John Morrison 2010 NBA

[Wallco99]

Hey Wallco just flipped you a few points for your 110 chase system. Appreciate the hard work. If it starts bringing me some more wins I'll drop some more points your way. GL

Thank you kindly. Just trying to help.

[Wallco99]

One question. If it's a chase 110 how come you have Utah ML. Shouldn't it be on the spread ?

Read posts 3862 and 3891 for system explanations. We agreed that no more explanations were to be posted. Question is answered there.

[Wallco99]

Good question, Justin. My thinking is this: most of us will play a system for our own profit, regardless of the creator's spin and stats. Also, most of us choose a fairly regular time of the day to place the bets. For me, its usually 5pm (ish) UK time which will catch any early afternoon game (for most sports). So, when back testing the spreads, I look at the history of the midday (ET) spreads, which is what I would most probably have used and will most probably do in the future.

So, in essence, choose the bookie that you will use and choose the spread that was available at the time of day that you will most likely be online.

Hope this helps.

Kev

Kev is absolutely correct. I for example change some of JM rules on occasion and just play 110 instead of buying 3 pt if I like line. Systems are in place and backtested results are posted for working the system as laid out. But many times, slight changes to ease some of the burden or fear is OK, as long as it don't kill your bankroll. Since two of you asked, I will answer. Too many wins were negated by not taking ML on favorites, or too many series went too deep. The ML losses were minimal in my backtest, in fact, most happened in the same season, the bad season, 2008-09. I backtested it both ways, and found ML on favs. and (-110) on dogs in four game chase after losing three straight ATS and S/U was most profitable of all scenarios. But as I stated a few pages back, I am trying to find away around playing the ML, to make it less costly without sacrificing too many wins. But for now, they are too profitable as ML. I named it Chase 110 because the majority of the time, we are playing dog teams, since these are usually the teams who go on losing streaks. True, good teams do also lose in streaks, but only a few of the losses we have recorded over the five year test were result of a ML, and more losses would have been had we given up the points. This year we are 16-0 when betting ML in this system. I don't know how many of these may have been losses if we gave up points, but I remember seeing it lose quite frequently when doing the testing for previous years.

[thelimit0310]

Today's Washington game was not sent out as a pick, due to the fact that have not won a road game the entire season. I'll be skipping the A bet for sure, the rest of the series I'll have to think about.

However:

den @ cle (1/28), phi (1/30), nj (1/31)

bos @ pho (1/28), lal (1/30), sac (2/1)

Solaman has 2 plays tonight. I'm sure later in the day we'll get a pick or two for SBP and TPS as well

Looking forward at the systems in play, even Solamans and JMs alone, any losses could end up with a bunch of congestion in the next coming days. With these being chases, plan your bets accordingly.

[Wallco99]

What do you guys do when playing a variety of systems, when a team you are supposed to bet on in two different systems play against each other on a given night? Do you play both, knowing you will most likely lose one unless points are bought, or do you have some sort of criteria to not play one of them. I can see this happening quite often, just wonder how you handle it. Assuming two (C) bets go head to head, that would suck.

[nitsuj378]

Wallco99 and Kev the Brit,

Thank you for your responses. That is the way I understood it I just wanted to make sure I was seeing it the same way as everyone else. The trouble with me is I am black and white kind of person, either something is or it isn't. I do use the same book (5dimes) for all my backtesting. I use the opening lines because they stay the same. Lately I have been testing gaining +EV by catching a line movement in my favor. For example if road favorites at -1.5 hit ~%55 then I would gain +EV by getting line at -1 or -.5 at (-110). Wallco, I am interested in your Chase 110 system so I will keep checking for updates on it. Good luck with everything. Thanks again guys for the responses.

[hagball52]

Read posts 3862 and 3891 for system explanations. We agreed that no more explanations were to be posted. Question is answered there.

Thanks. I went back and saw your posts. I try to read every post in this thread every day but sometimes don't always get the chance. This is a very busy thread with lots of info. Thanks to all who contribute.

[Wallco99]

Thanks. I went back and saw your posts. I try to read every post in this thread every day but sometimes don't always get the chance. This is a very busy thread with lots of info. Thanks to all who contribute.

I posted it a few posts up #4036 also. I wasn't trying to be rude, but others in this forum have asked me to only post results and plays, not explanations or commentary on Chase 110, and I think it's only fair to respect their wishes. After all this is everyone's thread, so we shouldn't clog it up with too much repeat posting and arguing. Whoever reads this, in the future, I will answer PM questions on topic but not in this forum, only plays and results here, unless several peolple have same question. Thanks to everyone. Let's hope this system takes off!

[maserati]

What's JMs plays tonite? Thx

[Newbie1825]

Hey guys I wanted to thank you for all your great tips. I am new to this forum so please excuse my ignorance in regards to this SBP system. I see the bet you call but can anyone tell what the system rules are? I just like to schedule system bets in my calendar which I have done for all of JM systems but I just needed to know how this SBP works? Or if anyone can just lead to the thread or post that explains it?

[qwerty123]

V1 WAS Bet A - They currently have a 0-21 road record

[jmjj]

We discussed this in depth earlier in the forum. This forum is ignoring the John Morrison Filters because they were put in there to cover up his losses from previous years. Playing the injury filter will end up costing you a lot of units when the series gets canceled half way through. It is a BS filter as they say. There are plenty of series that still get won ignoring this filter. As Wilba and plenty of others have said the sports books take into account injuries when ever they make their line.

I use them and yes it may cost but its better to lose the A bet and move on from the series than to lose the B and C bets and then say later ohh I guess JM was right no need in trying to see if he is making it up to protect himself just follow it just like tonights play on Washington they have the worst road record in the league so dont bet it

so are u going to bet it and when we win say its an official play? or if we lose then do like what JM does and say oh we shouldnt have played it or played less on our bankroll? doesnt work that way folks

there are 2 official losses this yr and the Denver and Suns series earlier stopped at the A bets at least for v1.0 Im talking about dont know whats going on too much in v2&3 this yr stopped keeping up after we lost a v2.0 play in the first 2 weeks of the season

[jmjj]

sorry for the double post.

what i have for TPS today is:

pistons A
cavs A
wizards A
kings C

Kings are not a c bet we lost that series already this yr its an A bet now

and the Cavs today opening ML doesnt qualify it so only 3 bets today but still all good

[cmdyrds]

justin,

i always use closing line and past data i gather from covers.com. hope it helps.

[cmdyrds]

Kings are not a c bet we lost that series already this yr its an A bet now

and the Cavs today opening ML doesnt qualify it so only 3 bets today but still all good

thanks for the catch.

[SportsTerminator]

A D bet??? ...And Deron Williams is out...

[Newbie1825]

So can someone please clarify this SBP system for me?

[Newbie1825]

Can someone at least tell me if you buy point on these SBP bets?

[thelimit0310]

Can someone at least tell me if you buy point on these SBP bets?

Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't. Your in the wrong thread for SBP. Were trying to get rid of the question clutter so ask you question in the SBP thread for today. Its under Service Picks forum.

[J.M. Disciple]

Can someone at least tell me if you buy point on these SBP bets?

If you scroll back a few pages You will see the system explained. 3 game chase based of key point spreads posted 1 page back. NO BUYING POINTS. SIMPLE.

@ WALCO i wasn't considering a 5 game chase A B C D E. I was just considering a 4 game chase after a team has lost 5 games ATS. I didn't even look at the # of games SU. I think there would not be enough games that fit that criteria. SU and ATS is a good system for a 4 game chase. My stats on the 7 game ATS has nothing to do with SU. Totally different system I guess. Also asked why is UTAH listed as ML shouldn't it be point spread as stated above?

[jmjj]

What's JMs plays tonite? Thx

theres an unofficial play on Washington tonight even though he sent it out as an official play Washington has got the worst road record I wont touch it or bet light is all thats it -)

[J.M. Disciple]

Also there would be a ton of games where teams have lost 5 or 6 ATS and if you chase the next 3-4 games they cover really easily. The teams that won 7 ATS or lost ATS was 17-1. 18 games throughout the entire season is not much, but if you take it 1 or 2 steps down there will be a ton of games that you can chase.

There is something similar to this system for other sports as well. 3su and 3ats.

[J.M. Disciple]

SBP orginal SAC +13 [A]
SBP updated Orlando -1 [C]

TPS:
pistons A
wizards A
kings A

JM:
Washington +13.5 [A] *unofficial due to worst road record 0-21!!!! For those of you who use filters. Its A bet anyways which shouldn't follow.

Solaman
den @ cle (1/28), phi (1/30), nj (1/31)

bos @ pho (1/28), lal (1/30), sac (2/1)
*betting on home team to cover atleast one of the halves.

[jphil]

You ment SBP right?

Here's Rich's point spreads and what they're hitting at if you want to pick and choose. (V-1)

-1 Home 3-8 27% / -1 away 5-7 42%
-4 home 12-13 48% / -4 away 4-6 40%
-7 home 16-9 64% / -7 away 3-2 60%
+11 home 0-0 / +11 away 5-1 83%
+12 home 1-0 100% / +12 away 12-9 57%
+13 home 0-0 / +13 away 4-1 80%

Some of these you buy 1/2 point.

rk110: is his (v1) his original sys.?

are those %'s that you showed just this yr. to date? Was lookin for the overall %'s that he bases his sys. on, so i could pick & choose as you say. I used to have the damn pdf on another comp.

[thelimit0310]

SBP orginal SAC +13 [A]
SBP updated Orlando -1 [C]

TPS:
pistons A
wizards A
kings A

JM:
Washington +13.5 [A] *unofficial due to worst road record 0-21!!!! For those of you who use filters. Its A bet anyways which shouldn't follow.

Solaman
den @ cle (1/28), phi (1/30), nj (1/31)

bos @ pho (1/28), lal (1/30), sac (2/1)
*betting on home team to cover atleast one of the halves.

JMD i'm gonna start giving you as many points as i can afford to per day for this. having all our plays in one place is VERY helpful.

I appreciate this a lot, your hard work has not gone unnoticed. Thanks!

[J.M. Disciple]

Do a ML parlay tonight. Just want to add a few more bucks to my bankroll.
Thunder vs washington
LAL vs SAC
Den vs Cleveland
Mia vs detroit

Risk a little less then 4 units to win 2.5. Not the best odds in the world but a solid win % here since there all heavy favorites.

Can anyone tell me why ATL is -7 vs knicks?

[Wallco99]

If you scroll back a few pages You will see the system explained. 3 game chase based of key point spreads posted 1 page back. NO BUYING POINTS. SIMPLE.

@ WALCO i wasn't considering a 5 game chase A B C D E. I was just considering a 4 game chase after a team has lost 5 games ATS. I didn't even look at the # of games SU. I think there would not be enough games that fit that criteria. SU and ATS is a good system for a 4 game chase. My stats on the 7 game ATS has nothing to do with SU. Totally different system I guess. Also asked why is UTAH listed as ML shouldn't it be point spread as stated above?

I understand that, the reason I mentioned (E) and (F) bets is because those are the ones you would be using for your (C) and (D) now, since you would be starting the bet two games later. The (E) and (F) after 3 game streak = (C) and (D) after 5 game streak. If you are only talking ATS and not including S/U also, then I have no data for you. But if you are using both, try to read through the complicated way I worded my earlier text, I know it is the answer you are looking for. Four game chase after a five game losing streak (ATS and S/U) is the question I answered, If that wasn't what you were asking, I appologize.

[J.M. Disciple]

JMD i'm gonna start giving you as many points as i can afford to per day for this. having all our plays in one plays is VERY helpful.

I appreciate this a lot, your hard work has not gone unnoticed. Thanks!

Thanks playa. today was a bit easier.. Just read through the forum and most of the plays were already posted besides SBP. didn't see anyone post his plays. solaman and Tps i just had to read through and then make a correction on tps obviously.

[Wallco99]

Also there would be a ton of games where teams have lost 5 or 6 ATS and if you chase the next 3-4 games they cover really easily. The teams that won 7 ATS or lost ATS was 17-1. 18 games throughout the entire season is not much, but if you take it 1 or 2 steps down there will be a ton of games that you can chase.

There is something similar to this system for other sports as well. 3su and 3ats.

I'll look into that, totally different backtest than the one I did. All of mine would be included, but there will probably be more plays with yours. You will at least have as many losses as I do, maybe more. I'll try to check.

[J.M. Disciple]

I'm debating if i should just start following SBP C bets. I know for the orginal system he is 8-3 on the C bets. Its usually 8 units of total risk for the system, so if you wait until the C bet. Using the same 8-3 record he would be 8 x 8 = 64 units gain minus 3 x 9 (9 is due to the juice) = 27 which means 64-27 = 37 units in profit if you did it this way instead of betting A B and C which is only up 15 units this season.

If someone has last years record for A B and C ill figure out the math behind it.
SBP orginal is only up 1 unit on A and down 6 units on B. All the profit comes from C. Even if you risk say 6 units or 5 units you would still show more profit.

[thelimit0310]

I'm debating if i should just start following SBP C bets. I know for the orginal system he is 8-3 on the C bets. Its usually 8 units of total risk for the system, so if you wait until the C bet. Using the same 8-3 record he would be 8 x 8 = 64 units gain minus 3 x 9 (9 is due to the juice) = 27 which means 64-27 = 37 units in profit if you did it this way instead of betting A B and C which is only up 15 units this season.

If someone has last years record for A B and C ill figure out the math behind it.
SBP orginal is only up 1 unit on A and down 6 units on B. All the profit comes from C. Even if you risk say 6 units or 5 units you would still show more profit.

I agree, I have no previous data but this seasons figures show its all from C. I'm already running 2 progression systems as it is, flat betting only C will be the way to go. I would seriously doubt there was a season where the C bet underperformed. Progression bets get stronger the farther in they get.

[JW Cash]

I'm debating if i should just start following SBP C bets. I know for the orginal system he is 8-3 on the C bets. Its usually 8 units of total risk for the system, so if you wait until the C bet. Using the same 8-3 record he would be 8 x 8 = 64 units gain minus 3 x 9 (9 is due to the juice) = 27 which means 64-27 = 37 units in profit if you did it this way instead of betting A B and C which is only up 15 units this season.

If someone has last years record for A B and C ill figure out the math behind it.
SBP orginal is only up 1 unit on A and down 6 units on B. All the profit comes from C. Even if you risk say 6 units or 5 units you would still show more profit.

So...are you betting 8 Units tonight on Orl-1

[jmjj]

I forgot to mention that since the Washington game is an unofficial play for JM but since its an official play for JJ it may still worth it to load up on it everytime 2 system series overlap each other they seem to do quite well at least those 2 systems that is I cant speak for the other systems out there but those 2 do quite well together

[J.M. Disciple]

So...are you betting 8 Units tonight on Orl-1

NO i already bet A and B so just betting to win 2 units + covering my losses from A and B on orlando tonight. I wanted to see what you all thought of this theory first.

I only have this years data, so its just a theory right now. If someone can get me a spread sheet for last year on sbp ill be sure to do all the math behind it. Once i have last years data then ill start betting to win 5-8 units on SBP C bets.

I'm going to be doing the same thing for El Captains C bets ML and PL for the JM v1 system. bet to win 3 units on the ML C bets and 5 units on PL C bets. It should cut down on a lot of variance just betting when the C wagers come in. All though few and far between it seems to be little variance in it and more lucrative.

~patience is Virtue~

[J.M. Disciple]

oh I also need a spread sheet for the updated system this year. I know what the record is, but that doesn't answer the question of how many C bets there were and how A and B are doing.

Giving me spread sheets will benefit us all!

so what i need once again is.

SBP original spread sheet from last year.
SBP updated spread sheet from this year (I think this is the first year with the updated system)

Any other info you all have that i can use will be appreciative as well.

Thanks
JMD>