Curious Season Thread

[chaseman]

Glad to see you back, curious. and best wishes during the holidays to you and yours.

[Avatars]

curious, wouldn't it work with similar success if one waits till q1 ends and start to bet on loser of q1 (so not placing bet on q1 at all). it would decrease risk on chasing til q4....

[madmiek]

Good job

[curious]

curious, wouldn't it work with similar success if one waits till q1 ends and start to bet on loser of q1 (so not placing bet on q1 at all). it would decrease risk on chasing til q4....

Perhaps I confused some people.

You are correct, if you are using the chase it starts in the 2nd Q, otherwise you don't know who to bet on.

I do however also play %s in Q bets, the %s overrule the chase. If I bet the 1st Q it is because we have a high % 1st Q winning team playing a high % 1st Q losing team.

Now I do take teams in all Quarters which is not part of the chase because these teams have a very high % of winning in that Q and they are playing a team that has a high % of getting blown out in that Q.

For example the other day we had Minnesota playing Utah. Minnesota outscores opponents in the 1Q by 3, Utah's opponents outscore Utah in the 1Q by 5. So, I had Minnesota 1Q, which they easily won.

Another example, we had Atlanta in the 3Q over Cleveland. Atlanta is +1.5 over opponents in the 3Q, Cleveland is -6.5 in the 3Q. Easy money.

I hope that this is not too confusing.

[curious]

Glad to see you back, curious. and best wishes during the holidays to you and yours.

Thank you, we are having a great holiday. Watching the birds and the squirrels eat the seeds we set out for them.

[pattymayo]

bah Bookmaker put up 1Q lines but no moneyline.. thanks again for the tips curious, gonna try out some quarter betting tonight

[curious]

bah Bookmaker put up 1Q lines but no moneyline.. thanks again for the tips curious, gonna try out some quarter betting tonight

The Greek does ML quarters. Feel free to bet + the points on Qs at Bookmaker. I can't remember if I gave any of those out or not.

Its hard to find ML quarters, for some reason the books that do them don't advertise it very much. I have a list of them somewhere, I'll see if I can find it.

[curious]

http://www.betus.com/sportsbook/lines.aspx

They seem to offer money lines on quarters. Some of them are blank, maybe they are waiting till right before the Q starts? Not sure. I cannot vouch for how good this book is at paying, only saying that they have Q bets.

[7secondsOrLess]

love your ML style curious get that money

[7secondsOrLess]

its only a matter of time before lb starts hating on you too

[BoagRettor]

BookMaker does not offer the ML for Quarter bets. The Greek and 5Dimes do, but The Greek is far and away the better book because they will take heavy action whereas 5Dimes will limit you as soon as you make a few thousand dollars. I can bet $1,000 or more on Quarter bets at The Greek, never a problem.

Also, The Greek will put up 2H totals lines for many games before the 1H is over (sometimes with 3-4 minutes left in the half). It's a huge advantage if you know what you're doing.

[curious]

Does anyone have an account at BetDSI? http://www.2betdsi.com/ I want to see if they have Quarter and Halftime money lines but you have to have an account there to see. They say that they have what we need, but I'm not sure.

[curious]

its only a matter of time before lb starts hating on you too

lb? I don't know who that is.

[curious]

BookMaker does not offer the ML for Quarter bets. The Greek and 5Dimes do, but The Greek is far and away the better book because they will take heavy action whereas 5Dimes will limit you as soon as you make a few thousand dollars. I can bet $1,000 or more on Quarter bets at The Greek, never a problem.

Also, The Greek will put up 2H totals lines for many games before the 1H is over (sometimes with 3-4 minutes left in the half). It's a huge advantage if you know what you're doing.

We need quarter and half time bets that are money line and that come out right before the Q or 2nd half starts where the line reflects what has happened in the game up to that point. Does the Greek offer that? If so then we should just recommend The Greek to the people who ask. Everyone I know trusts The Greek.

[curious]

bet365 has the Q and H lines we need.

Okay, so this is irritating me. Several people complain that they can't find a book that does Q and H bets and I just start looking through the books on the SBR advertisement at the top of the lines page and in five minutes I find 3 books that have the Q and H bets that we need.

These people are having a joke at my expense right? Surely they are not so lazy that they won't check the books that SBR promotes.

I'm going to go kill myself now.

[creditcardclown]

Yes, I am playing Q and H. The lines on Q 2, 3, and 4 don't post until right before the Q starts so I post which side I will be on and leave the line blank. It is up to each player to figure out what line they will take.

Note** DO NOT lay points with favs on Q and H plays. You will get killed. Take the ML or stay away. DO take points on dogs on Q and H plays. We want to raise the win %. Going ML on favs and taking points on dogs raises the win %.

A COUPLE QUESTIONS please sir.

Why do we want to raise the % we win? I dont get what your insistence is on the ML for favorites is as opposed to the spread. You keep saying we´ll get killed taking the favorites and a spread for Q and H, could you please explain why? Earlier you said you were 70% on your quarter and half plays, but if you constantly bet ML isnt this stat irrelevant? Don´t we need your units won or lost?

thanks

[eddie0vedder]

Okay, I am going to explain a quarter strategy that we developed several years ago. None of the other cappers are on SBR any more because they got fed up with the nonsense. Here is the way it works. First, look back through EVERY GAME for EVERY TEAM and see if there are any teams that lose all Qs in a game more than 1 or 2 times for the season so far (this season, I could care less what happened last year). Throw those teams out. If you want to get real serious you could also compare matchups and see if there are any teams that hold any other teams to games where the opponent does not win a single Q. Okay, here is how it works. For the 1st Q go to http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat...quarter-margin and compare each game visitor vs home and use the columns visitor vs home for the matchup. Look for games where a GREAT 1st Q team is playing an awful 1st Q team. Play those 1st Q picks. Now, when the 1st Q is getting close to finishing, see who won the 1st Q and play the OTHER team for the 2nd Q. If any of the 2nd Q picks lose, then double up on them to play the 3rd Q, if that loses, double up again on the 4th Q. this is why we throw out the teams that have history of losing all 4 Qs. Now, this is VERY VERY VERY important. Take the dogs plus the points. Do not count on the dog for the game being the dog for any given Q. The fav for the game could be the dog for the 2nd Q if they get blown out in the 1st Q. I have seen this happen. VERY VERY VERY important, cont'd. Take the favs on the money line. Let me repeat, take the favs on the money line. If you lay points on quarter plays for favs you will get killed. If you want to get killed just don't do something that your wife told you to do and you will have your wish. Or, flirt with a woman who is younger and prettier than your wife and have her invite us to your funeral. But don't get killed doing something stupid in sports betting. Now, you are going to have a quandary. I post picks on Q plays for all 4 Qs. This quarter strategy I am telling you is going to contradict some of these posted plays. So, which ones do you take? That is up to you. I know how I do it, I cannot decide this for you. This strategy KILLS the books. Now, you are going to have a game once in a while where you go 3 Qs and you lose all 3 Qs. That is going to hurt. Different people have different ways of dealing with this. Some people say they don't care if one team loses in one game because we have so many winners so they don't do the Martingale. Personally, I use the Martingale but I have a high tolerance for EDUCATED risk. I would suggest that you work out your strategy ahead of time in MS Excel and then stick to that. Let's say that you are betting to win $100 and you are betting a dog on the 2 Q and the lose $110, then the 3rd Q you lay $220 on this team, and they lose, now you are laying $440 and let's say that they lose. You just lost $770. Now, if you only lay $110 then you lose $330. The difference will be in all those games where the team wins the 4Q and I made back all my loss + a profit of $110 and you won $110 and lost $220. Now, if the play we are backing is always a fav, OMG fohgetaboutit. This is why it is important to throw out teams that like to lose all 4 Qs. Last night there was some stupid team that lost 3 Qs and tied 1 Q. Toronto. Fortunately for me my Q plays that were predicted before the game started had Detroit in 2 of those Qs and Toronto in 2 of the Qs and I did not double up on the loss because I was playing plays based on the matchup and not the Q strategy. I don't know if Toronto was a dog in the Q that they tied. I'm thinking not. Anyway, if any questions just ask and I will try not to make too much fun of you when I answer your question.

i had a look at this last night as you have posted this before and just in the last 10 days it doesnt look good. i threw out the 4 worst teams in the nba and i stopped at pushes. i counted lost chases as 10 units, the record for the last 10 days was 48-44. im about to go back further. Now you state throw out teams that have lost all 4 quarters. one game was the lakers lost all 4 to mil, now it is very unlikely that they will lose all 4 again so you cant throw them out of this method. but that game the were -12 favs so im thinking my 1st filter willbe leave games that have a 10+ fav. another loss was philly, i have no problem throwing them out of the equation. the other 2 were decent teams, NO and cant remember the other. so you would have to just take those 2 losses and continue on i think.

[linedrivr]

Does anyone have an account at BetDSI? http://www.2betdsi.com/ I want to see if they have Quarter and Halftime money lines but you have to have an account there to see. They say that they have what we need, but I'm not sure.

I just logged into my DSI account. As of this posting, they offer 'lined' qtrs but no ML qtrs. Will check again closer to game times to see if they offer ML then.

[curious]

i had a look at this last night as you have posted this before and just in the last 10 days it doesnt look good. i threw out the 4 worst teams in the nba and i stopped at pushes. i counted lost chases as 10 units, the record for the last 10 days was 48-44. im about to go back further. Now you state throw out teams that have lost all 4 quarters. one game was the lakers lost all 4 to mil, now it is very unlikely that they will lose all 4 again so you cant throw them out of this method. but that game the were -12 favs so im thinking my 1st filter willbe leave games that have a 10+ fav. another loss was philly, i have no problem throwing them out of the equation. the other 2 were decent teams, NO and cant remember the other. so you would have to just take those 2 losses and continue on i think.

Not sure what you mean when you say that you stopped at pushes.

When you say that the record is 48-44 I'm not sure how you get that if a lost chase is -10.

I don't really understand this.

[BoagRettor]

The Greek offers ML bets for 2H, 3Q and 4Q at halftime. I don't know of a book that offers Quarter bets after the 1Q ends for the 2Q or after the 3Q ends for the 4Q.

Also, Bet365 (like Pinnacle), does not accept USA-based players.

[eddie0vedder]

Not sure what you mean when you say that you stopped at pushes. When you say that the record is 48-44 I'm not sure how you get that if a lost chase is -10. I don't really understand this.

Yesterday, toronto v detroit. Det win the 1st Q. We chase toronto Qml as they are the favs and are not getting + lines. they lose the 2Q. 3Q is 24 all. This is a push. i stop here. i dont chase the last Q due to the push. loss of 1 unit. or u chase the last and would rebet the 220, they lost the 4th too so you would lose 3.5-4 units

[Goat Milk]

good luck tonight. probably won't get to watch either game, got to hurry up and get christmas shopping done

[eddie0vedder]

actually if you bet ml on a quarter and it ties, do you lose the bet? if so this could get really ugly

[BoagRettor]

actually if you bet ml on a quarter and it ties, do you lose the bet? if so this could get really ugly

No, it's a push.

[curious]

A COUPLE QUESTIONS please sir.

Why do we want to raise the % we win? I dont get what your insistence is on the ML for favorites is as opposed to the spread. You keep saying we´ll get killed taking the favorites and a spread for Q and H, could you please explain why? Earlier you said you were 70% on your quarter and half plays, but if you constantly bet ML isnt this stat irrelevant? Don´t we need your units won or lost?

thanks

I have no idea what your first question means.

If you play the spread on Q and H plays you will lose. Not sure what else to tell you. Unless you are a very skilled capper. I'm skilled and I can't beat the lines makers on Q and H. If you don't believe me play the spread and see how you do.

Well, my actual record is > 70% some years and > 80% some years. Oh, I see your problem, you are assuming that every ML play is -1000 or -1500. They aren't. Some plays are dogs, some are small favs, some are big favs. It all works out in the wash. I laid off of a big fav the other night, -1000 and they lost to Milwaukee, got totally smoked, Lakers I think.

All of my plays using this approach this year are in this thread. Figure it up if you want. Let's see, from memory, one night we went 19-3, last night we went 35-10 or something like that, had a losing night in between, I think we lost 8 units. I think we are up 40 units right now over 3 days.

If >70% win rate is not good enough for you feel free to go to other threads.

[curious]

good luck tonight. probably won't get to watch either game, got to hurry up and get christmas shopping done

Want to hear something funny? I have an old style big picture tube TV, bought in 2004. At the end of this year our cable company said that those TVs will no longer work, something about the signal being changed. So, I bought my wife a big screen TV, something I said I would never do. I got it gift wrapped at the mall, that was fun lugging that huge thing all over the mall.

So, I have been telling her that the big present is a roof TV antennae and we will be getting 3 or 4 channels once we lose cable.

[Goat Milk]

Want to hear something funny? I have an old style big picture tube TV, bought in 2004. At the end of this year our cable company said that those TVs will no longer work, something about the signal being changed. So, I bought my wife a big screen TV, something I said I would never do. I got it gift wrapped at the mall, that was fun lugging that huge thing all over the mall.

So, I have been telling her that the big present is a roof TV antennae and we will be getting 3 or 4 channels once we lose cable.

LOL. Your wife is a phd candidate, she probably knows whats up. typically you see gamblers having the whole set up, the monitors, the lcd tvs, but you are just satisfied with the 04 tube haha

[BoagRettor]

I just bought my wife a frontload washer and dryer for Christmas. Had it installed the other day and there are still clothes all over the house. WTF?

[curious]

LOL. Your wife is a phd candidate, she probably knows whats up. typically you see gamblers having the whole set up, the monitors, the lcd tvs, but you are just satisfied with the 04 tube haha

I'm sure she knows but I like messing with her.

I don't watch sports games unless it is amateur girl's volleyball at the beach, or maybe topless roller derby. My wife lets me watch that. My wife is pretty cool.

I bet on sporting events to make money. I don't like watching the games.

[curious]

I just bought my wife a frontload washer and dryer for Christmas. Had it installed the other day and there are still clothes all over the house. WTF?

My wife would laugh at you if you weren't washing the clothes yourself. I take my clothes to the full service wash and fold place.

[curious]

Posting today's picks again

I can see that this is going to be one of those threads where there is one pick for every five pages of posts. LOL

Here are tonight's picks, posted at least 10 times over the previous 30 or 40 pages.

We have been fooling around so much today's picks are 2 or 3 pages back. Here they are so you can actually find them.

San Antonio +2 1/2 2.2 units to win 2 units
San Antonio +125 ML 1 unit to win 1.25 unit

Milwaukee -1 3.3 units to win 3 units

All Q and H plays risking 1 unit on + odds, risking to win 1 unit on - odds.

1Q
Sacramento
Orlando

2Q
Orlando
Miami

3Q
Milwaukee
San Antonio
Miami

4Q
San Antonio
Phoenix

1H
Sacramento
Orlando

2H
Milwaukee
San Antonio

[Dexter]

LOL. Your wife is a phd candidate, she probably knows whats up. typically you see gamblers having the whole set up, the monitors, the lcd tvs, but you are just satisfied with the 04 tube haha

LED bro....LCD's are ancient.

i just got 2 for my new place...

[curious]

Hey Dexter, how have you been? Are you going to have a great Christmas?

My wife has had me working in the yard for two weeks. LOL

[Dexter]

I have no idea what your first question means.

If you play the spread on Q and H plays you will lose. Not sure what else to tell you. Unless you are a very skilled capper. I'm skilled and I can't beat the lines makers on Q and H. If you don't believe me play the spread and see how you do.

Well, my actual record is > 70% some years and > 80% some years. Oh, I see your problem, you are assuming that every ML play is -1000 or -1500. They aren't. Some plays are dogs, some are small favs, some are big favs. It all works out in the wash. I laid off of a big fav the other night, -1000 and they lost to Milwaukee, got totally smoked, Lakers I think.

All of my plays using this approach this year are in this thread. Figure it up if you want. Let's see, from memory, one night we went 19-3, last night we went 35-10 or something like that, had a losing night in between, I think we lost 8 units. I think we are up 40 units right now over 3 days.

If >70% win rate is not good enough for you feel free to go to other threads.

curious - listen man (and dont call me a *crackhead* ).....a 70% win rate can be deceiving (not a knock on you) and i see that you also make other plays - but throwing out that "70%" win rate is only going to entice novice bettors to tail you. if you dont have the bankroll (which many people dont) you're style will get people buried when they cant reload. you know what you're doing and your style works for you im sure, but stop mentioning %'s when you play moneylines.

keep track via M&M's...lol

btw....ever here from TBlueEyes anymore? hope shes doing ok...

[Dexter]

Hey Dexter, how have you been? Are you going to have a great Christmas?

My wife has had me working in the yard for two weeks. LOL

ahh...just had some dental work done today and im sitting here with a bottle of Vicodin....