Curious Season Thread

[PistolPete13]

I get qtr lines at betus.com i can't always get 2nd and 4th qtr lines though. that's why i came up with the idea for the 3rd qtr. haven't been able to check with underdogs getting pts. Been at the poker room last 3 nights.

Are you taking dogs + the points and favs money line?

Is there a place that "average" posters can make the 3rd Q plays? I get a lot of complaints for some of my strategies from "average" posters that they cannot find a book that will let them do that.

If we can find some places that most people can find I will start placing and tracking these plays. I think the Q and H plays are much stronger than games.

[VegasPlayer]

Are you taking dogs + the points and favs money line?

Is there a place that "average" posters can make the 3rd Q plays? I get a lot of complaints for some of my strategies from "average" posters that they cannot find a book that will let them do that.

If we can find some places that most people can find I will start placing and tracking these plays. I think the Q and H plays are much stronger than games.

5D has all 4 quarter lines posted before Tip. ML & Spread.

[MartR]

My bookie has set oklahoma and orlando as equals and a +1,5 to denver only. So I guess +1,5 to Miami seems good enough.

[VegasPlayer]

OK, I ran the quarter numbers on the Lakers. Here is a sample of what we can find out on a spreadsheet. As I get more familiar with manipulating the data, I can probably write some macros to make the process quicker. Problem is keeping the data current. The data can be cut just about any way one wishes to see it, just have to plug in the right formulas.

Lakers are 27-10-2 in 1st Qtrs
Lakers are 14-11-2 In the 2nd quarter winning the 1st Qtr
Lakers are 7-5-0 In the 2nd quarter losing the 1st Qtr

Data does not include last nights game and does not include spreads.
I don't play spreads unless I'm hedging, so this would work for me.

The read is obvious here. Lakers start fast, then throttle it down somewhat. 1st qtr hit rate is 69.2% and still over 50% in the 2nd qtr either way. Don't know how this relates to the ML, but it has piqued my interest.

[curious]

OK, I ran the quarter numbers on the Lakers. Here is a sample of what we can find out on a spreadsheet. As I get more familiar with manipulating the data, I can probably write some macros to make the process quicker. Problem is keeping the data current. The data can be cut just about any way one wishes to see it, just have to plug in the right formulas.

Lakers are 27-10-2 in 1st Qtrs
Lakers are 14-11-2 In the 2nd quarter winning the 1st Qtr
Lakers are 7-5-0 In the 2nd quarter losing the 1st Qtr

Data does not include last nights game and does not include spreads.
I don't play spreads unless I'm hedging, so this would work for me.

The read is obvious here. Lakers start fast, then throttle it down somewhat. 1st qtr hit rate is 69.2% and still over 50% in the 2nd qtr either way. Don't know how this relates to the ML, but it has piqued my interest.

Here is the thing with Quarters. The books do not CAP the quarters based on the teams quarter record. They make the line for the quarter in a ratio to the line for the game. WOW. So, you can find exploitable edges. I think using the money line is best, but spreads will work, you just have to handicap the quarter in more detail.

We should pursue this.

[curious]

Can I find Nuggets at +4??

No, I jump on the lines the moment that they are posted. If the line gets better then I add to the play later on. If the line gets a lot worse then I take the dog + the points if I am on the fav.

The Nuggets line moved away from you since the line opened.

[curious]

Jan 13 quarter and half plays

1st Q
Minnesota -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Denver +1 -110 2.2 to win 2

1st H
Minnesota -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

[Romanov]

1st Q Minnesota -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2 Denver +1 -110 2.2 to win 2 1st H Minnesota -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

Are these plays based on their records in the 1st quarter in the past?

[VegasPlayer]

Here is the thing with Quarters. The books do not CAP the quarters based on the teams quarter record. They make the line for the quarter in a ratio to the line for the game. WOW. So, you can find exploitable edges. I think using the money line is best, but spreads will work, you just have to handicap the quarter in more detail.

We should pursue this.

I agree. I'm gonna run the queries on the Pacific division and then spreadsheet the stuff and see what shows up. Tonight is my Friday in the working world, so I should be able to get alot done over the weekend. Hope you cash tonight.

[curious]

Are these plays based on their records in the 1st quarter in the past?

No, they are based on each teams' average total vs their opponent in that quarter, a number from +10 to -10 (more or less). I am looking for teams which have high + numbers vs teams that have low - numbers for the Quarter or the Half.

We are not crunching the team play per quarter for all teams yet.

[curious]

Thursday, Jan 13

Reposting the plays because I could not find them earlier. LOL

OKC +1 +1.1 5 to win 5.5 units
Nuggets +4 -110 5.5 to win 5 units
Minnesota -220 8.8 to win 4

Also have OKC and Nuggets on the money line risking 1 unit each.

[curious]

Thursday, Jan 13 Totals

Miami vs Denver Game Total OVER 204 -110 2.2 to win 2
Orlando vs Oklahoma City Game Total UNDER 203 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Washington vs Minnesota Game Total UNDER 208 -110 2.2 to win 2

I got these from Laker_crazy. I don't know how to cap totals.

[curious]

Fri Jan 14

These are Friday, Jan 14 plays.

Play dogs + the points and favs on the moneyline.
Toronto 3 units
Philly 3 units
Indiana 1 unit
New York 5 units
Boston 6 units
Utah 5 units
Golden State 4.5 units
Lakers 6 units

[curious]

Interesting play possibility

We are on Nuggets +4. If you waited you lost, when you snooze you loose.

Now the Heat are +1 1/2. Maybe we should take the Heat for a small play? LOL

[curious]

Why do I like this song so much?

I heard this band for the first time the other day. I keep listening to this song. Can't figure out if the song is really good or if it is just the novelty.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrcxoYkYO4E&feature=related

"While your lips are still red" by Nightwish

[Dialysis1]

Great picks yesterday, Curious

Cashed 'em all, except the Orl/Ok under 203 (I took the over). Thanks!

Not excited about the band, tho...

[xxbadazxx]

That band really sucks, love your posts but i dont get it

[curious]

1st q
minnesota -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2 win +2
denver +1 -110 2.2 to win 2 win +2

1st h
minnesota -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2 win +2

3-0 +6

[curious]

reposting the plays because i could not find them earlier. Lol

okc +1 +1.1 5 to win 5.5 units win +5.5
nuggets +4 -110 5.5 to win 5 units win +5
minnesota -220 8.8 to win 4 win +4

also have okc and nuggets on the money line risking 1 unit each.

Okc +110 1 to win 1.1 units win +1.1
nuggets +160 1 to win 1.6 win +1.6

3-0 +17.1

[curious]

miami vs denver game total over 204 -110 2.2 to win 2 win +2
orlando vs oklahoma city game total under 203 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2 loss -2.2
washington vs minnesota game total under 208 -110 2.2 to win 2 win +2

i got these from laker_crazy. I don't know how to cap totals.

2-1 +1.8

[curious]

Thur Jan 13 Recap 8-1 +24.9

8-1 +24.9

Great night last night.

Hey, those crackheads that are always talking smack to me because I play the way I do, where are they when we win big?

[curious]

Friday Jan 14 Games

Toronto -190 ML 5.7 to win 3 units
Philly -180 ML 5.4 to win 3 units
Indiana -102 ML 1.02 to win 1 units
Golden State -160 7.2 to win 4.5 units
Boston -450 25 to win 6 units
New York -440 22 to win 5 units
Utah -3000 150 to win 5 units
Lakers -1600 96 to win 6 units

If you fainted when you read the plays on Utah and the Lakers you can try them ATS but ATS on these big numbers is 10-11 this year. SU on these big numbers is 20-1 this year.

Granted the Cavaliers have been awful lately, so -14 is probably okay with them. New Jersey looks like they have fallen completely apart lately.

Who wants to bet me 100 SBR points that some crackhead who has no informative posts comes in this thread and talks smack to me because I am laying these big numbers?

[curious]

See if you like this song

I LOVE This song, I love playing it for my young hot wife. LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKX8v46Z11E&feature=related

Everyone hated the last song, see if you like this one, and see if your wife likes it when you sing it to her. LOL

[Dialysis1]

I LOVE This song, I love playing it for my young hot wife. LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKX8v46Z11E&feature=related

Everyone hated the last song, see if you like this one, and see if your wife likes it when you sing it to her. LOL

Now THAT'S more like it!

[LolsMcwinsey]

laying all that juice makes me LOL. i hope you don't do that for baseball.

[caracalla]

Hey, curious, I found where UDOG is posting now. Mauisportsinsider KO.
But your PM disabled: why?

[caracalla]

8-1 +24.9

Great night last night.

Hey, those crackheads that are always talking smack to me because I play the way I do, where are they when we win big?

I don't like the way you bet (today -3000!!; I never less than -170) but I always respected your analysis, studies and ideas.

[Romanov]

I don't like the way you bet (today -3000!!; I never less than -170) but I always respected your analysis, studies and ideas.

If I could, I would bet everything I own on the Jazz -3000 tonight

[timmyboy34243]

1st Q
Minnesota -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Denver +1 -110 2.2 to win 2

1st H
Minnesota -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

thanks for the play, used your 1st inning formula from the daba thread to have a pretty good score on the two 1st quater plays.....

[curious]

laying all that juice makes me LOL. i hope you don't do that for baseball.

I will put my record in any sport (that I actively play) against yours anytime and I will bet you any amount that I will be the one going LOL.

In baseball I usually don't go beyond -170, but there are some pitchers and some teams that I don't care what the line is. And there are other teams that I would never go beyond -150. You have to analyze the stats. Rules like this are fairly good general guidelines but are not good predictive rules.

[curious]

Oh, I forgot to clarify, when I say record I mean actual money won lost, because all these spread experts complain that even if my record is 100-1, that doesn't mean anything because I use money lines.

[curious]

Hey, curious, I found where UDOG is posting now. Mauisportsinsider KO.
But your PM disabled: why?

Because one of the SBR employees hates me and he screws with me every chance he gets. He took my PM function away.

[curious]

I don't like the way you bet (today -3000!!; I never less than -170) but I always respected your analysis, studies and ideas.

I bet the way I do because that is what works the best. saying that you never bet less than -170 is a HORRIBLE way to bet. I can prove that with real numbers.

[curious]

If I could, I would bet everything I own on the Jazz -3000 tonight

A parlay with the Lakers wouldn't be bad, I think that will cost -1000. So, you win 1 for every 10 that you lay.

[curious]

thanks for the play, used your 1st inning formula from the daba thread to have a pretty good score on the two 1st quater plays.....

I am glad that you are having good success. If I get time to do the first Q and first H plays today I will.

I like these much better on the money line but a lot of people have a hard time getting them.

I also like the live plays where you take the 2nd Q at the end of the 1st Q and the 4th Q at the end of the 3rd Q but a lot of people cannot find those bets.

We are working on a prediction model for those bets that I believe is going to be killer.