Totals Handicapping

[Samzilla]

Hey,

I've finally found some stats that give a team's Pace, Off. Efficiency and Def. Efficiency. So how do I use these stats in handicapping totals?

In general, are there any resources out there (books, posts here on sbr,etc.) that get into handicapping nba totals. Or is there anyone willing to impart some wisdom? I've had a hard time finding quality information regarding totals.

Thanks.

-Sam

[Toples]

not sure aobut those numbers....

NBA totals are the hardest totals to cap of all sports....(my own experience)
i can give you few Tips though :
if teams are not rested (i.e. play 2 nights in a row) you should be looking for OVER.
if both teams are well rested (i.e. had at least 2 nights off) you should be looking for UNDER.
This is just an angle that needs to be considered, you cant get an egde solely at resting factor of course.

Watch for O/U streaks, BUT dont bet the OVER streak if teams have high FG% (like 50 and up) in last game - it usually goes UNDER then.
Also low FG% in last game will make them score more in next...


Hope this helps some

[Sawyer]

Sam, I strongly recommend to focus on individual player stats as well. If you believe you found a good way to handicap totals, (Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency etc), test it and give it a shot. I strongly suggest to test it (and backtest if possible) over 200-300 plays. It will be a good sample. Good results over short period (30-50 plays) may turn cold on the long haul.

Topless,

NBA Totals are the easiest in my opinion. MLB Totals can be tough because you don't know which relief pitchers will play in last innings, LoL.

[Wilforth]

Sam, I strongly recommend to focus on individual player stats as well. If you believe you found a good way to handicap totals, (Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency etc), test it and give it a shot. I strongly suggest to test it (and backtest if possible) over 200-300 plays. It will be a good sample. Good results over short period (30-50 plays) may turn cold on the long haul.

Topless,

NBA Totals are the easiest in my opinion. MLB Totals can be tough because you don't know which relief pitchers will play in last innings, LoL.

That's what I think too.

[Bluehorseshoe]

MLB Totals can be tough because you don't know which relief pitchers will play in last innings, LoL.

You do though. If a team uses one of their better relievers two days in a row, they're more than likely not using him a third.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper gives some good tips. Also, look at the APBR website for bball stat junkies.

[sweetjones55]

A good thing to look at is previous totals of two teams playing each other and the total for that night. Say the Heat and Pacers last 5 games have had a total of an average of 205 and all 5 games have gone over. If that game that night total is 198 then you have to ask yourself, what is going on here? Why is the total 7 points lower despite 5 OVERS in the last 5 games. You should be looking to take the UNDER in this game. It's surprising but you see cases like this all the time in the NBA.

[sweetjones55]

Another big thing in handicapping totals is knowing that in a game where you expect a blowout, ie Heat vs Nets this year, and you are considering the OVER, you will be better served to take the 1H OVER and not the full game OVER most of the time. Why? Because in blowouts there is usually very little scoring in the last 3 minutes. The Heat will probably be holding the ball down to the last second of the shot clock and taking desperation shots. I've made tons of mistakes in my past in not considering all my options when taking an OVER.

[sweetjones55]

Make sure you look at hoopsstats.com to see what teams average/giveup in every quarter in a game to know if there is more value on taking a 1Q, 1H, or full game team total. Just click on a team and on the far right you will see BY QUARTER, click that.

[natasselur]

I used to hang in the top strip clubs in a big city and sure enough, when I saw certain players in VIP all night, they played like shit the next night, my personal way to pick unders, when the stars are being banged all night by young hos I KNOW, I know they gonna be drained the next day, I am

LOL

[Diesel79]

I think its easier to pick team totals than game totals...

[sweetjones55]

I used to hang in the top strip clubs in a big city and sure enough, when I saw certain players in VIP all night, they played like shit the next night, my personal way to pick unders, when the stars are being banged all night by young hos I KNOW, I know they gonna be drained the next day, I am

LOL

HAVE to look for player props (UNDER) here to use this to your advantage. It gives you a MUCH bigger edge than just taking the UNDER on the full game.