John Morrison 2010 NBA

[atari5200]

to all tps system followers, i really hope you made an exception with the cavs and stayed away. 80 points allowed in the first half??? this is so rough for this team and city and anyone throwing away money on them.

[J.M. Disciple]

For the season series for V2 if you played A,B,C for V2 you'd be up 7 units. If you only played B,C you'd be up 1 unit. So I'm playing A,B,C. As long as you buy the 3 points.

You are wrong sir. Just because you start from A and bet to win 1 unit doesn't mean V2 is only up 1 unit for B and C bettors who start from B.

You roughly spend 20 units investing on A B and C when it goes that far to win 1 unit. Where as B and C bettors can use the same 20 units and bet to win 3 units. There for you say you are up 7 units where as B and C bettors, betting to win 3 units are up 9 units.

[J.M. Disciple]

Heres a spread sheet for the Last time, for whoever was asking for it. It includes the Entire season of wins / losses + units won and Filters included under the notes.

I also put a W or L next to each game if they won or Lost even after the series won. I provided Info on this in earlier pages. I stated where if you were to flat bet every 3 game road series buying 3pts you would be down money, but if you flat bet Just the 2nd and 3rd game of the road series, You would be up money.

ONce again for the last time I say this as well as several others who mentioned it. I'm getting tired of repeating it to be honest so this will be the last time. TIred of wasting my time with the same questions.

1)You must buy 3pts! 1 year of back testing, does not make up for all the years you would of lost if you had not bought 3pts, unless of course you are using the labby

2) Only bet B and C betting to win 2-3 units as long as you are risking the same 20 units you would on A B C. A bets win 61% of the time and with -170 odds after buying 3pts you need 63% to win. THere for its statistically impossible to win money long run betting on A.

3) V1 V2 V3 are all profitable, so bet all 3 following B and C bets ONLY! It will give you less bets to make, but it will shower a great profit.

........................................ ........................................ ......................................

SBP post his plays around 12pm every day in the service plays. I will post them on this forum as well. its a 3 game chase with out buying pionts and thats all you need to know. Here is the spread sheet for the original system. After this post im done explaining stuff. You noobs need to learn how to do your own research. Or start throwing a bunch of points my way if you want more info.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjIgz0144ZI5dGpIeGFya1l3WmxKYXRzT3ZuTUdzYVE&hl=en#gid=2

BOL to all.

[J.M. Disciple]

1/15
JM 1-0 with Toronto
SBP updated went 1-1 picking losing early game A bet and winning his B bet on the late game.
Crusher 1-2
Crusher Football loses B bet.
Crusher Basketball won his D bet
Crusher Hockey Lost his B bet.

[Wilba]

the mavs can't score 20 in a quarter even with dirk. hmm. very funny. i'll take the loss on this one. glad i kept it cheap. it's easy to make up for a loss when you don't buy the points. great job raptors for keeping it close enough.

if the points matter in 4 out of every 100 series, you are losing money by not buying the points. Traditionally, over a large sample size, around 9 out of every 100 series you lose the series by not buying the points.

If you don't want to take my word for it I suggest you take 2-3 hours to research it. In 2-3 hours you will know what I already know, that by not buying points you are flushing your winnings away.

please keep in mind that this has nothing to do with opinion or personal preference. It is simply a statistical fact. If big losses have been made every year for 10 years (by not buying points), why would you think this year the situation would change?

Just spend 2 hours looking back through the records and save your hard earned. Understand that you don't wana take my word for it but it's very easy to check for yourself if you doubt it!

[Wilba]

For the season series for V2 if you played A,B,C for V2 you'd be up 7 units. If you only played B,C you'd be up 1 unit. So I'm playing A,B,C. As long as you buy the 3 points.

i love it when people post stuff as idiotic as this that they have clearly not researched! (especially when the season record is one post above them and the record is there for all to see )

record this season:
A's: 36 win 40 loss
B's: 29 win 11 loss
C's: 7 wins 4 loss
(4 lost series)

So, we will risk 20 units on each series for A/B/C and for B/C and see where it gets us:

for A/B/C, you risk 20 unit to win 1 unit:

when playing from A, we have 72 series win at +1 unit, and 4 series losses for -20 units:
total profit/loss = 72-80 = -8 units (quote: "you'd be up 7 units" WTF??)

when playing from B, you risk 20 units to win 3 units:

when playing from B, we have 36 series win at +3 unit, and 4 losses for -20 unit:
total profit/loss = (36 * 3) - (4 * -20) = 108 - 80 = +28 units (quote: "you'd be up 1 unit" WTF??)

SO IN SUMMARY: if you played every series this year, playing from A you are at -8 units, playing from B you are at +28 units. Hmmm.. I wonder which way is better?

[nitsuj378]

Heres a spread sheet for the Last time, for whoever was asking for it. It includes the Entire season of wins / losses + units won and Filters included under the notes.

I also put a W or L next to each game if they won or Lost even after the series won. I provided Info on this in earlier pages. I stated where if you were to flat bet every 3 game road series buying 3pts you would be down money, but if you flat bet Just the 2nd and 3rd game of the road series, You would be up money.

ONce again for the last time I say this as well as several others who mentioned it. I'm getting tired of repeating it to be honest so this will be the last time. TIred of wasting my time with the same questions.

1)You must buy 3pts! 1 year of back testing, does not make up for all the years you would of lost if you had not bought 3pts, unless of course you are using the labby

2) Only bet B and C betting to win 2-3 units as long as you are risking the same 20 units you would on A B C. A bets win 61% of the time and with -170 odds after buying 3pts you need 63% to win. THere for its statistically impossible to win money long run betting on A.

3) V1 V2 V3 are all profitable, so bet all 3 following B and C bets ONLY! It will give you less bets to make, but it will shower a great profit.

........................................ ........................................ ......................................

SBP post his plays around 12pm every day in the service plays. I will post them on this forum as well. its a 3 game chase with out buying pionts and thats all you need to know. Here is the spread sheet for the original system. After this post im done explaining stuff. You noobs need to learn how to do your own research. Or start throwing a bunch of points my way if you want more info.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjIgz0144ZI5dGpIeGFya1l3WmxKYXR zT3ZuTUdzYVE&hl=en#gid=2

BOL to all.

JM,

I was the one asking for clarification on the series results due to mine differing from what krzychu has been posting. It appears you and I have the same spreadsheet with the same discrepancies. Our spreadsheets show 78 completed series. 74-4 series record. My only question is how come our records differ from krzychu’s? This, if you look below, is 72-4.

JM's NBA system:
01/14/2011 New Jersey @ L.A. Lakers - V1, B bet - WIN
01/14/2011 Dallas @ San Antonio - V3, B bet - WIN

V1record so far (finished series): 26-2
(A): 10-18
(B): 13-5
(C): 3-2
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10

V2 record so far (finished series): 15-1
(A): 11-5
(B): 2-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 31-1
(A): 15-17
(B): 14-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07

Next JM's plays:
01/15/2011 Toronto @ Washington - V2, A bet

These results comply with Wilba’s. His show 72-4.

record this season:
A's: 36 win 40 loss
B's: 29 win 11 loss
C's: 7 wins 4 loss
(4 lost series)

I am just curious what extra series I have.

[knugen]

3 series starting tomorrow.....

[shermanator]

and what are they?

[atari5200]

if the points matter in 4 out of every 100 series, you are losing money by not buying the points. Traditionally, over a large sample size, around 9 out of every 100 series you lose the series by not buying the points.

If you don't want to take my word for it I suggest you take 2-3 hours to research it. In 2-3 hours you will know what I already know, that by not buying points you are flushing your winnings away.

please keep in mind that this has nothing to do with opinion or personal preference. It is simply a statistical fact. If big losses have been made every year for 10 years (by not buying points), why would you think this year the situation would change?

Just spend 2 hours looking back through the records and save your hard earned. Understand that you don't wana take my word for it but it's very easy to check for yourself if you doubt it!

well Wilba, I was debating on the tone of this reply to you, but seeing that most of us, including me, respect your back testing and statistical information, I wouldn't dare taking this to a negative level.

you're telling guys like stevex, wallco and obviously myself that we will get burned and this time you say that we're flushing away our money by not buying the points.

and that opinion has nothing to do with it? Stats are important, and the ones you've provided have been very useful, thanks and hope you keep it up. The regulars here really value you're contributions. I've knocked you once before for your long replies, but you've got that in check and it's all good. So i guess i gotta get to my point now.

You're opinion is to base your betting strategy solely on the stats, specifically when only betting each series with a 3 game chase and starting over on a new series with the base bet if a C bet loses. losing a chase with -180 or more odds will make it very hard to continue chasing into another series. So those who buy the points must stop right there and start fresh next time.

Now if you don't buy the points and lose, like the mavs did today, it's a lot easier to chase that C bet loss when the losses are only a small fraction compared to the conventional method. I still don't recommend chasing into a new series.

Instead a simple 1 line labby will hold on to the loss and either distribute it evenly or be used with another loss for the next series. I normally wait for a B or C to use that number on my line and use two (or sometimes one) of the smallest numbers on the line for the upcoming A bet. My labby is only there to make sure i never lose sight of the previous losses and maintain the goal of clearing that line for a gain of 2 units. (x-x-x-x = 2 units)

I include all game 3's or 4's from crusher and sbp c's or d's into this 1 line i'm using. I use a lot more than statistical knowledge to decide which numbers I will clear on my line. My numbers are never evenly distributed. Each number indicates the weight of the next bet. A higher weight must be placed when there are other factors or stats to consider, like the likelihood of JM losing 3 in a row or 2 V1's in a row or 4 crusher losses, team hot streaks, etc,..

There is also the fear and hesitation many JM betters get when chasing into a C or losing that C and continuing a chase. Sometimes the discipline falls out the window and people either over or underbet. They face higher losses or not winning enough to cover the losses. Please nod to yourself guys if you've experienced this.

I've played all JM systems in the last 3 years. I made huge profits chasing the conventional way and always bought the points. then I experienced huge losses using the exact same method. Fear and the on tilt feelings interfere with judgements and stats.

I really like your B and C method and you've got stats behind it to validate it. I'll never discredit that. I've got a method shared by others to keep the juice low and carrying over losses to an upcoming series while keeping a labby and looking to cash on our other favorite systems that fall into a 3rd of fourth game.

I kindly ask that you refrain from confidently proclaiming that some of us are burning, flushing or doing anything else with our earnings. There are a lot more details to my approach but it's based on years of understanding these systems, labby lines, martingale chasing, and also flat betting which I also make a profit from with careful bankroll management

let's continue sharing thoughts, stats, opinions and steer clear from bold statements that do not take into account the experience and knowledge that many of our guys here have learned and continue to practice.

this is going to be a good season. Let's keep it up gentlemen (and ladies?).

BOL

[linglingfool]

and what are they?

Suns, Jazz, and Pacers.

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA system:
01/15/2011 Toronto @ Washington - V2, A bet - WIN

V1record so far (finished series): 26-2
(A): 10-18
(B): 13-5
(C): 3-2
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10

V2 record so far (finished series): 16-1
(A): 12-5
(B): 2-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 31-1
(A): 15-17
(B): 14-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07

Next JM's plays:
01/17/2011 Phoenix @ New York - V1, A bet
01/17/2011 Utah @ Washington - V1, A bet
01/17/2011 Indiana @ L.A. Clippers - V1, A bet

[MakeItRain14]

Thanks krzychu

[krzychu78]

I am just curious what extra series I have.

I've been using data from covers.com for my stats. According to them first play of Dallas this season was on 10/27/10. So I didn't count Dallas series on 10/13/2010. This is one difference.

[isg2010]

Or, if you just have to play the A bets, use a ML parlay with a couple of the heavy favorites.

Today, I played PHO +3, NO ML, ATL ML, and got close to +120 odds. Very similar on the Utah series as well.

[GGPLAYER]

Guys be aware of the start times today because of MLK Day.

Pho - 1pm EST
Utah - 1pm EST
Ind - 3:30 EST

[dukipl]

3 v1 plays today GL ALL!!!

[ok15533]

SBP ealy plays picks are against the pointspread and not just to win outright. Monday's early NBA pick:
Los Angeles Clippers -3.5*
Jm nba system

1/17 Indiana [A]
LA Clippers
1/17 Phoenix [A]
New York
1/17 Utah [A]
Washington

[rkelly110]

Anyone else not receiving JM's e-mail for today? Good thing I had a list and thanks
for you guys posting.

[COYLO]

what was the spread on these games

@ rkelly i got mine ok, but i have noticed he's getting slow

[fotzan]

I did receive it normally...for V1 only....But I think there are only v1 games today is that right?

[fotzan]

I also wanted to ask... Does Th LAL game fit the SBP rules? or not? I found it at Pinnacle at - 4 for Lakers 2 hours ago

[fotzan]

And Now the Clippers went to -3,5 what must I believe for this system SBP?
Before 2 hours was at -4. What is the criteria finllay? Which spread do I have to bet on? LAL was at -4 now they are -4,5 which is the correct I am confused. I think that the factors of the SBP hypothesis are not factors because they are not stable....They are unstable variables and I think I couldn't trust them.

[fotzan]

But JM's system has stable varuables=Factors....example : Away series of 3 games.....This is stable variable a factor on which you can built a statistical or mathematical hypothesis.

[fotzan]

I don't know if you see my point.! When the-3 for example have to be bet or punt? at 3 in the morning after 2 hours? 7 in the afternoon or at 10 in the evening that it is possible that the spread has become -3.5 or 2.5? Which value is the right one. Do I have to believe the -3 and bet the game or do I have to believe the -2.5 value and not bet it?

[COYLO]

is sbp not a 3 game series also??

[COYLO]

as far as i can see you go by his original odds -3 if the odds fluctuate you buy accordingly if it drops -2.5 or -2.0 happy days if it goes -3.5 you buy the extra half point.

[rkelly110]

I also wanted to ask... Does Th LAL game fit the SBP rules? or not? I found it at Pinnacle at - 4 for Lakers 2 hours ago

I didn't get an e-mail yet on that game (after 3). It probably will be a play.
Golden state might be one too at -7.

I've been keeping track of his picks. -3.5@ home is 50%. Home -6.5
is 68%.

-1 home 3 of 10 -1 away 4 of 11
-4 home 10 of 20 -4 away 4 of 10
-7 home 15 of 22 -7 away 3 of 5
+11 none played +11 away 5 of 6
+12 home 1 of 1 +12 away 9 of 16
+13 none played +13 away 4 of 5

[knugen]

original cclippers -3,5

updated kings +10

[knugen]

damn utah sucks tonight

[knugen]

which one u gonna choose, Indiana with JM or clippers with SBP?

[fotzan]

which one u gonna choose, Indiana with JM or clippers with SBP?

they can win both

[fotzan]

For example if Indiana loses if you play SBP by money line on Clippers

[fotzan]

It looks like the play I gave out earlier on the Clippers will be the only play on the day since none of the later games fit the Original system. This is his last e-mail

[jphil]

Anyone else not receiving JM's e-mail for today? Good thing I had a list and thanks
for you guys posting.

I haven't gotten any v1 mails since 1/3. Wrote him on friday, & this was his response today:


"Upon checking, it looks like you had unsubscribed from my mailing list at precisely this time: 01/04/11 1:00pm Eastern Time. Asult of your unsubscription to my mailing list, you have not been receiving any further emails from me. I have just put you back onto my mailing list again. However, make sure that you do not hit the unsubscribe button in future emails as it would take you off of my mailing list again.

Note: It's also possible that you were automatically unsubscribed from my list if your email inbox ran out of space and began to bounce back emails to my server as undeliverable. My email management system automatically unsubscribe any email addresses that are undeliverable, which could have happened if your email service either went down or if your inbox was full and began to bounce back emails sent to you during that time."

Best regards
John Morrison, PhD


Never did either.