John Morrison 2010 NBA

Vincenzo27 · 03-29-11, 12:48 PM

how exactly does the v2 and v3 systems work? I wanna try miami/clev v3 bet tonight but idk if I need to buy points and what not

Wallco99 · 03-29-11, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

Hey Wallco, havent seen you in a while over on the MLB thread... are you still working on any systems for baseball?

Yes, two. It is very time consuming. I haven't forgotten. I don't want to rush just to get something out there. I am insistant on being thorough.

million2one · 03-29-11, 01:30 PM

^^^^^^
Well, unless you want to take MIA on the MoneyLine, which would be madness (IMO), you buy three points on the spread to get Miami at -10.
Good luck, I myself am staying far away from this one and hoping Cleveland can pull off the miracle.

Wallco99 · 03-29-11, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by GGZOLA

trying to grasp this mini chase system.
Am I correct to say that , example A,
At betting to win 100, with standard -110 vig,
So far you are up 57 wins= +5700, minus 3 system losses (-110, add -231, add -485= -826 per chase loss.) So 5700-2478=+3222 for season? (just on system A)

The losses are 18.68 units, not 8.26. This system requires three point buying @ (-170).

alex81 · 03-29-11, 02:03 PM

I looked at miami's sched... The heat are beginning a 4 game road trip against weak opponents... Cleveland, washington, minny and nj. Miami will prob be a double digit fave in each game.

I will play a 4 game chase fading the heat wo buying pts since there is no way they will cover in each contest. They prob won't even cover tonight! I much rather do this then bet on miami to cover double digits on the road..

teecee · 03-29-11, 02:29 PM

the m/l bet, crap, was introduced to cover for 1 fukking loss, if i'm not mistaken. i see no point in playing the m/l's. bear in mind, this is just my opinion. i've been known to be wrong.

GGPLAYER · 03-29-11, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by teecee

the m/l bet, crap, was introduced to cover for 1 fukking loss, if i'm not mistaken. i see no point in playing the m/l's. bear in mind, this is just my opinion. i've been known to be wrong.

Your totally right teecee. This comes up every few weeks. Last year Houston lost a series but JM in another attempt to cover up an ugly loss created this ML filter. It's simple math for me. The risk has to make some sense to the reward. You will cripple your roll if one of these high ML's loses and it will eventually. Then JM will come up with another lame filter AFTER THE FACT to cover his tracks. I think that is what most people don't understand is that every series has the potenial to lose. It's good money management which keeps you in the game.

Wallco99 · 03-29-11, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Your totally right teecee. This comes up every few weeks. Last year Houston lost a series but JM in another attempt to cover up an ugly loss created this ML filter. It's simple math for me. The risk has to make some sense to the reward. You will cripple your roll if one of these high ML's loses and it will eventually. Then JM will come up with another lame filter AFTER THE FACT to cover his tracks. I think that is what most people don't understand is that every series has the potenial to lose. It's good money management which keeps you in the game.

I agree with you completely, which is the main reason I will spend the summer trying to work around the M/L rule in my Chase 110. I will hopefully do it before a loss, so it can be seen as a system improvement, and not a "loss cover up", I'll save that racket for JM. This is one of the several reasons I also asked for previous years spreadsheets of the plays for all versions. I really need someone to come through here, it will save me a ton of time.

ghislaine · 03-29-11, 04:19 PM

We heart You Wallco for all Your efforts, sorry such a noob, have no way of acquiring said spreasheets

come on, give this guy a hand !!
anyways, I took the JM bet for Miami, got 11 1/2 at betus buying the points.
Here`s hoping they play that well

still doing labby, so not a biggie if they do not.

jphil · 03-29-11, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Vincenzo27

how exactly does the v2 and v3 systems work? I wanna try miami/clev v3 bet tonight but idk if I need to buy points and what not

Buy the points.

NBA_Betting_System[1].pdf (v1-07/08)

JM NBA 1.pdf (v1-08/09)

JM NBA 2010.pdf (v1,2-09/10)

nba3syss[1].pdf (v1,2,3-09/10)

V1 = a road series where all 3 opponents are in the opposite conference
V2 = a road series where only 2 opponents are in the opposite conference
V3 = a road series where only 1, or none of the opponents is in the opposite conference

Updated v1 says to play ML when the spread is -3 or greater (-4,-5,etc.).
Original v1 does not have the -3 rule. Just buy 3 pts.

v2 & v3- same ML rules apply as V1 above. It's your choice.

J.M. Disciple · 03-29-11, 06:11 PM

SBP Warriors +11.5 [A]
SBP updated PHX -1 [B]

Crusher Phx -1 [A]
Crusher hockey phx [A] over dallas

JM nBA: Mia -11 [A] vs CLE

J.M. Disciple · 03-29-11, 06:12 PM

Cover Four:
Sac +2 [A]

GoGooners · 03-29-11, 11:24 PM

This is where taking the m/l on Miami is really gonna hurt.. I say screw that filter.

Full-Grown · 03-30-11, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by on3

3/29 -- washington (A) YES PLAY

Originally posted by Vincenzo27

how exactly does the v2 and v3 systems work? I wanna try miami/clev v3 bet tonight but idk if I need to buy points and what not

Best to stay away from the A bets in JM anyway. Just bet the B and C games.

ghislaine · 03-30-11, 02:29 AM

wowza....
so Miami JM took a beating, oh well, my labby will recover

seems crusher and especially 110 chase have been doing really well !!!
looking forward to tonight plays

JM Disciple ? Wallco ?

alexknyc · 03-30-11, 04:15 AM

That's why I avoided Miami completely.

I did, however, take a flier ($5) on the Cavs M/L because I was getting 10 to 1. I figured the Miami M/L was ridiculous ($100 wins $6.67) and the $5 was easily coverable by other games. It was a nice $50 pickup but, as I said, no rhyme or reason to it.

Wallco99 · 03-30-11, 07:18 AM

Chase 110 - Plays for 3/30/11
2010-11 System to date: 78-0
System Rules can be found in post #5000
System Backtest can be found in post #5000

Oklahoma City @ Phoenix Suns (+3 ½) (A)

million2one · 03-30-11, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by alexknyc

That's why I avoided Miami completely.

I did, however, take a flier ($5) on the Cavs M/L because I was getting 10 to 1. I figured the Miami M/L was ridiculous ($100 wins $6.67) and the $5 was easily coverable by other games. It was a nice $50 pickup but, as I said, no rhyme or reason to it.

Nice job on this one. I stayed away from this A bet as well.
Sometimes a no play is the best best you can make.

GGPLAYER · 03-30-11, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Chase 110 - Plays for 3/30/11
2010-11 System to date: 78-0
System Rules can be found in post #5000
System Backtest can be found in post #5000

Oklahoma City @ Phoenix Suns (+3 ½) (A)

head to head with JM play (OKC)...I personally like Pho here.

GGPLAYER · 03-30-11, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by alexknyc

That's why I avoided Miami completely.

I did, however, take a flier ($5) on the Cavs M/L because I was getting 10 to 1. I figured the Miami M/L was ridiculous ($100 wins $6.67) and the $5 was easily coverable by other games. It was a nice $50 pickup but, as I said, no rhyme or reason to it.

Good thinking. I always stop from myself from taking those crazy ML's here and there because I feel like I'm throwing money away but I like the idea of just adding it into your future bets. Plus what the hell it was only $5 bucks, right? Nice one

alexknyc · 03-30-11, 10:42 AM

Same problem tonight with Miami (-14) and -1000 M/L. Suggestions are welcome.

alexknyc · 03-30-11, 10:46 AM

What about OKC on the money line and Phoenix +4 (at BetUS)?

I've middled like that before but it's a tough call.

Fitz22 · 03-30-11, 10:46 AM

the play is on PHO

teecee · 03-30-11, 11:14 AM

i was glad to see the suns lose last night. i wanted another series to play this week, and i got it. woot, woot!

maserati · 03-30-11, 11:23 AM

Wallco or JM?!? Hate these.

million2one · 03-30-11, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by alexknyc

Same problem tonight with Miami (-14) and -1000 M/L. Suggestions are welcome.

If Miami had a better coach I would say they roll tonight after last night's embarrassing loss.
I love this spot as it is Washington's first game back off of a successful road trip, Washington off a win and Miami off a loss.

I just can't play a DD fav. on the road however, maybe is worth some SBR points, or ML parlay with Chicago and Denver.

atari5200 · 03-30-11, 12:05 PM

It feels good to take a night off for a change. Enjoy and good luck to you all. Withdrawals days from a book are always good days.

GGPLAYER · 03-30-11, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by alexknyc

What about OKC on the money line and Phoenix +4 (at BetUS)?

I've middled like that before but it's a tough call.

Yeah you can do that and I've pulled of the miricle middle before as well. Lot of fun when it happens. But if your true to both systems you play them both and ride them out.

krzychu78 · 03-30-11, 12:45 PM

JM's NBA system (injury filter and ML filter are not applied):
03/29/2011 Miami @ Cleveland- V3, A bet - LOSS

V1record so far (finished series): 57-3
(A): 30-30
(B): 22-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 29-1
(A): 17-13
(B): 5-8
(C): 7-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 58-3
(A): 34-26-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 20-7-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-2-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)
GS 03/18-21

Next JM's plays:
03/30/2011 Cleveland @ Charlotte - V3, A bet
03/30/2011 Oklahoma City @ Phoenix- V3, A bet
03/30/2011 Miami @ Washington- V3, B bet
03/31/2011 Boston @ San Antonio- V2, C bet
04/03/2011 Phoenix @ San Antonio- V3, A bet
04/05/2011 Milwaukee @ Orlando- V3, A bet
04/05/2011 LA Clippers @ Memphis- V3, A bet
04/05/2011 Sacramento @ Houston- V3, A bet
04/06/2011 New York @ Philadelphia- V3, A bet
04/08/2011 Chicago @ Cleveland- V3, A bet

hagball52 · 03-30-11, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by alexknyc

Same problem tonight with Miami (-14) and -1000 M/L. Suggestions are welcome.

Yeah this is one of those instances where you need to be a little flexible. There is absolutely no value in moneylinig or pointspread and even buying 3 pts. does not look all that appealing either. This is where the teaser presents some value if you insist on playing the game. That's how I played it today. I got on MIA early before the spread went up so I got them @ -6 and put DEN on there @ -6.5. I'm trying to stay away from teasers but sometimes they're the only way to get any value in a bet. GL

allidoiswin89 · 03-30-11, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by hagball52

Yeah this is one of those instances where you need to be a little flexible. There is absolutely no value in moneylinig or pointspread and even buying 3 pts. does not look all that appealing either. This is where the teaser presents some value if you insist on playing the game. That's how I played it today. I got on MIA early before the spread went up so I got them @ -6 and put DEN on there @ -6.5. I'm trying to stay away from teasers but sometimes they're the only way to get any value in a bet. GL

people do this all the time. people never think to put 7 points on the underdogs to make them +20......i don't have any backtest to show to you, but i can tell you its a heck of a lot more profitable then hoping two teams win by 6 or more

hagball52 · 03-30-11, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by allidoiswin89

people do this all the time. people never think to put 7 points on the underdogs to make them +20......i don't have any backtest to show to you, but i can tell you its a heck of a lot more profitable then hoping two teams win by 6 or more

I've gone both ways. It depends on the matchup. This one being a system bet I went with MIA but I usually take the points instead of give them.

Wallco99 · 03-30-11, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

head to head with JM play (OKC)...I personally like Pho here.

Passing on OK City. If they lose I will play B bet. If they win, I will put an extra unit on Phoenix B. If they win By 1,2, or 3 points, my loss.

Wallco99 · 03-30-11, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by maserati

Wallco or JM?!? Hate these.

Wallco

Wallco99 · 03-30-11, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by hagball52

Yeah this is one of those instances where you need to be a little flexible. There is absolutely no value in moneylinig or pointspread and even buying 3 pts. does not look all that appealing either. This is where the teaser presents some value if you insist on playing the game. That's how I played it today. I got on MIA early before the spread went up so I got them @ -6 and put DEN on there @ -6.5. I'm trying to stay away from teasers but sometimes they're the only way to get any value in a bet. GL

Thought you learned your lesson Monday!