If You Bet on Totals in NBA, You're an Idiot

[brahmabull117]

I have said it before and I will say it again


betting on totals in the NBA is for retards who don't understand the game scores in basketball come down to maybe 60% pace and 40% offensive efficiency. The Problem is that pace is nearly impossible to predict with any real consistently. Efficiency is not that difficult to predict but you can have 2 teams shoot 50% from the field and only score 190 points...and you can have 2 teams shoot 40% from the field and score 210 points. It's a total crapshoot




total betting in football for example is fantastic. Because if you take 2 great offensive teams playing each other, the games will usually go over. You take a great defensive team playing a bad offensive team and the game will go under



the ONLY exception I will make to playing totals is if a certain team has been murdering their lines for a while. For example, I played Indy/NYK earlier this year because both teams had been just scoring monster points for an extended period of time. The knicks had covered the over in their games by a large margin and same thing with Indy



guess what happened in that game?? the 2 teams score a bajillion points in 3 quarters, but the game slowed down to a fukking crawl in the 4th quarter and the 2 teams failed to cover the over by 1 point. Lesson learned, I don't think I'm ever gonna play totals again the NBA

[FishFace5]

fail

[Inspirited]

don't know why so many people think that just because they can't beat something that other people can't also. you're just calling yourself an idiot here. there's a reason why total limits are lower than straight bet limits.

[glassjaw22]

everbodies system is better than the next guys ...go figure

[Love The Action]

What's the point of this post?

I've done very well with my nba totals spreadsheet and know others who kill in totals. I prefer betting nba totals to nba sides any day.

Just because you suck at predicting pace, possesions, trends, shooting %, etc., doesn't mean we all do.

Not looking for conflict, but you sound like the idiot, and an ignorant one at that, for making a blanket statement about one of the few sports wagers you can make and actually have an edge over the books because of line movement (again this assumes you know what you're doing).

I just don't get the point of this post...sorry and gl on your future total bets.

[brahmabull117]

don't know why so many people think that just because they can't beat something that other people can't also. you're just calling yourself an idiot here. there's a reason why total limits are lower than straight bet limits.

the problem is that you're betting on something that has no rhyme or reason to it


it's a crapshoot because total betting again comes down to 60% pace (a random variable from game to game)



the top 3 offensive teams in the NFL this year went OVER in their games at about a 70% clip
the top 3 offensive teams in the NBA went about .500 in their over/under clip (hell, a team like golden state went under in a lot of their games)


you will simply never see that in the NFL.

[Love The Action]

the problem is that you're betting on something that has no rhyme or reason to it


it's a crapshoot because total betting again comes down to 60% pace (a random variable from game to game)



the top 3 offensive teams in the NFL this year went OVER in their games at about a 70% clip
the top 3 offensive teams in the NBA went about .500 in their over/under clip (hell, a team like golden state went under in a lot of their games)


you will simply never see that in the NFL.

Its clear from this post that you don't have a profitable system for betting totals in the nba. Do some research dude...

[brahmabull117]

Just because you suck at predicting pace, possesions, trends, shooting %, etc., doesn't mean we all do.

are you really able to consistently predict all these things?? I wanna see threads where it shows your total plays and your high success rate



the reason that NBA total betting is horsesh!t is you gotta account for about 50 things like you said



NFL total betting = offensive efficiency is the only thing that matters



good offensive team plays bad defensive team = over
good defensive team plays bad offensive team = under



In the NBA, good offensive teams routinely go under (Hell, Phoenix was 0-4 O/U in their games vs Golden State this year), so why even waste time with something that's so hard to predict?

[brahmabull117]

Its clear from this post that you don't have a profitable system for betting totals in the nba. Do some research dude...

I don't believe in systems


I'm an instinctual bettor who relies on matchups, trends and gut instinct




to me, betting on basketball totals is far away the hardest form of totals betting in all of sports (simply due to the high number of possessions which makes pace a very important but very difficult variable to predict).




the heat and celtics played a game opening day that only had 168 points...they played a game a few weeks later that had 219 points. That's a 51 point swing, how the fukk can you predict that??



I just don't know why so many people insist on playing totals when 90% of people I see playing totals either lose or go about .500

[FishFace5]

just stop. your digging yourself deeper with every post

[Soon2BRich]

totals are easier. all you have to do is watch the teams score. At times its hard enough picking a winner in a gae BUt then you have to worry about whether or not they'll cover the spread

[Love The Action]

Its a lot of work to play totals consistently and you have to compile and organize a ton of info. That is why most people don't play nba totals or fail at them. I will try to have a season long thread next year, but that is a big time commitment to do proper writeups, etc. I was turned onto sbr too late for one this year, but have posted some plays I really liked. If you do the work, you can succeed. Good luck

[brahmabull117]

Its a lot of work to play totals consistently and you have to compile and organize a ton of info.

so why even bother with it??



NFL total betting is where it's at



in the NBA, MLs and Spreads is the only real place to bet unless you wanna spend 5 hours a day devising some bullshit "system"

[Love The Action]

so why even bother with it??



NFL total betting is where it's at



in the NBA, MLs and Spreads is the only real place to bet unless you wanna spend 5 hours a day devising some bullshit "system"

Because its an easy wager to win if you do the work. A deviation system can easily win 60% because the books must move the lines to account for public betting patterns. Do some research and you will see...

[chargers4222]

hey, original poster, what is your win to loss ratio lifetime? 1-4 around there? if you bet overs when two high scoring nfl teams play each other, you will lose 75% of the time. goddamn i cannot stand people on this board. i mean i guess it is because of people like you that i tend to win but i just dont get how you people live with yourselves. literally pick the opposite of every one of your picks and you will profit. trust me

[brahmabull117]

Because its an easy wager to win if you do the work. A deviation system can easily win 60% because the books must move the lines to account for public betting patterns. Do some research and you will see...

NFL total betting is easy with just being a smart football fan



scrap all the deviation systems crap

[powerhouse]

It's all just a crapshoot !!

[brahmabull117]

if you bet overs when two high scoring nfl teams play each other, you will lose 75% of the time

uhmm what now???



just off the top of my head in 2010 season


Eagles/Indy - 1-0 Over
Giants/Eagles - 1-1 on the Over
Pats/Colts - 1-0 Over
Eagles/Detroit - 1-0 Over
Eagles/Dallas - 1-0 Over
Eagles/Houston - 1-0 Over
Indy/Dallas - 1-0 Over
Patriots/Detroit - 1-0 Over


the top 5 teams in the NFL last season in scoring all had a positive record in Over/Under

the Pats/Eagles/Indy covered their overs at an incredible 69% clip (take away the eagles games without mike Vick and that percentage goes up to about 74%)

[thaman79]

Who gives a rats ass? Whatever works for the next man is what he should bet. Totals, sides, ml, props. Bet what you know and want. At the end of the day it's your money on the line. You have your opinion and I respect that. With all that said. It's all about beating the book. So do what you do. Cause believe me bro, I know guys in Vegas that kill at betting on totals. So again, whatever puts money in your pocket and not the book. Go with it. Good luck to all.

[brahmabull117]

Who gives a rats ass? Whatever works for the next man is what he should bet. Totals, sides, ml, props. Bet what you know and want. At the end of the day it's your money on the line. You have your opinion and I respect that. With all that said. It's all about beating the book. So do what you do. Cause believe me bro, I know guys in Vegas that kill at betting on totals. So again, whatever puts money in your pocket and not the book. Go with it. Good luck to all.

true true


this is a discussion forum though. To me, NBA total betting is arguably the worst and most unpredictable form of sports gambling there is



the fact that 2 run and gun high scoring teams with zero defense (golden state and phoenix) can play 4 games this year and ALL 4 games go UNDER the vegas line, is enough to turn me off total betting forever

[sweetjones55]

Brahmabull117, If totals are so hard to win and the totals are so sharp then why don't the books allow you to place huge bets on them as they do spreads? Shouldn't there be even higher limits on totals if they are sharper then spreads?

[chargers4222]

so you won a lot this nfl season?

[brahmabull117]

Brahmabull117, If totals are so hard to win and the totals are so sharp then why don't the books allow you to place huge bets on them as they do spreads? Shouldn't there be even higher limits on totals if they are sharper then spreads?

dunno, don't care

[JOHON8]

It's all about finding spots in totals, they can be the easiest bets sometimes. The catch is that they can be so easy that you go big on it and the suddenly out of nowhere you get buried.

[BernardMadoff]

true true


this is a discussion forum though. To me, NBA total betting is arguably the worst and most unpredictable form of sports gambling there is



the fact that 2 run and gun high scoring teams with zero defense (golden state and phoenix) can play 4 games this year and ALL 4 games go UNDER the vegas line, is enough to turn me off total betting forever

Thats your opinion though, just because youre not good at it doesnt mean others arnt. There are guys who specialize in totals, the same way you try to break games down they do totals the same.

[FindTheLock]

you're questioning the lines not the wager type. You said the suns and warriors went under 4 out of 4 times. Ever consider the book made the total for those games extremely high when these two played? A normal NBA total hovers around 185-200, if you see a total at 219 then automatically you should know there is a good chance for an under. It takes a bit more understanding of the game then to say, "oh two offensive teams are playing bet the over for free money" because lines makers adjust lines to steal from the simple minded folks like yourself.

[nickos86]

Or maybe you are considering total lines with the same in depth analysis as the sterotypical 'public' punter (close to none).

"These teams can score so lets bet the over!" - without considering anything else, including the actual number listed...

[ManBearPig]

Well I guess I'm an idiot cuz these are my favorite to play. Who would've thunk it.

[El Sol]

I don't believe in systems


I'm an instinctual bettor who relies on matchups, trends and gut instinct

this says it all, end of discussion

[coinflipper]

sounds like somebody got killed on totals this year

[THEGREAT30]

I am a idiot

[ShogunRua]

fail

this

[brahmabull117]

Or maybe you are considering total lines with the same in depth analysis as the sterotypical 'public' punter (close to none).

"These teams can score so lets bet the over!" - without considering anything else, including the actual number listed...

except when the Colts and Patriots play... and the line is ridiculously high


they still cover. That's the difference with NBA and NFL total betting. NFL total betting makes perfect sense and anybody with any intelligence can make bank



NBA betting is an absolute pain in the ass... and to me it's a crapshoot a lot of times because of variables like pace and possessions that can't always be accounted for



I mean for god's sake, you had the heat and the celtics play 2 games within 2 or 3 week stretch...1 game had 168 points and the other had 219


that's a 51 point difference based on nothing more than a huge difference in the pace. How the hell do you even begin to cap that?

[GAMBLOR777]

you have no idea what your talking about.

[Qtip]

Liking the Under tonight Chi/Ind