John Morrison 2010 NBA

[jcarter8]

I'd rather take Indiana -1 than Houston +7.

[jordanfreak]

i cant believe how horrible and greedy betus.com is they changed the odds of detroit to a spread of -1 now wtf is there problom i think im just gonna have to go with clippers and buy 3 points

[chilidog]

i cant believe how horrible and greedy betus.com is they changed the odds of detroit to a spread of -1 now wtf is there problom i think im just gonna have to go with clippers and buy 3 points

While it is known that betus gives a diff line for JM system bettors (whether you signed up under his affiliate link or not), books move spreads because they want to balance out the action.

Really, if you want to get off of the betus dual line thing, just play the reverse system a few times, buying 3 points on the other side, and you'll be moved right back to regular lines. I'm no longer on the JM lines. The reverse system works just as well as the regular system as well.

[jordanfreak]

While it is known that betus gives a diff line for JM system bettors (whether you signed up under his affiliate link or not), books move spreads because they want to balance out the action.

Really, if you want to get off of the betus dual line thing, just play the reverse system a few times, buying 3 points on the other side, and you'll be moved right back to regular lines. I'm no longer on the JM lines. The reverse system works just as well as the regular system as well.

thanks alot chilidog i was kinda thinking of that myself so you think i should go with clippers and buy 3 points?

[Wilba]

thanks alot chilidog i was kinda thinking of that myself so you think i should go with clippers and buy 3 points?

If u wanna stop being dealt the bogus JM lines then yes you just need to play the other side for a bit. But personally I would wait until next series until playing the other side, and just cut your losses on this series. Switching now could work out nicely for you but its also pretty risky switching to reversing the system half way through a series (especially when the reverse system has already covered when detroit lost the A bet...)

having said that clippers +1 is a very good line that they are offering as they are effectively letting you buy 2 points on the clippers for free (or if you buy to +4 your effectively getting 5 points on the clips for the price of 3)

as always the end decision is up to you, but the one thing I would strongly recommend is to pull all your cash outta betus asap and get a bookmaker that is not a scam (the greek, pinnacle, someone like that)

[COYLO]

how well does the reverse jm do ??

dont suppose anyone has the results from jm's plays from last year??

[jordanfreak]

If u wanna stop being dealt the bogus JM lines then yes you just need to play the other side for a bit. But personally I would wait until next series until playing the other side, and just cut your losses on this series. Switching now could work out nicely for you but its also pretty risky switching to reversing the system half way through a series (especially when the reverse system has already covered when detroit lost the A bet...)

having said that clippers +1 is a very good line that they are offering as they are effectively letting you buy 2 points on the clippers for free (or if you buy to +4 your effectively getting 5 points on the clips for the price of 3)

as always the end decision is up to you, but the one thing I would strongly recommend is to pull all your cash outta betus asap and get a bookmaker that is not a scam (the greek, pinnacle, someone like that)

yea i already bet it at a +4 on clippers what you think are the odds on me winning from your opinion wilba?

[Wilba]

yea i already bet it at a +4 on clippers what you think are the odds on me winning from your opinion wilba?

officially based on past statistics you have a 67% (2 in 3) chance of winning. If you buy 5 points over the long run you win 67% on the time. Certainly not a bad bet, it you ever get skewed odds like that the odds will always be in your favour

[Wilba]

how well does the reverse jm do ??

dont suppose anyone has the results from jm's plays from last year??

Well I can actually provide this because I spent 12 hours last week backtesting it. The results for reverse JM NBA V1 sys over the past TWO seasons (2008/2009 and 2009/2010) are as follows:

when buying 3 points:

A bet 90 wins (63.38 % win rate)
B bet 35 wins (67.31 % win rate)
C bet 12 wins (70.59 % win rate)
series losses = 5

bottom line - when playing to win 100 / series with 3 game chase total profit = $1,950

when not buying any points:

A bet 73 wins (51.41 % win rate)
B bet 39 wins (56.52 % win rate)
C bet 18 wins (60 % win rate)
series losses = 12

bottom line - when playing to win 100 / series with 3 game chase total profit = $3,880

as you can see, over the last two years, both reverse systems were profitable. However not buying the 3 points while playing the reverse system was the most profitable method. Even more profitable was playing buying no points, but if any bet in the series WOULD have covered if buying 3 points, then count the series as a loss (at the A or B level) and move on to the next series.

Today there is a reverse C bet on Atlanta (against Utah) which I am playing. The game has just started though.

A lot of work went into this backtesting so I hope yall appreciate it!

[JW Cash]

Toronto starts a series for me tonight along
with the continuation of Houston and Detroit....

I have Clipps on another system so I may buy a point and try for a middle.....

...to hit the middle would be as sweet as sugar cane candy dipped in dark chocolate......

[jordanfreak]

Well I can actually provide this because I spent 12 hours last week backtesting it. The results for reverse JM NBA V1 sys over the past TWO seasons (2008/2009 and 2009/2010) are as follows:

when buying 3 points:

A bet 90 wins (63.38 % win rate)
B bet 35 wins (67.31 % win rate)
C bet 12 wins (70.59 % win rate)
series losses = 5

bottom line - when playing to win 100 / series with 3 game chase total profit = $1,950

when not buying any points:

A bet 73 wins (51.41 % win rate)
B bet 39 wins (56.52 % win rate)
C bet 18 wins (60 % win rate)
series losses = 12

bottom line - when playing to win 100 / series with 3 game chase total profit = $3,880

as you can see, over the last two years, both reverse systems were profitable. However not buying the 3 points while playing the reverse system was the most profitable method. Even more profitable was playing buying no points, but if any bet in the series WOULD have covered if buying 3 points, then count the series as a loss (at the A or B level) and move on to the next series.

Today there is a reverse C bet on Atlanta (against Utah) which I am playing. The game has just started though.

A lot of work went into this backtesting so I hope yall appreciate it!

i apreciate it for sure you know you stuff pretty well so pretty much what your saying is theres big bucks to be made?

[chilidog]

...to hit the middle would be as sweet as sugar cane candy dipped in dark chocolate......

and then covered with melted marshmallow fluff

[Wilba]

i apreciate it for sure you know you stuff pretty well so pretty much what your saying is theres big bucks to be made?

Decent and reliable money, yes. Not sure I would say big bucks but if you follow the system strictly and use good money management you will always come out on top by seasons end using the reverse system (especially if you don't buy any points)

However note that I also backtested the 'official' JM nba sys and for the official version it is less profitable if you do not buy the points. So don't skimp on buying the points if you play the official sys it is important for that!

Good luck today everyone

[smcc716]

Well I can actually provide this because I spent 12 hours last week backtesting it. The results for reverse JM NBA V1 sys over the past TWO seasons (2008/2009 and 2009/2010) are as follows:

when buying 3 points:

A bet 90 wins (63.38 % win rate)
B bet 35 wins (67.31 % win rate)
C bet 12 wins (70.59 % win rate)
series losses = 5

bottom line - when playing to win 100 / series with 3 game chase total profit = $1,950

when not buying any points:

A bet 73 wins (51.41 % win rate)
B bet 39 wins (56.52 % win rate)
C bet 18 wins (60 % win rate)
series losses = 12

bottom line - when playing to win 100 / series with 3 game chase total profit = $3,880

as you can see, over the last two years, both reverse systems were profitable. However not buying the 3 points while playing the reverse system was the most profitable method. Even more profitable was playing buying no points, but if any bet in the series WOULD have covered if buying 3 points, then count the series as a loss (at the A or B level) and move on to the next series.

Today there is a reverse C bet on Atlanta (against Utah) which I am playing. The game has just started though.

A lot of work went into this backtesting so I hope yall appreciate it!

Are you playing both systems then, Reverse and Original?? If you have two separate books than you could play both and still make a profit correct??

[jordanfreak]

yea good look to the hawks i believe you said

[Wilba]

possible you will get lucky once in a while by playing both sides but in the long run you are just giving money away to your bookie by giving him double juice on one play. When playing both sides, even if you buy 3 points on both sides, you will only hit the middle 6 point margin once out of every 7 plays. The other 6/7 you will lose. These %'s = money down the toilet

Toronto starts a series for me tonight along
with the continuation of Houston and Detroit....

I have Clipps on another system so I may buy a point and try for a middle.....

...to hit the middle would be as sweet as sugar cane candy dipped in dark chocolate......

[jordanfreak]

Decent and reliable money, yes. Not sure I would say big bucks but if you follow the system strictly and use good money management you will always come out on top by seasons end using the reverse system (especially if you don't buy any points)

However note that I also backtested the 'official' JM nba sys and for the official version it is less profitable if you do not buy the points. So don't skimp on buying the points if you play the official sys it is important for that!

Good luck today everyone

but dont you think it would be a bit risky if i went with clippers without buying the point?

[Wilba]

Are you playing both systems then, Reverse and Original?? If you have two separate books than you could play both and still make a profit correct??

yeah I do play both. On the A bet the systems just cancel each other out so you just don't play either side on the A bet. Whichever side does not cover you pick up on the B bet.

the A bets are not worth playing for either system anyway. For JM official system all time the A bet hits 62.9% of the time when buying 3 points, and when buying 3 points you get odds (if your lucky) of -170, or 1.588 decimal.
62.9 * 0.588 - 37.1 = -0.11 units. So for every 100 JM nba V1 A bets you play, on average you lose 0.11 units (so break even basically) So sitting out the A bets for JM nba V1 sys does not cost you a cent. The same applies for sitting out the A bets with the reverse sys, with or without the points.

Both systems become profitable from B bet onwards. Hope this helps

[Wilba]

but dont you think it would be a bit risky if i went with clippers without buying the point?

the clippers is not a reverse system play today. Detroit lost ats on the first game therefore the reverse series for detroit road trip finished

buying the points obviously gives you a higher chance of winning but it is cancelled out by the lower odds you get. Long term it would work out pretty much the same.

[COYLO]

am i right in saying if we play the original jm v1 and it hits on the A bet we should maybe try the reverse jm on the plays that are left??

[chilidog]

am i right in saying if we play the original jm v1 and it hits on the A bet we should maybe try the reverse jm on the plays that are left??

Correct. It works beautifully.

[COYLO]

Correct. It works beautifully.

that played right could yeild some nice profits thanks chillidog.

[COYLO]

has jm's original plays ever swept any of there 3 game seies bets????

[Wilba]

has jm's original plays ever swept any of there 3 game seies bets????

yes of course they have, I spent 12 hours backtesting this to provide the results I posted a few posts earlier! Please refer to them.

[COYLO]

do you have a copy of the plays you could send me??

[Wilba]

"

[COYLO]

i meant last years jm plays sorry

[jordanfreak]

Rockets took it baby and i feel bad for all those that went for pacers

[COYLO]

congrats to houston backers

[Dat Dude]

I'd rather take Indiana -1 than Houston +7.

Congrats to everyone who PLAYS THE SYSTEM! I can't beleive all the B.S. I am reading in this thread. This is the JM Thread so why are there people in here creating reverse plays, and trying to handicap the system on a "which team is better" basis, when the whole theory behind the system is playing ATS (AGAINST THE SPREAD). Your handicap theories are irrelevent with this system. I wish everyone that is not playing the system night in and night with a willingness to STICK TO IT would just leave this thread and start a new one.

Ok there I've said my piece, now lets go Detroit!

[zigomanisinsider]

yea what a fa\*\*ot taking indiana - 1

[chilidog]

Congrats to everyone who PLAYS THE SYSTEM! I can't beleive all the B.S. I am reading in this thread. This is the JM Thread so why are there people in here creating reverse plays, and trying to handicap the system on a "which team is better" basis, when the whole theory behind the system is playing ATS (AGAINST THE SPREAD). Your handicap theories are irrelevent with this system. I wish everyone that is not playing the system night in and night with a willingness to STICK TO IT would just leave this thread and start a new one.

Ok there I've said my piece, now lets go Detroit!

EXACTLY! Very well said. You must stick 100% to the system, regardless of what team is playing, and your opinions on who is going to win. None of that matters, just throw it out the freaking window. Play the system. Win.

[COYLO]

so detroit ml is the play nxt??

[JW Cash]

Toronto starts a series for me tonight along
with the continuation of Houston and Detroit....

I have Clipps on another system so I may buy a point and try for a middle.....

...to hit the middle would be as sweet as sugar cane candy dipped in dark chocolate......

Toronto Hits as expected...actually beats a very talented Orlando
team straight up....

And of Course...Houston brings home the money.....


Gonna be a 3-1 night................ 15-1 in System Wins.....




....or possibly 4-0 if the middle comes thru for the Detroit/Clipps game...

........and ALL without the added expense of buying 3 points......

......sweet......

[thejanitor]

Toronto Hits as expected...actually beats a very talented Orlando
team straight up....

And of Course...Houston brings home the money.....


Gonna be a 3-1 night................ 15-1 in System Wins.....




....or possibly 4-0 if the middle comes thru for the Detroit/Clipps game...

........and ALL without the added expense of buying 3 points......

......sweet......

Congrats. Nice bonus for you tonight with Toronto