Can anyone explain to me WHY they think the Heat will win tonight? (4/23)

freeVICK · 04-23-10, 03:04 PM

their D will win this game

sweetjones55 · 04-23-10, 03:08 PM

Easy answer to this question. The Heat have lost 7 straight to the Celtics. In all seven games they were underdog. Tonight they are favored so they will win. (The last time the Heat were favored they beat Boston SU and ATS)

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Easy answer to this question. The Heat have lost 7 straight to the Celtics. In all seven games they were underdog. Tonight they are favored so they will win. (The last time the Heat were favored they beat Boston SU and ATS)

This really doesn't speak to the matchup itself. The Heat were never going to be home dogs in this game... Where the line is set shouldn't really be the sole reason to support a team.

I'm looking for specific ways the Heat can attack Boston to overcome the matchup issues that have dominated their previous games this season.

lakerboy · 04-23-10, 03:19 PM

I have no play on this game but if i was playing the game i would take the heat. Its the nba you cant give reasons. Williams asked the same question about the cavs yesterday and i will give you the same answer. There is no reason to take the heat other than they got blown out last game and could have won game 1. The first game was more indicative of the matchup. Also how many times have we seen teams lose the first two games on the road and win game 3 at home in the nba playoffs?

Teams coming home down 2-0 in game 3 are 25-11 since 2006. The numbers get even better if you go further back.

SparJMU · 04-23-10, 03:25 PM

Kings, I try to keep a very objective opinion about the NBA. I don't think Boston or Miami is especially great this year and certainly have no bias either way. Unfortunately this leaves me with a very non-technical way of thinking, but so far this NBA playoff it has been treating me very well.

I think on any given night Boston is probably 4 or 5 points better than Miami on a neutral court. They a better all around team, with more playoff experience, and in a game 7 scenario I would have my money on Boston to pull it out. However, this is not game 7. This is game 3, first game on the road for Boston, against a Miami team who is playing for their season. Just like last night's #1 vs. #8 matchups, the better team may not win tonight. Do I think -4 is an inflated line, Yes. But I also think Miami has enough talent and enough heart to turn this into a series instead of a sweep.

Quick disclaimer: I hit OKC and CHC HUGE last night based on this line of thinking, so I am not going to get greedy and blow it all away on MIA. But if a thought process isn't broke, don't fix it. Desperate teams find ways to win, especially teams with superstars like Dwayne Wade.

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I have no play on this game but if i was playing the game i would take the heat. Its the nba you cant give reasons. Williams asked the same question about the cavs yesterday and i will give you the same answer. There is no reason to take the heat other than they got blown out last game and could have won game 1. The first game was more indicative of the matchup. Also how many times have we seen teams lose the first two games on the road and win game 3 at home in the nba playoffs?

Teams coming home down 2-0 in game 3 are 25-11 since 2006. The numbers get even better if you go further back.

Valid points. When I look at all the current series going on, I see the Heat as one of the most likely to go down 3-0 because they've been the team that's suffered the most at the hands of their opponent this season. Even the Bobcats beat Orlando at home this year, and the Bulls won in Cleveland...

HoulihansTX · 04-23-10, 03:31 PM

Celtics stats for Game 2

Love to see them replicate that kind of performance on the road. Those stats were ridiculous.

Also Heat have played, and beat the NBA's elite at home this season as the season near its end. @ Home wins against Orlando 3/18 & 12/17/ Lakers 3/04/ Hawks 3/06 & 1/04/ To name a few. This game might as well be game 7 for Miami.

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

[I][B]
Also Heat have played, and beat the NBA's elite at home this season as the season near its end. @ Home wins against Orlando 3/18 & 12/17/ Lakers 3/04/ Hawks 3/06 & 1/04/ To name a few. This game might as well be game 7 for Miami.

The Heat were 13-27 against teams this season that finished the year with a winning record, with 15 of those losses being by 10 points or more. Their final 9-1 stretch run were all against sub .500 teams, so IMO, they're very fortunate to not be facing Orlando or Cleveland right now.

sweetjones55 · 04-23-10, 03:35 PM

Honestly forget the matchup. You aren't going to find a huge mismatch problem all of a sudden that Vegas doesn't know about. Vegas is telling you who is going to win, just trust them and know that they know 100 times more whatever you and I think we know. It's just one of those plays..

Originally posted by lakerboy

I have no play on this game but if i was playing the game i would take the heat. Its the nba you cant give reasons. Williams asked the same question about the cavs yesterday and i will give you the same answer. There is no reason to take the heat other than they got blown out last game and could have won game 1. The first game was more indicative of the matchup. Also how many times have we seen teams lose the first two games on the road and win game 3 at home in the nba playoffs?

Teams coming home down 2-0 in game 3 are 25-11 since 2006. The numbers get even better if you go further back.

I am guessing this is SU correct?

superjeff24 · 04-23-10, 03:37 PM

The Heat lost even with Garnett out of the lineup. Can they really win a game this series? The ML can sometimes be deceptive, like when the Suns were -440 in game one vs an Andre Roy short Trailblazers, and they won. I think it's a no play, unless the Heat have never lost 8 in a row vs any team ever

lakerboy · 04-23-10, 03:38 PM

I am guessing this is SU correct?[/quote]

Yes su. And with Heat being -200 on the ml there isnt much more to know who is going to win.

SparJMU · 04-23-10, 03:39 PM

I think Suicide does make one key point here.....Boston was a very good team most of the year and then slowed down late. Maybe this was because of injuries, maybe they just got tired and lazy. But now Boston is fully healthy and playing at its full potential. Meanwhile Miami was a mediocre team mid-season and then went on a 10-1 run to against bad teams to get to the spot they are in today.

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Honestly forget the matchup. You aren't going to find a huge mismatch problem all of a sudden that Vegas doesn't know about. Vegas is telling you who is going to win, just trust them and know that they know 100 times more whatever you and I think we know. It's just one of those plays..

I'm not suggesting that I know more than the books. I'm saying that the books know how to get balanced action on the games and profit regardless of who wins the game. MIA -4 is a very fair line based on season stats, but I'm not one to accept stats without putting them into perspective.

And the playoffs are all about matchups...

HoulihansTX · 04-23-10, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

The Heat were 13-27 against teams this season that finished the year with a winning record, with 15 of those losses being by 10 points or more. Their final 9-1 stretch run were all against sub .500 teams, so IMO, they're very fortunate to not be facing Orlando or Cleveland right now.

The games I am talking about are @Home.

You know like everyone else Home/Away every team is different. With that Heat have shown to be capable of of beating the Elite.

lakerboy · 04-23-10, 03:50 PM

SK i got an idea for you pal. Take the celtics plus 4 and see what happens. You might be right.

HoulihansTX · 04-23-10, 03:54 PM

Just Live bet Celtics +14 in the 3rd. They are not covering the +4

sweetjones55 · 04-23-10, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I'm not suggesting that I know more than the books. I'm saying that the books know how to get balanced action on the games and profit regardless of who wins the game. MIA -4 is a very fair line based on season stats, but I'm not one to accept stats without putting them into perspective.

And the playoffs are all about matchups...

Vegas doesn't want to balance the action this game. They got 60% of the public on Boston and moved the line from +3 Boston to +4 Boston to get more of the public on Boston. If the wanted balanced action they wouldn't have made the Heat a four point favorite after Boston just whooped them, if you don't understand this then you shouldn't be betting this game.

nikeboyz · 04-23-10, 03:59 PM

+4 is for me

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Vegas doesn't want to balance the action this game. They got 60% of the public on Boston and moved the line from +3 Boston to +4 Boston to get more of the public on Boston. If the wanted balanced action they wouldn't have made the Heat a four point favorite after Boston just whooped them, if you don't understand this then you shouldn't be betting this game.

Why not? Based on season stats MIA -4 is very fair, and exactly what my model came up with. However, because of the nature of the playoffs where the teams play at least 4 games in a row against the same opponent, the books do not have the luxury of deviating far from where a fair line should lie and imposing much opinion on the lines.

At the current 60-40 split on the line in public bets, a volume of over 20,000 bets, and the early sharp action on the Heat moving the line within the first hour of its release but not since then, I can't imagine the total money on each side can be that unbalanced right now. If all the sharp money is on Miami, do you really think the average bet size on the Heat is only 1.5 times the average bet on the Celtics? Which side actually has more money on it?

BIGDAY · 04-23-10, 04:28 PM

How I figure it...

I honestly believe that either team can win this game. I went back and forth all day today. I was going to call it a no bet because of it... Then I decided if I was so back and forth, that there may be some value on the Boston ML at +165 as they are very capible of winning this game. I believe Garnet will be the defensive factor in this game.

Just my take.

Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the game!

wrongturn · 04-23-10, 04:35 PM

It depends on how well rest of Miami team play beside D-Wade. But I think Boston has the right strategy to keep other players from getting hot. So if successful, it could frustrate Wade at end no matter how well he plays. Boston has value here.

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 04:37 PM

PS: Thanks to everyone above for the input. I already made my plays overnight, but was looking for some solid discussion on the game. Would love to see some more opinions.

My Booked Plays

BOS ML (+165) x4
BOS 1H ML (+125) x2
1Q OVER 46 (-105) x2
1Q OVER 92 (-105) x3

I feel really strong about the 1H plays, but I'm still on the fence about the full game ML. I figure at worst I'll have the opportunity to hedge out during the game on the dog ML...

playa420 · 04-23-10, 04:38 PM

Tough game to call. The Celtics have been extremely inconsistent all year, and teams down 0-2 usually do really good in the 3rd game. Plus the public loves the celtics and line has gone up 1.5 points

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by playa420

Tough game to call. The Celtics have been extremely inconsistent all year, and teams down 0-2 usually do really good in the 3rd game. Plus the public loves the celtics and line has gone up 1.5 points

Can't really judge the line movement until you see how it closes.

SparJMU · 04-23-10, 04:48 PM

I am out for the weekend. I am sticking to the Heat ML for a small bet tonight. Bottom line is these two teams are relatively even matched, and MIA needs it more.

Good luck to everyone.

BIGDAY · 04-23-10, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

How I figure it...

I honestly believe that either team can win this game. I went back and forth all day today. I was going to call it a no bet because of it... Then I decided if I was so back and forth, that there may be some value on the Boston ML at +165 as they are very capible of winning this game. I believe Garnet will be the defensive factor in this game.

Just my take.

Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the game!

Hate to say it, but this is EXACTLY how I saw this game play out. It was going to come down to the last shot. Value with the ML on Boston. Hope a few cashed in with me!

SparJMU · 04-23-10, 08:55 PM

AWESOME game, and about dead even. Haslem and Wade missed, Pierce didn't.

BIGDAY · 04-23-10, 09:00 PM

Don't know about anyone else but that was very good game to watch! Both teams had their chances. Great Game!

sweetjones55 · 04-24-10, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Why not? Based on season stats MIA -4 is very fair, and exactly what my model came up with. However, because of the nature of the playoffs where the teams play at least 4 games in a row against the same opponent, the books do not have the luxury of deviating far from where a fair line should lie and imposing much opinion on the lines.

At the current 60-40 split on the line in public bets, a volume of over 20,000 bets, and the early sharp action on the Heat moving the line within the first hour of its release but not since then, I can't imagine the total money on each side can be that unbalanced right now. If all the sharp money is on Miami, do you really think the average bet size on the Heat is only 1.5 times the average bet on the Celtics? Which side actually has more money on it?

Nice hit on this game.. I never saw your question but with all the money on Boston ML, they badly wanted Miami to win.. They even offered Boston -1 +170 at half, Vegas made it very obvious that they thought Miami was going to win at half with that line

shhplit · 04-24-10, 02:53 AM

paul pierce strikes back!