John Morrison 2010 NBA

[ghislaine]

K, just trying to get all my ducks in a line here with what systems I'm going to use for MLB. So far I have, but probably won't start wagering on MLB for another 2 weeks or so.

1. MLB CRUSHER
2. G's Picks
3. -150 home favorite systems

hey, where can I find G`s Picks ?? cant seem to find the thread in Service Plays...
thanks !!!

[ken23lau]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/422041-conservative-chase-system-back-season-long-winning-baseball-thread-p133.html

[xanderxxx93]

great night ! thank you guys!

[GGPLAYER]

Looks like this was the theme of the night.

[Wallco99]

Chase 110
2010-11 System to date: 82-0
System Rules can be found in post #5000
System Backtest can be found in post #5000


(4/5/11) Minnesota (+5 ½) (A) – Win
(4/5/11) Utah (+13 ½) (B) - Win

(A) 46-36
(B) 22-14
(C) 8-6
(D) 6-0


Next games:
(4/6/11) Denver @ Dallas Mavericks (A) ** Line not yet posted **

[Wallco99]

that utah game was a thing of beauty, wish i put a little on the ml.

I was going to. My book shuts down money line over 13 points. I could have called him to put it in, but I said hell with it. Should have picked up the phone.

[PanamaKid]

I just couldn't believe that spread. When I saw it, I was like

[teecee]

can't believe how often i see a +13.5 dog win straight up. may have to, starting next season, sprinkle a bit on those dogs moneylines.

[Lee]

any pick for the night?

[Wallco99]

any pick for the night?

Look up!

[kckc07]

picks for tonight?

[PanamaKid]

Mavs are at -5 and -210 on BetUS

[GGPLAYER]

NYK is a JM A bet too.

[Wallco99]

Chase 110 - Plays for 4/6/11
2010-11 System to date: 82-0
System Rules can be found in post #5000
System Backtest can be found in post #5000



Denver @ Dallas Mavericks (M/L) (A)

[Wallco99]

picks for tonight?

Look one post before yours, and read that.

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA system (injury filter and ML filter are not applied):
04/05/2011 Milwaukee @ Orlando- V3, A bet - WIN
04/05/2011 LA Clippers @ Memphis- V3, A bet - WIN
04/05/2011 Sacramento @ Houston- V3, A bet - WIN
04/05/2011 Phoenix @ Chicago- V3, B bet - WIN

V1record so far (finished series): 57-3
(A): 30-30
(B): 22-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 17-14
(B): 5-9
(C): 8-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 65-3
(A): 39-28-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 22-7-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-2-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)
GS 03/18-21

Next JM's plays:
04/06/2011 New York @ Philadelphia- V3, A bet
04/08/2011 Chicago @ Cleveland- V3, A bet

[KingDave101]

I read through the rules of the system today, and I was just curious why Dallas ML is play tonight? Everything I saw in the system only talked about betting on road teams.

Also, the recommended starting amount is 100, is that 100 plus juice or 100 total?

[PanamaKid]

I read through the rules of the system today, and I was just curious why Dallas ML is play tonight? Everything I saw in the system only talked about betting on road teams.

Also, the recommended starting amount is 100, is that 100 plus juice or 100 total?

uh oh... someone doens't know the Wallco system Check out post #5000

[KingDave101]

uh oh... someone doens't know the Wallco system Check out post #5000

Oh I see, there are two different systems explained right around post 5000. I just checked out the first system, thanks for the quick reply.

[Nova0387]

Do you guys see the spurs or Thunder losing at home 2nite?

[Wallco99]

Chase 110 rules are in post #5000

[J.M. Disciple]

I came acrossed my toughest team using Labby. If i was betting Thunder at the beginning of the season the labby lines get Kinda crazy. I chose to bet unders for the teams on the road other wise I will be betting the same game twice, so i think it will be easier to just bet teams on the road to go under using labby. Anyways here is what the Labby line would look like if i was betting every game on thunder at the beginning of the season.

they had 5 overs to start the season followed by 1 under followed by 5 more overs

5 5 5 5 L
5 5 5 5 10 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 + (25 )
Compounded after 4th loss


New Line compounded


20 20 20 20 + (40)


new line compounded
30 30 30 30 finally a win!
So I cross out 1st and last # which leaves me with 30 30
so I divide this into
15 15 15 15
followed by 5 more losses
15 15 15 15 L + $30 compounded
22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 + 45 L compounded


34 34 34 34 L +68 compounded


51 51 51 51 L +102 compounded


76 76 76 76 + 152 compounded


114 114 114 114 followed by 2 under wins which clears this line

so even though they went over first 10 out of 11 games which game me 10 out of 11 losses to start the season, it only took 2 games to get all my money back and biggest bet would of been $228. Not too bad. Rest of the NBA teams get no where close to that.

[J.M. Disciple]

Do you guys see the spurs or Thunder losing at home 2nite?

When in doubt i think best option is not to bet the game! If you do not have an edge or a clear cut pick why bet?

[J.M. Disciple]

do you all think its better to keep your line going or compound it? I ran across the warrior team when i was back testing and at one point they had 9 straight overs! Which looks like this:

5 5 5 5 L
new line
5 5 5 5 10 L
new line
5 5 5 5 10 15 L
new line
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 L
new line
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 L
new line
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 L



5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 L


5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 L


5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 L


5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 W


5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 W


5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 W


10 15 20 25 30 W


15 20 25 L


15 20 25 40 W


20 25 W


line clear


Does that look right to you all? I can do it that way or compound the lines seeing how my biggest bet was only $55 on this method I am leaning towards this way. At the same time though I might miss out on some units by not compounding it. So i guess it brings us back to the ultimate question....

HOW COMFORTABLE ARE YO U WITH VARIANCE? less profit and less variance or more profit but more variance?

I think i like the less variance line, will have a million bets going on at once anyways.

[J.M. Disciple]

alright here is what I got now

5 5 5 5 L
5 5 5 5 10 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 W
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 W
5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 W
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 L
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 L
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 L
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 W
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 W
15 20 25 30 35 L
15 20 25 30 35 50 L
15 20 25 30 35 50 65 L
15 20 25 30 35 50 65 80 W
20 25 30 35 50 65 W
25 30 35 50 W
30 35 W


LINE CLEAR 25 GAMES TO CLEAR A LINE LOL
bIGGEST bet $95




This is for the thunder. so before it took 13 games to clear a line if you were compounding, vs 25 games if you were not compounding the bets. Which those 12 game difference I would of missed out on 2 units if i were compounding. So gotta ask myself...

Risk $228 twice to win extra 2 units or have my biggest bet be $95 and miss out on 2 units...

[dlunc3]

just a thought... maybe you should set a limit for each labby line... then, if you reach that limit, then you reset the line... you could then take all the extra money from that line and spread it out among your 30 other lines...

in your example above, it looks like the worst point was 5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 right? if you took the $220 (10 + 15 + 20 + 25 + 30 + 40 +45) and divided it by 30, you would only need to add in $7.33 to each of your other lines. If you add that to a line of 5 5 5 5, the lines would only need to be 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83. So as you can see, rather then having an overwhelming line and huge bets ahead, this could make it much more manageable.. so just a thought..

also, I am a much bigger fan of the compounding after a few losses rather then keeping the line going...this way you can clear the line with 2 wins... by not compounding, it might take a 6 or 7 game win streak to ever clear that line, which could never happen..

[J.M. Disciple]

That is a very good thought DLunc3. Thanks bro... glad i could get some insight back on these #s i posted.

[COYLO]

where can i find post #5000????



only kidding

[dlunc3]

That is a very good thought DLunc3. Thanks bro... glad i could get some insight back on these #s i posted.

yea even if you could add it up and divide by 10 or so and just add them to certain teams lines that are doing well, it would even help if you didnt wanna spread it over the full 30 teams. Definately think something like that could prevent a disaster from hitting...you have a great idea though.. look forward to NBA to try some of these new thoughts..

[Bugs Bunny]

also, I am a much bigger fan of the compounding after a few losses rather then keeping the line going...this way you can clear the line with 2 wins... by not compounding, it might take a 6 or 7 game win streak to ever clear that line, which could never happen..

But if that two win streak doesn't come, you could be in deep trouble because you are already betting big numbers

[Wallco99]

alright here is what I got now

5 5 5 5 L
5 5 5 5 10 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 L
5 5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 W
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 L
5 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 W
5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 W
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 L
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 L
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 L
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 W
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 W
15 20 25 30 35 L
15 20 25 30 35 50 L
15 20 25 30 35 50 65 L
15 20 25 30 35 50 65 80 W
20 25 30 35 50 65 W
25 30 35 50 W
30 35 W


LINE CLEAR 25 GAMES TO CLEAR A LINE LOL
bIGGEST bet $95




This is for the thunder. so before it took 13 games to clear a line if you were compounding, vs 25 games if you were not compounding the bets. Which those 12 game difference I would of missed out on 2 units if i were compounding. So gotta ask myself...

Risk $228 twice to win extra 2 units or have my biggest bet be $95 and miss out on 2 units...

All that is great, morse code, or whatever the heck it is. But after the 25 games, what was your total profit if you stopped there? Labbys seem to me, that if you don't win the (A) bet, you spend the rest of your time just chasing your loss money with very little profit. I may be wrong, but all the examples I've seen on these sites seem to lead me to believe that.

[Wallco99]

where can i find post #5000????



only kidding

Right after #4999

[louvega71]

sounds for to me

[oklahoma]

dallas shit the bed, philly and dallas(b) look to be next chase-110 bets.

[ghislaine]

I always use Labby, love it, I can sleep at night
I have converted to JM thinking, and now rather start the lines small
just withdrawed money, so bank is 340usd and use a small labby on that
10-10-10-10 and then compound OR extend and divide, the most
important thing for me is to feel safe, risk a small percentage of my bank
- even 10% per game feels sometimes big - and sleep well !!!

so keep Your risk low and sleep well...


340usd bank

10-10-10-10 after three losses
10-10-10-10-20-20-20

divide to
10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10 = 100usd and break even again

(I bet to WIN, so the line would actually look more like 10-10-10-10-30-30-30 with 170 juice...)


great labby discussion