1 Added NBA Future Play

**ngates815** · 06-14-10, 06:43 AM

Taking lakers then betting Celtics Moneyline each game?

**Johnny 55** · 06-14-10, 06:54 AM

LT loves to back the Fakers, regardless of when the refs hand these last 2 games to the Fakers, the Celtics clearly have the better "team", they play with more heart and toughness and if Kobe can continue to make his 25 foot fallaways with a hand in his face than the Fakers will be in the game but if he cant and the Celts get a fair shake from the refs, there is no way they dont win one of these games.

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by ngates815

Taking lakers then betting Celtics Moneyline each game?

No, if I make any more bets in this series, they would be Totals or First Halves only.

**lakerboy** · 06-14-10, 08:48 AM

LT why are you so sold on the Lakers? Give me some solid basketball reasons if you can.

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 08:56 AM

Originally posted by Johnny 55

LT loves to back the Fakers, regardless of when the refs hand these last 2 games to the Fakers, the Celtics clearly have the better "team", they play with more heart and toughness and if Kobe can continue to make his 25 foot fallaways with a hand in his face than the Fakers will be in the game but if he cant and the Celts get a fair shake from the refs, there is no way they dont win one of these games.

Not true, I had Celtics Games 2 and 4. Last night was first game I lost in series.

And personally, I feel there is "no way" Lakers lose another game in LA, but we shall see. They sure put a lot of pressure on themselves by losing last night.

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

LT why are you so sold on the Lakers? Give me some solid basketball reasons if you can.

The most obvious reason is I don't expect Lakers to lose two home teams in the same series. If the Celtics could pull that off, it would mean that they are the better team and I simply don't think that's the case.

**lakerboy** · 06-14-10, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

The most obvious reason is I don't expect Lakers to lose two home teams in the same series. If the Celtics could pull that off, it would mean that they are the better team and I simply don't think that's the case.

Fair enough. Good luck with your futures- obviously i am pulling for you.

**Goat Milk** · 06-14-10, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

The most obvious reason is I don't expect Lakers to lose two home teams in the same series. If the Celtics could pull that off, it would mean that they are the better team and I simply don't think that's the case.

you shouldn't be wagering basketball with these types of reasons but GL with this I alaso will be pulling for you

**Boscoe** · 06-14-10, 09:14 AM

Thinking about taking this as well. Good luck.

**necro** · 06-14-10, 09:21 AM

Me too, should be a winner!

**soxwin** · 06-14-10, 10:17 AM

When asked your reasons, why didn't you just quote a passage from your "tim notes"?

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by soxwin

When asked your reasons, why didn't you just quote a passage from your "tim notes"?

LOL

Congrats on last night. Hopefully (for my sake), it was your last hurrah.

**Otters27** · 06-14-10, 11:06 AM

I like the pick Lt I hope to find lower odds to get this one.

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

you shouldn't be wagering basketball with these types of reasons but GL with this I alaso will be pulling for you

Then forget about the basketball reasons and look at the value. If the Lakers have a no-vig ML of -275 both games, this play is slightly +EV. (-116.3)

Not much of an edge but make the same play over and over and you'll be alright.

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by Otters27

I like the pick Lt I hope to find lower odds to get this one.

I doubt it goes down considering the ML on Lakers Game 6 has risen at Pinny.

**Goat Milk** · 06-14-10, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Then forget about the basketball reasons and look at the value. If the Lakers have a no-vig ML of -275 both games, this play is slightly +EV. (-116.3)

Not much of an edge but make the same play over and over and you'll be alright.

well if you like the lakers to win game 6 this is a good bet because if LA wins game 6 they will win game 7 by 20+. I cannot forget about the basketball reasons thats how i make my money

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

well if you like the lakers to win game 6 this is a good bet because if LA wins game 6 they will win game 7 by 20+. I cannot forget about the basketball reasons thats how i make my money

And you expect the Celtics to win a second game in LA Game 6?

That is basically what it comes down to.

And like I said lots of times, you don't have to know anything about a sport to make money at it. Find a book that has rogue lines on Swedish Soccer and you can make a fortune just betting the numbers.

**Goat Milk** · 06-14-10, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

And you expect the Celtics to win a second game in LA Game 6?

That is basically what it comes down to.

And like I said lots of times, you don't have to know anything about a sport to make money at it. Find a book that has rogue lines on Swedish Soccer and you can make a fortune just betting the numbers.

Celtics only chance to win the series is game 6. The books will clean up game 6 and (if there is 1) game 7. So many sucker bets about to come in.

**Snowball** · 06-14-10, 12:20 PM

-118 is a joke of a payout for the Lakers to win 2 in a row.

you will lose like last night.

good luck LT.

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

-118 is a joke of a payout for the Lakers to win 2 in a row.

you will lose like last night.

good luck LT.

First, I got -115, not -118, and as I posted above, it is a +EV bet assuming two -275 no vig lines at HOME, so the line is far from a joke.

Second, it is already up to -120 at 5 Dimes, so chances are great I will beat the closing line.

**suicidekings** · 06-14-10, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

-118 is a joke of a payout for the Lakers to win 2 in a row.

What are you basing that on Snowball? LT's numbers are right on. Where would you place a fair line on the Lakers winning 6&7?

**Fischnasty** · 06-14-10, 03:51 PM

good luck LT. no play here but hope lakers win.

**foosh99** · 06-14-10, 03:56 PM

lakers

**yisman** · 06-14-10, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

well if you like the lakers to win game 6 this is a good bet because if LA wins game 6 they will win game 7 by 20+. I cannot forget about the basketball reasons thats how i make my money

I disagree with this. If the Lakers win game 6, Game 7 will not be a huge blowout either way.

**Snowball** · 06-14-10, 05:25 PM

I didn't mean whether LT got -115 or -118 or -120 it could go higher, that's not my point.

I just think it's thoroughly ridiculous for the Lakers to be a less-than-even bet to win two games in a row.

**Wilforth** · 06-14-10, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

I didn't mean whether LT got -115 or -118 or -120 it could go higher, that's not my point.

I just think it's thoroughly ridiculous for the Lakers to be a less-than-even bet to win two games in a row.

That's the way I see it too.

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 05:43 PM

Why? They are hone for both games and will have a no vig line around -275 each time. That makes the fair price -116.3, as stated earlier. If Lakers were + odds, they would be a HUGE overlay.

**HoulihansTX** · 06-14-10, 05:48 PM

This seems hard-headed. You already have a ticket on the Lakers failboat, why buy another one?

On the other hand you a pro, and know what you are doing, so Good luck.

**LT Profits** · 06-14-10, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

This seems hard-headed. You already have a ticket on the Lakers failboat, why buy another one?

On the other hand you a pro, and know what you are doing, so Good luck.

You should press any time you get a +EV situation.

Oh and Lakers were -125 at last check.

**mozomboking** · 06-14-10, 06:02 PM

let the rock decide

**suicidekings** · 06-14-10, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

I didn't mean whether LT got -115 or -118 or -120 it could go higher, that's not my point.

I just think it's thoroughly ridiculous for the Lakers to be a less-than-even bet to win two games in a row.

Are you questioning the proposed (-275) zero-vig ML for the Lakers in each game? Or the efficiency of the NBA market? The (-275) line implies a (-116) series price and a 53.7% chance of the Lakers winning both games.

The probability of Boston winning games 4 & 5, based on the closing zero-vig lines of -170 & -120 was 35.5% = +181, but the Lakers' HCA is much stronger than the Celtics was.

**PAULYPOKER** · 06-14-10, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

The most obvious reason is I don't expect Lakers to lose two home teams in the same series. If the Celtics could pull that off, it would mean that they are the better team and I simply don't think that's the case.

Remember though LT they are playing the Celtics and history always rewrites itself when these 2 teams play and the history is always in the Celtics favor........

**wrongturn** · 06-14-10, 06:24 PM

Basically if you like LA to win game 6, better betting LA series -115 or similar than -275 on ML.

**suicidekings** · 06-14-10, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Remember though LT they are playing the Celtics and history always rewrites itself when these 2 teams play and the history is always in the Celtics favor........

Yes... Always.