LA-Celtics Under

**donkdown** · 06-03-10, 10:35 AM

free pts

**I.L.S** · 06-03-10, 11:26 AM

great analyze...as it seems the series is gonna be very defensive ,like u said score range between 180-190.

but there is a catch , the series with cavs was avereged 195.5 pts , cavs r also defensive team , and 3 games in cleveland averaged 197.3 pts . if u take a look at the series vs orlando , 5/6 games were under 192 , the line could be tricky but im with u'r opinion .

gl SparJMU , and gl to all!

**msully2888** · 06-03-10, 11:41 AM

just bet the celtics to win it all

**balman** · 06-03-10, 11:53 AM

great info.. your right a 195-199 would good value. but 191 is close to what you will get in the this game.. even though both teams are very good defenisvely they are both capable of scoring... for me no play on the O/U until i watch game 1... best value bet i see is celtics ml +200

**bankjob** · 06-03-10, 11:56 AM

Never bet the under in game 1 of any series, it's a rookie mistake. Either take the over in game 1 or stay away. The more this series moves on, the more the defense takes precedent. The under plays should be reserved as the series extends, which this one no doubt will.

I would take these past stats and throw them out. The NBA has a huge agenda here and that is extending the series as long as possible AND making the games as entertaining as possible. This means most likely high scoring scenarios to start the series.

You think the NBA wants a 90-85 type score in this game tonight???

I will say the winning team scores at least 105 which will be the Lakers

**Kinder** · 06-03-10, 12:24 PM

With you on this one too, BOL

**SparJMU** · 06-03-10, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by bankjob

Never bet the under in game 1 of any series, it's a rookie mistake. Either take the over in game 1 or stay away. The more this series moves on, the more the defense takes precedent. The under plays should be reserved as the series extends, which this one no doubt will.

Interesting information. Do you have stats to back this up?

**SparJMU** · 06-03-10, 12:34 PM

Limited sample...........

2009 Finals Game 1: O/U 206 - Total was 175. UNDER
2008 Finals Game 1: O/U 191 - Total was 186. UNDER
2007 Finals Game 1: O/U 179.5 - Total was 161. UNDER

**BookieOweMe** · 06-03-10, 12:46 PM

under seems like the safest bet

**bankjob** · 06-03-10, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Interesting information. Do you have stats to back this up?

Just a strategy I have used in the past several years. Never bet an under in game 1.

10-4 to the OVER this year in game 1's.

April 17 Utah Jazz 113@ Denver Nuggets 126 OVER
April 18 San Antonio Spurs 94@ Dallas Mavericks 100 OVER
April 18 Portland Trail Blazers 105@ Phoenix Suns 100 OVER
April 18 Oklahoma City Thunder 79@ Los Angeles Lakers 87 UNDER
April 17 Milwaukee Bucks 92@ Atlanta Hawks 102 OVER
April 17 Miami Heat 76@ Boston Celtics 85 UNDER
April 17 Chicago Bulls 83@ Cleveland Cavaliers 96 UNDER
April 18 Charlotte Bobcats 89@ Orlando Magic 98 OVER
May 1 Boston Celtics 93@ Cleveland Cavaliers 101 OVER
May 2 Utah Jazz 99@ Los Angeles Lakers 104 OVER
May 3 San Antonio Spurs 102@ Phoenix Suns 111 OVER
May 4 Atlanta Hawks 71@ Orlando Magic 114 OVER
May 17 Phoenix Suns 107@ Los Angeles Lakers 128 OVER
May 16 Boston Celtics 92@ Orlando Magic 88 UNDER

**nobs** · 06-03-10, 12:59 PM

I love the under as well

**SparJMU** · 06-03-10, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by bankjob

Just a strategy I have used in the past several years. Never bet an under in game 1.

10-4 to the OVER this year in game 1's.

April 17 Utah Jazz 113@ Denver Nuggets 126 OVER
April 18 San Antonio Spurs 94@ Dallas Mavericks 100 OVER
April 18 Portland Trail Blazers 105@ Phoenix Suns 100 OVER
April 18 Oklahoma City Thunder 79@ Los Angeles Lakers 87 UNDER
April 17 Milwaukee Bucks 92@ Atlanta Hawks 102 OVER
April 17 Miami Heat 76@ Boston Celtics 85 UNDER
April 17 Chicago Bulls 83@ Cleveland Cavaliers 96 UNDER
April 18 Charlotte Bobcats 89@ Orlando Magic 98 OVER
May 1 Boston Celtics 93@ Cleveland Cavaliers 101 OVER
May 2 Utah Jazz 99@ Los Angeles Lakers 104 OVER
May 3 San Antonio Spurs 102@ Phoenix Suns 111 OVER
May 4 Atlanta Hawks 71@ Orlando Magic 114 OVER
May 17 Phoenix Suns 107@ Los Angeles Lakers 128 OVER
May 16 Boston Celtics 92@ Orlando Magic 88 UNDER

That's really good stuff bnkjob, thanks.

**bankjob** · 06-03-10, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

That's really good stuff bnkjob, thanks.

No problem, glad to help. I myself am not touching the total in this game as I see more value in the side. However there are actually some really good points you bring up in this thread to take the under, but as you see it's just not smart to do so in game 1 of any series. I will also say, all 3 refs favor the under tonight as well so you can add that to the list that supports the under.

I will watch this series go to 5, 6, or 7 games and reevaluate the under at that time.

Good luck to everyone in whatever they bet tonight!

**I.L.S** · 06-03-10, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by bankjob

Just a strategy I have used in the past several years. Never bet an under in game 1.

10-4 to the OVER this year in game 1's.

April 17 Utah Jazz 113@ Denver Nuggets 126 OVER
April 18 San Antonio Spurs 94@ Dallas Mavericks 100 OVER
April 18 Portland Trail Blazers 105@ Phoenix Suns 100 OVER
April 18 Oklahoma City Thunder 79@ Los Angeles Lakers 87 UNDER
April 17 Milwaukee Bucks 92@ Atlanta Hawks 102 OVER
April 17 Miami Heat 76@ Boston Celtics 85 UNDER
April 17 Chicago Bulls 83@ Cleveland Cavaliers 96 UNDER
April 18 Charlotte Bobcats 89@ Orlando Magic 98 OVER
May 1 Boston Celtics 93@ Cleveland Cavaliers 101 OVERhttp://forum.sbrforum.com/images/smilies/20090121/lock.gif
May 2 Utah Jazz 99@ Los Angeles Lakers 104 OVER
May 3 San Antonio Spurs 102@ Phoenix Suns 111 OVER
May 4 Atlanta Hawks 71@ Orlando Magic 114 OVER
May 17 Phoenix Suns 107@ Los Angeles Lakers 128 OVER
May 16 Boston Celtics 92@ Orlando Magic 88 UNDER

you might be right with this claims but its a different teams with different strategy , though i think the current line is a tricky one , i agree its not a big

, for today defence is the main event , one lose & lakers r in trouble , so bet on under or stay away. lets see what the black mamba cooked for tonight .

good luck with ur bets for tonight , i combined lakers-money line with another bet.

**only_one** · 06-03-10, 02:56 PM

agree that under is good bet...

**xxxvince** · 06-03-10, 05:28 PM

under looks good with all the stat presented.. under was good last 3 years for the first game, this year yeah more games went over for the 1st game but look at the matchups!

**Alfred0** · 06-03-10, 05:32 PM

i think this could go over easy

**SparJMU** · 06-03-10, 11:11 PM

GREAT NIGHT!!!!

Bet Under 192.5 $630 to win $600. With halftime total of 91 I bet 2nd Half over 95 $330 to win $300 for a hedge.

HIT THEM BOTH. $900 NIGHT.

Thanks everyone for the feedback.

**bankjob** · 06-04-10, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

GREAT NIGHT!!!! Bet Under 192.5 $630 to win $600. With halftime total of 91 I bet 2nd Half over 95 $330 to win $300 for a hedge. HIT THEM BOTH. $900 NIGHT. Thanks everyone for the feedback.

Good job at shopping the quality number for this game. I know Kobe burned a lot of late Under backers with that meaningless 3 pointer, because the total was at 190.5 an hour before game-time. I was very tempted to take the over when I saw it that low, but just pounded the Lakers -5.5 instead.

Great call on the Under!

**Kinder** · 06-04-10, 09:44 AM

Good call man, You won big.

I took under 192 just for 1unit though, Was getting scared there towards the end of the game. Close one .

**nobs** · 06-04-10, 01:16 PM

Nice
Call
and
nice
winner

**SparJMU** · 06-10-10, 07:21 AM

I wish I had read my own thread again before game 3. After I hit game 1 big I stopped playing the totals because I didn't want to get greedy.

I think both teams will be much more aggresive offensively tonight so I am tentative again to play the under, but its hard to ever justify betting over 190 in this series. Game 2 only hit 197 despite Boston hitting 11-16 from 3 and 58 fouls being called.

My advice would be continue to check in game lines and see if you can find a nice spot.

**bankjob** · 06-10-10, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

I wish I had read my own thread again before game 3. After I hit game 1 big I stopped playing the totals because I didn't want to get greedy.

I think both teams will be much more aggresive offensively tonight so I am tentative again to play the under, but its hard to ever justify betting over 190 in this series. Game 2 only hit 197 despite Boston hitting 11-16 from 3 and 58 fouls being called.

My advice would be continue to check in game lines and see if you can find a nice spot.

What is your opinion of Boston going OVER 97? Just seems like a good spot to see them score some points. We still haven't seen a complete game where the Big 3 have complimented each other. There has been some foul trouble or just cold shooting. Look at Ray Allen only 2 points in Game 3 and KG only a few points in game 2.

I am thinking on this one, just want more insight. Thanks!

**SparJMU** · 06-11-10, 07:47 AM

Sorry I missed this, hopefully you didn't go too big on that. Missing it by a single point would have sucked bad.

So fare the Under is 3-1 through 4 games, I hope people read the first post in this thread and are making some cash.

**bankjob** · 06-11-10, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Sorry I missed this, hopefully you didn't go too big on that. Missing it by a single point would have sucked bad.

So fare the Under is 3-1 through 4 games, I hope people read the first post in this thread and are making some cash.

No worries. Didn't lose much, but do hate losing that way. Keep posting your opinion here on the totals. Do you believe every game is going under in this series from here out?

**rthoughton** · 06-11-10, 09:06 AM

I like what the celtics are doing.

**SparJMU** · 06-11-10, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by bankjob

No worries. Didn't lose much, but do hate losing that way. Keep posting your opinion here on the totals. Do you believe every game is going under in this series from here out?

It's funny because I don't have a ton of confidence posting my picks because I never want to give someone bad advice, so when I posted my opinion on the series and then hit game 1 as big as I did, I kind of considered it my big win and stopped focusing on it. I did approach game 3 the same way as game 1, but my halftime hedge didn't hit and my I only profited about $100 on the game.

However my observation going forward..........The line at 194 was dead wrong and there is no debating that. Accordingly, Vegas has adjusted all the way down to 188 at this point so we have lost value and the bet is not nearly as strong.

Under 188 is a decent bet in my opinion as I stated in the first post I expect totals in the 180s. Look at what the linesmakers are doing here, they are admitting they were wrong at 194 and coming down. Compare that to the LA-PHX series....The first 4 games all went well over the game 1 line of 210, and Vegas increased its line accordingly from 210 to 216.5, 220, and 219. Then mysteriously in game 5 they dropped the line 3 points to 216 despite 4 straight convincing overs. Vegas knew LA was going to come out in game 5 with intense defense, and the total ended at 204.......significantly less than any other game.

Here the line continues to drop, which I think is a good sign, although again we lost value which hurts. And speaking from observation of the series, I think both teams are wearing down, especially Boston who is relying heavily on their young bench late in the game. I don't think Big Baby and Nate are going to put up 30 between them again in game 5.

Unfortunately if you look at the numbers in the first post, 188 seems to be almost spot on. My focus going forward will still be the under, but not nearly as heavy.

**szk1983** · 06-11-10, 12:46 PM

4th quarter was crazy! 63 points!

**cashman** · 06-11-10, 01:25 PM

I wish I took the under...................

**bankjob** · 06-11-10, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

It's funny because I don't have a ton of confidence posting my picks because I never want to give someone bad advice, so when I posted my opinion on the series and then hit game 1 as big as I did, I kind of considered it my big win and stopped focusing on it. I did approach game 3 the same way as game 1, but my halftime hedge didn't hit and my I only profited about $100 on the game.

However my observation going forward..........The line at 194 was dead wrong and there is no debating that. Accordingly, Vegas has adjusted all the way down to 188 at this point so we have lost value and the bet is not nearly as strong.

Under 188 is a decent bet in my opinion as I stated in the first post I expect totals in the 180s. Look at what the linesmakers are doing here, they are admitting they were wrong at 194 and coming down. Compare that to the LA-PHX series....The first 4 games all went well over the game 1 line of 210, and Vegas increased its line accordingly from 210 to 216.5, 220, and 219. Then mysteriously in game 5 they dropped the line 3 points to 216 despite 4 straight convincing overs. Vegas knew LA was going to come out in game 5 with intense defense, and the total ended at 204.......significantly less than any other game.

Here the line continues to drop, which I think is a good sign, although again we lost value which hurts. And speaking from observation of the series, I think both teams are wearing down, especially Boston who is relying heavily on their young bench late in the game. I don't think Big Baby and Nate are going to put up 30 between them again in game 5.

Unfortunately if you look at the numbers in the first post, 188 seems to be almost spot on. My focus going forward will still be the under, but not nearly as heavy.

Right here with you. The longer this series moves on, the more defensive it gets and the lower the scores get. The Celtics are also a bit older. In addition the Lakers have Bynum who is banged up. These players are starting to show some wear and tear. Boston played like shit last night, well the starting 5, and still won by 10 points in a low scoring game. Kobe didn't get much help.

**SparJMU** · 06-14-10, 09:36 AM

Under is now 4-1 in the series. Feels good.

**nbarlotta3** · 06-14-10, 10:04 AM

I don't know how Boston keeps winning. They always have 1 good quarter that kills the Lakers.

**ThisGuy** · 06-14-10, 10:59 AM

I like the over 187.5 for game 6

**SparJMU** · 06-16-10, 07:57 AM

5 - 1. I hope everyone is cashing in on this as much as I am. Bankjob did you ride game 6? After chickening out in some early games I went at game 6 BIG. That was the easiest money I have made in a long time.