~2010-2011 NBA Plays~

**No coincidences** · 03-06-11, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

(10u) wizards -3.5 (A1)
(10u) rockets -6 (A1)

**Anthonyg7** · 03-06-11, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

(2x) blazers -10.5_got a terrible number but didnt really look at the other games knowing i had 3 booked already. however, i cant ignore the bobcats on btb (5-12 ats) vs the rested blazers.

damn i should have played this one. nice call dex. chances were good with bobcats being terrible on btb.

**sweetjones55** · 03-06-11, 12:27 AM

Great job tonight Dex!

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 12:36 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Great job tonight Dex!

u 2 bro.....you're an animal

**fly fisher** · 03-06-11, 02:07 AM

just got off the road. Did stop by and see my grandpa and gandma in LA. Drank some tequilla and beer since that is what grandpa likes to do. 95 years old and still taking shots of tequilla, yep I have a hard time keeping up with him, but can't quit if he doesn't. Anyway, thanks for the picks today, what a sweet feeling to check the games after driving and visiting for the day and see that we all won. Thanks again man.

**MrSink** · 03-06-11, 04:08 AM

sweep

**7secondsOrLess** · 03-06-11, 05:23 AM

dexters lab

**Smogs** · 03-06-11, 05:42 AM

what a night

**skaterplayer808** · 03-06-11, 05:51 AM

dexter, how you feeling about lakers tomorrow? i'm thinking i just wanna do one play tomorrow for all the money, but can't decide between lakers/spurs. was also checking out the bulls/heat game, but i'm worried the heat might actually do good this time

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

Sunday 3/6:

(2.5x) lakers +2.5
(2x) suns +6
(3x) grizzlies +6.5

i played LA skaterplayer

**GTS925** · 03-06-11, 07:48 AM

Dexter, why do you like LA?

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-06-11, 07:49 AM

Good job last night, dex. I got skullfukked.

Why do you like the grizz?

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by GTS925

Dexter, why do you like LA?

-LA is playing really well right now
-early movement points to LA
-spurs have won the first 2 games this season vs la - time for la to get their first win

**GTS925** · 03-06-11, 07:56 AM

Good points, thanks!

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Good job last night, dex. I got skullfukked.

Why do you like the grizz?

-memphis won outright in dal this year
-memphis is 5-3 ats as road dogs of 6.9-9 pts
-memphis is 9-0 ats off an upset loss a fav
-dallas is 4-8 ats as home favs of 6.5-9

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-06-11, 08:16 AM

That was on the first week of the season. Dallas has been rolling lately and Memphis played really bad against NOH, I watched that game.

I think DAllas can easily win by more than 7 but GL to you. Like LA also but I'm ice cold.

BL · 03-06-11, 08:38 AM

memphis may win today. They will lose big tomorrow though

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

That was on the first week of the season. Dallas has been rolling lately and Memphis played really bad against NOH, I watched that game.

I think DAllas can easily win by more than 7 but GL to you. Like LA also but I'm ice cold.

when dont you like dallas? lol

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by BL

memphis may win today. They will lose big tomorrow though

i dont know about losing big at home.....memphis is a good team on btb

**gv12** · 03-06-11, 09:28 AM

good luck today dexter

**fly fisher** · 03-06-11, 11:15 AM

well getting ready to head to the cruise ship, but don't leave the dock till 4 PM so will be able to check on the laker game. I ended up taking lakers at +2.5 and on the ML. Go Lakers..... get us this win.

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-06-11, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by BL

memphis may win today. They will lose big tomorrow though

Dallas will lose like against the Sixers right?

Originally posted by Dexter

when dont you like dallas? lol

Thrusday on NY

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 01:00 PM

(2x) bulls +5.5

**suicidekings** · 03-06-11, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

That was on the first week of the season. Dallas has been rolling lately and Memphis played really bad against NOH, I watched that game.

I think DAllas can easily win by more than 7 but GL to you. Like LA also but I'm ice cold.

I like the Mavs here as well. The first loss to the Grizz was super early and by one point. The second loss was in Dirk's first game back from injury in which he wasn't 100% healthy and he got T'd up and ejected from the game. This was during their losing streak in January. So even though the Grizz lead the season series, I don't read heavily into the previous games when looking at this one.

**Rolo1984** · 03-06-11, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

-LA is playing really well right now
-early movement points to LA
-spurs have won the first 2 games this season vs la - time for la to get their first win

Hope you dont base your picks on reasons like this

**Rolo1984** · 03-06-11, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

-memphis won outright in dal this year
-memphis is 5-3 ats as road dogs of 6.9-9 pts
-memphis is 9-0 ats off an upset loss a fav
-dallas is 4-8 ats as home favs of 6.5-9

Always makes me wonder why bettors use these stats. Completely useless. Absolutely no samplesize. And singling out the 6.9-9 favo. i am pretty sure you can always can come up with stats which backs up your pick

still, statistics is public known information. In an efficient market you hardly can make any money. I think the difference in losing/winning sportsbettors is that winning bettors look at how a team plays, how the matchups are who are hot/not.

**badbyzdmx** · 03-06-11, 01:39 PM

Bulls it is

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by Rolo1984

Hope you dont base your picks on reasons like this

do you have a winning/documented thread for me to tail? you sound really sharp and talented.

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Rolo1984

Hope you dont base your picks on reasons like this

i like revenge angles....

nevermind, i see that you just joined which means you probably created a ghost acct after your thread failed.

mine is failing, but i still have time left. and i dont just base my plays on stats that you referred to. im more of a situational bettor on the very large plays i make.....bottom line, i look at all factors...

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by Rolo1984

Always makes me wonder why bettors use these stats. Completely useless. Absolutely no samplesize. And singling out the 6.9-9 favo. i am pretty sure you can always can come up with stats which backs up your pick

still, statistics is public known information. In an efficient market you hardly can make any money. I think the difference in losing/winning sportsbettors is that winning bettors look at how a team plays, how the matchups are who are hot/not.

yeah 10-15 games is no samplesize. you can go create an algo prop model using samplesizes from 2008 when players were on different teams.

everything is public known information genius. do you have inside info to share with us mr. sharpie?

i want to see you start an nba thread from now till the end of the nba season. even though only about 40% of the year is left, its a good enough sample size to see how good you are.

**Rolo1984** · 03-06-11, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

yeah 10-15 games is no samplesize. you can go create an algo prop model using samplesizes from 2008 when players were on different teams.

everything is public known information genius. do you have inside info to share with us mr. sharpie?

i want to see you start an nba thread from now till the end of the nba season. even though only about 40% of the year is left, its a good enough sample size to see how good you are.

Yup, all information is public. What i meant is that what i just read you based your pick on the statistical information. Now you say you do more situational analysis. This is a very valid point. I think with situational analysis you can win but i missed that in the reason for, for example, the memphis pick. i only saw the very specific ATS spreads.

So i ask some hard questions. If i make a mistake you can tell me. What is just lame is your condescending tone you use in all of your responses. Like I am not allowed to ask any hard questions. Before you do all kinds of allegations (ghost account) maybe you can spent more time on the content of my post instead of spending most effort in insulting me. Personally, i dont care i just think it is a shame because you have some much more knowledge about NBA then I will ever have (prolly i know 0.1% what you know). I am just learning and asking the questions to know what moves you but when I see something, which i think does not make much sense i will tell that too.

By the way i dont have a ghost account. To be more precize i follow others when I think I the proper analysis. I am betting on soccer. just looking for profitable angles. So i will not open any NBA topics since I do not possess the skill to do any picks, not even close but i ask the hard question. Something which is not allowed in your topic it seems

Too bad since I have no bad intentions. I, personally like when people ask me hard question about soccer picks i make. keeps me sharp and might help me to find thinking erros.

Anyway gl

**Dexter** · 03-06-11, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by Rolo1984

Yup, all information is public. What i meant is that what i just read you based your pick on the statistical information. Now you say you do more situational analysis. This is a very valid point. I think with situational analysis you can win but i missed that in the reason for, for example, the memphis pick. i only saw the very specific ATS spreads.

So i ask some hard questions. If i make a mistake you can tell me. What is just lame is your condescending tone you use in all of your responses. Like I am not allowed to ask any hard questions. Before you do all kinds of allegations (ghost account) maybe you can spent more time on the content of my post instead of spending most effort in insulting me. Personally, i dont care i just think it is a shame because you have some much more knowledge about NBA then I will ever have (prolly i know 0.1% what you know). I am just learning and asking the questions to know what moves you but when I see something, which i think does not make much sense i will tell that too.

By the way i dont have a ghost account. To be more precize i follow others when I think I the proper analysis. I am betting on soccer. just looking for profitable angles. So i will not open any NBA topics since I do not possess the skill to do any picks, not even close but i ask the hard question. Something which is not allowed in your topic it seems

Too bad since I have no bad intentions. I, personally like when people ask me hard question about soccer picks i make. keeps me sharp and might help me to find thinking erros.

Anyway gl

for the memphis play, i do not have any situational analysis. if i did, i probably would have went 5-10u.
the laker game i did have a situational analysis. a revenge angle for the lakers who have not beaten the spurs this year. that changed today.

you did not ask me 1 question. you made comments which to me insinuated you know how to win at nba betting.

i will accept criticism from members i know are legit cappers, and i just dont know you.

you're more then welcome to come question a writeup i may do, but you did not come in here today doing that.

**QUEST001** · 03-06-11, 05:42 PM

Keep up the good work Dex I love your reasoning when capping games. Agree with your plays except for Dallas. I got Dallas -6

**Rolo1984** · 03-06-11, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

for the memphis play, i do not have any situational analysis. if i did, i probably would have went 5-10u.
the laker game i did have a situational analysis. a revenge angle for the lakers who have not beaten the spurs this year. that changed today.

you did not ask me 1 question. you made comments which to me insinuated you know how to win at nba betting.

i will accept criticism from members i know are legit cappers, and i just dont know you.

you're more then welcome to come question a writeup i may do, but you did not come in here today doing that.

you are right i did not put my posts in the form of a question. Well i asked you the question about the revenge angle. Since I hardly believe this is factor in almost all games in any sports. They always tell beforehand they want revenge but the matter of a fact; it's just a new game. All sportsman want to win they have to, to feed their egos. So i wonder if you really use this as an important element for a pick. Seems like a valid question

Additionally, the post afterwards I was just being a pain in the ass about overrating such stats and how you can manipulate stats to back up your pick. Not saying you did but information like this can lead to a misleading basis for a pick. That is just my view on it especially with small samples. Not that samples can get very big, since teams change during a year and even momentum changes. Just wanted to point out that such series can absoluley have no meaning when you talk about 5-10 events.

Anyway, still no reason to personally insult me. Rather ignore me if you dont like me or what i am saying. Again I am absolutely no expert. I have a couple of picks where i followed you especially your big plays.

It is nice that you have your own topic and i appreciate it that you do this. variance is huge so the fact you are down for NBA season does not tell me anything can be just variance. If you get out there you can get burned. But who cares anyway? The one who doesnt try will never succeed

gl

**david09** · 03-06-11, 06:30 PM

Laker Won.... Thanks Dexter