JW I hear yeh man.
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yes I do brian and the JJTPS is good and yes he has lost this yr and hasnt hid from it and hes already lost twice this season but we are no way near down as much as if u have been using JM v1.0 plays
it looks like we may have like 4 JJTPS plays tomm not sure just yet
also keep in mind JMv1.0 has only lost twice this season not 3 times there is a huge misnomar in this forum that we lost the Suns series we did not
also there was going to be a play tomm in JMv1.0 for the Washington/Thunder game but it cannot be freaking Washington still has the worst road record in the league still havent won a road game lol unreal manComment -
7ATS win and 7 ATS lose
09-10 record nba
WEST COAST
LOST 7 STRIAGHT ATS
03/15/10 new Orleans covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404135.html W covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore781267.html Regular Season W 2.5 [A]
11/19/10 Sac / covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404117.html W covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2010-2011/boxscore794765.html Regular Season W -3 [A]
11/26/10 GSW @ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404049.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2010-2011/boxscore795619.html Regular Season W 7 [A]
12/09/08 Minnesota vs covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404031.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2008-2009/boxscore767221.html Regular Season W 6 [A]
04/01/10 Denver vs covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403993.html W covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore781392.html Regular Season W -5 [C] *A was a push
WON 7 STRIAGHT ATS
03/04/10 phx vs covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404031.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore781184.html Regular Season L -1.5 [B]
01/13/10 @ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404101.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore780833.html Regular Season L 7.5 [A]
01/16/09 Minnesota @ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404029.html W covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2008-2009/boxscore767500.html Regular Season W 8 [B]
EAST COAST
WON 7 STRIAGHT ATS
05/16/10 Orlando vs covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404169.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore794653.html Conference Finals L -6.5 [A]
02/02/10 Milwaukee @ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404013.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore780984.html Regular Season L 9.5 [B]
03/12/10 Milwaukee covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404031.html W covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore781244.html Regular Season W -1 *********Lost series
04/10/10 Milwaukee vs covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404169.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore781462.html Regular Season L -2 [B] *A was a push
12/15/09 Detroit @ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404137.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore780626.html Regular Season L 5.5 [A]
LOST 7 STRIAGHT ATS
01/05/10 Detroit @ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404047.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore780773.html Regular Season W 8.5 [C]
04/03/10 Detroit @ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404085.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore781404.html Regular Season W 14 [D]
12/15/09 Chicago vs covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403977.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore780625.html Regular Season W 9.5 [A] *counting pushes as losses
03/16/10 Chicago @ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404049.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore781272.html Regular Season W 11 [A]
03/09/10 Toronto @ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403977.html L covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2009-2010/boxscore781223.html Regular Season W 11.5 [A]
Final Record:
17-1
A bets: 10-8
B bets: 4-4
C bets: 2-2
D bets: 1-1
In a 4 game chase through out the entire season that 1 loss make it a losing series since there were only 18 total series.Comment -
sorry I hope my understanding of the 7ATS system was correct. If they lost 7 straight ATS then they have to win / cover one of their next 4 games and if they won 7 ats then they have to lose one of their next 4 games ATS.Comment -
I posted a series loss in my Data check it out. With so few series out there Walco might be onto something with 3ats. I think 3ats is a little low. If you do 5 or 6 ATS then there are still quite a bit of series from what I seen. I think 5ats would net a nice gain.
Anyone Want to divide up the work with me and back test 5 ATS losses / wins?Comment -
We discussed this in depth earlier in the forum. This forum is ignoring the John Morrison Filters because they were put in there to cover up his losses from previous years. Playing the injury filter will end up costing you a lot of units when the series gets canceled half way through. It is a BS filter as they say. There are plenty of series that still get won ignoring this filter. As Wilba and plenty of others have said the sports books take into account injuries when ever they make their line.Comment -
5 A bet wins in a row, I picked the absolute worst time to stop betting on As. Though I suppose with the horrible win rate the As had up until now they had to bounce back sooner or later to even the percentage out. I still will stand my ground and stick with the B/C method. Like jphil said, it will pay to be patient as Wilba has shown.
JW, western chili con carne? hahahaComment -
I was trying to see if there are any games coming up for the 7ATS system. Utah has lost 6 straight ats, but there isn't any other team close yet besides them.Comment -
Yes, I feel a little better now thank youhere's your reassurance. PATIENCE. winning streaks come & go, just like the B /C bets have had. This yr. has been pretty shitty all around, so far, anyway. I believe in the prior backtesting results of the b/c method, no matter what MM sys. you choose to incorporate w/ it. I'm never looking back again at the A's, even if i don't see another B bet till next season. Feel better now.
I hope the backtesting is accurate as this thread is too long for me to search for the original post showing the results. But like you I will stand my ground and hope things turn around, like I said, the As were under-performing from their average so they had to hit a win streak at some point.
Still...*sigh*Comment -
Yes, I feel a little better now thank you I hope the backtesting is accurate as this thread is too long for me to search for the original post showing the results. But like you I will stand my ground and hope things turn around, like I said, the As were under-performing from their average so they had to hit a win streak at some point.
Still...*sigh*
Sigh!? Still!? No problem. Just take 6 qualudes & PM me when ya wake up in 2 days.
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i think that sbp is a scam did you see the e-mails ? He is sending? Also as I told you days ago I think his strategy has no point or statistical hypothesis .....I think I 'll accept the favt that I paid him waste money and I will not play his picks again or at least not in a progression betting system. I am also considering of following Wilba's advice (I Think it was wILBA)and START playing b's and c's of John MOrrison without pounting progression just flat betting. for example 5 or 10% of the bank roll every bet. However on my other account I will follow the exact Jm's system with progression (until now I ' ve lost only Utah at a c bet) and I don't if this is happening because I started late following the system (DEcember) but I am still + on my bankroll.Comment -
?What is thisComment -
wtg boston never a doubt. chicken dinna all aroundComment -
One point about the injured player filter: If you don't apply it, it only needs one team series without their best player to f**k up ATS+3 in 20 series to lose all that money. I think that possibility is a racing certainty.
Applying the filter before the A bet would probably lose approx 6 units per season. Passing on a B/C Bet with the player now injured (having lost the previous bet with the player fit) is a judgement call.
If you are a B/C player, I think it is wise to apply the filter before the B bet. If the player becomes injured after a B bet and in good time for the lines to adjust, I would play the C bet. The money has been committed at that stage.
The Phoexix series fell between 2 stools. The A bet was with Nash (?) fit. The player was then unfit for the B and C bets, so that series lost 3 units, whichever way you want to record it. I lost the full 20 units. Would I go down that same track again? Probably not. However, if the player became injured at the C bet, I think I would have used my experience of stats and played it.
Regards to allComment -
washington tomorrow. They are the leagues worst road team.Comment -
This reminds me of the JM haters that said JM's system is a scam also. I never understood the thought process behind this. How is a system a scam if it puts money in your wallet?
His system is based off 10 key point spreads that are statistically proven to win long run and used in a progression. Last year he was 80-4 i believe 2 losses coming in the play offs. Doesn't seem like a scam to me. If you look at the spread sheet you will see the same point spreads played over and over again. Just because you don't understand it doesn't make it a scam. Be careful what you say.
Here is the spread sheet for you again.
See if you can notice any key point spreads on the system. LOL
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LOL Washington is 5-16 ATS on the road. I'm def going to risk less on this series or just skip it entirely. I'm sure they will cover one of the road games though. They have lost their last 2 games ATS and they have not lost more then 4 games ATS in a row at any point in the season. There for they should cover B or C.
Gonna skip A though. GL everyone Washington +13.5 v1 [A] vs thunder.Comment -
sorry for the double post.
what i have for TPS today is:
pistons A
cavs A
wizards A
kings CComment -
JM's NBA system:
01/27/2011 Boston @ Portland - V1, A bet - WIN
01/27/2011 Houston @ Dallas - V3, A bet - WIN
V1record so far (finished series): 33-3
(A): 15-21
(B): 15-6
(C): 3-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21
V2 record so far (finished series): 16-1
(A): 12-5
(B): 2-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03
V3 record so far (finished series): 35-1
(A): 18-18
(B): 15-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
Next JM's plays:
01/28/2011 Washington @ Oklahoma City - V1, A bet
01/29/2011 Toronto @ Minnesota - V3, A bet
01/31/2011 Milwaukee @ L.A. Clippers - V1, A betComment -
You ment SBP right?This reminds me of the JM haters that said JM's system is a scam also. I never understood the thought process behind this. How is a system a scam if it puts money in your wallet?
His system is based off 10 key point spreads that are statistically proven to win long run and used in a progression. Last year he was 80-4 i believe 2 losses coming in the play offs. Doesn't seem like a scam to me. If you look at the spread sheet you will see the same point spreads played over and over again. Just because you don't understand it doesn't make it a scam. Be careful what you say.
Here is the spread sheet for you again.
See if you can notice any key point spreads on the system. LOL
Here's Rich's point spreads and what they're hitting at if you want to pick and choose. (V-1)
-1 Home 3-8 27% / -1 away 5-7 42%
-4 home 12-13 48% / -4 away 4-6 40%
-7 home 16-9 64% / -7 away 3-2 60%
+11 home 0-0 / +11 away 5-1 83%
+12 home 1-0 100% / +12 away 12-9 57%
+13 home 0-0 / +13 away 4-1 80%
Some of these you buy 1/2 point.Comment -
I tried that, but the best rate of return is on three. Look back at my previous post for previous years (A) (B) (C) and (D) wins. The large majority of wins were in (A), and second most (B). I tried waiting until the (B) to start, in essance, a 4-game losing streak, and the number of bets which won on (E) bet, which would be the (D) bet for a 4 game losing streak, didn't come close to covering our losses. There were only 4 total bets that would have won on an (F) for all five seasons combined, so taking it to a five gamer would also be a loss, since we would still have losses each season, and passed up all of previous (A), (B) bet winners, that we would have had if we stuck with a three game losing streak. This may sound confusing, but my goal when backtesting was to find just what you were asking, 3, 4, or 5 games for best profit. And because of the number of games we have available to play, vs. the lack of on a longer losing streak, and the percentage of (A) and (B) wins to offset any losses, makes the three game streaks the most profitable. Keep in mind, each season there were losses that didn't even cover through (F), so expanding it to a five game streak would have been devastating with not nearly as many wins to offset losses. And starting after a 5 game, would require at least 18 wins to offset 1 loss, and I don't even know if we would have enough bet opportunities to do this, and if we did, the profits would be minimal for the risk we are taking. I will try to post data for a 4 and five game losing streak to start system. I have all the data, just have to put it in money form. But for now, stick with three if you wish to try this out. Utah is favored by 9 tonight, they have to eventually win!
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Did anyone ever receive an email from jm on the BOS V1 [A] bet. I never heard from him and nothing yet on today's bet. I know WAS doesn't pass one of his filters cause of their road record but he usually acknowledges it.Comment -
Chase 110 - Plays for 2/28/11
2010-11 System to date: 48-0
Minnesota @ Utah M/L (D)
Boston @ Phoenix +4 (A)Comment -
Hey all you guys that backtest.....
I have posted questions before but usually get little response. I am curious as to what lines you use to backtest your info. Opening/closing? And from what book? I have been under the impression that in order to attain an accurate sample you must use a consistent source. Lines move so much throughout the day. How is it possible to be completely accurate? I'm just trying to gather the best infor so I don't waste hours backtesting for inaccurate info. Someone enlighten me please.
Thanks
JustinComment -
Basically go back to my post where I laid out the data for each year. In essance, number of bets that won on (C) + number of bets that won on (D) + Number of losses for that season = total bet opportunities for that year, if you start after a five game lose streak. The only data you would need, is how many bets would have won on an (E) bet or (F) bet, which essentially would be your (C) and (D) now. I have that info and will get it to you shortly. You won't like the results. Fortunately when I backtested I did it for three extra bets, to see when teams finally won. I don't know why I typed all that, simply the numbers next to (C) would represent all 5 game losing streaks, same as what I typed above, but easier.Comment -
has anyone tried the sportsbook john has reffered...Bet0l...i guess the site is betonline.comComment -
"Comment -
Hey Wallco just flipped you a few points for your 110 chase system. Appreciate the hard work. If it starts bringing me some more wins I'll drop some more points your way. GLComment -
Good question, Justin. My thinking is this: most of us will play a system for our own profit, regardless of the creator's spin and stats. Also, most of us choose a fairly regular time of the day to place the bets. For me, its usually 5pm (ish) UK time which will catch any early afternoon game (for most sports). So, when back testing the spreads, I look at the history of the midday (ET) spreads, which is what I would most probably have used and will most probably do in the future.
So, in essence, choose the bookie that you will use and choose the spread that was available at the time of day that you will most likely be online.
Hope this helps.
KevComment
