Why did the game 2 spread go up??

**michalis** · 06-04-10, 06:14 AM

well, if the line is -5 in one game and the favorite covers ease, then reducing the number or even leaving it the same is financial suicide

lakers just beat boston by 13 at home, and there is an identical game in the same stadium a few hours later, what will change by then that can result in a big variance in the scoreline?

**ngates815** · 06-04-10, 06:16 AM

^^^^Exactly...I don't know what the number is, but will probably be 6.5-7....I'll take Boston if thats the case.

**3PtShooter** · 06-04-10, 06:23 AM

dont see boston being the fav in any of the games

**Sportsbetting123** · 06-04-10, 06:32 AM

If Lakers go up 2-0, Boston will be something like a 1 or 2 pt fav in game 3.

**thebestthereis** · 06-04-10, 06:43 AM

Boston cannot play worse they did not show up in game 1. I know it and they know it; if they lose game 2 goodnight series over. Lakers played well Celtics were still on Hollywood Blvd doing who knows what last night. Celtics +6 Game 2 with some jimmys on the moneyline for good measure.

**PAULYPOKER** · 06-04-10, 06:46 AM

I thought you explained already in coins thread here it is>>>>

Originally posted by Sunde91

Spreads usually adjust in accordance with bounce back trends on a 2 game home stand.

If Home team loses game 1, the spread will go up as it's likely they will bounce back to win and then some.

If Away team loses game 1, the spread usually goes down as a win for a split is often probable while a closer game is very likely.

**bobspicks** · 06-04-10, 06:49 AM

It didn't go up it opened at 6 just like last time.

**WhiteEagle** · 06-04-10, 06:51 AM

I expect spreed around 6,5 and I will bet Boston probably, they play realy bad in Game 1.
Think about under, it was lucky in Game 1.

**PAULYPOKER** · 06-04-10, 06:57 AM

BOSTON ML is GOLD..........................I hope, but there will be a great deal more of line investigation before I decide though..............................

**excel** · 06-04-10, 07:10 AM

I think boston can do it

**Sheep** · 06-04-10, 08:16 AM

Line opened LAL -6, I m sure it will go up 1 - 2 points

**Sunde91** · 06-04-10, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by michalis

well, if the line is -5 in one game and the favorite covers ease, then reducing the number or even leaving it the same is financial suicide

lakers just beat boston by 13 at home, and there is an identical game in the same stadium a few hours later, what will change by then that can result in a big variance in the scoreline?

The point is Vegas almost always anticipates the team that lost game 1 to bounce back and either win SU, or make it much closer than game 1.

The fact that they made it higher, though it will probably close at the same at 5.5, tells me they're disrespecting Boston and that they can't hang with the Lakers.

The spread should be a minimum of -4.5 or -4 Lakers IF the teams were more percieved to be more competitive.

**brandonlang** · 06-04-10, 12:41 PM

celtics will take game 2

**coloradobuff** · 06-04-10, 01:28 PM

lakers were way better team game 1, thats why spread went up a bit..

**SparJMU** · 06-04-10, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by 3PtShooter

dont see boston being the fav in any of the games

I find this very hard to believe. They won't be favored slightly in game 3?

**SparJMU** · 06-04-10, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

The point is Vegas almost always anticipates the team that lost game 1 to bounce back and either win SU, or make it much closer than game 1.

The fact that they made it higher, though it will probably close at the same at 5.5, tells me they're disrespecting Boston and that they can't hang with the Lakers.

The spread should be a minimum of -4.5 or -4 Lakers IF the teams were more percieved to be more competitive.

That's a very interesting point Sunde. Does anyone have data from prior finals series to prove/disprove this theory.

**LT Profits** · 06-04-10, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by 3PtShooter

dont see boston being the fav in any of the games

Celtics will be -2.5 in Boston.

**LT Profits** · 06-04-10, 03:18 PM

And the Game 2 line did not go up, it opened at -6, the exact same line Game 1 both opened and closed at.

And I think the Game 2 line will hold pretty steady too. If anything, it may DROP to -5.5! That's why I am saying take the Celtics +6 now.

**Foals** · 06-04-10, 04:35 PM

Like the Celtics ML here GL

**jureslo** · 06-04-10, 04:52 PM

Because lakers will win again.

**Goat Milk** · 06-04-10, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by 3PtShooter

dont see boston being the fav in any of the games

100% false

**alukk** · 06-04-10, 05:04 PM

As LT said, the spread didnt go up

**Sunde91** · 06-04-10, 05:07 PM

As LT said, the spread didnt go up

I don't know if I was tired last night or what, but I thought I saw it at 6.5

**PAULYPOKER** · 06-04-10, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

100% false

Goat why would you even answer a clueless beyond belief post like that..........

**Scorpion** · 06-04-10, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

The point is Vegas almost always anticipates the team that lost game 1 to bounce back and either win SU, or make it much closer than game 1.

The fact that they made it higher, though it will probably close at the same at 5.5, tells me they're disrespecting Boston and that they can't hang with the Lakers.

The spread should be a minimum of -4.5 or -4 Lakers IF the teams were more percieved to be more competitive.

Or they know much more will be bet on LA than Boston

**SparJMU** · 06-04-10, 11:36 PM

Anyone have access to prior finals and their spreads? It would be interesting to see.

**Sunde91** · 06-04-10, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Anyone have access to prior finals and their spreads? It would be interesting to see.

The 2008 Finals went:

6/5 Boston W -3 98-88 H 192U
6/8 Boston W +1 108-102 H 191O
6/10 Boston W +9' 81-87 V 195U
6/12 Boston W +7' 97-91 V 192U
6/15 Boston W +7 98-103 V 192O
6/17 Boston W -4' 131-92 H 191O

Wow, Boston covered every game.

Vegas gave Lakers huge respect in that series. A 4 point swing after game 1 and then a +9 spread in game 3? Really?

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**LT Profits** · 06-05-10, 12:37 AM

9-point difference is not unusual, home court for elite teams like this can be as much as 5 points.

**LT Profits** · 06-05-10, 12:38 AM

The real telling thing in 08 was that Boston was a 1-point HOME DOG in Game 2 after winning Game 1 as a 3-point fave.

**fresnosurf** · 06-05-10, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by michalis

well, if the line is -5 in one game and the favorite covers ease, then reducing the number or even leaving it the same is financial suicide

lakers just beat boston by 13 at home, and there is an identical game in the same stadium a few hours later, what will change by then that can result in a big variance in the scoreline?

Thats a negative. Usually, Vegas opens the same or brings the line down even after a destruction by the lakers. The only time a line goes up is closeout games. But the line is just getting pushed upwards as the Lakers are dominating every aspect game 1. Kobe is on a mission.

Lakers will take at least 1 game in Boston.