OK, I have been looking over the JM system a lot and trying to figure out a way to not risk AS much and still make a good profit through the course of the season. If you're not familiar with the system then please look in another thread because they're all over the place. The reverse system is exactly the opposite which is buying 3 points on the home team playing against the road team on a 3 game out of conference trip. At first I was going to play both systems simultaneously, but then I realized something. What is the point of making 2 A bets at -170 odds on the same game, just on opposing sides? It's almost guaranteed that I will lose 70c, $70 if I'm shooting for $100 units. The only way to avoid this almost inevitable loss would be if the game falls in that 6 point window, making both A bets winners. I haven't done the research but I'm certain the majority of the A games don't fall in this 6 point window.
So my plan is this. I will sit back and watch the A game, no wager on it whatsoever. Whichever bet covers, I will play the B bet (A bet for me) on the side that didn't cover, either road or home, always buying 3 points as the system states. If that A bet loses, we move onto the B bet, which would be a C if we had played since the 1st game, if it wins, we take the unit profit, and if it loses, we lose a total of 6.29 units. That's the beauty of this, @ -170 odds, only playing a 2 game chase takes 6.29 units, as opposed to the roughly 18 units you would lose playing a regular 3 game chase.
There are roughly 70 games this season that fall under the V1 system, which will be the only games played. In years past, the most losses that I have seen on both sides (reverse and original) is about 2, correct me if I'm wrong, it could be 3. So if you figure about 10 of these series fall in the 6 point window on the A bet, then that leaves us with 60 playable 2 game series. For arguments sake let's say that we incur 4 losses (2 from the original and 2 from the reverse) that will bring a total loss of -25.16 units. The other 56 wins would bring us +56 units. So, a net total profit of 30+ units at the end of the season, and this of course is saying that we actually have that many losses, it is very possible that we have less. Last year the reverse system went 80-0, not a single loss.
If anyone is interested they can follow along, this modification that I have thought up has great potential for profit I believe. I just hate chasing 3 games @ -170. Taking an 18 unit blow is just ridiculous. If I see people are interested I will make it a season long thread. This is about the only thing that keeps me going over here on deployment in Afghanistan, so I'm looking forward to NBA starting up. Here's to a profitable season!
So my plan is this. I will sit back and watch the A game, no wager on it whatsoever. Whichever bet covers, I will play the B bet (A bet for me) on the side that didn't cover, either road or home, always buying 3 points as the system states. If that A bet loses, we move onto the B bet, which would be a C if we had played since the 1st game, if it wins, we take the unit profit, and if it loses, we lose a total of 6.29 units. That's the beauty of this, @ -170 odds, only playing a 2 game chase takes 6.29 units, as opposed to the roughly 18 units you would lose playing a regular 3 game chase.
There are roughly 70 games this season that fall under the V1 system, which will be the only games played. In years past, the most losses that I have seen on both sides (reverse and original) is about 2, correct me if I'm wrong, it could be 3. So if you figure about 10 of these series fall in the 6 point window on the A bet, then that leaves us with 60 playable 2 game series. For arguments sake let's say that we incur 4 losses (2 from the original and 2 from the reverse) that will bring a total loss of -25.16 units. The other 56 wins would bring us +56 units. So, a net total profit of 30+ units at the end of the season, and this of course is saying that we actually have that many losses, it is very possible that we have less. Last year the reverse system went 80-0, not a single loss.
If anyone is interested they can follow along, this modification that I have thought up has great potential for profit I believe. I just hate chasing 3 games @ -170. Taking an 18 unit blow is just ridiculous. If I see people are interested I will make it a season long thread. This is about the only thing that keeps me going over here on deployment in Afghanistan, so I'm looking forward to NBA starting up. Here's to a profitable season!
Silly of me. I understand now... will be keeping an eye on this.
Seth..........