Dwyane Wade, Heat try their luck in Boston
The Celtics' late-season slump dropped them to fourth in the Eastern Conference, meaning a first-round win over the Heat earns a second round matchup with the Cavs. The good news is Boston is a solid favorite to at least get to Round 2 with its home-court edge over Miami who failed to beat the C's during the regular season. Game 1 Tips from the TD Garden Saturday night with ESPN on the broadcast chores.
Home-court advantage.
The Boston Celtics have it, at least for the first round of the NBA playoffs. But that’s by far the most important round to enjoy the comforts of home.
John Hollinger, our patron saint of advanced hoops analysis, has looked at the data and uncovered this tasty morsel: When the team with home-court advantage has won the regular-season series against its opponent, it has also won the playoff series 41 times in a row, dating back to 1998.
The Celtics (50-32 SU, 33-47-2 ATS) can personally attest to the importance of playing at the TD Garden. In their championship run of 2008, they lost all three of their road games to the Atlanta Hawks SU and ATS in the first round. Then the same thing happened in the second round against the Cleveland Cavaliers. And last year, Chicago took two of three from the Celtics at the United Center to force yet another Game 7 at the Garden.
So here we are again with Boston enjoying home-court advantage in the first round. That’s bad news for the Miami Heat (47-35 SU, 42-39-1 ATS), who lost all three of their regular-season matchups against the Celtics at 2-1 ATS. The Heat carry a series price of +170, and the betting odds for Saturday’s series opener have Boston (-200 series price) laying 4½ points at home.
I know my money will be on the Celtics to win the series. But what about the spread? Boston has been getting progressively chalkier since the Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were formed:
2007-08: 66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS
2008-09: 62-20 SU, 43-39 ATS
2009-10: 50-32 SU, 33-47-2 ATS
In the 2008 playoffs, the Celtics were 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS at the Garden. In 2009, they fell to 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS, covering just one of their four home games versus the Bulls in that epic series. Expectations are a lot lower for the C’s in 2010. The Game 1 spread two years ago against Atlanta was 15 points; against Chicago, it was 8.5 points.
The market is also showing a lot of confidence in a Miami team that finished the season 12-1 SU and 8-4-1 ATS. Star power goes a long way, and Dwyane Wade (28.10 PER) is the biggest star on either team now that the Big Three are all north of 30 years old. However, the talent level on the Heat roster drops dramatically after Wade. Jermaine O’Neal (17.92 PER) had a nice season and stayed healthy enough to play 70 games. Michael Beasley (16.16 PER) can score, and Quentin Richardson (39.7 percent) can hit the open 3-pointer from the wing. That’s pretty much all the Heat are bringing to the table.
Miami’s biggest weakness this season has been at point guard. Former Kansas product Mario Chalmers (10.74 PER) lost his starting job to the sophomore jinx. The Heat gave Rafer Alston (8.26 PER) a second tour of duty, but he was awful and left the team for personal reasons. That leaves Carlos Arroyo (12.79 PER) starting at the 1-spot, but in the end, none of these three gentlemen was able to stop Rajon Rondo (19.18 PER) this year:
November 29: 13 points, 11 assists
January 6: 25 points, eight assists
February 3: 22 points, 14 assists
If that weren’t enough, the Celtics added Nate Robinson (16.41 PER) before the trade deadline to give them two point guards who are better than any guard Miami can throw at them – except for Wade, that is. He proved in 2006 that he could lead his team to the top of the mountain, but that championship roster also had Shaquille O’Neal (24.47 PER) at center and Jason Williams (15.04 PER) at point guard. That was so long ago, we might as well be talking about Crockett and Tubbs.
The Celtics' late-season slump dropped them to fourth in the Eastern Conference, meaning a first-round win over the Heat earns a second round matchup with the Cavs. The good news is Boston is a solid favorite to at least get to Round 2 with its home-court edge over Miami who failed to beat the C's during the regular season. Game 1 Tips from the TD Garden Saturday night with ESPN on the broadcast chores.
Home-court advantage.
The Boston Celtics have it, at least for the first round of the NBA playoffs. But that’s by far the most important round to enjoy the comforts of home.
John Hollinger, our patron saint of advanced hoops analysis, has looked at the data and uncovered this tasty morsel: When the team with home-court advantage has won the regular-season series against its opponent, it has also won the playoff series 41 times in a row, dating back to 1998.
The Celtics (50-32 SU, 33-47-2 ATS) can personally attest to the importance of playing at the TD Garden. In their championship run of 2008, they lost all three of their road games to the Atlanta Hawks SU and ATS in the first round. Then the same thing happened in the second round against the Cleveland Cavaliers. And last year, Chicago took two of three from the Celtics at the United Center to force yet another Game 7 at the Garden.
So here we are again with Boston enjoying home-court advantage in the first round. That’s bad news for the Miami Heat (47-35 SU, 42-39-1 ATS), who lost all three of their regular-season matchups against the Celtics at 2-1 ATS. The Heat carry a series price of +170, and the betting odds for Saturday’s series opener have Boston (-200 series price) laying 4½ points at home.
I know my money will be on the Celtics to win the series. But what about the spread? Boston has been getting progressively chalkier since the Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were formed:
2007-08: 66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS
2008-09: 62-20 SU, 43-39 ATS
2009-10: 50-32 SU, 33-47-2 ATS
In the 2008 playoffs, the Celtics were 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS at the Garden. In 2009, they fell to 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS, covering just one of their four home games versus the Bulls in that epic series. Expectations are a lot lower for the C’s in 2010. The Game 1 spread two years ago against Atlanta was 15 points; against Chicago, it was 8.5 points.
The market is also showing a lot of confidence in a Miami team that finished the season 12-1 SU and 8-4-1 ATS. Star power goes a long way, and Dwyane Wade (28.10 PER) is the biggest star on either team now that the Big Three are all north of 30 years old. However, the talent level on the Heat roster drops dramatically after Wade. Jermaine O’Neal (17.92 PER) had a nice season and stayed healthy enough to play 70 games. Michael Beasley (16.16 PER) can score, and Quentin Richardson (39.7 percent) can hit the open 3-pointer from the wing. That’s pretty much all the Heat are bringing to the table.
Miami’s biggest weakness this season has been at point guard. Former Kansas product Mario Chalmers (10.74 PER) lost his starting job to the sophomore jinx. The Heat gave Rafer Alston (8.26 PER) a second tour of duty, but he was awful and left the team for personal reasons. That leaves Carlos Arroyo (12.79 PER) starting at the 1-spot, but in the end, none of these three gentlemen was able to stop Rajon Rondo (19.18 PER) this year:
November 29: 13 points, 11 assists
January 6: 25 points, eight assists
February 3: 22 points, 14 assists
If that weren’t enough, the Celtics added Nate Robinson (16.41 PER) before the trade deadline to give them two point guards who are better than any guard Miami can throw at them – except for Wade, that is. He proved in 2006 that he could lead his team to the top of the mountain, but that championship roster also had Shaquille O’Neal (24.47 PER) at center and Jason Williams (15.04 PER) at point guard. That was so long ago, we might as well be talking about Crockett and Tubbs.
