Are the books using this trick?

larry040681 · 02-08-11, 12:28 PM

yup.. I was tricked to bet on Chi - 2.5 and seeing them play in the 4th q makes me think and say what happen to my money..

Pensinger1 · 02-08-11, 12:34 PM

You just might be on to something here.......

ThingsFallApart · 02-08-11, 12:39 PM

I have definitely noticed a trend in the NBA on Saturdays and Mondays.

This happened to me way back when Memphis went into Charlotte and got blown out, then the next day I go 0-4 trying to avenge being "so stupid" the night before.

Tonight by this logic I think Atlanta is the play. -4 to a bad road team? In fact I think I'm going rather large with Atlanta.

t-bone · 02-08-11, 12:40 PM

in yesterday's case, the books knew they would get barreled in superbowl fvcks hammering favorites on monday. charlotte was an easy one. books cleaned up in nba yesterday.

nice write-up

vyomguy · 02-08-11, 12:49 PM

congrats...you have reached the next level in betting nba.

Deep_Rest · 02-08-11, 12:55 PM

I like your theory, but some "good teams" must be excluded from your list: LAL and BOS.

The volume of blind bettors of these teams would probably skew the lines against your theory. Even MIA might need to be excluded. I think your theory would work well with under-appreciated but still very good teams like CHI, OKC, and the Spurs. GL!

sweetjones55 · 02-08-11, 01:06 PM

Clips, Pacers, Grizz and Wolves are all on the road which is why they are getting big lines. It's completely different monster taking a home dog and a road dog. Bad teams can win/keep games close at home because they are comfortable. Bad teams also choke badly on the road and just don't play nearly as well.

rapidfire5 · 02-08-11, 01:19 PM

i was thinking the EXACT same thing when i saw the line this morning

baldur · 02-08-11, 01:26 PM

congrats...you have reached the next level in betting nba.

EBDOGGN · 02-08-11, 01:37 PM

Chicagos game last night was a pretty easy call considering portland beat the spurs at home a couple days ago. But I understand what your saying my best advice to you is grab 3 of those heavily favored home games 2night and tease em. You'll be fine. But taking those high spreads is ridiculous. Imo

JamalCrawford · 02-08-11, 01:54 PM

there was a day last week when all the home teams covered. I think today is gonna be one of those days

wikkidinsane · 02-08-11, 02:15 PM

It gets me pretty much all the time

politicin · 02-08-11, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by vyomguy

congrats...you have reached the next level in betting nba.

OP ... don't listen to this guy... he's a losing bettor

squid44 · 02-08-11, 02:23 PM

i like applying common sense to betting. sometimes its all you need to do- i like the theory you have and i'll be following/tailing some to see how it pans out! bol!

demens · 02-08-11, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by JamalCrawford

i noticed something recently with fishy lines. There's always nights when elite teams are favored by a small margin against crappy teams, and people get screwed because the underdog play out of their minds and win straight up or cover. like last nite in charlotte and new orleans and to some extent in portland. But the next day, they give huge lines to decent teams playing good teams like today with clips +9.5 and pacers +10.5 grizz +7 wolves +9. So the underdog upsets from the day before are fresh on our minds so we feel comfortable taking the points in these situations, and they ALWAYS seem to get blown out! follow me here? i've been duped by this trick so many times its crazy. Does anyone else notice this? btw, im betting all favs today.

If you used your brain to analyze each game you'd see that there are no trick games, people just make stupid assumptions based on biased views they have in their head.

If you looked at the Celtics record on b2b and their upcoming game schedule you'll understand this was not a good time to back them, there was no trick.

In the case of NO, they were favored by 9, that isn't a small line no matter how you define it. Not sure what was tricky in this case. They were playing without 2 starters and are 1-5 since their 10 game winning streak ended.

In the case of Portland, a the blazers are in no way a "crappy team" and Bulls while elite at home are very mediocre on the road.

As for todays lines, all these "decent" teams are on the road to the leagues top 10 teams (other then Houston). Nothing out of the ordinary.

So take the time to look at the games and understand the lines, understand the difference between home and away and look at what lines the teams in question typically get. And you'll see, there are no fixes, no conspiracies and no tricks.

Pensinger1 · 02-08-11, 04:06 PM

Hindsight is 20/20 right demens?

I would love to see u past plays instead of ripping people on their unsuccessful plays post-game. God ur a square.

demens · 02-08-11, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by Pensinger1

Hindsight is 20/20 right demens?

I would love to see u past plays instead of ripping people on their unsuccessful plays post-game. God ur a square.

Go find SKs thread on his picks from yesterday and you'll see that i said the exact same things about the games in question in that thread.

Its not about hindsight at all, its about not being stupid and understanding why things happen the way they do instead of calling them tricks.

BayArea888 · 02-08-11, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by demens

If you used your brain to analyze each game you'd see that there are no trick games, people just make stupid assumptions based on biased views they have in their head. If you looked at the Celtics record on b2b and their upcoming game schedule you'll understand this was not a good time to back them, there was no trick. In the case of NO, they were favored by 9, that isn't a small line no matter how you define it. Not sure what was tricky in this case. They were playing without 2 starters and are 1-5 since their 10 game winning streak ended. In the case of Portland, a the blazers are in no way a "crappy team" and Bulls while elite at home are very mediocre on the road. As for todays lines, all these "decent" teams are on the road to the leagues top 10 teams (other then Houston). Nothing out of the ordinary. So take the time to look at the games and understand the lines, understand the difference between home and away and look at what lines the teams in question typically get. And you'll see, there are no fixes, no conspiracies and no tricks.

man, i have been reading your posts for a while. you are SO annoying. all you do is complain and argue against EVERYONE...literally. you provide no help at all in making profitable plays. NOT ONCE have i seen a play, but we hear your b!tching constantly. when other posters try to make insightful contributions and might be catching on to something, you come in and ruin threads with your negative comments. you have problems, pal. i think the term narcissist is an understatement in your case.

take this into consideration: it's one thing to be annoying, but to be THIS annoying on the INTERNET? man, you are gifted...with a curse to the rest of society.

dimon · 02-08-11, 04:10 PM

home teams today way to go

nocap · 02-08-11, 04:10 PM

Orlando , MIA, spurs and okcity all may win ML..

BigDofBA · 02-08-11, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by JamalCrawford

i noticed something recently with fishy lines. There's always nights when elite teams are favored by a small margin against crappy teams, and people get screwed because the underdog play out of their minds and win straight up or cover. like last nite in charlotte and new orleans and to some extent in portland. But the next day, they give huge lines to decent teams playing good teams like today with clips +9.5 and pacers +10.5 grizz +7 wolves +9. So the underdog upsets from the day before are fresh on our minds so we feel comfortable taking the points in these situations, and they ALWAYS seem to get blown out! follow me here? i've been duped by this trick so many times its crazy. Does anyone else notice this? btw, im betting all favs today.

I've actually noticed the same thing for a few months now.

You'll see a crappy team +2 against a good team and they will win straight up. Then the next day a good team is like -10.5 and they win easily by 20.

demens · 02-08-11, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by BayArea888

man, i have been reading your posts for a while. you are SO annoying. all you do is complain and argue against EVERYONE...literally. you provide no help at all in making profitable plays. NOT ONCE have i seen a play, but we hear your b!tching constantly. when other posters try to make insightful contributions and might be catching on to something, you come in and ruin threads with your negative comments. you have problems, pal. i think the term narcissist is an understatement in your case.

take this into consideration: it's one thing to be annoying, but to be THIS annoying on the INTERNET? man, you are gifted...with a curse to the rest of society.

Thank you for your comments. I think you are stupid. Good day.

BayArea888 · 02-08-11, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by demens

Thank you for your comments. I think you are stupid. Good day.

i bet even your family hates you...i pity you. poor poor demens. you know deep down inside that what i said is right. poor poor pitiful demens...

widebody2 · 02-08-11, 04:37 PM

I'm actually with demens on this one. The books get things right for a reason. They take basically EVERYTHING into consideration when making their lines and have very close to 50% wins for the favs and the dogs. Their average spread is very close to the average pt diff of actual NBA games, if you eliminate blowout games skewing the pt diff. average. What this means is they know what they're doing. Thats why they win and that's why they make money. Keep in mind they will only win long term with 50% betting on each side. They are not trying to trick you into taking one side at first....they are actually trying to cap the game then the line moves from there with the influence of bettors choosing one side more than the other.

demens · 02-08-11, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by widebody2

I'm actually with demens on this one. The books get things right for a reason. They take basically EVERYTHING into consideration when making their lines and have very close to 50% wins for the favs and the dogs. Their average spread is very close to the average pt diff of actual NBA games, if you eliminate blowout games skewing the pt diff. average. What this means is they know what they're doing. Thats why they win and that's why they make money. Keep in mind they will only win long term with 50% betting on each side. They are not trying to trick you into taking one side at first....they are actually trying to cap the game then the line moves from there with the influence of bettors choosing one side more than the other.

Sometimes there are lines that stand out as strange. I wouldn't call them tricks though, they are just lines i personally dont understand. But they are rare.

These people in here think any time a half good team is a 3 point (or less) fav on the road to a bad team its a trap. There is like 3 threads about this or that game being a trap each night.

DeeWizzle · 02-08-11, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by nocap

Orlando , MIA, spurs and okcity all may win ML..

Sharp post

Adr3nalin3 Ru5h · 02-08-11, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by demens

Sometimes there are lines that stand out as strange. I wouldn't call them tricks though, they are just lines i personally dont understand. But they are rare.

These people in here think any time a half good team is a 3 point (or less) fav on the road to a bad team its a trap. There is like 3 threads about this or that game being a trap each night.

True statement

DemoralizdDreamr · 02-08-11, 05:02 PM

Demens wanna dish out your plays for tonight, lets see what u got

demens · 02-08-11, 05:03 PM

I dont "dish out plays" homeboy, sorry. Use your brain and make your own plays, i know its hard but you'll thank me in the end.

Pauulzcappin · 02-08-11, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by vyomguy

congrats...you have reached the next level in betting nba.

killawookie · 02-08-11, 05:18 PM

I agree, but you also need to understand that if the lesser team came out on top the day before and played 200% better than they usually do... they their next day game they are going to be tired and off mark

bullshooter · 02-08-11, 05:18 PM

Fishy

Originally posted by JamalCrawford

i noticed something recently with fishy lines. There's always nights when elite teams are favored by a small margin against crappy teams, and people get screwed because the underdog play out of their minds and win straight up or cover. like last nite in charlotte and new orleans and to some extent in portland. But the next day, they give huge lines to decent teams playing good teams like today with clips +9.5 and pacers +10.5 grizz +7 wolves +9. So the underdog upsets from the day before are fresh on our minds so we feel comfortable taking the points in these situations, and they ALWAYS seem to get blown out! follow me here? i've been duped by this trick so many times its crazy. Does anyone else notice this? btw, im betting all favs today.

I agree completely. I think the books want you to see the lines as fishy or confusing.
You got me to thinking about something i noticed and have been watching. I will give two examples below.

Super Bowl Sunday Nba
Orlando @ Boston / Boston wins and covers the line. Two days prior Boston was favored at home and lost to Dallas.
Prior week Boston @ Lakers / Boston beats Lakers in LA. Two days prior Lakers lose at home to Sac Kings.
What i have noticed is prior to a big TV game these teams lose or either don't cover the lines.

BernardMadoff · 02-08-11, 05:33 PM

I see nothing wrong with the lines the last two nights, its because of home court and the others you speak of its because their on the road.

Gee · 02-08-11, 05:40 PM

Is demens a winning gambler?

Yes +500
no -100000

Talks a good game and makes some good points but it's the bitterness that confirms something is very wrong with him - either as a person or a gambler. My money is on the latter :P