paced team will control the pace, especially if they are a stronger team from a PR standpoint.

I don't know how many bets I won blind betting these teams on the under...ORL and ATL are another pair that you could always count on as well. So see you don't have to be a detective or have an overly complex system like I do...these numbers can be found in minutes on many websites.

[blackbox]

Stick to the unders in the playoffs-the intensity on defense always picks up a notch. Also the teams are facing the same team game after game.

[Laker_crazy]

I have been profiting from these totals for the past 3 years now so ain't complaining one bit,to each their own !

[sweetjones55]

dunno, don't care

The answer is very simple and you do know exactly why. The sportsbooks #1 goal is to make as much money as possible. Now if they thought that their totals were very sharp and unbeatable long term then the limits would be at least as high as game spreads. But they are not unbeatable and are in fact not as sharp as game spreads so they have smaller limits on them. Calling people idiots for playing NBA totals is very ignorant and uninformed.

[JR007]

Whose the idiot.????..NBA totals.....hit at roughly54% unders...last two years ...public bets overs and favorites.....lines on tv games always "shaded' 1 to 1.5 points to the over.........hope this helps

[SprtsCapnGuru]

except when the Colts and Patriots play... and the line is ridiculously high they still cover. That's the difference with NBA and NFL total betting. NFL total betting makes perfect sense and anybody with any intelligence can make bank NBA betting is an absolute pain in the ass... and to me it's a crapshoot a lot of times because of variables like pace and possessions that can't always be accounted for I mean for god's sake, you had the heat and the celtics play 2 games within 2 or 3 week stretch...1 game had 168 points and the other had 219 that's a 51 point difference based on nothing more than a huge difference in the pace. How the hell do you even begin to cap that?

In 2008 the Colts beat the Pats 18-15 and in 2009 the Colts beat the Pats 35-34.......that's a 36 point difference between those two totals. Over 5 touchdowns was the difference between both games. That's some serious pace difference. How the hell do you even begin to cap that?

[chilidog]

If you listen to any advice that brahmabull gives you, you are an idiot.

[brahmabull117]

In 2008 the Colts beat the Pats 18-15 and in 2009 the Colts beat the Pats 35-34.......that's a 36 point difference between those two totals. Over 5 touchdowns was the difference between both games. That's some serious pace difference. How the hell do you even begin to cap that?

2008 was the season that Brady was out, so you would have to have been a retard to play that game anyways




and 36 point difference wasn't based on pace, it was based on poor offensive efficiency by the 2 teams



when Brady and Peyton play, the games seemingly always go over. That's exactly what should happen when you have 2 great offensive teams playing

[xxdjstriderxx]

goes to show that even with a 57 point 1q you are still ****** for the over

totals are too unpredictable

[brahmabull117]

If you listen to any advice that brahmabull gives you, you are an idiot.

look at my post history


I have called nearly every game so far in teh NBA playoffs to perfection

[widebody2]

Whose the idiot.????..NBA totals.....hit at roughly54% unders...last two years ...public bets overs and favorites.....lines on tv games always "shaded' 1 to 1.5 points to the over.........hope this helps

51.4% under, during the past 2 years

[widebody2]

The top 10 teams in NFL scoring this year covered their overs at about 63 percent clip


That's how it should be, if ur a high scoring team, ur games should consistently go over

The NFL as a whole covered the over by more than 56% last year. This is not how it should be. This is an example of lines that are not sharp because of the sample size. If you go back 5 years which increases the sample size to a reasonable number the Over covers at 50.8% which is just about where it should be. It is just an area that does not have sharp lines. The reason that the NBA has sharper lines in this department comes down to the sample. The NBA plays many many more games with much higher scores and each bucket does not effect the overall score much (2 or 3 pts). The NFL has a very small sample size with low scoring games. Each time a team scores it changes the total radically since scores are typically worth 3 and 7 points.

Everything is "supposed to be" 50/50. Anywhere there is more than a 2.38% variance from 50/50 it gives the bettor the advantage

[ANGRYBLACK]

Bos/NY u195.5...

[PerfecTrader]

The over and under betting in the NBA is a tad more harder

Grammar Police Fail!