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It doesn't look like there will be a TPS bet today. Some ML are close at +450 but not close enoughComment -
Chase 110
2010-11 System to date: 63-0
System Rules can be found in post #4475
System Backtest can be found in post #4734
(2/25/11) Washington (+15½) (A) – Win
(2/25/11) Atlanta (+3) (A) – Win
(2/25/11) New Jersey Nets (+11) (A) - Win
(A) 38-25
(B) 15-10
(C) 7-3
(D) 3-0
Next game:
(2/26/11) Boston @ L.A. Clippers (A)Comment -
Chase 110 - Plays for 2/26/11
2010-11 System to date: 63-0
System Rules can be found in post #5000
System Backtest can be found in post #5000
Boston @ L.A. Clippers (+7½) (A)
** We have hit 11 straight (A) bets. Let's keep it going.**Comment -
Wallco.
Just want to say thanks for the help yesterday.
I followed the tips and won 4 bets on the NBA matches. I hope it will continue this way.
Btw. Please read #4967.
Thanks.Comment -
I can answer your question now. Yes, they were 300% sure wins on those three games yesterday.Comment -
SportsBettingChamp.com NBA Betting System with v2.0 & v3.0 Update
Here’s the NBA betting system in detail. As long as you strictly follow my betting guidelines below, you will be winning almost all of your NBA bets.
In a nutshell, you will be betting that one team is going to win at least one game against the spread in an 3-game away series where all three of their opposing teams are from the opposite conference. This is a bet that you will win more than 97% of the time.
Before I go into detail on how to make the bets, I will go over the money management system. There are only three bet values you should stick to: Bet A; Bet B; and Bet C.
Bet A = Your beginning bet. You can, for example, set your beginning bet at $100 when you first start out.
Bet B = In case Bet A fails, you make bet B to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A, plus any profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A was $100, your Bet B can be $250.
Bet C = In case Bet B fails, you make bet C to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A plus Bet B, plus profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A plus Bet B was $350, your Bet C can be $650.
There is no Bet D, or E, or anything thereafter. If you lose Bet C, you lose the bet.
However, do not be concerned, because losing a Bet C is something that will almost never happen. I’ll talk more about that later. Here’s the betting system:
1. Check the NBA schedule and mark down any series where one team will be playing at least 3 consecutive games on the road (away from home) versus a team on a different conference.
2. For the team that will be playing 3 or more consecutive games on the road with a different conference, make a bet A for the team on the road on its first day by buying 3 points.
3. If you lose bet A, make bet B on the next day for the same team, buying 3 points.
4. If you lose bet B, make bet C on the next day for the same team, buying 3 points.
A good place to check which conference a team belongs to is here.
One exception is to never bet on a team that is either the best or worst on the road. If your team has the worst road record in the league, then you should pass on that series due to the higher risks involved. On the other hand, if your team has the best road record in the league, then Vegas would often set the line too high, so it’s best to pass on that series as well.
Also, check up on the injuries before making a bet. If your team has its best player injured, then you should just pass on that series, regardless of any injuries there may be
on the other team. The best place to check to see who’s the best player on your team is here. On that page, click on “Efficiency” and then the “Show Stats” button. This page lists out the best players in the NBA in terms of their efficiency. The first player to be ranked for your team in the Efficiency ranking would generally be that team’s best player.
If you are unfamiliar with betting, then below are some screenshot instructions of how to go about placing your wager at BetUs (http://sportsbettingchamp.com/betus):
Just follow the instructions above by first clicking on “Sportsbook” at the top of the screen- then “Basketball” on the left side of the screen - then click on “Game” under the NBA section.
On the next page is where you select your team. For example, let’s say that you want to buy 3 points for the Cleveland Cavaliers in their game versus the Boston Celtics, you would need to do as follows:
On the next page is where you get to buy points. Just follow the instructions in the screenshot below to buy points:
Finally, it’s time to set your wager amount:
If you do not understand what buying points mean, let me explain: Each game that you wager on will have a point spread. For example, in the Houston vs Dallas game that you see on the screenshot above, the spread is +5 for Houston and and -5 for Dallas. If you bet on Houston +5, it means that Houston can lose the game by 4 points to Dallas, and you will still win the bet. If you bet on Dallas -5, it means that Dallas must beat Houston by 6 points or more for you to win the wager. Now, if you buy 3 points for Houston, that would bring the spread to +8 instead of +5. This means that now you will still win the bet even if Houston loses to Dallas by 7 points. Similarly, if you buy 3 points for Dallas to bring the spread to -2, it would mean that they can now win by only 3 points or more and you will still win your wager.
Now, I want to give you an example from the 2006-07 NBA season to make sure you’re able to follow the betting method. On 3/9/07, the Detroit Pistons started a road trip with their first road game versus the Denver Nuggets. Their next game was also road game versus the LA Clippers on 3/11. On 3/13 they had another road game versus Seattle.
This means that Detroit had three consecutive games on the road versus three teams of a different conference. Therefore, on 3/9/07, you would bet on the Detroit Pistons to beat the Nuggets on the spread, and buying 3 points on top of the spread, starting with a $100 bet (or Bet A). On 3/9, Detroit did beat Denver, therefore you have won bet A. Stop at this point and do not make any more bets in this series. Move on to the next one.
But what if Detroit lost to Denver on 3/9/07? Then, on the day of their next game on the road (3/11) versus the LA Clippers, you’ll make a bet for Detroit on the spread again, and buying 3 points, this time with a $250 (or Bet B) to make up for the loss you’ve suffered yesterday, as well as to win a profit.
If Detroit were to lose again on 3/11 versus the Clippers, then on 11/13 bet $650 (or Bet C) on Detroit on the spread, and buying 3 points in their game versus Seattle to make up for the losses you’ve suffered in the last 2 bets with Detroit, as well as to win a profit.
You must be wondering, what if Detroit lost again on 3/13? Well, then that means you lose the bet. I can assure you, however, you will almost never see this happen. I’m a statistics professional, and I’ve done extensive stat calculations and tests to ensure that my betting formula results in a win almost 100% of the time. In an entire NBA season, as long as you follow my guidelines, your chances of losing Bet B in any series is less than 7%. Your chances of losing bet C in any game is close to 0%. As a matter of fact, it is entirely possible that during some seasons you may go through winning every single betting series without ever even touching the C wager! Bet under these rules and you will profit. Whenever you win a bet in any series, stop and move on to the next one.
When your team is a favorite of -3 points or greater
Here’s an important betting exception to keep in mind: If your team is a favorite of -3 or greater (that means it is expected that your team will beat their opponent by a margin of at least 3 points), then you should make a wager on the Money Line (betting on the Money Line means that you’ll win the bet as long as your team wins the game. No point-buying is necessary). The reason why is because if your team is the favorite, and manages to win the game but at the same time fail to cover the spread, it dramatically increases the risk to continue betting on the same series.
Here is an example from the 2009-10 NBA season to make it clearer for you:
On 12/23/09, the Houston Rockets started a road trip that fell into the betting criteria of the system. The results were as follow:
Date
12/23/08
Opponent
@ Orlando Magic
Result
L 87–102
Spread
L +8.5
12/26/08
@ New Jersey Nets
W 98-93
L -9
12/27/08
@ Cleveland Cavaliers
L 83-108
L +8.5
As you can see, Houston lost the A bet vs Orlando on 12/23. On 12/26, they played the New Jersey Nets and came into the game as a -9 point favorite, which means they are a favorite of -3 or greater. Therefore, you’ll need to bet on the Money Line for your B bet instead of buying 3 points to bring -9 down to -6 (which would have lost you the bet even as Houston won the game, since they only defeated New Jersey by a margin of 5 points).
Alternatively, if you do not wish to have to increase your risk amount by betting on the Money Line when your team is a favorite of -3 or greater, then you can still bet on the point spread, and buy 3 points. But keep in mind: Do not continue betting on the series if you lose a bet that would have otherwise been won on the Money Line.
It’s not very common for a team to be favored by more than 3 points on the road, so rest assured that such a situation like this is not something you’ll encounter often. However, keep in mind that when they do arise, that you bet on the Money Line and not on the point spread. Or if you do bet on the point spread and buy 3 points, that you do not continue betting on the series if your wager does not cover while your team wins the game straight up.
Handling road trips that start in-conference
I recommend that you only start betting on a series if the team’s consecutive 3-game road trip begins immediately after their home game. This also means that if a team is on a 6-game road trip vs. 6 opponents from the opposing conference, then you should only wager on the first 3 games (assuming that they played a home game immediately before starting the road trip).
Now, an exception would be that if a team has been playing road game(s) within their own conference before they start 3 consecutive games vs. 3 opponents from the opposing conference, then you should only treat the 3-game series vs. the opposing conference as eligible for play ONLY if that team has lost ALL of its road games from the beginning of the road trip by more than 3 points against the spread.
To give you an example, here were the Cleveland Cavaliers’ opponents between November 7th to November 14th during the 2008-09 NBA season:
Date
12/21/08
Opponent
@ Oklahoma City
Result
W 102-91
Spread
L -13
12/19/08
@ Denver
W 105-88
W 2
12/17/08
@ Minnesota
W 93-70
W -10
12/13/08
@ Atlanta
L 92-97
L -4
12/12/08
Philadelphia
W 88-72
W -10.5
As you can see, Cleveland played Atlanta (a team from its own conference) before starting a 3-game road trip against 3 consecutive opponents from the opposing
conference (Minnesota, Denver, and Oklahoma City). This means that the 3-game series starting with Minnesota would ONLY be eligible for play IF Cleveland loses to Atlanta against the spread by more than 3 points. The spread for Cleveland in their game vs. Atlanta was -4, and with 3 points added that would make it -1. Since they lost the game to Atlanta by a margin of 5 points (92-97), this means that they did indeed lost against the spread by more than 3 points (as a matter of fact, they lost to the spread by a margin of 6 points: (-1 spread + a -5 points margin loss!)), making the 3-game series they began with Minnesota eligible for play under the system, starting with the A bet.
Note that if you have a larger bankroll, your Bet A amount can start out higher, provided that you have enough in your bankroll to make a Bet B and a Bet C if needed. Similarly, if you have a smaller bankroll, your Bet A amount can be lower. Enjoy!
V2.0 System Update
In order to maximize your NBA winnings, we will get a little less strict on the filter for our 3-game series.
The v1.0 system calls for one team to be on 3 consecutive road games against 3 teams of the opposite conference in order for a play to be eligible.
Now, you may be surprised to know that as long as there are at least 2 teams that are from the opposite conference out of the 3 consecutive road games, then it is enough to make the series to be profitable for play.
Here’s an example from the 2008-09 NBA season with the v2.0 system coming into play:
On October 31st, the Golden State Warriors started a 3-game series on the road against Toronto, New Jersey, and Memphis, respectively. Toronto and New Jersey are teams from the opposite conference of Golden State; while Memphis is in their same conference. However, since at least two teams out of the three are from the opposite conference, this is enough to make the series eligible for play.
You would then make the [A] bet for Golden State on October 31st in their game versus Toronto, and buy 3 points on top of the spread just like you’d normally do. Sure enough, Golden State won on the [A] play. We stop betting on this series at this point.
Basically, everything about the v2.0 system remains the same, except for the fact a series is eligible for play as long as at least 2 out of the 3 teams are from the opposite conference, rather than requiring that ALL 3 teams must be from the opposite conference.
V3.0 System Update
In order to maximize your NBA winnings, we will get less strict on the filter for our 3-game series.
The v2.0 system calls for one team to be on 3 consecutive road games against at least 2 teams of the opposite conference in order for a play to be eligible.
Now, you may be surprised to know that as long as a team is starting a 3-game road trip, it is profitable to play them regardless of what conference their opponent may be in.
Basically, you want to bet on all 3-game road trips with the v3.0 system, with the same betting mechanics as in the original system.
Here’s an example from the 2009-10 NBA season with the v2.0 system coming into play:
On 1/12/10, the LA Clippers started a 3-game series on the road against Memphis, New Orleans, and the LA Lakers, respectively. All 3 of these teams are from the same conference as the Clippers, but that will not matter because in the v3.0 system, we will bet on all 3 game road trips regardless of conferences.
You would then make the [A] bet for the LA Clippers on 1/12 in their game versus Memphis, and buy 3 points on top of the spread just like you’d normally do. Sure enough, the Clippers won on the [A] play. We stop betting on this series at this point.
Basically, everything about the v3.0 system remains the same as the v2.0 system, except for the fact a series is eligible for play as long as it’s the start of a 3-game road trip, regardless of what conferences the opponents may be on.
Comment -
WALLCO!!!!
You are the f.....g MAN right now! Thanks a lot, that was a big help. I'm going to read it a couple of times and then try to translate it to danish for a better understanding.
Also a thanks to J.M. Disciple to advertise for that system.
I ow both of you BIG time right now. If I had 10 point to both of you, then they were throwed away.
Comment -
Better yet, copy and paste it to a word document, and save it on your computer.WALLCO!!!!
You are the f.....g MAN right now! Thanks a lot, that was a big help. I'm going to read it a couple of times and then try to translate it to danish for a better understanding.
Also a thanks to J.M. Disciple to advertise for that system.
I ow both of you BIG time right now. If I had 10 point to both of you, then they were throwed away.Comment -
Starting to learn to use this forum.
Comment -
Most online books offer point buying, however, they don't all offer 3 points. If you are going to play this system (JM NBA) the way it was intended, you will need to find a book that offers 3 points. It is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of a team being (+6), for example, that team would be (+9) when you buy three points. The difference is the odds will no longer be (-110), instead they will be (-170), or more if your book has higher juice. I am not familiar with the online books so I don't know how most of them work. I deal strictly with a private book, who basically lets me do whatever I want, and what limits I want. Good Luck.Comment -
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Chase 110 – Official Rules
Find a team that has lost three consecutive games (both S/U and ATS). Play a four game chase on that team to win (A) (B) (C) or (D). If a team is a favorite in any of the games, play the M/L, if the team is a dog in any of the games play the point line (-110). We do not buy points in this system and we do not care if teams were favorites or dogs in the games before the four game chase starts. The only time we would buy points is if your team is a favorite by 1-3 points, and buying down to (-1/2) is cheaper than the M/L. Other than that, we are always playing M/L and (-110). I use covers.com as official play site. If covers.com has the game listed as a win, then the series is over. You may have had a different line then them and lost the game, if this is the case, the decision is yours whether or not to continue, but the game will be deemed a win at that point. ALL PUSHES ARE SEEN AS A NO-PLAY. We will treat those games as if they were never played and just skip them. So if your (B) bet is a push, your next bet will be a (B) bet. This system has not been back tested for pre-season or playoffs, this is for regular season only.
Bet Structure (for 4 game chase)
Chase 110 is definitely profitable. For each series loss in a four game chase @ (-110), you need 18.44 series wins to be even. In a chase system, assuming your initial wager is 1 unit, if you lose your (A) bet, your (B) bet will be your losses of (A) bet + 1 unit. So if (B) wins, your profit will be 1 unit. Same for (C) and (D). Recoup all previous losses + 1 unit. Any time a series wins, you will have profited 1 unit. So, for example, if my system is 70-0, I would be up 70 units, it can't be more than that, because our game odds are always (-110) or lower, unless you are risking more than one unit per bet. If you lose four consecutive bets: (A) (B) (C) and (D), you cumulative loss will be 18.44 units (assuming all four games were played at (-110) and betting to win one unit (slightly more if there was a M/L in one of the games). Another thing, if (A) (B) (C) or (D) wins, the series is over at that point, and system gets a win, the remaining games in the series do not get played. Here are four examples, winning the (A) bet is obvious, so I will skip that one:
Unit size = $100
Win (B) bet
(A) - Risk 110 to win 100 - Loss (-110)
(B) - Risk 231 to win 210 - Win (+210)
Net result: 210 -110 = +100 (+1 unit)
Win (C) bet
(A) - Risk 110 to win 100 - Loss (-110)
(B) - Risk 231 to win 210 - Loss (-231)
(C) - Risk 485 to win 441 - Win (+441)
Net result: 441 - 231 - 110 =+100 (+1 unit)
Win (D) bet
(A) - Risk 110 to win 100 - Loss (-110)
(B) - Risk 231 to win 210 - Loss (-231)
(C) - Risk 485 to win 441 - Loss (-485)
(D) - Risk 1018 to win 926 - Win (+926)
Net result: 926 - 485 - 231 - 110 =+100 (+1 unit)
Lose (D) bet (series loss)
(A) - Risk 110 to win 100 - Loss (-110)
(B) - Risk 231 to win 210 - Loss (-231)
(C) - Risk 485 to win 441 - Loss (-485)
(D) - Risk 1018 to win 926 - Loss (-1018)
Net result: -1018 - 485 - 231 - 110 = -1844 (-18.44 units)
Series Filters
Head to Head Filter: If a team loses three straight games (ATS and S/U), check that team’s schedule to see who their next four opponents are. If one of these teams is a team that is already being played in Chase 110, skip wagering on the new team until the first team has concluded their series. This is to avoid possibly betting on both sides of a game deep in a series (B-D bets). If at that point, the new team has continued their losing streak, you may then pick up your (A) bet on that team, and begin your four game chase. If two teams qualify at the same time, and are scheduled to play each other at some point in their next four games, the team whose potential four game chase would end sooner will be the play. However, if these two teams are scheduled to face each other in their respective (A) bets, this game will be played, taking the (M/L) on the favorite and (-110) on underdog. There is a chance you can win both ends of the bet, and no chance you can lose both, since one team will win. The risk/reward only seems favorable when teams are facing each other in their (A) bets, all other scenarios are just too risky. You may play all teams that qualify, regardless of who their next four opponents are and just take your chances. However, this isn’t recommended. This filter was created to eliminate a possible (D) bet disaster. The wins and losses for the season will be calculated using this filter.
When to play: Chase 110 will be played from day 1 of regular season. As the season winds down, when a team qualifies for a play (three losses ATS and S/U), make sure that team has at least four games remaining on their schedule. If not, that team doesn’t qualify. Results were based on a four game chase, so less than four games to play would lessen your chances of victory. Basic rule of thumb, if the losing streak starts in the last six games of a season, there is no way that team will qualify. If some pushes occur, it may go back a few more games.
System Backtest (2003-2011)
2010-11(63-0) ** This is as of Feb 25, 2011. Still a month and a half to play.**
(A) 31-25
(B) 15-10
(C) 7-3
(D) 3-0
Total profit : +63 units
2009-10 (88-4)
(A) 63-29
(B) 11-18
(C) 10-8
(D) 4-4
Total profit : +11.5 units
2008-09 (86-6) THE BAD SEASON.Three losses involving large M/L. Same couldhappen inJM sys.
(A) 48-44
(B) 20-24
(C) 13-11
(D) 5-6 (four of these won on next bet, too risky to play).
Total loss : -51 units
2007-2008 (86-3)
(A) 58-31
(B) 18-13
(C) 6-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +30 units
2006-07 (101-1)
(A) 64-39
(B) 23-16
(C) 11-5
(D) 4-1
Total Profit : +77.25 units
2005-06 (92-3)
(A) 61-34
(B) 17-17
(C) 10-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +26 units
2004-05 (80-3)
(A) 56-27
(B) 10-17
(C) 7-10
(D) 7-3
Total Profit : +22.5 units
2003-04 (92-4)
(A) 48-48
(B) 30-18
(C) 10-8
(D) 4-4
Total Profit : +14 units
System created by Wallco99Comment -
Jm plays?Comment -
Post #5000 should be a lot easier for everyone to remember. I have also added bet structure and backtest all in one post. Now it is "one stop shopping" for Chase 110. One rule has been updated. I think it is most profitable to play two teams who face each other in their respective (A) bets. I think we are leaving money on the table with potential to win both sides at low risk, with no chance of losing both sides. With the amount of $ wagered on (B) (C) and (D) bets, I feel this filter still needs to apply for our protection. For the remainder of the season, this new "non filter" will be used in "W" and "L" calculations. We have two wins prior to today, that would have counted under this updated version. I will leave it at 63-0, unless any one thinks I should add in the two (A) bet wins to our totals. I am going to try to investigate our previous years losses to see how damaging playing teams that face each other later in the series actually was, if at all. But for now (A) game head to head only, and forget the rest. Any question ever asked about this system is hopefully answered in there. Just direct any future question to post #5000. P.M. me and let me know what is the proper thing to do with those two wins I mentioned. It doesn't really matter, but I just want to show accurate results. Unlike JM I am adding bets to get us wins, not filtering out losers every time we take a loss. Thanks to everyone and good luck.Comment -
We are not buying points in my system, the (+7 1/2) is the (-110) game lime. That is what we use.
JM NBA - Buy 3 points on dogs, M/L on favorites. (If scared, then buy 3 on favorite)
Chase 110 - Do not buy points. (-110) on dogs, M/L on favorite. (If scared, buy a dog. I mean, an actual DOG).Comment -
Chase 110 - Plays for 2/26/11
2010-11 System to date: 63-0
System Rules can be found in post #5000
System Backtest can be found in post #5000
Boston @ L.A. Clippers (+7 ½) (A)Comment -
Play Clippers (+7 1/2) @ (-110). Please read post #5000. I can't be any clearer than thatComment -
Understod.
Sorry for being a pain in the ass, but remenber I'm danish. I have to understand this 120% clear, before making any bets. I really want this to work, right?
No bad feelings from me.
The writing with you guys the last 2 days has all ready taught me a lot. And really want to learn more. But one step at a time.Comment -
Jm plays today?Comment -
JM: Chi, Dal Bet AComment -
im liking that clippers bet! BOLComment
