[COLOR=#000000 !important]Hi, I'm new here but have been using a combination mathematical and "human" strategy for my past years NBA and NHL picks with some success. Please give me some feedback on it's feasibility for sports in general and other strategies for SBR. Basically I use current data to compare two team's current league rankings in certain categories, such as the example of NBA Miami vs Phi April 12. Adding the rankings for each particular team together we arrive at Miami 94 and Philly 127. These rankings include overall offense, overall defense, etc-you've all seen them I'm sure. "Better" teams will naturally have a lower total number and the comparison will give a confirmation of a reasonable spread. A difference of above twenty-five or so can be a rough indication of a four point spread.
The human factor involves injuries (such as TO losing Bosh), current streaks, historical performance comparisons and particular team's performance at home and away. Typically in the NBA we see home team's largely favored so this can be accounted for in creating a spread, although in the case of Philly their home record does not seem to give them an advantage so this will be factored. This method may seem somewhat simplistic but it has given me at least an easily factored numeric baseline comparison of teams while allowing for a more subjective human feel. Please let me know what you think of this strategy for all sports and ways it can be improved. My dream would be able to create an algorithim with weighting given for rankings, home/road performance, etc.
Good luck to all and hopefully this post is within the prescribed guidelines. Bigsmitty[/COLOR]
The human factor involves injuries (such as TO losing Bosh), current streaks, historical performance comparisons and particular team's performance at home and away. Typically in the NBA we see home team's largely favored so this can be accounted for in creating a spread, although in the case of Philly their home record does not seem to give them an advantage so this will be factored. This method may seem somewhat simplistic but it has given me at least an easily factored numeric baseline comparison of teams while allowing for a more subjective human feel. Please let me know what you think of this strategy for all sports and ways it can be improved. My dream would be able to create an algorithim with weighting given for rankings, home/road performance, etc.
Good luck to all and hopefully this post is within the prescribed guidelines. Bigsmitty[/COLOR]