NBA odds favor Miami Heat in home opener

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  • Chance Harper
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-20-07
    • 788

    #1
    NBA odds favor Miami Heat in home opener
    NBA odds favor Miami Heat in home opener

    There's bound to be a lot of fanfare in tonight's NBA betting matchup between the Heat and Magic in Miami. The Big 3 for the Heat – Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh – will be making their regular season debut in front of the home crowd after going 1-1 on the road this week. Miami opened as a 4-point favorite, but that number has been bet down to three at most offshore sports books.

    It’s been mixed reviews so far for the new-look Miami Heat heading into their home opener on Friday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) against the Orlando Magic.

    Thing is, the perception that the Heat have a lot of work to do – especially on the offensive end – is the best thing for bettors looking to wager Miami early in the season.

    NBA handicappers and oddsmakers alike were interested to see how the public would react to the Heat. How much would bettors have to pay to bet Miami on the NBA betting odds board? Would the hype outpace Miami’s play on the court?
    Surely a lot of squares were expecting the Heat to roll over the opposition. LeBron James is the two-time reigning league MVP and Dwyane Wade is still in the prime of his career. Chris Bosh, the third option, is an All-Star.

    Miami – without even having played a regular season game – took a 1-point fave tag into Boston against the Celtics on Tuesday night. Looking back at Boston’s 88-80 win, it’s ridiculous it was dogged.

    That’s how much weight the hype machine carried rolling into the opener. The Celts were six minutes away from winning it all last season, had a full, healthy roster with the exception of Kendrick Perkins, and were playing at home in front of a charged up crowd.

    More importantly, Boston’s core has played together for three full seasons. Yes, the Celtics added Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal in the offseason, but they’re filling roles around Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Rajon Rondo.

    Miami’s core had yet to play together. As an added handicap, Wade missed most of the preseason with a hamstring injury. Not only is Wade unaccustomed to sharing the offense with James and Bosh, but he’s out of shape.

    After watching the Celts dismantle the preseason favorites to win the NBA title on Tuesday, it’s almost laughable they’d be underdogs in their own building against the Heat. Boston -3 would have been a more realistic spread.

    Thing is, the Celtics’ win was the best thing for sharps because it’ll reduce the price on Miami, even if it’s in the short term.

    The Heat bounced back with a 97-87 victory at Philadelphia against the 76ers on Wednesday night, and cashed their first payday as 8-point chalk. The final score wasn’t indicative of the play, however: The Heat led the Sixers by 26 points at one point only to see the bulk of their lead evaporate in garbage time.

    I was impressed – and surprised – by how much better Wade performed on the second night of a back-to-back after playing so poorly against Boston. Wade led Miami with 30 points and seven rebounds, while LeBron took a back seat and finished with 16 points, seven assists, and six boards.

    Problem is, at this point, the Heat offense is more about taking turns than it its about actual cohesion and fluidity. James and Wade are co-existing more than cooperating, and while that’s enough to do the job against Philadelphia, Orlando, like Boston, is a better beast.

    Outside of developing an actual offense that doesn’t rely solely on the one-on-one skills of its stars, the other question surrounding Miami is its ability to control the paint.

    Namely, do the Heat have anyone, or any series of players to deal effectively with Dwight Howard? We’ll get an answer on Friday. Erik Spoelstra is preaching a defense that collapses to the middle to force the kick to the outside, but the Magic are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the NBA.

    That said, this is Miami’s first game at American Airlines Arena since James and Bosh joined forces with Wade. Emotion alone could carry the Heat to the win.

    On the other hand, the Heat could feel pressure to perform if things don’t go well early. As well as LeBron facilitated the offense at times against the Sixers, he also had nine turnovers and was only a +6. If Miami has to resort to isolation plays to score, that gives Howard plenty of time to set up shop in the paint.

    Oddsmakers opened the Heat as 4½-point faves against the Magic, while the total was listed at 184½.
  • BGboothA
    SBR MVP
    • 08-07-08
    • 4202

    #2
    nice read, thanks for the write up.
    Comment
    • demarino
      SBR High Roller
      • 08-24-10
      • 119

      #3
      i like miami in this one, perhaps the most anticipated home opener in basketball history, and the fact orlando played last night i'm liking the -4 or so points.
      Comment
      • bonduforlife
        Restricted User
        • 08-21-10
        • 1222

        #4
        orlando wins staraight up, Orlando has way too good of chemistry.
        Comment
        • Bradyd
          SBR MVP
          • 12-19-08
          • 1067

          #5
          What should worry Miami backers is not the Magic beating them, it's Miami beating themselves. (Just like they did in Boston) That is just something we can't cap at the moment.
          Comment
          • jbatcha21
            SBR Sharp
            • 09-27-10
            • 271

            #6
            Originally posted by demarino
            i like miami in this one, perhaps the most anticipated home opener in basketball history, and the fact orlando played last night i'm liking the -4 or so points.

            Orlando didn't really play last night. That game was more of a warm-up. They didn't have to try all night as they got a layup or dunk whenever they wished to do so.
            Comment
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