Do you like this strategy?

suicidekings · 06-02-10, 02:35 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

(Keep in mind I'm not a high roller like some of you):

$100 on Lakers to win the series at -180 (to win $56)
$25 on Lakers to win series in 5 (+400 to win $100)
$31.25 on Lakers to win series in 6 (+300 to win $93.75)

Now of course, worst case scenario is Boston wins and I'm out the $156.25 for the series.

If the Lakers win in 4 or 7 games, I basically break even (down 25 cents).
If the Lakers win in 6 games, I'm up $124.75
If the Lakers win in 5 games, I'm up $124.75

Thoughts?

Adjusted as shown. However, +400 for Lakers is 5 is WAY off market. It's around +800 elsewhere. You're leaving money on the table.

Same strategy using +800 odds for the 5 game win nets you $144 for a win in 5/6 based on a $150 flat investment or equivalent odds of about (-104)

Slim · 06-02-10, 06:26 AM

Boston will piss on LA

LT Profits · 06-02-10, 07:24 AM

Series will go at least 6 games, so Lakers in 5 is worthless.

SparJMU · 06-02-10, 07:28 AM

If you like LA that much, than why aren't you just betting them to win the series straight up?

And I have to agree with LT, this series will go beyond 5 games. These teams are very evenly matched and LA is not winning 4-1.

LT Profits · 06-02-10, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

If you like LA that much, than why aren't you just betting them to win the series straight up?

And I have to agree with LT, this series will go beyond 5 games. These teams are very evenly matched and LA is not winning 4-1.

That's not really the reason it goes at least 6 though.

I can't say any more.

suicidekings · 06-02-10, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

If you like LA that much, than why aren't you just betting them to win the series straight up?

Because if you can predict the # of games in the series, you can dramatically improve on your payout. A hedge of Lakers in 6 (+325) & Lakers in 7 (+280) pays out at (+100), which is a fair bit better than (-185)...

SparJMU · 06-02-10, 08:27 AM

Sure, but now you are eliminating Lakers in 4 and Lakers and 5. Personally I think it goes longer than 5, but what do I know?

The author of this thread seems very intent that LA is going to win. If I felt that strongly about it I would want to have LA in all scenarios, not just 4-2 and 4-3.

cornhuskfan · 06-02-10, 09:09 AM

best of luck but i never liked series prices due to the unknown

sharpcat · 06-02-10, 10:09 AM

if lakers win in 4 or 7 you are risking $150 to win $6 on the lakers.

IMO if you are going to bet the 5 and 6 you would be better off just betting those 2 alone

LT Profits · 06-02-10, 10:18 AM

I think predicting this series goes at least 6 games is a better bet than trying to pick a winner at the current odds. I actually love what Sawyer did here.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/510473-really-liked-bet-lakers-vs-celtics-series-over-5-games-194-a.html#post4846993

suicidekings · 06-02-10, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Sure, but now you are eliminating Lakers in 4 and Lakers and 5. Personally I think it goes longer than 5, but what do I know?

The author of this thread seems very intent that LA is going to win. If I felt that strongly about it I would want to have LA in all scenarios, not just 4-2 and 4-3.

Implied Probabilities (Based on Pinnacle Odds)

Boston 4-0: 3.7%
Boston 4-1: 10.5%
Boston 4-2: 9.5%
Boston 4-3: 11.3%
LA 4-0: 7.6%
LA 4-1: 10.5%
LA 4-2: 21.2%
LA 4-3: 25.7%

LA in 6 or 7 games constitutes about 47% probability, with Boston in 6/7 making up another 21% for a combined 68% implied likelihood that the series ends in 6/7 games. The books are expecting a finish of at least 6/7 games and I agree.

suicidekings · 06-02-10, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I this predicting this series goes at least 6 games is a better bet than trying to pick a winner at the current odds. I actually love what Sawyer did here.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...mes-194-a.html

If those fat odds are still available anywhere, absolutely. The best I can see (I haven't looked everywhere) combines for -255 or worse. Sawyer definitely made a great move.

LT Profits · 06-02-10, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

If those fat odds are still available anywhere, absolutely. The best I can see (I haven't looked everywhere) combines for -255 or worse. Sawyer definitely made a great move.

That's OK, we can still make a lot of money by betting the team that us trailing in the series starting with Game 2.

SparJMU · 06-02-10, 10:49 AM

LT, it seems like you have a very strong opinion on how this series will unfold. I think we agree on the eventual outcome, but I would love to hear your rationale.

suicidekings · 06-02-10, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

That's OK, we can still make a lot of money by betting the team that us trailing in the series starting with Game 2.

The O5.5/6 for (-174) looks nice as well.