Money Line Parlays in the NBA = By Far the Best Way to Bet

[curious]

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[curious]

Hey Keel...could you check 7+ HOME favs?? That is my main filter....I think 7 is def. a key number in NBA too...

7 is absolutely a key number in NBA. I hope that no one listens to this guy, he is going to cost them money.

[jolmscheid]

I have noticed curious that 7 point HOME favs in football and basketball hit at a higher rate obviously...so that is the FIRST filter I have in place....

[keel44]

If you risk the same amount no matter how you bet, is that not could flat betting?

I am not suggesting round robins. I am not even suggesting parlays. I am actually suggesting a flat bet approach. If after a few days, your losing money, then raise your stakes and stay there until you catch up. I guess you could call it a "up as you lose" semi martingale. I am just doing some research that's all.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks for doing the research keel! I don't know if you would have time to look at 7+ point HOME favs?? And maybe even adding a filter where the closing odds were more on the fav instead of the dog??

[curious]

I have noticed curious that 7 point HOME favs in football and basketball hit at a higher rate obviously...so that is the FIRST filter I have in place....

go to www.sportsdatabase.com and you can answer any question you want.

Just for fun I ran a query that tells us what you would be at right now if you bet only home teams on the ML where the spread is < or = -7.

date>20100707 and site=home and line<=-7

SU: 109-14

Removing the home team filter you get:
SU: 128-16

So, the away teams are 19-2, the home teams are 109-14. The away teams are a better play.

[keel44]

Thanks for doing the research keel! I don't know if you would have time to look at 7+ point HOME favs?? And maybe even adding a filter where the closing odds were more on the fav instead of the dog??

I don't know what you mean. Give me a range to look for (7 - ?) Closing odds are the final spread number before tip-off. I do not know what you are talking about in your last sentence.

[curious]

If you risk the same amount no matter how you bet, is that not could flat betting?

I am not suggesting round robins. I am not even suggesting parlays. I am actually suggesting a flat bet approach. If after a few days, your losing money, then raise your stakes and stay there until you catch up. I guess you could call it a "up as you lose" semi martingale. I am just doing some research that's all.

Don't know what your first statement means. The strategy you suggest is a good way to go broke.

We tested this very thoroughly using money for two seasons, there were about ten of us I think. This is what we found.

Take only teams that are -7 or less.
Determine what your win is going to be ahead of time, say before the season starts.
Always risk an amount that will win that amount, this means you will risk more on the heavy favorites and less on the lighter favorites. Whether you use parlays or not doesn't really matter.

This isn't flat betting, every bet is risking a different amount. The win is always the same but that isn't flat betting.

Take any season you want, and list all the teams that played that day that were -7 or less and put them into a parlay to win $1000 and see what happens.

We also used NCAA basketball and mixed the NBA and the NCAA, you have to be careful on the NCAA, you have to cap those games because sometimes the lines are nonsense.

[keel44]

Curious, I understand what you are talking about. You could forget about parlays for right now. I am just saying you could risk

$100 @ -320 to win $31.25
$100 @ -280 to win $35.71
$100 @ -800 to win $12.50

All straight bets. If you start losing some money, raise the risk amount to $150. That is what I am saying.

Just a theory

[curious]

Curious, I understand what you are talking about. You could forget about parlays for right now. I am just saying you could risk

$100 @ -320 to win $31.25
$100 @ -280 to win $35.71
$100 @ -800 to win $12.50

All straight bets. If you start losing some money, raise the risk amount to $150. That is what I am saying.

Just a theory

That is the wrong way to go. What you want to do is this:
-320 risk $320 to win $100
-280 risk $280 to win $100
-800 risk $800 to win $100

[keel44]

I want less risk than doing it that way.

[homerbush]

Here is less risk, parlay wizards and Arkansas LR tonight on the ml. I would not trust Rice and New Jersey right now even to win those games.

[curious]

I want less risk than doing it that way.

You are not risking less, you are betting less. There is a huge difference between the risk and the amount bet.

If I bet $1000 on a team that is -120 and $1000 on a team that is -800 which bet has the most risk?

[BernardMadoff]

You are not risking less, you are betting less. There is a huge difference between the risk and the amount bet.

If I bet $1000 on a team that is -120 and $1000 on a team that is -800 which bet has the most risk?

Thanks for all the info on the other pages bro.

[thefonzo]

Curious, I understand what you are talking about. You could forget about parlays for right now. I am just saying you could risk

$100 @ -320 to win $31.25
$100 @ -280 to win $35.71
$100 @ -800 to win $12.50

All straight bets. If you start losing some money, raise the risk amount to $150. That is what I am saying.

Just a theory

The problem I see with your scenario above is that you are down $$ if any one of those three lose. If one loses, best case scenario (-800 loses) you are down $33. Worse scenario (more likely) is you lose $45-50. What if 2 of them lose?

If I'm gonna be down if any lose at all, I'm gonna parlay them to minimize risk. That way if hell freezes over and they all lose, I'm out the same $$ as if one had lost.

This probably had nothing to do with your argument/discussion. it's just my opinion/2 cents worth.

[keel44]

When I say risk, I mean total money invested for one day. I am a bit of a low roller.

[dwang0725]

When I say risk, I mean total money invested for one day. I am a bit of a low roller.

If you're betting MLs, you better have deep pockets. We are parlaying bets so that we can get bigger returns on games deemed to be "sure things". To risk so much money on a ML favorite single game wise has absolutely no value.

[JOHON8]

Curious, I understand what you are talking about. You could forget about parlays for right now. I am just saying you could risk

$100 @ -320 to win $31.25
$100 @ -280 to win $35.71
$100 @ -800 to win $12.50

All straight bets. If you start losing some money, raise the risk amount to $150. That is what I am saying.

Just a theory

That's the best way to go broke.

Go to google and find help guides on gambling you'll need to before you start betting, you will never make a profit in the long run playing MLs like this.... NEVER.

[keel44]

I will give an example of the strategy I am talking about. I will assume on average -300 for all games. I will start by risking $100. I will divide the string of games into about 20. So after about every 20 bets, I will reevaluate my risk amount. (please see post #384 for my data)

RISKING $100
17-5 (+$67)
RISKING $100
10-10 (-$667)
RISKING $150
12-8 (-$600)
RISKING $220
14-4 (+$147)
RISKING $250
13-7 (-$666)
RISKING $350
17-3 (+$933)
RISKING $300
14-3 (+$500)
RISKING $250
19-3 (+$833)
RISKING $150
17-1 (+700)

Grand Total of: +$1247 a little over 12 units profit

You see, I raise and lower my bets depending on whether I am up or down overall based on the fact I need to win close to 75 - 80 % overall. When I am behind pace, I raise. When I am on pace, I lower.

[curious]

When I say risk, I mean total money invested for one day. I am a bit of a low roller.

You are not discussing risk, you are discussing bet size, those are very different things. I'm not trying to give you a hard time, trying to help you understand the math because it is tricky. If you are just doing this for fun, then it doesn't matter much. I'm not doing it for fun. Anyway, have fun and win big!

[curious]

If you're betting MLs, you better have deep pockets. We are parlaying bets so that we can get bigger returns on games deemed to be "sure things". To risk so much money on a ML favorite single game wise has absolutely no value.

Actually you have it backwards. IF a player is playing a large number of plays, like me, for example, then you should ONLY be betting the ML. I joined this parlay thread because it looked like a good bunch of guys and a place where I could hang out. I've been working really hard for a long time and finally got a break. And playing parlays is fun, I'll admit.

Betting a parlay involves a vig that is not present in a ML bet. Let's say that I'm playing NBA, NCAAB, and NCAAF and I'm only taking big favs on the ML on straight bets. Assuming straight bets, I'll probably make 300 bets across all these sports. I'll be ahead if I do them straight vs doing them as parlays because with the parlay there is extra vig.

Now, I have deep pockets so if I lose a -500 bet, no big deal. If someone without deep pockets wants to be in this league they have to use parlays.

So, there is no criticism here, each player is doing what is best given their bankroll size.

[curious]

Rice -300
Tulsa -450
Nets TBD
Celtics TBD
San Diego -475

Round robin 2x across all teams
I will probably do this to win $3,000

I'll update this later when I can get a line on Nets and Celtics, if the line is too low I will remove them.

Okay, the Nets are sticking at -6, so let's toss them out and go with:
Boston Celtics -300 (NBA)
Tulsa -380 (NCAAB)
Rice -300 (NCAAB)
San Diego Chargers -550 (NFL)

Betting this as a straight 2 play round robin, that means all these teams in every possible combination of a 2 pick parlay.

Risk $6000 to win $3790

Let's win some money crackheads!!

Oh, and if you didn't know that the Boston Celtics are NBA and San Diego Chargers are NFL then please kill yourself. LOL Not sure why I listed those. LOL

[jolmscheid]

Hey curious what do you think about picking a unit size and recalculating daily based on your bankroll. Good or bad idea

[jolmscheid]

Also I don't know hoe to do the queries on sports database...yea I'm dumb...but if someone could look up all home and away spreads of 7 , 8, 9, etc for nba and NFL and ncaa that'd be great!

[MrShrink]

alright... this ml parlay can't go wrong (i hope... hahaha)...

New Jersey Nets -260
Boston Celtics -320

Rice -300

Parlay odds: +142


anyone with me?

[curious]

alright... this ml parlay can't go wrong (i hope... hahaha)...

New Jersey Nets -260
Boston Celtics -320

Rice -300

Parlay odds: +142


anyone with me?

NO, I don't like losing money. Throw out the Nets. Add the NFL team. I like Rice.

[curious]

Also I don't know hoe to do the queries on sports database...yea I'm dumb...but if someone could look up all home and away spreads of 7 , 8, 9, etc for nba and NFL and ncaa that'd be great!

You need to learn how to do this yourself. I'll show you the queries, it isn't that hard. The query will be the same for any sport. I'm not going to do them individually, I'll do <= -7 (less than or equal to -7).

Here is the query for NBA
date>20100707 and line<=-7

You have to set a date that gets you beyond last year but before this year.

The result for NBA is:
SU: 128-16

You can run the query yourself for NFL and NCAAF and NCAAB.

[curious]

Hey curious what do you think about picking a unit size and recalculating daily based on your bankroll. Good or bad idea

What you are saying is the recommended way to do it. Make the unit size a % of your bank in $$ not just "unit" (whatever the heck that is). Make sure that the $$ amount is a small % of your bank. Unless your bank is really small then it has to be a high %. I never go over 1% but I have been doing this a long time and I remember my first sporting event bet, my bet was 40% of my bank. LOL Don't do that. LOL

Adjust your bet size every few days to the % of your bank. I don't know what size your bank is, make the RISK bet size the smallest % of your bank that you can and still have a decent bet.

For example, if your bank is $2000 then your bet size should be something low like $50 IF you know you have an edge on that game. If you have a small bank then I would suggest doing like some of my friends did and only taking parlays at 1-1 and only taking sure winners in these parlays. They would pick 5 or 6 teams across NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, and NFL to get to the 1-1.

Post your parlays and let us look at them.

I vary my bet size based on the odds of the play or parlay. So, if I am betting on a team that is -500. I will risk more than if betting on a team that is -200 because I bet to win the same amount, not risk the same amount.

[MrShrink]

[quote=curious;7955988] Throw out the Nets.[quote]

any reason? or just because you said so?

Thanks.

[curious]

For Fun Parlay (play this small if you play it)

Don't go crazy on this it is just for fun.

(These first ones are NCAA basketball)
NC State -1400
Memphis -1100
N Dakota State -525
Missouri -1400
Arizona -1650
San Diego Chargers -550 (NFL)
Boston Celtics -310 (NBA)

$1000 to win $1471

Woo Hoo 7 teams and +147 LOL

[curious]

[QUOTE=MrShrink;7956220][quote=curious;7955988] Throw out the Nets.

any reason? or just because you said so?

Thanks.

I think the NFL team is a much stronger play than the Nets and I don't think the Nets/Washington game can be capped.

Washington is 6-17, New Jersey is 6-19, you want the gambler to be risking money on these knucklehead teams when he can take the San Diego Chargers at home instead?

[balman]

okay I should have had a winning night, I hit my parlays but made a couple of loser ATS bets(Rockets +8.5, Spurs -8.5) screwed up my paraly winnings... going only parlay tonight
i dont follow or know shit about college basketball so i will have to tail you guys
4 team parly SD,BOS,Rice,Tulsa R100 W175
2 Team Parlay Rice Tulsa R200 W140
2 team long shot Den n NJ R100 W175
6 team parlay with all of the above R50 W300

after reading all of curious's post i will rethink my strategy about aking long shots i.e. Den and NJ on parlays

Cheers

[balman]

[quote=curious;7956412][quote=MrShrink;7956220]

Throw out the Nets.

I think the NFL team is a much stronger play than the Nets and I don't think the Nets/Washington game can be capped.

Washington is 6-17, New Jersey is 6-19, you want the gambler to be risking money on these knucklehead teams when he can take the San Diego Chargers at home instead?

i thought you only did NBA Parlays??
so you do throw in some NFL, colloge football n college basketball?

will you be poosting your halves n 1/4s posts?

[MrShrink]

[quote=curious;7956412][quote=MrShrink;7956220]

Throw out the Nets.

I think the NFL team is a much stronger play than the Nets and I don't think the Nets/Washington game can be capped.

Washington is 6-17, New Jersey is 6-19, you want the gambler to be risking money on these knucklehead teams when he can take the San Diego Chargers at home instead?

Good point. I have SD-3 parlayed on a few tix. Also the teased under @ 52.

The NJN play is more of a guts play, i guess. Have a good feeling about Harris and Farmar in this one and i know Avery doesn't want to see his team lose b2b @ home with rest in between, so I think they're gonna have incentive to beat up on an injured WAS squad @ home. Again, just guts. BOL.

[bulichme]

SD should be a regular the rest of the season.