John Morrison 2010 NBA

[J.M. Disciple]

To answer the question to who ever asked about how much to wager with a $500 bankroll. The answer to that question is:

1) do not risk more than 25% of your bankroll on any series or you will be sure to bust more than likely.
2) always buy 3pts.
3) DO not bet on A wagers only B and C

Example of $500 bankroll:
$500 x .25 = $125
there for if your buying 3pts you should wager:

B: $34 to win $20
C: $91.80 to win $54
Total Risk: $125.80

Unit size = $20

So i would suggest betting to win 1 unit for now or $20 until your bankroll gets bigger. I would probably do this until you reach $750 then you could start betting to win $30 each series. Remember this is only on B and C though, so a 2 game chase not a 3 game chase.

BOL to you.

Also with this bankroll you should follow SBP original and updated version. It will boost your bankroll very fast.

[J.M. Disciple]

Possible B bet tomorrow on Memphis +1 after buying 3pts? I know they won the A but just basing this off my limited research. I'll probably wait for last year to be back tested before i start doing this. Please someone back test it for me and let me know. Points will be given.

[fotzan]

What is SBP another system...I feel confused and I think I'll stick to jm

[touch04]

Good stuff wilba

Wilba, I am from Brisbane and really appreciate the input from you, JM Disciple and the rest of the guys.
Really appreciated.
Where abouts in OZ are you?
Just curious that's all.

thanks dude!

but you are not disagreeing with me at all! I said right at the start of above post that I really can't say one way or another what is better for a labby, I really have no evidence one way or another for buy/not buy 3 pts with a labby as to which one would be more profitable. Profitability of labby's are very difficult/near impossible at times to backtest, as there is no concrete rules in the way to use them. Plus you have to timestamp all the separate series to backtest this system with a lab - it would be a nightmare, Im not even gonna try!

My gut feeling would be that probably both ways (buy or not buy) would both work well with a labby. I doubt buying the 3 points would be much better in this case, if at all. But what I am quite sure about is that both ways with a lab would show decent profit anyway.

[fotzan]

I found the site of SBP and I also found the .pdf of bookie buster . If you intersted in you can download it from the following link http://hotfile.com/dl/95729739/95a56...uster.pdf.html
I will be glad to give some points I am broke...

[fotzan]

I know that there is a forum of SBP in SBR forum but it is not so active. Is the SBP a book of advice and chase systems like John Morrison's one? Is it a software or an advice site that sends you picks that you are supposed to play in certain way of pounding wagers? Is it better tha Jm's ?
I have heard that it increases your bank roll rapidly....But you take more risks

[fotzan]

Another question Is there any different adress that I should upload things? I have hotfile.com as the best and you can download the uploaded item easily but you have to wait a little if you don;t have a premium account

[Wallco99]

Possible B bet tomorrow on Memphis +1 after buying 3pts? I know they won the A but just basing this off my limited research. I'll probably wait for last year to be back tested before i start doing this. Please someone back test it for me and let me know. Points will be given.

Here is my research, take out of it what you like. By now you know I am betting all dogs @ -110. Memphis did not cover [A] bet ATS, but did cover with buying 3 points. This would still be an official [B] bet for me, though JM calls his series over. Since this system has lost the same amount of games as JM system, this means that any time a team has won [A] bet with buying and did not cover ATS, one of the next two bets covered ATS. So if they cover ATS, they will cover buying 3. That means up to this point in season, it is 100%. I only have 4 losses to date, they also happen to be the same four loses as JM. The only difference is, that sometimes, like now, it takes me an extra bet to get my win. I did research on this for a different reason than you asked, but the result I got actually would be an answer to your question. If Memphis would have covered ATS, I wouldn't have results for you, because my research stopped after a win. So if they won [A] bet ATS, I wouldn't know record of [B] bet, because I wouldn't have placed any. This could be an example of one guy playing one system helping a guy playing another system, to both bet on the same team for two different reasons with same good result. Hope this helps somewhat.

[SilkBC]

JOHN MORRISON ROAD SYSTEM
FROM: November 1st through January 4th

Rounding the B and C wagers which you are flat betting to say $100 at -170 odds.

OVER 100 SERIES

Flat betting $100 to win $58.82
AT 68%
32 TIMES YOU LOSE $100 = $3200
68 TIMES YOU WIN $58.82 = $3,999.76
EQUALS PROFIT = $799.76 ONLY ABOUT 8 UNITS
OR A ROI OF 7.9% ($799.76 PROFIT / $10,000 INVESTMENT)

I have only been tracking NBA this year since Dec 31 (v1 only) so I only have 13 games tracked, but I have been keeping track of the results from flat-betting the appropriate line (mostly ATS, but when appropriate the ML as well when the spread is -3 or "higher)

I would also be up around 8 units (this is for A, B, and C), so my small sample agrees with yours.

Anyone have any data going back further?

-SilkBC

[SilkBC]

Just an FYI

I have two labby/systems set up for these plays...

Knicks fall under my regular NBA ststem and will be a A Bet tonite

JW, just a question about your two-line labby. Let's say you have won the "A" bet on a new line, so it now looks like this:

X - 5 - 5 - X
5 - 5 - 5 - 5

Let's say you lose your next "A" bet at odds of -110, risking $11 to win $10. You spread 65% of the $11 ($7.15) evenly along the 2nd line, making it:

6.79 - 6.79 - 6.79 - 6.79

How do you distribute the remaining $3.85 on the top line? Does it become:

3.46 - 3.46 - 3.46 - 3.46

or does become:

X - 6.93 - 6.93 - X

Thanks! :-)

-SilkBC

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA system:
01/09/2011 Cleveland @ Phoenix - V1, B bet - WIN
01/09/2011 Sacramento @ Toronto - V1, A bet - WIN

V1record so far (finished series): 25-2
(A): 10-17
(B): 12-5
(C): 3-2
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10

V2 record so far (finished series): 15-1
(A): 11-5
(B): 2-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 15-16
(B): 13-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07

Next JM's plays:
01/12/2011 New Jersey @ Phoenix - V1, A bet
01/12/2011 Dallas @ Indiana - V3, A bet

[MakeItRain14]

Thanks for everyones helpful inputs.

[hagball52]

Hey krzychu threw you some points. Appreciate the posting of the records and the accuracy. I have all the info on my spreadsheets but to lazy to sort it and total it. You make it easy. Thanks.

Looks like I over did it on the points again. Just keep 'em, appreciate the work.

[JamalCrawford]

any "crushers" today?

[chilidog]

yah, it's in the service plays thread

[Wilba]

I wish that I could play solaman's system - he's definitely kicking ass. I just usually can't be around the computer to make the 2H bets when needed. oh well.

ya same for me Chili - living in Aus, when the NBA games are on is always between 9am-5pm over here, so Im always at work! Sounds like a great system if you are available at HT's to jump on the lines when required

[Wilba]

Wilba, I am from Brisbane and really appreciate the input from you, JM Disciple and the rest of the guys.
Really appreciated.
Where abouts in OZ are you?
Just curious that's all.

well thanks mate! Always appreciate nice feedback, let's me know that my efforts aren't wasted!

I am from the cold and lonely ACT, normally summers get quite hot down here, 30-35 deg Celc days certainly not uncommon in summer here, but in recent times it's just been rain, rain, rain. Much the same even up your way I believe? Crazy weather world wide recently

[Wilba]

Good stuff with that research JM disciple. Never thought to check what happens after an early series win. Very interesting to see what the long term trend is - as you said 1/2 season is much too small of a sample size to take anything from. I have a lot on my plate atm but if I get around to checking the results I'll be sure to post em

[fotzan]

JOHN MORRISON ROAD SYSTEM
FROM: November 1st through January 4th




A BETS
30 – 34 = 46.8%


B BETS
45-19 = 70.3%


C BETS
42-22 = 65.6%


TOTAL WIN / LOSS AFTER BUYING 3PTS
117-74


TOTAL WAGERS 192
117 / 192 = 60.9%


TOTAL WINS / LOSS FROM B AND C ONLY
87-41 = 67.9%


This is if you bet all 3 games of the road trip; A B and C. Even
after an A win continue to bet B and C. Do not chase just flat
bet each one.




*you only need 63% to break even at -170 odds buying 3pts.
*spread sheet shows all the wins and losses.

*I did my research based on the closing lines at:

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2010-2011/team404302.html


*note could of been a few more wins / losses based on earlier spreads.



Some other Math you might find interesting:
Rounding the B and C wagers which you are flat betting to say $100 at -170 odds.


OVER 100 SERIES

Flat betting $100 to win $58.82
AT 68%
32 TIMES YOU LOSE $100 = $3200
68 TIMES YOU WIN $58.82 = $3,999.76
EQUALS PROFIT = $799.76 ONLY ABOUT 8 UNITS
OR A ROI OF 7.9% ($799.76 PROFIT / $10,000 INVESTMENT)



So for every $100 you wager you can expect a profit if you only bet B and C, flat betting, of $7.90.



Just trying to help you stick a few extra bucks in your pocket
*remember this is over a small sample size. You all are welcome to back test last years results and I am very curious to what they are.

By the term "flatbetting" you mean not to buy the 3 points or to stick to the moneyline? I mean use moneyline or handicap spread offered by any sportsbook?

[J.M. Disciple]

By the term "flatbetting" you mean not to buy the 3 points or to stick to the moneyline? I mean use moneyline or handicap spread offered by any sportsbook?

I thought I made it pretty clear with the -170 and $100 to win $58. -170 = buying 3pts.

Flat betting just means you are not chasing. So betting any team that is on the road for 3 consecutive games, buying 3pts at the closing spread, and betting $100 to win $58 each game, you would be up around $800 so far this season.

[Kev the Brit]

Fotzan, flat betting means that you risk the same amount of units on every bet, regardless of whether the previous bet wins or loses. You can play the ML, play the spread and buy, or not buy, points. In all cases, you risk the same amount of units. The risk is flat.

In JMD's example, he is flat betting $100 (every game) on the spread and buying 3 points every time.

hope this helps

[cmdyrds]

tps today.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-plays/885875-tps-1-11-a.html#post8309603

[BetaB]

JW, just a question about your two-line labby. Let's say you have won the "A" bet on a new line, so it now looks like this:

X - 5 - 5 - X
5 - 5 - 5 - 5

Let's say you lose your next "A" bet at odds of -110, risking $11 to win $10. You spread 65% of the $11 ($7.15) evenly along the 2nd line, making it:

6.79 - 6.79 - 6.79 - 6.79

How do you distribute the remaining $3.85 on the top line? Does it become:

3.46 - 3.46 - 3.46 - 3.46

or does become:

X - 6.93 - 6.93 - X

Thanks! :-)

-SilkBC

Dude, labby like that will never work. The idea behind labby is that you increase you stake after lose(chasing) and you line can never drop below the initial number of 5-5-5-5. You do not redistribute line to 4 number:

line 1: x-5-5-x
if win x-x-x-x and line clear start a new line 5-5-5-5 again.
if lose x-5-5-x-10, the next play will be 16.5(to win 15@-110). After a win your line would be x-x-5-x-x and this line is clear, starting a new line 5-5-5-5 rinse and repeat.

[Wallco99]

I started a JM NHL thread if anyone cares, he is 30-0 so far this season. I've been in on 23 of the victories. Lot more [A] bet winners than in NBA. However, the odds are higher. Don't worry, this will be my last mention of this in this thread. Go to:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-handicapping/885997-john-morrison-2010-11-nhl-thread.html

[JamalCrawford]

hi, can someone post a link to the whoever posts those "crushers?" thanx and i'll give some points your way

[stevex]

Jamal, just go to the Services Play section and you'll see a 'CRUSHER (current date)' post everyday and just play those picks....

[cmdyrds]

I started a JM NHL thread if anyone cares, he is 30-0 so far this season. I've been in on 23 of the victories. Lot more [A] bet winners than in NBA. However, the odds are higher. Don't worry, this will be my last mention of this in this thread. Go to:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-han...hl-thread.html

el captain has a thread going for the past couple of years.

[Wallco99]

el captain has a thread going for the past couple of years.

So I've been told, sorry, didn't know it by his thread name. Mine is strictly JM v1 plays, seems to be his only profitable system.

[Wallco99]

el captain has a thread going for the past couple of years.

So I've been told, sorry. Mine is for JM V1 plays only, this seems to be his only profitable system. V2 is getting crushed.

[MakeItRain14]

Is there a v1 today wallCo?

[Wallco99]

Is there a v1 today wallCo?

Two actually

Calgary [A] : + 1 1/2
Vancouver [A] : M/L

[J.M. Disciple]

Two actually

Calgary [A] : + 1 1/2
Vancouver [A] : M/L

El Captain list all this V1 and v2 plays. V2 is down 100+ units right now. Def should only follow V1. I do not know the current win rate for A B or C and i know its 30-0, but you have to risk some where around 50+ units in hockey because of the juice at times. I rather just bet on C when it goes that far.

[J.M. Disciple]

tps today.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-pl...ml#post8309603

I answered it... sorry for late reply slept in today

[J.M. Disciple]

Ok Here are todays bets

TPS: Cleveland +18 (after buying 3pts) [A Bet] vs Lakers

SBP original: Portland Trail blazzers -3.5 [A] vs NYK (you might have to buy 1pt cause spread rose)

SBP Updated: Minnesota +6 [b] vs San Antonio

Crusher: Basektball: NCAA Kent State -8 [b] vs bowling green
NHL: Washington -135 [b] over Florida.
Football: Nothing

JM: Nothing

Good Luck everyone.

[MakeItRain14]

Thanks wallco.. But I missed them, was busy washing the car