Curious Season Thread

[curious]

Golden State line available now

Golden State -150 1.5 to win 1

[xxbadazxx]

gl and merry x mas

[EasyHustlin]

He's back! Merry christmas you crackhead

[eddie0vedder]

where do you get lines that allow you to bet the later quarters? I do bookmaker and bet phoenix but the nba progression lines are aweful

i have looked at many sites today in-play and no one offers ML on quarters?

[EasyHustlin]

i have looked at many sites today in-play and no one offers ML on quarters?

Try Bet365

[xxbadazxx]

Goden state cashes........hell yea!!!

[curious]

Games

OKC -290 ML 2.9 to win 1 Win +1
Lakers -140 ML 1.4 to win 1 Loss -1.4
Boston +2 -110 1.1 to win 1 Loss -1.1
Chicago +1 1/2 -110 1.1 to win 1 Loss -1.1
Golden State -150 ML 1.5 to win 1 Win +1

All of these are risking 1 on dogs, to win 1 on favs. Note, some of the Q plays use a chase until they win. IF a 2Q play loses and it is listed for the 3Q, bet the 3Q 2x the 2Q, if the 4Q loses then bet the 4Q 2x the 3Q (which will be 4x the 2Q).

1Q
Lakers Loss
OKC Loss

2Q
Loser of the Boston/Orlando 1Q (keep playing this team until they win a Q) Loss
Loser of the Chicago/NY Nicks 1Q (do not play this after this Q) Win
Loser of the Miami/Lakers 1Q Loss
Loser of the Denver/OKC 1Q Win
Golden State Win

3Q
NY Nicks Win
Miami Win
OKC Win
IF Boston or Orlando lost both the 1Q and 2Q take them in the 3Q Win
IF Portland or Golden State lost both the 1Q and 2Q take them in the 3Q No Play

4Q
Chicago Loss
IF any team in any of the remaining games lost all 3 Q so far, take them in the 4Q Lakers Loss

1H
Lakers Loss
OKC Loss

2H
Miami Win
OKC Win

Wow, all of this and went 11-11. LOL Lost a few $$ OH well. Tomorrow is another day.

[curious]

Sunday Dec 26

I had a GREAT Christmas. MERRY CHRISTMAS everyone. I'm not a Christian but I LOVE Christmas. Ho ho ho.

Yesterday we went 11-11. LOL Lost a few $$. Very weird games yesterday.
Games
Clippers PK -110 1.1 to win 1
Cleveland ML -130 1.3 to win 1
Detroit +5 -110 1.1 to win 1
New Orleans -180 1.8 to win 1
Indiana -200 2 to win 1
Denver -180 1.8 to win 1

(Play all of these risking 1 unit on + odds, laying to win 1 unit on - odds, play spreads on dogs and ML on favs, do NOT play spreads on favs)

(If any of these San Antonio plays lose then double up on the next Q)
1st Q
Detroit
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it)
Denver

2nd Q
Cleveland
Indiana
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it)

3rd Q
Clippers
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it)
Denver

4Q
New Orleans
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it)

1H
Cleveland
New Orleans
Indiana
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it)
Denver

2H
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it)
Denver

Chase (I am listing these separately because some people don't play them) Play dogs + the points, play favs on the ML, if you cannot get favs on the money line then don't play them. If you can get in game play you have to look at each play just before the Q starts to see if the team is a dog or fav, a team can switch from the game dog/fav to be the opposite for a given Q.

2Q
Loser of Phoenix/Clippers 1st Q
Loser of Chicago/Detroit 1st Q
Loser of Atlanta/New Orleans 1st Q
Loser of Philly/Denver 1st Q

3Q
IF Minnesota/Cleveland lost both Q in 1st H, take that team
IF Chicago/Detroit lost both Q in 1st H, take that team
IF Atlanta/New Orleans lost both Q in 1st H, take that team
IF Memphis/Indiana lost both Q in 1st H, take that team

IF any team other than Atlanta or Washington lost all previous three Q then take that team.

[curious]

Correction to previous thread

This statement:
"IF any team other than Atlanta or Washington lost all previous three Q then take that team."

should have the title of 4Q directly above it. This strategy is for the 4th Quarter. Not the 3rd Quarter.

[Goat Milk]

Suns are the play

[curious]

Suns are the play

Perhaps, I viewed that game as too close to call and took the home team. Thought about staying away altogether. But you haven't been wrong yet.

[gtboy]

which online book offer ml on 1/4s and 1/2s. i use BM but only offer spread on these lines. thanks.

[curious]

which online book offer ml on 1/4s and 1/2s. i use BM but only offer spread on these lines. thanks.

Research the books and find the answer. It isn't that difficult.

[curious]

2-1 so far +1 unit LET'S GOOOOOOOO

[pattymayo]

I like Detroit tonight also good luck to us

[curious]

I had a GREAT Christmas. MERRY CHRISTMAS everyone. I'm not a Christian but I LOVE Christmas. Ho ho ho.

Yesterday we went 11-11. LOL Lost a few $$. Very weird games yesterday.
Games
Clippers PK -110 1.1 to win 1 Win +1
Cleveland ML -130 1.3 to win 1 Loss -1.3
Detroit +5 -110 1.1 to win 1 Win +1
New Orleans -180 1.8 to win 1 Win +1
Indiana -200 2 to win 1
Denver -180 1.8 to win 1

(Play all of these risking 1 unit on + odds, laying to win 1 unit on - odds, play spreads on dogs and ML on favs, do NOT play spreads on favs)

(If any of these San Antonio plays lose then double up on the next Q)
1st Q
Detroit Loss
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it) Win
Denver Win

2nd Q
Cleveland Loss
Indiana Win
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it) Win

3rd Q
Clippers Loss
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it) Win
Denver

4Q
New Orleans
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it) Loss

1H
Cleveland Loss
New Orleans Loss
Indiana Loss
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it) Win
Denver Win

2H
San Antonio (take this on the ML or don't play it) Win
Denver

Chase (I am listing these separately because some people don't play them) Play dogs + the points, play favs on the ML, if you cannot get favs on the money line then don't play them. If you can get in game play you have to look at each play just before the Q starts to see if the team is a dog or fav, a team can switch from the game dog/fav to be the opposite for a given Q.

2Q
Loser of Phoenix/Clippers 1st Q Win
Loser of Chicago/Detroit 1st Q Win
Loser of Atlanta/New Orleans 1st Q Loss
Loser of Philly/Denver 1st Q Win

3Q
IF Minnesota/Cleveland lost both Q in 1st H, take that team
IF Chicago/Detroit lost both Q in 1st H, take that team
IF Atlanta/New Orleans lost both Q in 1st H, take that team Win
IF Memphis/Indiana lost both Q in 1st H, take that team

4Q
IF any team other than Atlanta or Washington lost all previous three Q then take that team.

15-9 so far with a few still pending

[curious]

I like Detroit tonight also good luck to us

I hope that you had these crackheads on the spread and not the ML. I almost always take the ML but I took Detroit +5. Winner Winner.

[BoagRettor]

Curious, do you ever use sportsdatabase.com?

[curious]

Curious, do you ever use sportsdatabase.com?

constantly

[EasyHustlin]

Curious what site do you get winning percentages for each team broken down by quarter? All I've been able to find on teamrankings.com is a point differential by quarter... and I don't really have the motivation to run 1000 queries on sportsdatabase to get records for each team (not to mention update the damn things throughout the season!)

[curious]

Curious what site do you get winning percentages for each team broken down by quarter? All I've been able to find on teamrankings.com is a point differential by quarter... and I don't really have the motivation to run 1000 queries on sportsdatabase to get records for each team (not to mention update the damn things throughout the season!)

I don't get them.

I look at NBA Team Average XXX Quarter Margin for all Quarters for the home team and the away team. If the difference for a given Quarter is significant then I go with the better team. It probably would be better to look at wins/losses by Quarter but I have not found an easy way to do that.

[curious]

well, this is bad, ended up 17-12, pretty much broke even. ARRRRGGGGHHHHHHHH

I think I will go kill myself now.

[EasyHustlin]

Alright here are the winning %s for each team. Keep in mind these are only for the first quarter. Anything more than that is too much work. I made it so anyone can edit the spreadsheet, if you do please repost it so the rest of us know it's been updated. I think having these will be helpful. Curious I already have a computer program written that uses a filter similar to the one you came up with in Daba's thread this summer. Basically it takes in the winning percentages for each team, comes up with an "Average" of sorts and multiplies by the line. If the final # is > a certain baseline (which I will need to figure out based on what works best), then the program spits it out as a play. I'll be using that and posting plays on my sbr spreadsheet.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=t1S7bOTzvpFVV4O0M8FhzIg&hl=en#gid=0

[texhooper]

Okay, so I say that Berlin sucks. I have several versions of the song Sex (I'm A), tell me which is best.

Berlin http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30wk9...eature=related
(UGH, I want to die after listening to this version)

Lovage http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4joDAJQA30
(LOVE IT)

Peaches http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFImQ...eature=related

Zombie Girl http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nilQw...eature=related

My vote is for the Zombie Girl version. what say you?

dude i listened to all these the other night when i posted and berlin wins. i don't know if their entire body of work blows (i mean, take my breath away, what would top gun have been without that song ) but the berlin version is the best. easily.

[curious]

dude i listened to all these the other night when i posted and berlin wins. i don't know if their entire body of work blows (i mean, take my breath away, what would top gun have been without that song ) but the berlin version is the best. easily.

No way, the Zombie Girl version blows it away.

[curious]

Alright here are the winning %s for each team. Keep in mind these are only for the first quarter. Anything more than that is too much work. I made it so anyone can edit the spreadsheet, if you do please repost it so the rest of us know it's been updated. I think having these will be helpful. Curious I already have a computer program written that uses a filter similar to the one you came up with in Daba's thread this summer. Basically it takes in the winning percentages for each team, comes up with an "Average" of sorts and multiplies by the line. If the final # is > a certain baseline (which I will need to figure out based on what works best), then the program spits it out as a play. I'll be using that and posting plays on my sbr spreadsheet.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?...Ig&hl=en#gid=0

Can you post your plays in this thread for a while so we can see what you do?

[texhooper]

No way, the Zombie Girl version blows it away.

ok, well then it's just me against you. guess this wasn't the best place to have a broad-scale musical vote-off.

[curious]

Monday, December 27 Games

Games (I'll post Q and H later on tomorrow. I m making the bet size = probability of win % x 1 unit. The probability I calculate and no I won't give you the formula.)

Golden State -220 ML 6.6 to win 3
Houston ?? ML ?? to win 7
Dallas -110 ML 2.2 to win 2
Charlotte -165 ML 4.13 to win 2.5
Milwaukee -125 ML 1.25 to win 1
Minnesota +115 ML 1 to win 1.15
Memphis -240 ML 8.4 to win 3.5
Orlando -220 ML 2.2 to win 1
Utah -400 ML 16 to win 4
Sacramento -110 ML 1.1 to win 1

[curious]

Houston -550 38.5 to win 7

[Pajda]

Lovage is a definite winner for me.
Didn't really care for other versions.

[curious]

Q and H

Q 1
Houston to win 7
Milwaukee to win 1
Minnesota 1
Memphis to win 3.5
Orlando to win 2.2

Q2
Houston to win 7
Detroit to win 2.5
Memphis to win 3.5
Orlando to win 2.2

Q3
Houston to win 7
Charlotte to win 2.5
Atlanta 1
New Orleans to win 1
Sacramento to win 1

Q4
Dallas to win 2
New Jersey 1
Utah to win 4

1st Half
Houston to win 7
Minnesota 1
Memphis to win 3.5
Orlando to win 2.2

2nd Half
Charlotte to win 2.5
New Jersey 1
Utah to win 4

[EasyHustlin]

Can you post your plays in this thread for a while so we can see what you do?

On the spreadsheet I have 3 pieces of data for each team in the 1st quarter- Home Win %, Away Win %, and Total Win %. What I'm doing is taking the Home Win % for the home team and averaging it with the Away LOSING % of the away team. I take this number and multiply it by the line multiplier. Then I take the Total Win % for the home team and average it with the Total Losing % of the away team and multiply by the line again. I take these two values and average them. If the final # is > 50 (subject to change based on results), then it's a play. I do this for both teams.

The problem I'm seeing so far is I'm getting only dogs as plays, no favorites. Probably because it's hard to get a number greater than 50 when your line is -150 and higher. Your input is welcomed.

[Goat Milk]

good luck tday

[curious]

On the spreadsheet I have 3 pieces of data for each team in the 1st quarter- Home Win %, Away Win %, and Total Win %. What I'm doing is taking the Home Win % for the home team and averaging it with the Away LOSING % of the away team. I take this number and multiply it by the line multiplier. Then I take the Total Win % for the home team and average it with the Total Losing % of the away team and multiply by the line again. I take these two values and average them. If the final # is > 50 (subject to change based on results), then it's a play. I do this for both teams.

The problem I'm seeing so far is I'm getting only dogs as plays, no favorites. Probably because it's hard to get a number greater than 50 when your line is -150 and higher. Your input is welcomed.

I read this and I have no idea what it means. Sorry.

[EasyHustlin]

It's the same thing you did in Daba's thread. I'll try to find the post.