TodaysLocks **Official NBA PR System Thread**

[TodaysLocks]

Many of you know me, many despise me, many don't care either way...

In the past I used my excel system to predict winners when matched with certain trends.

Recently my system hit a cold streak so I gutted it. I took out the trends aspect and stop weighing it so heavily.

I also rely less on my simulations.

I began noticing that the Power Rankings in my system were the key to picking winners.

I then stumbled upon these amazing threads:

These guys do an amazing job and using my system, and theirs, I have been back to winning ways the last few weeks.

That said, cold streaks do happen.

Anyways, here's how it works.

When my Power Rankings have an Underdog ranked higher than a favorite, I play the UNDER.

When the Underdog is favored by more than one point in my power rankings, I make a play on the Dog.

When the power rankings have the DOG as a negative (if they are +3, I subtract the value of the teams power rankings), we play the under.

For example:

Atlanta v. New York +4

Lets say ATL ranking is 92 and NY ranking is 89. I add 3 points to NY for homecourt.

So its 92-92 = 0.

Then I subtract the spread which is 4 and NY suddenly is a -4 point favorite. I would make a play on them AND play the UNDER.

Its confusing but will eventually make sense.

I'll update plays whenever I can.

Tonights NBA plays are:

NO +3.5

NO/OKC Under 200.5

Milwaukee +9

Mil/Utah under 187.5
-----------------------------

I also will have ncaa football and nfl threads. check em out and good luck.

[in2win3]

nice to see you back TL....good luck with your plays!

[ttwarrior1]

horrific plays but good luck. I will fade them

[PLAYA-PLAYA]

GOOD LUCK on your PLAYS-------LOCK-------THANKS FOR TAKING THE TIME

[Broken-Ear Glen]

horrific plays but good luck. I will fade them

post your plays hot shot

[TodaysLocks]

horrific plays but good luck. I will fade them

I hope you're here at the end of the night to see if you're right or not.

[Joe Dogs]

Good luck with your plays.

[gv12]

great to see you back TL, looking forward to the plays in this thread

[TodaysLocks]

11/29 system PR plays: 1-3

We'll start fresh:

YTD: 1-3

[Skyliners2010]

Let's roll!

[maxcraft]

Where are your plays???

[jayson14]

11/29 system PR plays: 1-3

We'll start fresh:

YTD: 1-3

How about keping sides and totals records seperate. I have the other software you spoke of earlier, I like what you got going on here.

[the h man]

How about keping sides and totals records seperate. I have the other software you spoke of earlier, I like what you got going on here.

agreed

[TodaysLocks]

YTD Sides: 0-2

YTD Totals: 1-1

[pep]

Glad to see u posting again TL

[GGPLAYER]

Already checked in your others threads and I'm doing the same here. Again I am interested in to see how these play out.

[drfunkmaster]

good luck

[TodaysLocks]

11/30/10 PR Plays:
---------------------
Two of my plays tonight are from my good friends in this thread:



I use their TOER plays. The only thing I do different is I added a filter where I only play on UNDERDOGS and no favorites. Also, I back away from any game where the line has shifted more than a point.

The plays tonight from TOER are:

Cleveland +7

Memphis +5
--------------
Here are my personal Power Ranking plays:

Philadelphia +3.5

Portland/Philly UNDER 192

Indiana/Sacramento OVER 192

That's a total of 5 plays tonight. Play at even units. Good luck all.

[TodaysLocks]

11/30/10 Sides: 2-1

Totals: 2-0

Sides YTD: 2-3

Totals YTD: 3-1

[GGPLAYER]

Good work last night.

[Binhduong]

Welcome back, TL, good as before, choose your 3 teams and make it parlays. Cha Ching.

[TodaysLocks]

In case anyone was wondering, here is how our OVER plays are determined.

Just like we play the UNDER when our Power Rankings favor a DOG, we play the OVER only when a favorite has a ratio of >= 5 against a dog.

Keep in mind I never take a favorite and lay the points. Only play dogs. Here's how the pacers/kings OVER play was determined.

PACERS rated 135.5 in my Power Rankings.

KINGS rated 122.47 in my Power Rankings.

Kings at home bumps them to 125.47.

135.5 - 125.47 = 10.03.

10.03 - 4 point spread = 6.03.

6.03 is greater than the "5" benchmark so we play the Over.

On the UNDER play, Portland was a 128 ranking and Philly was a 127.

Add 3 points for homecourt and Philly becomes a 130 to Portland 128.

We subtract the 3.5 spread from the 2 and Philly becomes a -5.5 favorite when the line has them as a +3.5 dog.

This tells us to take Philly +3.5 and to play the UNDER 191.5.

[isg2010]

2 minus 3.5 is actually -1.5, not -5.5. Your two equations don't seem to be consistent.

[ManBearPig]

2 minus 3.5 is actually -1.5, not -5.5. Your two equations don't seem to be consistent.

-3.5 - 2 = -5.5 IND was a -3.5 pt fav at the time...at least that's how I interpret.

[TodaysLocks]

2 minus 3.5 is actually -1.5, not -5.5. Your two equations don't seem to be consistent.

Not to be a jerk, but if you followed the math you would see.

Portland 128 and Philly 127. Philly to 130 because they are home.

This makes it Philly 130 - 128 for Portland. This makes Philly a 2 point favorite.

Then, the odds makers are giving us 3.5 points, so you subtract this from the -2 and it gives you -5.5.

My data is consistent if you read through it without coming to harsh judgements.

[the h man]

Plays for today?

[TodaysLocks]

Here's an example without crossing the 0 to simplify it.

If hou vs nyk and it's in ny.

If Houston rated 100 and nyk rated 95, and line is hou -1.

Knicks at home so we bump them to 98.

100-98 = 2. so Houston by 2.

Then subtract the line 2-1 = 1. Since it isn't greater than 5, or less than 0, this game is a no play.

If hou is favored by 10 though,

100-98 = 2.

Then 2- 10(the line) = -8.

So this means the Knicks are way undervalued and we take them +10 and also play the Under bc we play Under the total whenever the line crosses 0 in favor of a dog.

Hope this makes sense.

[ManBearPig]

Got it marked...

So we have a filter where we don't play a team with a lower PR laying points and you do exactly that right? Chicago seems to fit that bill tonight at least according to the PR I have and the line. Would you look at making a play here on either side or O/U?

[TodaysLocks]

Got it marked...

So we have a filter where we don't play a team with a lower PR laying points and you do exactly that right? Chicago seems to fit that bill tonight at least according to the PR I have and the line. Would you look at making a play here on either side or O/U?

If the PR is initially higher, I play the under. So if nyk are a 98 and hou is a 94, but hou is favored by 4, I play the under but lay off the side.

But if it's 98 nyk and 96 hou and game in hou and it makes it 98 nyk and 99 hou, and nyk favored by 4, I'd take the side of hou and the other.

I ONLY play a dog with a higher PR if it becomes that way due to homecourt or the line, not if initially. If hou PR was 95 and nyk 94, and nyk favored, I play under but lay off side bc team with lower PR laying points.

I took that filter from you guys. .

I'll check out chi game.

[TodaysLocks]

You are correct. According to my filters and power rankings, if the line stays where it is, Orlando/chi would be an UNDER play tonight.

[TodaysLocks]

^^^^ this is because chicago is favored but Orlando has the higher PR.

[isg2010]

TL - I wasn't making judgements, hence using the word "seem". I figured there was a good explanation.

[TodaysLocks]

TL - I wasn't making judgements, hence using the word "seem". I figured there was a good explanation.

Yea Srry man my post seemed defensive after I read it. Didn't mean for that.

I welcome all questions or concerns!

Sorry again.

[ManBearPig]

If the PR is initially higher, I play the under. So if nyk are a 98 and hou is a 94, but hou is favored by 4, I play the under but lay off the side. But if it's 98 nyk and 96 hou and game in hou and it makes it 98 nyk and 99 hou, and nyk favored by 4, I'd take the side of hou and the other. I ONLY play a dog with a higher PR if it becomes that way due to homecourt or the line, not if initially. If hou PR was 95 and nyk 94, and nyk favored, I play under but lay off side bc team with lower PR laying points. I took that filter from you guys. . I'll check out chi game.

Thanks for clearing up...this is of interest to me because I am developing a system for picking O/U that uses PR's and I'm wondering if I could incorporate idea into it. It's hitting pretty high right now, but I don't have enough data to really call it a money maker

[TodaysLocks]

Thanks for clearing up...this is of interest to me because I am developing a system for picking O/U that uses PR's and I'm wondering if I could incorporate idea into it. It's hitting pretty high right now, but I don't have enough data to really call it a money maker

Monitor this and see if it can be of use to you. I'll list filters tonight.