TodaysLocks Official NBA PR System Thread

**jsund** · 12-01-10, 05:02 PM

todaylocks---do you have the games for to-nite yet? i am going out & wanted to bet your picks before i left.

**TodaysLocks** · 12-01-10, 05:20 PM

Picks will be up shortly.

**TodaysLocks** · 12-01-10, 05:42 PM

12/1/10 plays:

This is the most plays in one night I've ever got out of my power rankings. This will be a test to see how they hold up over a good amount of games.

Side plays:

Nets +5.5

Indiana +8

Over/under plays:

Spurs/clippers over 204

Nets/okl under 193.5

Port/Boston over 187

Orl/chi under 192.5

Cha/NO under 186.5

Minny/Dallas over 205

Mil/Denver under 198.5

Indiana/Utah under 198.

Tonight will determine if I add more filters to limit my plays.

If I continue to get this many, I'll need to determine if I hit a high enough rate to justify all the juice.

Good luck to whoever plays these. Even units everyone.

**latinrus** · 12-01-10, 05:46 PM

BOL tonight TL! I'm checking and maybe will play some in NBA till now I haven't been playing

**jsund** · 12-01-10, 09:32 PM

todayslocks---I am trying to do your system on totals (overs & unders) what power ratings are you using? I used those on sportrends & I am not able to come to the same conclusions as you on the over and unders.
for instance i have san antonio pr 105.5 & clippers 94.5, add home advantage gives clippers 97.5 then 7 pts gives them 104.5 to spurs 105.5?

Please help and be patient i know there is something i am doing wrong
thank you

**ManBearPig** · 12-01-10, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by jsund

todayslocks---I am trying to do your system on totals (overs & unders) what power ratings are you using? I used those on sportrends & I am not able to come to the same conclusions as you on the over and unders. for instance i have san antonio pr 105.5 & clippers 94.5, add home advantage gives clippers 97.5 then 7 pts gives them 104.5 to spurs 105.5?

Please help and be patient i know there is something i am doing wrong thank you

He uses his own...

**jsund** · 12-01-10, 09:47 PM

ManBear PIG--THANK YOU SIR--THAT EXPLAINS IT

**TodaysLocks** · 12-02-10, 07:02 AM

Sides YTD: 3-4

Totals YTD: 6-5-1

If not for a fluke 3 pointer at the buzzer by the nets, we would have hit the under as the game was at 183 points with one second left. Overtime will kill any under.

Also if anyone watched denver game, please explain why they fouled TWICE in the last 25 seconds of a blowout and ended up pushing the total to 199 and losing the under by half a point!!

That stuff happens though...

I am now going to not play OVERS until I have more data on them.

In my records, I was on the right side of all the unders but on the wrong side of 2-3 overs.

Also, I got pacers at 198.5 so I actually hit it but since I listed at 198 in here I'm calling a push.

Today we will only have dog plays and unders. Plays to come!

**gv12** · 12-02-10, 07:15 AM

GL today TL, looking forward to the plays

**ManBearPig** · 12-02-10, 12:05 PM

I noticed you were money on the unders as well so I think you may be on to something there. I think the overs are tough to gauge unless your dealing with GS, PHO, or NY. It seems that unders are cashing big right now. My system picks a lot of overs and so I think there needs to be some tweaking.

I also got burned on that last second 3 in the Nets game cuz it blew my OKC cover that I had all but given up on at the end of the 4th...

**tryin2makeabuck** · 12-02-10, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Sides YTD: 3-4

Totals YTD: 6-5-1

If not for a fluke 3 pointer at the buzzer by the nets, we would have hit the under as the game was at 183 points with one second left. Overtime will kill any under.

Also if anyone watched denver game, please explain why they fouled TWICE in the last 25 seconds of a blowout and ended up pushing the total to 199 and losing the under by half a point!!

That stuff happens though...

I am now going to not play OVERS until I have more data on them.

In my records, I was on the right side of all the unders but on the wrong side of 2-3 overs.

Also, I got pacers at 198.5 so I actually hit it but since I listed at 198 in here I'm calling a push.

Today we will only have dog plays and unders. Plays to come!

I'm done with Nuggets games. I actually won last night on that over but there is something very fishy with their games this year. I got burned bad in their first game with Chicago when Karl called a timeout down by 4 pts with less than a second on the clock. He drew up a play and the nuggets cover by scoring hte last garbage basket.

**TodaysLocks** · 12-02-10, 04:32 PM

12/2/10 PR Plays:

Phoenix/GS under 228.5

**panaeolus** · 12-02-10, 10:28 PM

why u play under,in that one? suns is the dog right?its not negative
can u mae an example in suns game?

with the PR
thanks

**TodaysLocks** · 12-03-10, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by panaeolus

why u play under,in that one? suns is the dog right?its not negative
can u mae an example in suns game?

with the PR
thanks

Suns have the higher Power Ranking, and they are a dog. That means we play the under.

**gv12** · 12-03-10, 12:19 AM

GL on the under TL, I played the under as well as I thought too many people were on the over, hope it hits

**ManBearPig** · 12-03-10, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Suns have the higher Power Ranking, and they are a dog. That means we play the under.

I had planned on playing the over right up until I played it when I changed my mind for some strange reason. I ignored the obvious and now have to suffer through a losing night.

**solecrazy** · 12-03-10, 01:47 AM

glad to see that your back bro! i'm staying away from the NBA right now until later into the season but BOL on all your plays and i hope your new system is a money maker

**panaeolus** · 12-03-10, 05:28 AM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Suns have the higher Power Ranking, and they are a dog. That means we play the under.

thanks so much TL,a pick for yesterday could be suns too,according to ur second rule right?can u make an example based on (When the power rankings have the DOG as a negative (if they are +3, I subtract the value of the teams power rankings), we play the under.) ,what u mean dog as a negative

**TodaysLocks** · 12-03-10, 05:44 AM

Originally posted by panaeolus

thanks so much TL,a pick for yesterday could be suns too,according to ur second rule right?can u make an example based on (When the power rankings have the DOG as a negative (if they are +3, I subtract the value of the teams power rankings), we play the under.) ,what u mean dog as a negative

Here's why I didn't play the Suns. There is mixed data when a team with a higher PR is an underdog.

The guys in the Sportrends thread have a filter where you NEVER play a side in a game where the team with the HIGHER PR, is an underdog. That's why I laid off the Suns.

But, here's an example:

If GS power ranking was 150 and the Suns power ranking was 147.

Let's assume GS is favored by 9.5 points.

We add 3 to GS ranking because they are at home. So their PR becomes 153.

We subtract the fav from the dog:

153-147 = 6

Then we subtract the line:

6-9.5 = -3.5

Since we crossed the 0 into a negative, we play the under. And since we crossed the -3 mark, we'd also play the Suns +9.5.

These are my own rules and own power rankings keep in mind.

**TodaysLocks** · 12-03-10, 05:55 AM

Sides YTD: 3-4

TOTALS YTD: 7-5-1

Yesterday 1-0.

Filters added: No more playing Overs.

I believe this would have yielded a 5-2-1 record so far on totals.

**GGPLAYER** · 12-03-10, 10:04 AM

I laid off the Suns too but tailed your Under...thanks! I really feel your onto something here.

**TodaysLocks** · 12-03-10, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

I laid off the Suns too but tailed your Under...thanks! I really feel your onto something here.

The thing I like about PRs is they really force me to be objective.

It's either a play, or it isn't a play. No in between...

**the h man** · 12-03-10, 05:12 PM

Any plays tonight? Its getting near game time

**TodaysLocks** · 12-03-10, 05:51 PM

12/310 PR PLAYS:

Okl/tor UNDER 208

Indy/phoenix UNDER 215

Dallas/Utah UNDER 193

**Hanger** · 12-03-10, 05:58 PM

Like the Indy/Pho Under Looks around 208

Okl/tor like that as well, might be a bit closer tho. Thanks for sharing Lock! BOL tonight.

**panaeolus** · 12-03-10, 07:58 PM

Since we crossed the 0 into a negative, we play the under. And since we crossed the -3 mark, we'd also play the Suns +9.5. (u mean the 3 points we give to home team by -3 mark ?,and we cross that mark every time we take a negative degit -3.5 -4 etch?)
thanks again

**jcook** · 12-03-10, 09:30 PM

what a way to loser the thunder under

**Hanger** · 12-03-10, 09:34 PM

Definitely...

**TodaysLocks** · 12-04-10, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by panaeolus

Since we crossed the 0 into a negative, we play the under. And since we crossed the -3 mark, we'd also play the Suns +9.5. (u mean the 3 points we give to home team by -3 mark ?,and we cross that mark every time we take a negative degit -3.5 -4 etch?)
thanks again

Has nothing to do with home or away. I just use -3 as my filter. If it crosses that I take the dog.

**TodaysLocks** · 12-04-10, 08:28 AM

Last night: 2-1

Sides YTD: 3-4

Totals YTD: (just tracking unders now): 7-3-1

**TodaysLocks** · 12-04-10, 09:34 AM

12/4/10 PR PLAYS:

Charlotte/Philly UNDER 188.5

Houston/Chi UNDER 200.5

**TodaysLocks** · 12-05-10, 05:57 AM

Ytd: 7-5-1

**TodaysLocks** · 12-05-10, 08:22 PM

Late PR play:

Port/LAC under 191.5

**TodaysLocks** · 12-06-10, 12:25 AM

12/3

Totals1-0

Totals YTD: 8-5-1

**ManBearPig** · 12-06-10, 12:33 AM

That was a sharp friggin line

TodaysLocks **Official NBA PR System Thread**

TodaysLocks Official NBA PR System Thread