Curious Season Thread

[spongerat]

I dunno about fading the clippers even on the road, griffin has been heating up lately. Also playing the celtics, Garnett is out still so they lack the big man post and heart of the team. Good luck though

[spongerat]

what book did you find to take 150k on the utah moneyline? i'd be interested in playing there

[curious]

Request to all posters

Anyone who knows me knows that normally I am a bit, well let's just say, feisty. So normally if someone posted 'advice' to me on how to play money lines by only playing spreads, or only playing money lines above a certain line, or some other nonsense, I would say something like "I will hunt you down and cut you into little bitty pieces crackhead". But, I am trying to be nice, I don't really know how to do that so sometimes I have to guess.

So, I am going to ask this nicely. This is a MONEY LINE thread. I have 4 years of experience killing the books in NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, and MLB. By killing I don't mean I was a 55% winner. I mean FREAKING MURDERING the books. The NBA thread has hit >85% 3 years in a row. We are struggling a bit this year but the year is just starting. I don't play NBA until the season is 25% over. And, I quit posting my strongest plays, Quarter bets on the money line, because too many people cannot find a place where they can place those bets.

Now, one of the things that I do for a part of my living is that I am a mathematician. So, I know the math behind spreads and money lines. In my opinion, you are MUCH better off playing the money line. I play spreads plus the points on dogs because a lot of the people who read this thread feel a lot better with these and I don't mind them. BUT, I do not and WILL NOT play favs on the spread. If you do that you are an idiot.

So, please do not come in here and tell me that playing money lines is retarded, or not the best way, or whatever. If you knew anything about math you would not say that. So, if you say that you are just showing that you are not competent in math.

I am trying to be nice about this.

Now, once in a while I see a spread that I know is a great bet and I will take it. We had the Lakers for 10 units on the spread vs the Cavaliers the other day. Shoot we should have put 100 units on that play.

I am very willing to listen to advice like "hey crackhead, take the Lakers on the spread instead of the money line because ...." and actually give us real analysis that we can estimate and not just some nonsense. But, I don't want to listen to stupidity about how spreads are the holy grail and money lines are retarded.

Anyway, I will stay much more sane (I am not sane) if you don't rile me up by saying stupid things like spreads are much better, blah blah blah.

[curious]

what book did you find to take 150k on the utah moneyline? i'd be interested in playing there

I don't answer questions like this and only an idiot would put that size bet at one place. I have already said that bets beyond a certain size have to be spread around.

[curious]

I dunno about fading the clippers even on the road, griffin has been heating up lately. Also playing the celtics, Garnett is out still so they lack the big man post and heart of the team. Good luck though

Clippers win 21% of their plays on the road. Golden State wins 56% of their home plays.

I'll look at latest streak for both teams and see if we need to adjust.

I never look at injuries, I figure the book makers can adjust the line for the injury, which they do.

[curious]

My bet sizes

I now post my bet sizes in units not dollars. I will not respond to posts where someone is trying to guess the dollar size of one of my plays. I used to post my plays in $$ amounts but I got too much BS from idiots who wanted to argue with me or accuse me of lying. I don't need the nonsense. I left SBR before for about a year because I got tired of the stupidity. I am trying to be cool and not let the idiots get to me instead of tracking them down and creating a new unsolved mysteries TV show.

Some people have found it necessary to post my plays in terms of $$. Please stop doing that if you are doing it and please ignore that if you are reading it.

[spongerat]

ok i guess it was a dumb question, i'm just always on the lookout for more books I can spread big bets around on the ML. I like when you were posting in M&Ms, maybe you can post in little candy hearts since valentines day is coming up!

Do you ever consider b2b, first home games, and lookahead spots?

[curious]

I dunno about fading the clippers even on the road, griffin has been heating up lately. Also playing the celtics, Garnett is out still so they lack the big man post and heart of the team. Good luck though

Charlotte is 4-0 since their last loss streak, they beat:
Minnesota
Washington
Memphis
Cleveland

All of these teams blow.

Is something going on with Charlotte other than they have been beating scrub teams?

[curious]

ok i guess it was a dumb question, i'm just always on the lookout for more books I can spread big bets around on the ML. I like when you were posting in M&Ms, maybe you can post in little candy hearts since valentines day is coming up!

Do you ever consider b2b, first home games, and lookahead spots?

Nope.

If you have information that matters to us post it and we will consider it. For example if you said that Boston always loses first home games and we were laying some big line like -450 on Boston in a first home game then we might consider that. I have never looked at things like that but I am not saying that I wouldn't look at it. I am just skeptical that such things matter. But, if you can show us proof we will look at it.

[spongerat]

they also beat chicago 2 days ago

[spongerat]

at antoher forum we've been tracking the first game back from the road trip of 4 or more games for the past few years with success. The first game back the books factor in home court advantage when math has shown it doesn't really kick in until they are home for more than one game so i often fade those teams or avoid betting them

[caracalla]

Because one of the SBR employees hates me and he screws with me every chance he gets. He took my PM function away.

No problem.
Check your blog and last comment.
Bye

[curious]

i'm just always on the lookout for more books I can spread big bets around on the ML.

I am not saying that I do this but I have read that some people use locals, associates in Vegas, and multiple internet accounts in order to spread their play around. Also to get the best lines. I don't usually worry about shopping lines, if I like a line I like it. IF it moves I don't much care. But, if one of these other people is playing a total and some crackhead on line place has the total for 3 points less than most other places and one of these other people are on the OVER then I am sure that they are going to jump all over that. Or so I have read.

Sometimes opening lines in Vegas are pretty surprising compared to the on line places.

Also, locals have to move their lines to reflect bets they have already taken in. So, sometimes your local can be way off, but will be happy to get the play. Let's say that one of these people I am talking about likes a dog, and the local has taken big action on the fav, they will have moved the dog way up in order to even out their action, or so I have heard from one of the people I have read about.

[spongerat]

celtics last game they won without garnett but made 12 3pters which is above expectation. I just dont' like playing them without garnett against a team with momentum in the mid season when teams get lethargic and they are ahead by 7 games and don't really need a win that badly. Bostons 30th in rebounds and probably worse without garnett, and 1st in points allowed. With that being said Boston will probably win still, depends how their bench plays with all the newbies getting lots of minutes, and if Shaq doesn't get too tired.

[curious]

they also beat chicago 2 days ago

Chicago is .44 on the road. I usually either don't play Chicago on the road or play them small.

[curious]

at antoher forum we've been tracking the first game back from the road trip of 4 or more games for the past few years with success. The first game back the books factor in home court advantage when math has shown it doesn't really kick in until they are home for more than one game so i often fade those teams or avoid betting them

Can you share some stats on this with us?

[spongerat]

i'll probably get erased for sharing this here, but you've provided some good info so here it goes


The overall ATS figures for the last 7 seasons are as follows -

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip - 246-257-15 .......... -11

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 206-293-11 ......... -87


The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 47.5% vs 40.4% for the 2nd game.


The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS: they split results over the 2 games (splits incl a push result married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 7 seasons)
Win both ......... 24.72%
Lose both ........ 34.08%
Split results ..... 41.20%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 7 seasons)
Win both ......... 22.00%
Lose both ........ 34.85%
Split results ..... 43.15%


While the above figures betray the fact that split results are most prevalent for teams off these lengthy road trips, how they perform in the 1st game is important to note: Over the last 4 seasons (as far back as I can go for obtainable results)....

- Teams winning their 1st game back have gone on to win their 2nd game back at a 48.4% ATS rate

- Teams losing their 1st game back have gone on to win their 2nd game back at only a 29.0% ATS rate

theres way more stats but this is the gist of the analysis

[caracalla]

I bet the way I do because that is what works the best. saying that you never bet less than -170 is a HORRIBLE way to bet. I can prove that with real numbers.

If your system is positive, better for you.
In my strategy betting on -175, -180, -185 etc is horrible (MLB), in others sports I bet only ATS.
Different strategies, different rules.
I love math too, very very much, and I studied 10 years USA sports; I have created 10 years result/odd/teams etc database, so mine are real numbers too.

Probably we both are right, surely, but different strategy.

I have wife and 3 children, and I would never bet 3000 to win 100, even if 110% sure.
Im my situation, issues of accountability and ethics.

Nevertheless keep up the good work; I didn't want to get you just a bit nervous, only give you UDOG new site.

Ciao

[curious]

If your system is positive, better for you.
In my strategy betting on -175, -180, -185 etc is horrible (MLB), in others sports I bet only ATS.
Different strategies, different rules.
I love math too, very very much, and I studied 10 years USA sports; I have created 10 years result/odd/teams etc database, so mine are real numbers too.

Probably we both are right, surely, but different strategy.

I have wife and 3 children, and I would never bet 3000 to win 100, even if 110% sure.
Im my situation, issues of accountability and ethics.

Nevertheless keep up the good work; I didn't want to get you just a bit nervous, only give you UDOG new site.

Ciao

Nervous? I'm not sure what would make me nervous. Oh, I know, my hot young wife seeing me talking to another woman. That would make me VERY nervous.

[curious]

- Teams losing their 1st game back have gone on to win their 2nd game back at only a 29.0% ATS rate

When a team is a fav I only care about straight up results, I don't care about the spread. For dogs I do care about the spread.

SOOOOO, it looks like taking the opponent ATS in games where a team is back after a 4 (more than 4?) game road trip is easy money.

HMMMM.

Are there very many games that match this stat? I ask this because I don't lose very many big favs and this stat would suggest that I would lose a lot more big favs.

[curious]

Fri Jan 14 Games

Toronto -190 ML 5.7 to win 3 units
Philly -180 ML 5.4 to win 3 units
Indiana -102 ML 1.02 to win 1 units
Golden State -160 7.2 to win 4.5 units
Boston -450 25 to win 6 units
New York -440 22 to win 5 units
Utah -3000 150 to win 5 units
Lakers -1600 96 to win 6 units

If you fainted when you read the plays on Utah and the Lakers you can try them ATS but ATS on these big numbers is 10-11 this year. SU on these big numbers is 20-1 this year.

Granted the Cavaliers have been awful lately, so -14 is probably okay with them. New Jersey looks like they have fallen completely apart lately.

Who wants to bet me 100 SBR points that some crackhead who has no informative posts comes in this thread and talks smack to me because I am laying these big numbers?

bumpity bump bump bump ::

[curious]

Fri Jan 14

1st Q and 1st H

1st Q
Philly -1.5 -110 2.2 to win 2
Boston -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Lakers -3 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

1st H
Indiana +1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
New York -4 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Boston -4 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Utah -7 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Lakers -7 -110 2.2 to win 2

[VegasPlayer]

The quarter numbers for the NBA Pacific are done. I'm working on the Northwest next.

[VegasPlayer]

FYI - Portland Is 23-14-2 1st qtr this year
Phoenix is 21-12-4 in the 4th qtr this year
Besides the Lakers, these are the only 2 that stand out in this division.
Need to expand this to Half numbers also.

[manicart]

1st Q and 1st H

1st Q
Philly -1.5 -110 2.2 to win 2
Boston -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Lakers -3 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

1st H
Indiana +1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
New York -4 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Boston -4 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Utah -7 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Lakers -7 -110 2.2 to win 2

I like Golden State 1H -2 and Game

GL Man

[raiders510]

curious good luck tonight brother

[jsmithj88]

thinking about doing a ML parlay for the nite
lakers, jazz are a given for me
but the odds are really poor, wat would u suggest for a 3rd team?
i got my eye on knicks or spurs.....

[Romanov]

thanks curious

[curious]

thinking about doing a ML parlay for the nite
lakers, jazz are a given for me
but the odds are really poor, wat would u suggest for a 3rd team?
i got my eye on knicks or spurs.....

You can tell how much I like a play by the number of units in the to win spot in the bet. Plays that are at the same number are tied. So, in terms of how much I like them Lakers and Boston are tied for first at 6 units, New York and Utah are tied for third at 5 units, Golden State is fifth at 4.5 units, Toronto and Philly are tied at sixth at 3 units, Indiana is eighth at 1 unit.

Some people are worried about Boston. Start with the Lakers and move down the list and if you want to leave Boston out skip to the next play.

Nicks and Spurs look good if you have Lakers and/or Boston in there already.

Lakers -1600 96 to win 6 units
Boston -450 25 to win 6 units
New York -440 22 to win 5 units
Utah -3000 150 to win 5 units
Golden State -160 7.2 to win 4.5 units
Toronto -190 ML 5.7 to win 3 units
Philly -180 ML 5.4 to win 3 units
Indiana -102 ML 1.02 to win 1 unit

[curious]

Missing some NBA games

Crap, I am missing some NBA games, let me cap them and see what we get.

[curious]

Missing NBA games...Fri Jan 14

I didn't cap these real thoroughly....so don't go crazy. I REALLY like this Dallas play. Notice the ML play at 1 with the spread play at 2 in order to cover the risk on the money line.

Dallas +10 ML -110 2.2 to win 2
Dallas +480 1 to win 4.8

Houston -125 1.25 to win 1

Phoenix +110 1 to win 1.1

[curious]

1st Quarter
Houston -1 -110 2.2 to win 2

1st Half
Houston -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

[curious]

thinking about doing a ML parlay for the nite
lakers, jazz are a given for me
but the odds are really poor, wat would u suggest for a 3rd team?
i got my eye on knicks or spurs.....

I was reading the wrong line, do NOT take the Spurs under any circumstances.

Lakers -1600 96 to win 6 units
Boston -450 25 to win 6 units
New York -440 22 to win 5 units
Utah -3000 150 to win 5 units
Golden State -160 7.2 to win 4.5 units
Toronto -190 ML 5.7 to win 3 units
Philly -180 ML 5.4 to win 3 units
Indiana -102 ML 1.02 to win 1 unit

I would put the parlay picks in the parlay in this order
Lakers, Boston, New York, Utah

I wouldn't take any of the plays below Utah

[gocan2010]

good stuff mate. tell me do u mk mony betting these high odds games. if so how. u have to hit over 90% betting -300 and arond. gl

[curious]

good stuff mate. tell me do u mk mony betting these high odds games. if so how. u have to hit over 90% betting -300 and arond. gl

Do I make money? Are you ******* with me? No I do this for the fun of it. Get the **** out of my thread asshole.