John Morrison 2010 NBA

[Wallco99]

if it's wins, new jersey sure as hell won't be a play tonight.

Good point, I overlooked the obvious.

[Wallco99]

Teecee, the way the new sytem is laid out, every single chase 110 (A) bet will have an opposing Fade 110 (A) bet. So if you are going to skip this one for that reason, it looks like you will be skipping all. My data over the years has shown a very strong (A) bet victory rate for Chase 110. These are some interesting ideas JD has brought to the table. I definitely will backtest previous years before jumping in. If successful, here is how I plan to play it. Since the Chase 110 (A) rate is so high, it could only mean the opposite is low. So I will only place (A) bets on Chase 110. If that loses, I will be placing only a (B) bet on Chase 110, and the Fade 110 will be over for that series. However, if Chase 110 wins the (A) bet (also means Fade 110 loses (A) bet), I will play a three game chase on fade 110 (B) (C) (D) to win three units, similar to (B) (C) style in JM. The extra units will make up for the wins we missed on, and since Chase 110 has a higher than 50% (A) bet win rate, the contrary would be less than 50% win rate for Fade 110 (A) bets. Since this is the case, three units on a (B) (C) (D) chase would net more overall profit than even the (B) (C) chase for JM. However, a loss would be 24.78 units instead of 18.44 (assuming all are -110). It will only take 8 wins @ +3 units to make up 1 loss, instead of 18 wins the other way (chasing 4 games). If that # is to high for someone, then tone it down to win 2 units instead of 3. A loss will only be 16.5 units this way, and still only 8 wins are needed for 1 loss, but less profits by season's end. This is only effective because (A) bet win rate is so low. Chase 110 (A) win rate is too high for this method.

Synopsis:

Bet (A) on Chase 110 only
If Chase 110 bet wins, bet to win three units against the Chase 110 team on their next three games, this would be the Fade 110, (B) (C) (D).
If Chase 110 loses, Bet Chase 110 (B) (C) (D) bets only, Fade 110 will be over for that series.

Betting for and against a team every (A) bet cannot possibly be over 50% both ways. I know playing M/L in Chase 110 saved us some losses, but I don't know the actual # of favorites that won on the (A) bet M/L and didn't cover the spread. Proper money management is crucial here, if we opt to play both sides of the fence.

[Wallco99]

JMD, what is the (A) (B) (C) (D) breakdown for that. I would like to see if indeed I am wrong about the (A) bet success rate in Fade 110. If so, I will have to re-evaluate my giant post above.

[Wallco99]

Chase 110
2010-11 System to date: 74-0
System Rules can be found in post #5000
System Backtest can be found in post #5000

(3/20/11) Washington (+2 ½) (D) – Win
(3/20/11) Golden State (+8 ½) (A) - Loss

(A) 43-32
(B) 19-12
(C) 8-4
(D) 4-0


Next games:
(3/21/11) Indiana @ New Jersey Nets (A)
(3/21/11) Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio (B) ** Also a JM v3 (C) bet

[Wallco99]

Chase 110 - Plays for 3/21/11
2010-11 System to date: 74-0
System Rules can be found in post #5000
System Backtest can be found in post #5000



Golden State (+11) @ San Antonio (B) ** Also a JM v3 (C) bet
Indiana @ New Jersey Nets (+3) (A)

[The Comeback]

Teecee, the way the new sytem is laid out, every single chase 110 (A) bet will have an opposing Fade 110 (A) bet. So if you are going to skip this one for that reason, it looks like you will be skipping all. My data over the years has shown a very strong (A) bet victory rate for Chase 110. These are some interesting ideas JD has brought to the table. I definitely will backtest previous years before jumping in. If successful, here is how I plan to play it. Since the Chase 110 (A) rate is so high, it could only mean the opposite is low. So I will only place (A) bets on Chase 110. If that loses, I will be placing only a (B) bet on Chase 110, and the Fade 110 will be over for that series. However, if Chase 110 wins the (A) bet (also means Fade 110 loses (A) bet if M/L doesn't cover), I will play a three game chase on fade 110 (B) (C) (D) to win three units, similar to (B) (C) style in JM. The extra units will make up for the wins we missed on, and since Chase 110 has a higher than 50% (A) bet win rate, the contrary would be less than 50% win rate for Fade 110 (A) bets. Since this is the case, three units on a (B) (C) (D) chase would net more overall profit than even the (B) (C) chase for JM, and a loss would only be 17.96 units instead of 18.44 (assuming all are -110, which they probably won't be).

Synopsis:

Bet (A) on Chase 110 only
If Chase 110 bet wins, bet to win three units against the Chase 110 team on their next three games, this would be the Fade 110, (B) (C) (D).
If Chase 110 loses, Bet Chase 110 (B) bet only, Fade 110 will be over for that series.

Betting for and against a team every (A) bet cannot possibly be over 50% both ways, unless money lines make that much difference. They may, but I don't know if it is worth the risk. I know playing M/L in Chase 110 saved us some losses, but I don't know the actual # of favorites that won on the (A) bet M/L and didn't cover the spread. Since the majority of our Chase 110 plays we are getting points, the Fade 110 will be mostly M/L bets. Proper money management is crucial here, if we opt to play both sides of the fence. Actually, without re-typing a lot of this, Fade 110 losses may get pretty expensive, since there will probaly be a lot of M/L involved.

Since the majority of our Chase 110 plays we are getting points, the Fade 110 will be mostly M/L bets. Proper money management is crucial here, if we opt to play both sides of the fence. Actually, without re-typing a lot of this, Fade 110 losses may get pretty expensive, since there will probaly be a lot of M/L involved.[/quote]

[The Comeback]

Wallco, I think the key difference you are looking for lies in the fact that in his system, he does NOT play M/L but stricly -110. As we all know, that changes everything when considering your risk on this system.

[Wallco99]

Wallco, I think the key difference you are looking for lies in the fact that in his system, he does NOT play M/L but stricly -110. As we all know, that changes everything when considering your risk on this system.

I see it now, it was the "three wins" system that he proposed that used the M/L on favorites, the Fade 110 he says to use all -110. Well, in that case, I now know my data is accurate in my post above, since we will be getting the exact same line both ways, one will ALWAYS win, and one will ALWAYS lose, less pushes, or slight line changes if bets are put in at different times. So if Chase 110 is higher than 50% win rate on (A), Fade 110 has to be less. So my (B) (C) (D) method seems like the best way to attack the Fade 110 system, since the other way will only guarantee we will lose one of our (A) bets. So why not collect all the (A) bets on the system with the better %, and make up for missed wins with more units on later bets in Fade 110. This could be a VERY profitable way of merging the two systems, if his data is correct, and further backtest supports this system. I definitely won't jump in until I get that data, especially this late in the season. Good work JMD, let me know what you think about this betting style for your new system, and if you have the (A) (B) (C) (D) breakdowns, please post them. Thanks.

[The Comeback]

Wallco, well said and I couldnt agree more. These two could be a perfect fit together given the high win % you have discussed and backtested on Chase 110. Add in the add'l units you can collect on a B,C,D chase of thie Fadel system, along with the fact that your bankroll is less exposed for the remainder of this betting serious due to the fact they are all -110 plays, and its got great potential moving forward.

[teecee]

Teecee, the way the new sytem is laid out, every single chase 110 (A) bet will have an opposing Fade 110 (A) bet. So if you are going to skip this one for that reason, it looks like you will be skipping all. My data over the years has shown a very strong (A) bet victory rate for Chase 110. These are some interesting ideas JD has brought to the table. I definitely will backtest previous years before jumping in. If successful, here is how I plan to play it. Since the Chase 110 (A) rate is so high, it could only mean the opposite is low. So I will only place (A) bets on Chase 110. If that loses, I will be placing only a (B) bet on Chase 110, and the Fade 110 will be over for that series. However, if Chase 110 wins the (A) bet (also means Fade 110 loses (A) bet if M/L doesn't cover), I will play a three game chase on fade 110 (B) (C) (D) to win three units, similar to (B) (C) style in JM. The extra units will make up for the wins we missed on, and since Chase 110 has a higher than 50% (A) bet win rate, the contrary would be less than 50% win rate for Fade 110 (A) bets. Since this is the case, three units on a (B) (C) (D) chase would net more overall profit than even the (B) (C) chase for JM, and a loss would only be 17.96 units instead of 18.44 (assuming all are -110, which they probably won't be).

Synopsis:

Bet (A) on Chase 110 only
If Chase 110 bet wins, bet to win three units against the Chase 110 team on their next three games, this would be the Fade 110, (B) (C) (D).
If Chase 110 loses, Bet Chase 110 (B) bet only, Fade 110 will be over for that series.

Betting for and against a team every (A) bet cannot possibly be over 50% both ways, unless money lines make that much difference. They may, but I don't know if it is worth the risk. I know playing M/L in Chase 110 saved us some losses, but I don't know the actual # of favorites that won on the (A) bet M/L and didn't cover the spread. Since the majority of our Chase 110 plays we are getting points, the Fade 110 will be mostly M/L bets. Proper money management is crucial here, if we opt to play both sides of the fence. Actually, without re-typing a lot of this, Fade 110 losses may get pretty expensive, since there will probaly be a lot of M/L involved.

umm, i did not read all of what you typed, but i've already locked in golden state at +11 for tonight. i'm not fading the -110, i'm gonna roll with it. i don't start with "a" bets, i begin with "b" or "c" plays, and i only play dogs so i can get points. if i'm -$10 for the week and i have a potentially large bet lurking, i'll play a, let's say "d" bet, for a much smaller amount to simply try and get positive for the week. i may miss out on some wins/units, but i don't care. i don't mind assuming smaller risk for more modest gains. i'll play it the way i want. g/l, and thanks for trying to help people.

[djprimem]

Wow a lot of different possible systems. Hey JMD please just put at the end of your post... "My Plays = " to make it less confusing. Thanks and I am new in this section of forum, and just trying to follow. Maybe if Walco and others will do the same, that would be great! I appreciate everyone who post here for their hard work.

[Wallco99]

umm, i did not read all of what you typed, but i've already locked in golden state at +11 for tonight. i'm not fading the -110, i'm gonna roll with it. i don't start with "a" bets, i begin with "b" or "c" plays, and i only play dogs so i can get points. if i'm -$10 for the week and i have a potentially large bet lurking, i'll play a, let's say "d" bet, for a much smaller amount to simply try and get positive for the week. i may miss out on some wins/units, but i don't care. i don't mind assuming smaller risk for more modest gains. i'll play it the way i want. g/l, and thanks for trying to help people.

I am not bad mouthing the Fade 110 at all, or trying to tell you how to bet, I would never do that. I just offered a possible bet style that could let us bet both systems, maximize our profits, and help reduce some of risk. By no means would I ever say anything negative to you if you opted not to bet certain systems, that is not my style. I was just stating that every fade 110 play will be the dead opposite of mine, and since you stated you were skipping both because they were playing each other, I just wanted to show an optional way of playing both. All good.

[Wallco99]

Wow a lot of different possible systems. Hey JMD please just put at the end of your post... "My Plays = " to make it less confusing. Thanks and I am new in this section of forum, and just trying to follow. Maybe if Walco and others will do the same, that would be great! I appreciate everyone who post here for their hard work.

All my plays say Chase 110 at the top, they always have.

[imotiv8]

Im usually the first to defend C bets. However tonight I will not play my usual amount. GS is playing back to back and have a history of getting blown out in SA. On the other side SA really doesnt have anything to play for and will hopefully rest and or give limited playing time to some starters. Dont get me wrong, Im still playing them because thats what the system calls for, just not for as much especially since I skipped the B bet yesterday

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA system (injury filter and ML filter are not applied):
03/20/2011 Toronto @ Oklahoma City- V1, A bet - WIN
03/20/2011 Sacramento @ Minnesota- V2, A bet - WIN
03/20/2011 Utah @ Houston- V3, A bet - WIN
03/20/2011 Golden State @ Dallas- V3, B bet - LOSS

V1record so far (finished series): 55-3
(A): 29-29
(B): 21-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 29-1
(A): 17-13
(B): 5-8
(C): 7-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 51-2
(A): 28-24-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 18-6-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-1-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)

Next JM's plays:
03/21/2011 Indiana @ New Jersey- V3, B bet
03/21/2011 Golden State @ San Antonio- V3, C bet
03/22/2011 Washington @ Portland- V1, A bet
03/23/2011 New Jersey @ Cleveland- V3, A bet
03/23/2011 San Antonio @ Denver- V3, A bet
03/24/2011 New Orleans @ Utah- V3, A bet
03/26/2011 Dallas @ Utah- V3, A bet
03/27/2011 Houston @ Miami- V1, A bet
03/27/2011 Boston @ Minnesota- V2, A bet
03/27/2011 Portland @ Oklahoma City- V3, A bet
03/28/2011 Milwaukee @ Charlotte- V3, A bet
03/29/2011 Miami @ Cleveland- V3, A bet
03/30/2011 Cleveland @ Charlotte - V3, A bet
03/30/2011 Oklahoma City @ Phoenix- V3, A bet
04/03/2011 Phoenix @ San Antonio- V3, A bet
04/05/2011 Milwaukee @ Orlando- V3, A bet
04/05/2011 LA Clippers @ Memphis- V3, A bet
04/05/2011 Sacramento @ Houston- V3, A bet
04/06/2011 New York @ Philadelphia- V3, A bet
04/08/2011 Chicago @ Cleveland- V3, A bet

[Jcarlos7180]

JM disciples is moneyline or spread?

Thanks and good Job

[Wallco99]

JM disciples is moneyline or spread?

Thanks and good Job

Read his posts

[teecee]

all i'm saying, wallco, is that i like the system you backtested, and always have. i will not fade the 110. it may lose, but i like it, especially when catching points. next season, i may be tempted to sprinkle some on the dog's moneyline. i've seen +13.5, +14, +8.5's win straight up more than occasionally. last night a +1325/+1350 cashes!? could be worth a chase. i may backtest if i can find the time.

[Full-Grown]

Raptors got it done for JJ and the TPS C Bet.

I've been searching for this TPS system and can't seem to find it. You got a link to it Kev?!?

[Full-Grown]

Or anyone else obv?

[Full-Grown]

3 wins SU 3 ATS wins *bet to cover one of the next 4 *filter same as chase110 you play ML on favorites *ML filter would of mattered in about 4 of these series. SAS 6-0 NOH 4-0 mem 3-0 Hous 3-0 DAL 4-0 SAC 0-0 phx 5-0 LAL 5-0 LAC 3-0 GSW 1-1 utah 3-0 Por 5-0 okc 5-0 min 0-0 Den 6-0 wiz 0-0 ORL 1-0 mia 5-0 Char 1-0 ATL 2-0 MIL 2-0 indy 0-0 det 0-0 CLE 1-0 Chi 5-0 TOR 1-0 phil 4-0 NYK 3-0 njn 0-0 Bos 3-0 TOTAL 81-1

Good Work J.M. Disciple!!! Combing the chase 110 and fade 110 is going to make some serious cash.

Kinda confused about the money line on the win 3 su and ats system though. I thought you were betting on them to just cover on 1 of the next 4. You said to bet m/l if a fav. Won't they be a fav almost every time since they are a team capable of beating the spread and winning 3 games in a row on top of that? But you said the m/l filter would have only mattered in about 4 series out of 82. Which doesn't make sense to me considering that a team that has won 3 in a row and 3 ats would be favored more often than not. Sorry that I'm having a hard time figuring this one out.

[Wallco99]

all i'm saying, wallco, is that i like the system you backtested, and always have. i will not fade the 110. it may lose, but i like it, especially when catching points. next season, i may be tempted to sprinkle some on the dog's moneyline. i've seen +13.5, +14, +8.5's win straight up more than occasionally. last night a +1325/+1350 cashes!? could be worth a chase. i may backtest if i can find the time.

Let me know if you do find something. I tested several dog chases, with no good results yet, some were disasterous. But if we can find one, it could be a HUGE moneymaker. Thanks.

[Wallco99]

Good Work J.M. Disciple!!! Combing the chase 110 and fade 110 is going to make some serious cash.

Kinda confused about the money line on the win 3 su and ats system though. I thought you were betting on them to just cover on 1 of the next 4. You said to bet m/l if a fav. Won't they be a fav almost every time since they are a team capable of beating the spread and winning 3 games in a row on top of that? But you said the m/l filter would have only mattered in about 4 series out of 82. Which doesn't make sense to me considering that a team that has won 3 in a row and 3 ats would be favored more often than not. Sorry that I'm having a hard time figuring this one out.

I was wondering the same exact thing. Those losses could be enormous.

[xgame]

Just run both series at the same time. This is solid stuff, thats 100+ units with those two systems I just posted that we could of added to our bankroll this season. This could of easily of been 200-300 unit season if i would of back tested this stuff before. I'm just going to start following it. Feel free to back test previous years with the two systems i just posted. 3 wins ATS, 3 wins SU system #1) bet to cover one of the next four games. 3 wins ATS 3 wins SU system #2. bet to lose one of the next 4.

J.M. Disciple. your system is D bet on NJN? thanks

[J.M. Disciple]

03/21/11
JM NBA:
GSW [C] @ SAS
Indy [b] @ NJN


Chase 110:
NJN [A] vs INDY
GSW [b] vs SAS


J.M. Disciples win 3 SU win 3 ATS
*cover one of the next four
*system ytd 81-1
*njn won 3 su 3 ats on the 9th 11th 14th, followed by
3 losses su 3 losses Ats which makes this a 'D' bet for this system


NJN [D] vs Indy


J.M. Disciples Fade 110 (75-2)
*lose a spread after losing 3 SU losing 3 ATS


NJN vs Indy[A]
*NJN lost 3 su 3 Ats, so bet for Indy to cover.


SBP original:
TOR +13 [b]
SBP updated:
nothing

[Kev the Brit]

I've been searching for this TPS system and can't seem to find it. You got a link to it Kev?!?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-pl...ystem-tps.html the pdf is half way down the page (post #11)

The system is now closed for the season.

[J.M. Disciple]

ok now that the plays are posted, i will explain all the questions that have been asked.
1) i have only back tested this year and I do not have the A B C D results for it. I just looked at the overall win - loss record when I was back testing.
2) I was mistaken when I said M/L only came into effect a couple of times. I was referring to if you did not use money line then you could of still made a small profit.
3) These two systems i posted have only been back tested 1 year. I would suggest following Wallco's system before mine since he has many more years back tested.

Fade 110:
rule #1) It is all based on -110 closing lines at covers.com there is no using M/L for this system.
rule #2) its a four game chase after a team loses 3 su 3 ATS, instead of betting for them to cover one of the next four games, you bet for them to lose one of the next four games. I.E. bet on the opposing team to cover.
rule #3) As always manage your money.
*I kinda like the idea that walco said of betting 3 units on B C D and skipping A. Once I get a detailed back test in, then I will post the results and we will be able to figure out the correct way of managing our money for this system.

system #2 im going to call COVER FOUR

RULE #1) wait for a team to to win 3 su and 3 ATS. Once they have done this then you bet for them to cover one of the next four games.
rule #2) If team is favorite then you should play ML. If they are underdog then play spread.
Rule #3) Manage your money as always.
*i remember the NYK came into play recently with this system and i think they had a D bet that they won. However, the previous spreads for this system were pretty high so could of cost a lot of money to follow this system.

[Wallco99]

Chase 110 - Plays for 3/21/11
2010-11 System to date: 74-0
System Rules can be found in post #5000
System Backtest can be found in post #5000



Golden State (+11) @ San Antonio (B) ** Also a JM v3 (C) bet
Indiana @ New Jersey Nets (+3) (A)

[jas19illini]

BOL tonight everyone.

[Wallco99]

03/21/11
JM NBA:
GSW [C] @ SAS
Indy [B] @ NJN


Chase 110:
NJN [A] vs INDY
GSW [B] vs SAS


J.M. Disciples win 3 SU win 3 ATS
*cover one of the next four
*system ytd 81-1
*njn won 3 su 3 ats on the 9th 11th 14th, followed by
3 wins su 3 wins Ats which makes this a 'D' bet for this system


NJN [D] vs Indy


J.M. Disciples Fade 110 (75-2)
*lose a spread after losing 3 SU losing 3 ATS


NJN vs Indy[A]
*NJN lost 3 su 3 Ats, so bet for Indy to cover.


SBP original:
TOR +13 [B]
SBP updated:
nothing

Shouldn't the first one say that after NJ won three ATS and S/U, they lost their next three, thus making your system a (D) bet. It says they won all six, they didn't. Correct this before mass confusion sets in.

[jas19illini]

JMD these new systems look promising. Keep up the good work.

[J.M. Disciple]

I'm going to avoid my Fade 110 A bet because of so little back testing done. I went ahead and placed an extra 1/2 unit on NJN +3 on my Cover Four system. This way only systems that are over lapping are chase 110 NJN [A] bet and JM NBA system with Indy [B]. Which I would have to say words of the day are going to be "i hope Indy wins by 1pt!"

[stevex]

Thanks for the update guys and lets make some money tonight with the Pacers and Warriors and SBP's Original System bet on the Raptors!....

Just thought I'd chime in and say baseball is ten days away! Baseball forum is already filling up with new threads and I am pretty excited, going to be following CRUSHER MLB, JM MLB and a couple other systems, so just because NBA is winding down, there's still money to be made! Enjoy.

[Wallco99]

ok now that the plays are posted, i will explain all the questions that have been asked.
1) i have only back tested this year and I do not have the A B C D results for it. I just looked at the overall win - loss record when I was back testing.
2) I was mistaken when I said M/L only came into effect a couple of times. I was referring to if you did not use money line then you could of still made a small profit.
3) These two systems i posted have only been back tested 1 year. I would suggest following Wallco's system before mine since he has many more years back tested.

Fade 110:
rule #1) It is all based on -110 closing lines at covers.com there is no using M/L for this system.
rule #2) its a four game chase after a team loses 3 su 3 ATS, instead of betting for them to cover one of the next four games, you bet for them to lose one of the next four games. I.E. bet on the opposing team to cover.
rule #3) As always manage your money.
*I kinda like the idea that walco said of betting 3 units on B C D and skipping A. Once I get a detailed back test in, then I will post the results and we will be able to figure out the correct way of managing our money for this system.

system #2 im going to call COVER FOUR

RULE #1) wait for a team to to win 3 su and 3 ATS. Once they have done this then you bet for them to cover one of the next four games.
rule #2) If team is favorite then you should play ML. If they are underdog then play spread.
Rule #3) Manage your money as always.
*i remember the NYK came into play recently with this system and i think they had a D bet that they won. However, the previous spreads for this system were pretty high so could of cost a lot of money to follow this system.

Keep one thing in mind. When I backtested Chase 110, I also started with the current season. I was ecstatic when I saw it was undefeated. If I would have stopped there, I wouldn't of known that there were losses every season, so all previous years wern't as good as current one. I am trying to wrap my mind around the logic whether my system being worse in the past than it is now, makes yours better those years, or really has no effect at all. If you want, we can split the workload and do a backtest together to cut down on the time. Let me know by P.M.
Thanks.

[J.M. Disciple]

LOL Wallco i corrected the exact same minute as you post. I caught on to that right when you were posting. I think i got it in a sec before you

Gotta go back and back test this years A B C D for these two systems now.

once again people dont over think my two systems. Theres only 1 year of back testing these systems, so as we say about john morrison, take these systems with a grain of salt for now.

Also I would like to add some times in the system after a team wins 3 su and ATS, then i bet to cover one of the next four, once they cover, there were a few times where they won that bet plus covered the next 2. I am not going to count that win as part of winning 3 su and 3 ATS.

I hope that last part makes sense.

for instance this is made up example.
Lets say Lakers won
3/21 & ATs
3/22 & ATS
3/23 &ATS
***this is where my system starts bettting on the 4th game.
so say they win 3/24 and my system gets a win.
on 3/25 say they win again
on 3/26 say they win again.

I do not count the 24th as part of winning 3 su and 3 ATS for the next series.